Bears Beat Byes…, But Lions?

[BigSlick]

I see no reason to not wait until we see the remaining 5 games (which I'm sure Kyle will ridicule, but so it goes) before making a full evaluation. But, because I guess I am compelled to play the Fields Homer/Devil's Advocate at the moment - he has gotten progressively better each year. 

This is passing over the last 3 years. His QB rating has moved from 73.2 to 85.2 to 92.3 He's improved by 10+ points each year. His completion percentage has moved up every year. His Int% has dropped each year.

His QBR (and I have only the vaguest notion of how its calculated) has waffled though - gone up, and then down. 

 

His adjusted passing (all graded with 100 as an average around the league) has all shown positive movement over the last 3 years as well: 

Of course, he's topping out around 100 (average) in many of these categories, and sub-100 by large margins in other categories (particularly sack rate). 

The data says he's a slightly above average QB at this exact moment. You may leverage that and say it'll keep going up over the next few years or you think he's topped out at his talent level. Both are reasonable conclusions to make. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

I hate the idea of Harbaugh for really only 1 reason: it could mean skipping Caleb and drafty McCarthy instead. If you have the oppertunity to draft the consensus #1 and you decide to draft QB, why down the ladder to someone not as highly regarded?

 

I don’t know that Harbaugh would do that, but it just seems like it’s very possible

Edited November 30, 2023 by minnesotacubsfan

[CubinNY]

Whoever runs “sports mockery” hates Justin Fields. Does anyone know what Kyle is doing these days?

[WrigleyField 22]

48 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I see no reason to not wait until we see the remaining 5 games (which I'm sure Kyle will ridicule, but so it goes) before making a full evaluation. But, because I guess I am compelled to play the Fields Homer/Devil's Advocate at the moment - he has gotten progressively better each year. 

This is passing over the last 3 years. His QB rating has moved from 73.2 to 85.2 to 92.3 He's improved by 10+ points each year. His completion percentage has moved up every year. His Int% has dropped each year.

His QBR (and I have only the vaguest notion of how its calculated) has waffled though - gone up, and then down. 

 

His adjusted passing (all graded with 100 as an average around the league) has all shown positive movement over the last 3 years as well: 

Of course, he's topping out around 100 (average) in many of these categories, and sub-100 by large margins in other categories (particularly sack rate). 

The data says he's a slightly above average QB at this exact moment. You may leverage that and say it'll keep going up over the next few years or you think he's topped out at his talent level. Both are reasonable conclusions to make. 

There is of course no rush to make any final decision on Justin. You don't have to be in or out or in the middle because none of those should impact how they approach the next 6 weeks.

 

That out of the way, 5 games can only do so much against the rest of the book of work.  It'd be foolish to let a barn burner run sway your opinion too wildly.  

 

What happens with the Car pick is going to influence their decision 10x more than what Fields does.  That's just the plain reality of it all, imo.

 

 

[WrigleyField 22]

23 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

I hate the idea of Harbaugh for really only 1 reason: it could mean skipping Caleb and drafty McCarthy instead. If you have the oppertunity to draft the consensus #1 and you decide to draft QB, why down the ladder to someone not as highly regarded?

 

I don’t know that Harbaugh would do that, but it just seems like it’s very possible

 

Harbaugh is kooky, not dumb.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

If the Packers got the #1 pick and passed over Caleb Williams and Drake Maye to stick with a running QB who's thrown for 300 yards ONE TIME in 35 starts and fumbles a lot, we'd be laughing our heads off. 

[Brian707]

25 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Harbaugh is kooky, not dumb.

Yeah and arguably he is the 2nd best Bears QB they have had since the television was invented. If he has a chance to draft a top QB he will 

[BigSlick]

59 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

There is of course no rush to make any final decision on Justin. You don't have to be in or out or in the middle because none of those should impact how they approach the next 6 weeks.

 

That out of the way, 5 games can only do so much against the rest of the book of work.  It'd be foolish to let a barn burner run sway your opinion too wildly.  

 

What happens with the Car pick is going to influence their decision 10x more than what Fields does.  That's just the plain reality of it all, imo.

 

 

I don't know if I agree. If Fields puts together 5 games of the caliber of the Detroit game (which isn't perfect but is overall, a B+ game in my estimation) or better, I don't think I draft a QB even if Carolina finishes last in the league. Anything short of that? Well, I probably go Williams/Maye. 

Part of the reason I'd go that way is that inconsistency is such a problem for Fields - and if he can show 5 good games in a row, that goes a long way for me thinking he can put together longer stretches of strong play and not just a blip here and there. 

Like - I feel like one has to view drafting a QB rather than utilizing the immense amount of value you can acquire when trading the 1st overall as a bit of a loss. It's not something you want to do - you're squandering so much potential value in terms of blue chip players you can use with it. However, that's also somewhat counterbalanced with the money you're saving on QB for several years. There's so many things to consider.

