Cubs offseason chit chat...

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Underwhelming for sure, but if they add Bellinger it's okish I suppose. It really is a shame though, they had a chance to establish themselves as the clear cut power of the NL Central and instead they've chosen to ignore that opportunity. 

so, piss down the leg it is

 

sigh

 

 

[BobbyD3]

9 hours ago, Rob said:

Decades ago, NSBB was founded as a bastion for intelligent discussion of the Cubs. Cubs.com was full of idiots spouting off about pitcher wins and RBIs, but here we'd see a bunch of very smart posters adopting basic sabermetrics and graciously instructing others on how baseball truly worked. It was the dawning of a new age. People came here to learn and grow alongside the game.

Then the site sort of petered out, alongside just about every other internet message board. But those who remained typically had a deep interest in what had attracted us to the site in the first place - the presence of clever and intelligent posters.

So no, nobody was baiting you. It's just that the longstanding posters on this board expect people to be smart. And demographically speaking, that means we aren't used to seeing Trump supporters on this board.

Squally couldn't have been baiting you - I'd be surprised if he knew you even exist.

So, over half of America's population are stupid?  Perhaps "deplorable" would fit better, as Mrs. Clinton once referred to them.   

[17 Seconds]

Just now, BobbyD3 said:

So, over half of America's population are stupid? 

way more than that

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, BobbyD3 said:

So, over half of America's population are stupid?  Perhaps "deplorable" would fit better, as Mrs. Clinton once referred to them.   

I'm reminded of the old George Carlin bit. “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

So yeah, at least half of America's population is stupid.

But since you seem to be under the illusion that "over half of America's population" voted for and/or likes Trump, that's unequivocally untrue. He lost the popular vote both times. And even if you want to pretend nonvoters like him, his approval rate has never eclipsed 50%. (Biden's did, though). So no, you aren't in some sort of silent majority either. The only reason your guy won is because 200+ years ago the founding fathers made some concessions to slave states to get them in the union. That concession is called the electoral college, and it continues to give racists a disproportionately large say in our democracy.

As to the deplorable comment, I tried very hard not to judge those who voted for Trump in 2016. He was a bit of a wildcard -- I could see how somebody could anticipate all sorts of different policy outcomes. He was clearly unqualified, but perhaps he was going to let qualified people make decisions for him and merely act as a figurehead/manager.

But we know who he is now. He's a racist, misogynistic, narcissist who is willing to burn the legacy of American democracy to the ground if it means he can escape the consequences of his actions. Anybody who continues to support Donald Trump is, in fact, either completely divorced from reality or any sense of ethics. Or both.

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Underwhelming for sure, but if they add Bellinger it's okish I suppose. It really is a shame though, they had a chance to establish themselves as the clear cut power of the NL Central and instead they've chosen to ignore that opportunity. 

I’m going to call them  the Discount Dodgers until further notice.

they have aspirations but not the gravity. 

[squally1313]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Underwhelming for sure, but if they add Bellinger it's okish I suppose. It really is a shame though, they had a chance to establish themselves as the clear cut power of the NL Central and instead they've chosen to ignore that opportunity. 

Besides Ohtani (plus more), there really wasn’t a likely path to becoming the ‘clear cut power of the NL central’ in this single offseason. Some of it was always going to have to come from within, and obviously still can. I’ll be pretty disappointed if they don’t spend the last $30m or so everyone has collectively agreed is ‘in the budget’, but I don’t think Chapman or bellinger are these huge difference makers, nor do I think there really were any realistic ones outside of shohei. 

[CubinNY]

What about Crawford as a stopgap 3rd baseman? 

[Bertz]

Ken's notes have two interesting bits, one potentially good one potentially bad. 

First the bad, the Blue Jays are playing in the same LHB (or failing that a RHB who can hit RHP) waters as the Cubs.  He doesn't tie the Jays to Bellinger, but it's hard to read this and not think, dollars aside, Cody still makes a ton of sense there post Keirmaier.

Quote

 

The Blue Jays started their offseason by pursuing Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, two of the best left-handed hitters in the game. They recently courted Joc Pederson, who chose to stay west and sign with the Diamondbacks. And now their search for additional left-handed hitting is down to who exactly?

Outside of Cody Bellinger, the list of remaining left-handed hitting free agents includes Brandon Belt, Eddie Rosario, Mike Moustakas, Joey Votto and switch-hitter Aaron Hicks. If the Jays do not want to pay for Bellinger – they already are up against the first luxury-tax threshold, and signing Bellinger could take them past the second – perhaps they will just acquire a right-handed hitter who can handle right-handed pitching instead.

Among the possibilities:

J.D. Martinez (.880 OPS vs. righties last season, .846 for his career)

Justin Turner (.766, .830)

Matt Chapman (.722, .783)

Jorge Soler (.788, .774)

Tommy Pham (.768, .767)

Adam Duvall (.863, .760)

Turner, 39, is the oldest of those players, followed by Martinez, 36. Chapman, who turns 31 on April 28, is the youngest, and probably will be the most expensive.

