Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

This from MLBTR is really good.  It's framed as about Bellinger but it runs through every team and you can get a sense for where any of the Boras guys would end up.

It mostly echoes what's been said here.  Cubs and Angels could fit any of the Boras guys, Giants can fit one but Bellinger would seem like the least likely fit.  Most of the other usual suspects are already running record high payrolls, and even if they did do a sneaky signing would probably grab a pitcher.

The Dbacks get mentioned as a sneaky fit, and that's intriguing.  They've got a bunch of money coming off the books next winter and a bunch of kids either just arrived or on the way to fill out their roster for cheap.  So if they're willing to get luxury tax adjacent this winter coming off their World Series run that feels pretty viable.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

34 minutes ago, The20thK said:

I just don’t see why the Cubs (or any team) would do this. 
 

If he gets $35m (as has been suggested) for the first year and is good, he opts out and we paid $35m for one year. But if he sucks, we are on the hook for 8 years? 
 

I think there are players out there that I might do that with… but Bellinger isn’t one of them. 

If Bellinger is real good and opts out, they got a good season out of Bellinger and at this stage in the offseason the money he was paid certainly didn't block other moves, so that's a very good result.

If he's not good enough to opt out that's less ideal, but there's a huge spectrum of production and his AAV is at the Taillon level so as long as he doesn't completely crater that's perfectly fine to want him around.

 

The main problems with this are that you don't really see this duration combined with 1 year opt outs, normally it's more like 5 years with a 1 year opt out or if it's a longer deal then the opt out is after 3 or something.  This is as much a generic hedge against injury/age than a statement about Bellinger.  Also I don't think there's any real chance Bellinger would take an 8/140 guarantee, opt outs or no.  If he has any reasonable deal of ~5 years(e.g. 5/125) he's more likely to gravitate to that or go for a purely shorter deal with opt outs.

[imb]

On 2/16/2024 at 3:39 AM, The20thK said:

Agreed.

i have no desire to talk politics but im not going to sit quietly while others do so…

yes you do, stupid

[Illiterate Scholar]

The number I've been thinking is something like a front loaded 4/114 with a player opt out or 2. 114 beats Lee by $1 million which Boras likes to do, so he can still claim Bellinger was the highest paid CF of the off-season or whatever. 

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

The number I've been thinking is something like a front loaded 4/114 with a player opt out or 2. 114 beats Lee by $1 million which Boras likes to do, so he can still claim Bellinger was the highest paid CF of the off-season or whatever. 

Yeah four years feels right.  The Correa deal gets thrown around, by myself included, but he was a substantially better player.  $35M per year AND an opt out after year one is a thing a 6 WAR player can ask for, but even the most optimistic folks agree Bellinger's not close to that guy anymore.  Four years with early opt outs gets Bellinger into 9 figures on a more reasonable annual salary, and in the event he doesn't opt out makes it so he is set up to leave the winter after Happ and Seiya.  Obviously in a scenario where he doesn't opt out he's not playing great, but still turning over an entire starting outfield in one winter is extremely dicey.

[Derwood]

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah four years feels right.  The Correa deal gets thrown around, by myself included, but he was a substantially better player.  $35M per year AND an opt out after year one is a thing a 6 WAR player can ask for, but even the most optimistic folks agree Bellinger's not close to that guy anymore.  Four years with early opt outs gets Bellinger into 9 figures on a more reasonable annual salary, and in the event he doesn't opt out makes it so he is set up to leave the winter after Happ and Seiya.  Obviously in a scenario where he doesn't opt out he's not playing great, but still turning over an entire starting outfield in one winter is extremely dicey.

4 with opt outs sound right. But I think $114M is a bit much(annually) If he has to get more then do 5/$130 with the opt outs. Or maybe do something like they did with Imanaga. Maybe they can structure something where the final number is at the $170M mark so Boras can save face.  But realistically know the Cubs won’t go that far and that much so allow Bellinger to opt out. A similar type of complicated deal. As as Derwood just shared: DO SOMETHING!!!! 

Edited February 17, 2024 by Rcal10

[Outshined_One]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

As as Derwood just shared: DO SOMETHING!!!! 

I initially read this as, "As a Derwood just shared," and my first thought was, aw horsefeathers, there's more than one?

/Love you buddy

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Dbacks get mentioned as a sneaky fit, and that's intriguing.  They've got a bunch of money coming off the books next winter and a bunch of kids either just arrived or on the way to fill out their roster for cheap.  So if they're willing to get luxury tax adjacent this winter coming off their World Series run that feels pretty viable.

 

 

 

As with several of these moves that have happened over the last few weeks(Toronto, Philly), this doesn't completely close the door on Bellinger, but they are not the types of moves that you make when you are aggressively pursuing him and getting Boras to say yes/exceed an interested incumbent like the Cubs.

[Derwood]

27 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I initially read this as, "As a Derwood just shared," and my first thought was, aw horsefeathers, there's more than one?

/Love you buddy

 

one of us

One of us

ONE of us

ONE OF US

[Tim]

2 hours ago, imb said:

yes you do, stupid

I said enough with the politics.

I guess I should have added enough with the insults, too.

[Sammy Sofa]

23 minutes ago, Tim said:

I said enough with the politics.

[ToolDRT]

Really hoping Carl Edward’s Jr has a good spring. Have always been fond of that guy and I’m excited to see him back in cubbies blue. 

[CubbyBlue2008]

 

[NOLA]

I guess this is as good a place as any to ask this, but are there any good Cubs accounts to follow on Threads?  The guys I used to follow on Twitter don’t post much.

[Backtobanks]

9 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

 

No wonder he couldn't play 3B, he wasn't concentrating.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

 

This would be  great development if he could do it. Opens up the idea of signing the best bat available, regardless of position. JDM would work well if Morel can play 3rd. Belt would be my second choice, and probably 1A if the Cubs don’t get Bellinger. 

[Post Count Padder]

That could be just for sake of flexibility. Counsell hasn't worked with Morel yet, wants to see what he can do. If Morel can be anything more than strictly a DH, it helps the roster.

[Banedon]

Counsell's actual words...

 

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Banedon said:

Counsell's actual words...

 

Sounds like he wants him to stick with the position. Some consistency at the position makes me feel he is hoping this could be where he is used. Which would be awesome. 

[CubbyBlue2008]

Bellinger and Martinez to finish the offseason and let’s roll.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, NOLA said:

I guess this is as good a place as any to ask this, but are there any good Cubs accounts to follow on Threads?  The guys I used to follow on Twitter don’t post much.

Threads?  I didn't know that was still a thing.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, CubbyBlue2008 said:

Bellinger and Martinez to finish the offseason and let’s roll.

That would be an awesome end to the off season. 

[ToolDRT]

If Morel can handle 3rd 🤤🤤🤤

[CubbyBlue2008]

39 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That would be an awesome end to the off season. 

Yep. It allows PCA to spend more time in AAA and potentially come back up for injuries. The lineup is deep and dangerous. Potentially high upside with Morel and Busch as well. I’d be very excited.