Cubs Video
When the Cubs signed Craig Counsell to a five-year, $40-million contract less than a month ago, the assumption among many media members and fans was that it signaled the team would go on a spending spree this offseason--hat President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer must have “promised” Counsell something big to lure him to Chicago. Almost from the moment Counsell signed, the talk about what the Cubs might be willing to do this offseason began to center around highly-coveted free agents such as two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani and Japanese pitching sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or a trade for San Diego outfielder Juan Soto.
But did Counsell’s signing signal that the Cubs planned to be more aggressive this offseason than previously believed, or did Hoyer bring in the former Brewers manager as part of what he hoped would be a series of lesser moves to make the team better, with the possibility for a big signing only if all the pieces were to come together amid a highly competitive marketplace?
The move 90 miles south made sense for Counsell regardless of the answer to that question, given the size of his contract; his desire to stay rooted in the Midwest; and the lure of a new challenge. He also seemed to relish the possibility of working with more available resources, but that could be true without the investment being on the scale of committing hundreds of millions of dollars to land a free agent like Ohtani or Yamamoto.
Estimates for what it might take to sign Ohtani, who will play much of next year at age 29, have been as high as 10 years, $600 million, while the general consensus on Yamamoto (who will play most of next year at just 25) is that he will top $200 million in guaranteed money. By contrast, the largest contract the Cubs have ever given out is the eight-year, $184-million deal they doled out to Jason Heyward prior to their 2016 World Series-winning season.
Since taking over for Theo Epstein, Hoyer has preached patience and “intelligent spending,” while always keeping the door open for big signings, such as the seven-year, $177-million one that brought Dansby Swanson to Chicago in 2023. In truth, Hoyer has signaled that getting the roster to where he wants it will likely take two offseasons, instead of one, giving the Cubs a chance to see how some of their top prospects develop over the course of 2024.
These include Pete Crow-Armstrong, who seems like a good bet to patrol center field beginning as soon as Opening Day, and fellow prospect Matt Shaw, who has the potential to anchor third base in the not-too-distant future.
The general consensus is that the Cubs need a big bat; one or two pitchers who can move the needle in their starting rotation; and moves to improve the depth of their bullpen. Two obvious holes for 2024 are first and third base. So, should they commit the kind of money it would take to sign Ohtani, at the expense of making other needed moves? Even signing potential ace Yamamoto would leave some room for Hoyer to maneuver.
According to FanGraphs, the Cubs' 2024 payroll for luxury-tax purposes stands at about $186 million, give or take a few million. That leaves them roughly $50 million to spend before they exceed the first tier of the luxury tax and begin incurring penalties. They would have up to $70 million to spend before exceeding the second tier, meaning that unless they were willing to blow past the luxury tax threshold to the point where it would become difficult to eventually get back under the first tier and maintain financial flexibility going forward, Ohtani would likely eat up the majority of what they would have to spend this offseason.
What makes the two-time MVP different, unlike any free agent in baseball history, is that he is potentially a top-of-the-line starter and a difference-making bat. However, he is unlikely to pitch next year after having elbow surgery in late September, and it is unknown if he will be able to return to the level he previously attained as a hurler. Without the bonus of what he provides on the mound, Ohtani’s estimated FanGraphs/Steamer WAR projections for 2024 both stand at just 4.0–less than the same figures for the (possibly) departing Cody Bellinger provided in 2023 (4.1). Consider that Justin Steele projects to have a FanGraphs/Steamer WAR of 3.4 this season, while Nico Hoerner is at 3.1 or 3.2.
By comparison, Soto--a few years younger than Ohtani–has an expected value for the upcoming year of 6.6/6.4, while Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette is at 4.0/4.2. So, might the Cubs be better off cashing in on their prospect depth and trading for Soto, who has one year of control, or Bichette, who has two?
Baseball-Reference projects Ohtani to hit 35 homers this coming year and to hit .279 with an on-base percentage of .377, a slugging percentage of .572, and an OPS of .949. Those are lofty numbers, to be sure, but if signing Ohtani means that many other needs would remain unfilled, is it the right move?
The Cubs' history and raw numbers suggest that the answer is no, but the baseball landscape is changing. Many have pointed out that they need a megastar to build around, and Ohtani certainly offers that, with many potential benefits to the team beyond what he does on the field. Given that reality, might the Ricketts family and Hoyer rationalize that the Cubs need to change their thinking on payroll and take more risks to compete for top players going forward?
Time will tell, but for many Cubs fans right now, the answer is an unqualified “yes.” It's likely that Counsell, quietly, agrees.
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now