None of those solutions would resemble Ohtani, Soto or, even with the questions about whether his resurgence is sustainable, Bellinger. But the Jays, whose only additions thus far are infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa (two years, $15 million) and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (one year, $10.5 million), are one of several teams that still needs to do something big.

If anything, they could use two bats, a DH and an outfielder. At this point, a continuing focus on left-handed hitters almost certainly would be too narrow.

 

The good news is on the Jordan Montgomery front.  Namely it's hard to say who has the appetite to pull him in.  The Yankees/Angels have been connected to Snell, while the Rangers and Red Sox have generally been tied to Montgomery.  Well....

Quote

 

The deferrals in Robertson’s deal are indicative of the reluctance of Rangers ownership to commit short-term money while their local-television revenue remains uncertain for 2024 and beyond.

A potential reunion between the Rangers and free-agent left-hander Jordan Montgomery remains on hold, perhaps even out of reach. As the delay continues, the opportunity exists for another club to jump into the fray. And it’s almost inexplicable the Red Sox are not seizing the moment.

Montgomery is familiar with Boston, and not only from his days pitching for the Yankees. He has spent the offseason in the city while his wife, McKenzie, continues her residency in dermatology at an area hospital.

The Red Sox, though, continue to show little inclination to spend big. Team president Sam Kennedy told reporters at the team’s recent Winter Weekend event that the team’s payroll “probably would be lower” than in 2023.

 

 

[Illiterate Scholar]

46 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Ken's notes have two interesting bits, one potentially good one potentially bad. 

First the bad, the Blue Jays are playing in the same LHB (or failing that a RHB who can hit RHP) waters as the Cubs.  He doesn't tie the Jays to Bellinger, but it's hard to read this and not think, dollars aside, Cody still makes a ton of sense there post Keirmaier.

The good news is on the Jordan Montgomery front.  Namely it's hard to say who has the appetite to pull him in.  The Yankees/Angels have been connected to Snell, while the Rangers and Red Sox have generally been tied to Montgomery.  Well....

 

As a baseball player (ignoring roster fit, though he still fits) for 2024 and beyond, I think I like Montgomery the most of the Boras 4, so I wouldn't complain if Jed ended up shifting focus to him. The offense would probably end up a bat short, but I'd feel really good about the pitching. 

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

As a baseball player (ignoring roster fit, though he still fits) for 2024 and beyond, I think I like Montgomery the most of the Boras 4, so I wouldn't complain if Jed ended up shifting focus to him. The offense would probably end up a bat short, but I'd feel really good about the pitching. 

Yeah the pitching staff feels like it's a #2 starter away from being stellar.  Bellinger being a young athletic position player will likely age the best of the four (probably by quite a bit at that), but purely for 2024 I think he's actually the worst fit after the team added Busch.

[Backtobanks]

44 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah the pitching staff feels like it's a #2 starter away from being stellar.  Bellinger being a young athletic position player will likely age the best of the four (probably by quite a bit at that), but purely for 2024 I think he's actually the worst fit after the team added Busch.

Except we're not sure what we're going to get from Busch offensively and defensively.  As for a #2 starter, Bieber has been available for quite a while and shouldn't cost too much in the way of prospects.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Backtobanks

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Except we're not sure what we're going to get from Busch offensively and defensively.  As for a #2 starter, Bieber has been available for quite a while and shouldn't cost too much in the way of prospects.

Sign Chapman, trade morel+ for Bieber, if there’s anything left take your pick/the cheapest of belt/turner. 
Happ, PCA, Seiya, Chapman, Dansby, Nico, Busch, Yan, DH/bench is Amaya, belt/turner, canario, tauchman, wisdom/madrigal

Steele, Bieber, imanaga, taillon, wicks, Hendricks 

adbert, neris, Assad, smyly, leiter, merryweather, almonte

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I still have a hard time thinking the Jays have a Bellinger-sized AAV in them.  They're already a whisker over the LT, it strikes me as unlikely they're going to shoot into the 20+ overage bracket(with a higher surcharge since they exceeded last year) to set a new all-time high in payroll just to marginalize Kiermeier, who they paid a tidy amount(10.5M AAV) to a month ago.

But also, I just can't see Montgomery's market falling enough to fall into a place where the Cubs will be aggressive enough to win the race.  Maybe if somehow Bellinger and Chapman don't work out and Montgomery's still on the market, but it would be very against form to have another longer term deal to a 30+ SP.  Value is value and all that, but I have to think there's probably multiple trade contingencies that would come first.  Maybe it's my bias against Montgomery as a player but I think any of the ties made to the Cubs(especially post-Imanaga) are agent-based bluster to try and move his market.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I’m going to call them  the Discount Dodgers until further notice.

they have aspirations but not the gravity. 

Aspirations for 88 wins

[Stratos]

Ok so post Neris are we now in the 6th or 7th inning of our offseason?

[BobbyD3]

4 hours ago, Rob said:

I'm reminded of the old George Carlin bit. “Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

So yeah, at least half of America's population is stupid.