My evaluation also is that this team isn't that far away from contention. That may come at odds with many Bears fans opinions at this point. A new QB puts the team squarely back (stays?) in rebuilding mode. Montez Sweat is 28 years old in 2024. You'd be completely wasting his prime years. You're probably not having Jaylon Johnson when you're competitive again. Where will DJ Moore and Kmet be at? Lots of players that may not be in their prime or gone by the time you're good. Etc. 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by BigSlick

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Yeah and arguably he is the 2nd best Bears QB they have had since the television was invented. If he has a chance to draft a top QB he will 

3rd?

cutty

Jimmy Mac

harbaugh

 

[Brian707]

3 minutes ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

3rd?

cutty

Jimmy Mac

harbaugh

 

Yeah its a toss up between McMahon and Harbaugh. McMahon just could never stay healthy and was surrounded by a great team.

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, BigSlick said:

I don't know if I agree. If Fields puts together 5 games of the caliber of the Detroit game (which isn't perfect but is overall, a B+ game in my estimation) or better, I don't think I draft a QB even if Carolina finishes last in the league. Anything short of that? Well, I probably go Williams/Maye. 

Part of the reason I'd go that way is that inconsistency is such a problem for Fields - and if he can show 5 good games in a row, that goes a long way for me thinking he can put together longer stretches of strong play and not just a blip here and there. 

Like - I feel like one has to view drafting a QB rather than utilizing the immense amount of value you can acquire when trading the 1st overall as a bit of a loss. It's not something you want to do - you're squandering so much potential value in terms of blue chip players you can use with it. However, that's also somewhat counterbalanced with the money you're saving on QB for several years. There's so many things to consider.

My evaluation also is that this team isn't that far away from contention. That may come at odds with many Bears fans opinions at this point. A new QB puts the team squarely back (stays?) in rebuilding mode. Montez Sweat is 28 years old in 2024. You'd be completely wasting his prime years. You're probably not having Jaylon Johnson when you're competitive again. Where will DJ Moore and Kmet be at? Lots of players that may not be in their prime or gone by the time you're good. Etc. 

 

I know it's not a popular opinion, but even if Fields has that finish, I'm just taking a shotgun approach if I have pick #1 (and prob #2).  Throw on that 5th year option and start Fields for a least a year and slow develop Caleb as backup.  In 2025, reevaluate again.

[WrigleyField 22]

So apparently the popular talking point from many fans and even some media analysts is basically

 

1.  Justin Fields is a top 22 QB

2. QBs at the top of the draft are a crapshoot

3. You can find a QB later if Justin doesn't work out.

 

Do these idiots with their crapshoot odds realize it's still like 4x as likely to find a good QB in the top 5 than the other 250+ draft slots you might draft a QB.

Edited December 1, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[NorthsideAvenger]

NM. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by NorthsideAvenger

[CubinNY]

I didn’t watch the Seahawks/cowboys game, but apparently there were no punts by either team. How is that possible?

[BigbadB]

14 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

I know it's not a popular opinion, but even if Fields has that finish, I'm just taking a shotgun approach if I have pick #1 (and prob #2).  Throw on that 5th year option and start Fields for a least a year and slow develop Caleb as backup.  In 2025, reevaluate again.

While I have thought about the possibility of drafting QB and letting Fields play out his contract (or traded) until he's beat out by the draftee, I never thought about doing it with one of the top two QB's. I just can't imagine them going that route. Given their cap space, they could fill most of the remaining holes at starter jobs with free agent vets and go QB with the first pick and the best available WR with the other first rounder and then go for depth or future starters with their other picks. 

Seems more likely if they go with a QB with the first pick that Fields gets traded for whatever they can get. I'm still guessing you have to get a new OC to avoid a mutiny, regardless of who the head coach is. 

I had more of a vision that if the Bears weren't overly in on those top two QB's, they take the MHJ and then take the QB they like best out of the next tier. Then let Fields try again with his third OC or lose the job to the rookie.

I'm starting to lean towards take Williams and take the second best WR in the draft, even if it means trading back a bit with that second first rounder and then extend Moore until he's dead or retires. I'd probably look for an upgrade from Mooney in free agency while the rookie takes his lumps. That would also mean to me that Fields gets traded.

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

While I have thought about the possibility of drafting QB and letting Fields play out his contract (or traded) until he's beat out by the draftee, I never thought about doing it with one of the top two QB's. I just can't imagine them going that route. Given their cap space, they could fill most of the remaining holes at starter jobs with free agent vets and go QB with the first pick and the best available WR with the other first rounder and then go for depth or future starters with their other picks. 

Seems more likely if they go with a QB with the first pick that Fields gets traded for whatever they can get. I'm still guessing you have to get a new OC to avoid a mutiny, regardless of who the head coach is. 

