Cubs offseason chit chat...

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand. But what I am saying is IF they do sign Bellinger is it even worth chasing a dumpster dive FA pitcher and bat, if they don’t go over this year. Do you want another Hosmer at league minimum ? Or some clown reclamation project pitcher at $2M. Might as well keep what they have and hope a young guy gets the job done. I would guess the young guy has as good a chance as the cheap player. 

The Cubs did a very good job signing cheap players/reclamation projects and turning them into serviceable major league players while they were in their rebuilding phases. They missed on a couple/few last year, but every cheap offensive player isn't Eric Hosmer. I'm not saying that they'll be better than Prospect X, but to automatically dismiss a cheap veteran for a prospect because of Eric Hosmer is oversimplifying the process. Part of your job as a GM is to determine the differences between the waiver wire guy and the dude in AAA. The monetary risk is low, the playing time risk isn't. Pick the better player, not just the younger one. 

[Bertz]

So I'm not aware of this guy ever actually breaking anything, but people treat him like he's not full of crap so who knows.  It's not like anything real is going on.  Also not sure how this makes sense for the Cubs unless Jed has something unexpected up his sleeve.  Like even if he signs Chapman you'd probably keep Madrigal and trade one of Morel/Wisdom?

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So I'm not aware of this guy ever actually breaking anything, but people treat him like he's not full of crap so who knows.  It's not like anything real is going on.  Also not sure how this makes sense for the Cubs unless Jed has something unexpected up his sleeve.  Like even if he signs Chapman you'd probably keep Madrigal and trade one of Morel/Wisdom?

 

I also don't expect it to mean something, and I agree that it's not an obvious fit at first glance.  But if we take their words about stacking wins to heart, and they think they've got Jerry fixated on Madrigal, then maybe there is something there.  I just don't have an idea of who's on the other end, the pitchers I can think of(Miller, Woo, Brash) are probably too far out of reach for something centered on Madrigal, maybe they're cashing in more generally to use in a subsequent/3 team deal?

[LBiittner]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So I'm not aware of this guy ever actually breaking anything, but people treat him like he's not full of crap so who knows.  It's not like anything real is going on.  Also not sure how this makes sense for the Cubs unless Jed has something unexpected up his sleeve.  Like even if he signs Chapman you'd probably keep Madrigal and trade one of Morel/Wisdom?

 

Might be just just?

There was speculation earlier yesterday the mariners are willing to deal for an infielder. 

He might be just putting 2 teams together for match

Could easily listReds instead of cubs

Edited January 23, 2024 by LBiittner

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Whoa 

Please don't be defensive. I'm curios because we are of the same generation and I respect your opinion. Please remove the chip from your attire. 

I'm asking because I can’t/won't believe Jed will let this opportunity to win the division float away. I understand he's waiting out the free agency to make his boss make more financial gain. But I can't justify the lack of trading more than the one deal to date

Ok, cool. We are good. Just, in the past you have referred to me as a prospect hugger. I thought you were suggesting that again. I am in full agreement with you. The Cubs should not waste this opportunity. They need to acquire talent via free agency or trade. And they need to act like a large market and at least not be afraid of the first LT layer. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Whoa 

Please don't be defensive. I'm curios because we are of the same generation and I respect your opinion. Please remove the chip from your attire. 

I'm asking because I can’t/won't believe Jed will let this opportunity to win the division float away. I understand he's waiting out the free agency to make his boss make more financial gain. But I can't justify the lack of trading more than the one deal to 

Edited January 23, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Whoa 

Please don't be defensive. I'm curios because we are of the same generation and I respect your opinion. Please remove the chip from your attire. 