But since you seem to be under the illusion that "over half of America's population" voted for and/or likes Trump, that's unequivocally untrue. He lost the popular vote both times. And even if you want to pretend nonvoters like him, his approval rate has never eclipsed 50%. (Biden's did, though). So no, you aren't in some sort of silent majority either. The only reason your guy won is because 200+ years ago the founding fathers made some concessions to slave states to get them in the union. That concession is called the electoral college, and it continues to give racists a disproportionately large say in our democracy.

As to the deplorable comment, I tried very hard not to judge those who voted for Trump in 2016. He was a bit of a wildcard -- I could see how somebody could anticipate all sorts of different policy outcomes. He was clearly unqualified, but perhaps he was going to let qualified people make decisions for him and merely act as a figurehead/manager.

But we know who he is now. He's a racist, misogynistic, narcissist who is willing to burn the legacy of American democracy to the ground if it means he can escape the consequences of his actions. Anybody who continues to support Donald Trump is, in fact, either completely divorced from reality or any sense of ethics. Or both.

I have no words.  You live in your world, I will live in mine.  That seems like the American thing to do.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Sign Chapman, trade morel+ for Bieber, if there’s anything left take your pick/the cheapest of belt/turner. 
Happ, PCA, Seiya, Chapman, Dansby, Nico, Busch, Yan, DH/bench is Amaya, belt/turner, canario, tauchman, wisdom/madrigal

Steele, Bieber, imanaga, taillon, wicks, Hendricks 

adbert, neris, Assad, smyly, leiter, merryweather, almonte

I don’t think 1 year of Bieber cost Morel+. If it does I wouldn’t trade Morel. I wouldn’t trade Morel for Bieber straight up. I actually like the idea of signing Chapman and another bat and trading Morel for a pitcher. Just not for 1 year of Bieber. I would rather a guy with some team control. Maybe Cabrera? Like I said, like the plan just not the pitcher we get back for Morel. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Ok so post Neris are we now in the 6th or 7th inning of our offseason?

Bottom 8

[squally1313]

32 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think 1 year of Bieber cost Morel+. If it does I wouldn’t trade Morel. I wouldn’t trade Morel for Bieber straight up. I actually like the idea of signing Chapman and another bat and trading Morel for a pitcher. Just not for 1 year of Bieber. I would rather a guy with some team control. Maybe Cabrera? Like I said, like the plan just not the pitcher we get back for Morel. 

I get your point but we also thought Morel was enough for Soto and the Yankees package was a lot more valuable than that. If just morel for Bieber blows them away, then try to get naylor or prospect depth back too. Chapman to a multi year deal and Nico as the second baseman for the rest of the decade…I’m not going to put a ton of value on a .320 OBP guy who can only DH for the foreseeable future. 

[Rob]

1 hour ago, BobbyD3 said:

I have no words.  You live in your world, I will live in mine.  That seems like the American thing to do.

You can continue to live in your own little world. The rest of us will continue to live in reality.

[Backtobanks]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I get your point but we also thought Morel was enough for Soto and the Yankees package was a lot more valuable than that. If just morel for Bieber blows them away, then try to get naylor or prospect depth back too. Chapman to a multi year deal and Nico as the second baseman for the rest of the decade…I’m not going to put a ton of value on a .320 OBP guy who can only DH for the foreseeable future. 

Yeah according to MLBTV Morel is a huge overpay for Bieber alone and adding Naylor would be great (and still an overpay), but convincing the Guardians to give up one of their offensive stars could be a problem.  Try Wisdom, Mervis, and Morel for Naylor and Bieber as a basis and then tweak each side with prospects.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Yeah according to MLBTV Morel is a huge overpay for Bieber alone and adding Naylor would be great (and still an overpay), but convincing the Guardians to give up one of their offensive stars could be a problem.  Try Wisdom, Mervis, and Morel for Naylor and Bieber as a basis and then tweak each side with prospects.

That works. That makes much more sense. Guardians might be willing to move Naylor due to salary and they have a top prospect who can play 1st. Give them Morel and Wisdom and maybe a lower end prospect for Bieber and Naylor. Still an overpay, but one that is ok. Or just Cabrera fro Morel. That is close . 

[CubinNY]

Stop trying to trade Morel. 

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Stop trying to trade Morel. 

As a man with no defensive home and a good but not great bat, Morel is just an incredibly frustrating guy to plan around.

If he walked more / struck out less, he'd be easy to pencil in as a great DH. But most teams without great DH options simply use the DH to rest regulars and rehab minor injuries. So using him there full time feels subpar. If his physical tools translated to some defensive skills, he'd be easier to plan around. But for whatever reason, they just don't.

For a lot of people, I think myself included, it's easier to just assume other teams see his prodigious physical tools and somebody out there thinks they can fix him, and would value him accordingly. So we're content to rest on the easy idea that he should be on the trade block. It's harder to imagine the Cubs player development fixing those issues for him at the major league level, but I'd be thrilled if that's the case.

[SABR Gamer]

2 hours ago, BobbyD3 said:

I have no words.  You live in your world, I will live in mine.  That seems like the American thing to do.

I'll happily risk a ban to say that this kind of stuff has to be some sort of mental illness.