I had more of a vision that if the Bears weren't overly in on those top two QB's, they take the MHJ and then take the QB they like best out of the next tier. Then let Fields try again with his third OC or lose the job to the rookie.

I'm starting to lean towards take Williams and take the second best WR in the draft, even if it means trading back a bit with that second first rounder and then extend Moore until he's dead or retires. I'd probably look for an upgrade from Mooney in free agency while the rookie takes his lumps. That would also mean to me that Fields gets traded.

Yes, I'm under no illusion they will do a shotgun approach. But I think in the "Justin balls out" hypothetical it's a valid idea.  But NFL FOs are just too conservative and only willing to try things that might fail in a specific way (usually passive failure).  Doing something proactive and failing is not allowed though.

 

Probably more plausible is just that Justin does well enough that the return on his trade is kind of decent.

 

If they are for some reason they aren't gonna trade him I think they need to trade down from one of those two picks and make sure to pick up extra 2025 and 2026 capital.  Even if that means it's the top pick and losing out on MHJ. At some point they'll likely need to be ready to have horsepower to trade back up for a QB.

 

The shotgun approach on a tier 2 QB (Daniels, Penix, McCarthy) is of course a possibility too, but if you've convinced yourself you can bridge Fields and develop a QB, I'd still say just go big on Caleb.  

 

But full disclosure, the absolute best thing about the shotgun approach would be the absolute Twitter mayhem on draft night.  80% of the fan base being ecstatic that Poles is all in on Fields and 20% being bummed he's out on QB, and then have tables flipped woipd be amazing for the TL. 🍿

Edited December 1, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[jersey cubs fan]

27 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yes, I'm under no illusion they will do a shotgun approach. But I think in the "Justin balls out" hypothetical it's a valid idea.  But NFL FOs are just too conservative and only willing to try things that might fail in a specific way (usually passive failure).  Doing something proactive and failing is not allowed though.

 

Probably more plausible is just that Justin does well enough that the return on his trade is kind of decent.

 

If they are for some reason they aren't gonna trade him I think they need to trade down from one of those two picks and make sure to pick up extra 2025 and 2026 capital.  Even if that means it's the top pick and losing out on MHJ. At some point they'll likely need to be ready to have horsepower to trade back up for a QB.

 

The shotgun approach on a tier 2 QB (Daniels, Penix, McCarthy) is of course a possibility too, but if you've convinced yourself you can bridge Fields and develop a QB, I'd still say just go big on Caleb.  

 

But full disclosure, the absolute best thing about the shotgun approach would be the absolute Twitter mayhem on draft night.  80% of the fan base being ecstatic that Poles is all in on Fields and 20% being bummed he's out on QB, and then have tables flipped woipd be amazing for the TL. 🍿

They absolutely should not trade up for a qb, ever. 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 minute ago, jersey cubs fan said:

They absolutely should not trade up for a qb, ever. 

And if they don't take a QB top 2 in this draft they most likely would need to in order to get a similar caliber QB prospect again.

 

QB is undoubtedly the one position you're allowed to trade up for.

[jersey cubs fan]

5 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

And if they don't take a QB top 2 in this draft they most likely would need to in order to get a similar caliber QB prospect again.

 

QB is undoubtedly the one position you're allowed to trade up for.

Some people are allowed to, the Bears are not. It does not work. 

[Soul]

The Bears traded up for Trubisky with Mahomes still on the board.  Panthers traded up for Bryce Young with Stroud still on the board.

Trading up to take a QB requires that the FO can identify the right QB to trade up for.  The Bears inspire zero confidence they can do that.  They should not trade up for QB.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Soul

[BigSlick]

The Trubisky pick occurred when I was barely paying attention to football and every time I'm reminded he was a 2nd overall pick I'm utterly stupefied 

[CubinNY]

13 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

The Trubisky pick occurred when I was barely paying attention to football and every time I'm reminded he was a 2nd overall pick I'm utterly stupefied 

The worst part is that they probably would have still gotten him even if they didn't trade up to get him, if I remember correctly. 

[BigSlick]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

The worst part is that they probably would have still gotten him even if they didn't trade up to get him, if I remember correctly. 

The best GMs negotiate against themselves

[WrigleyField 22]

36 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The worst part is that they probably would have still gotten him even if they didn't trade up to get him, if I remember correctly. 

There was some smoke about Cleveland trading up to 2. And Josh Lucas in one of his interviews alluded to that belief as well.   Not sure anyone from SF ever has or will confirm if any real offer was on the table though.

 

In any case there has been reporting that Mahomes and Trubisky were neck and neck in Bears org, so paying an insurance policy when that's your own internal evaluation and consensus boards were all split across 3 guys is obviously moronic.

Edited December 1, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[BigSlick]

Those Josh Lucas interviews are utterly fascinating. I've never heard an NFL executive be as open and honest as he was in talking about their process and reasoning for each decision they made. Every Bears fan should listen to them. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by BigSlick