I'm asking because I can’t/won't believe Jed will let this opportunity to win the division float away. I understand he's waiting out the free agency to make his boss make more financial gain. But I can't justify the lack of trading more than the one deal to date

 

Edited January 23, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I also don't expect it to mean something, and I agree that it's not an obvious fit at first glance.  But if we take their words about stacking wins to heart, and they think they've got Jerry fixated on Madrigal, then maybe there is something there.  I just don't have an idea of who's on the other end, the pitchers I can think of(Miller, Woo, Brash) are probably too far out of reach for something centered on Madrigal, maybe they're cashing in more generally to use in a subsequent/3 team deal?

I don’t see Madrigal bringing much back. Do they have a pen arm they might deal for him? Or even him and a minor league lower level prospect for a pen arm? They are not going to get one of those young starting pitchers. 

[Rob]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t see Madrigal bringing much back. Do they have a pen arm they might deal for him? Or even him and a minor league lower level prospect for a pen arm? They are not going to get one of those young starting pitchers. 

I'm not seeing it as super likely that the Cubs want to trade Madrigal. A man with his skillset is a prime candidate to find some synergy in a Counsell-managed team. With proper deployment, he could be somewhat valuable to us over the three remaining years of club control. More than he'd likely be worth for other teams, I imagine...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t see Madrigal bringing much back. Do they have a pen arm they might deal for him? Or even him and a minor league lower level prospect for a pen arm? They are not going to get one of those young starting pitchers. 

There's always a difficult tension with trade rumors, because we'll always probably overvalue our own guys, but at the same time this is an oddly specific rumor so if we take it at face value I think we also have to assume it's because the Mariners probably see greater value in Madrigal than we do.  Then it's a question in the other direction, are there guys we think are out of reach who they might be down on for some reason, or other ways the value/perception gap lines up with what the team's needs are.

That said, like I mentioned before I think there's a struggle to find a clean match.  Madrigal for a bat doesn't make much sense for the Mariners given what position the Cubs would want the bat to play, so you're left with arms, and most of the potentially fungible arms are probably too good or have too much team control for Madrigal to fetch, even if you're high on his value.  That's why part of me wonders if the team would rather cash in Madrigal's value here to not fill a need, but to give resources to make a corresponding move.  Whether that's a 3 way deal or simply providing the org depth to feel more comfortable trading existing players, it could take several forms.

Looking at the Mariners roster again though, the one name that might make sense is Gabe Speier.  He was a solid reliever when he finally got an extended MLB shot this year, he throws pretty hard for a LHRP(12th of 39 LHRP w/ 50+ IP in FB velo), Fangraphs says he's still optionable this year and he is still pre-arb.  He might be available because he's a pop-up success that wasn't *dominant* at age 28 and since he's not set to be part of the Mariners 8th/9th inning, they could see that being a worthwhile swap to fix a lineup spot with a multi-year option in Madrigal.

[Post Count Padder]

Maybe it's Stockholm Syndrome but I'm starting to be ok with the idea of 3B being Madrigal and Wisdom with a side of Busch. Maybe upgrade at the trade deadline depending on how things are looking.

[Backtobanks]

Interesting trade proposal on MLBTV:

Merryweather + Morel + Brown for Ty France + Bryan Woo.

[Post Count Padder]

1 minute ago, Backtobanks said:

Interesting trade proposal on MLBTV:

Merryweather + Morel + Brown for Ty France + Bryan Woo.

I wouldn't do that. Hurts our pen and I'm not high on France. I also think Ben Brown ends up better than Woo.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I wouldn't do that. Hurts our pen and I'm not high on France. I also think Ben Brown ends up better than Woo.

I guess if the Cubs really like Woo it works. But then they are moving Busch back to 3rd. Not really a fan of France but he would be their first baseman. If I had to say yes or no to it, I would say no for the Cubs. 

[chopsx9]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Well Heyward was a significantly better baseball player going into that offseason than Bellinger is now,

Was he? Heyward had 5.6 fWar - if we equalize the games played Bellinger comes out at 4.85 - is that significantly better?  Fangraphs says it isn't.  In my mind the more important fact is - that according to Fangraphs - Bellinger had a much better offensive season even when you don't adjust for the number of games played - which I believe - is a bigger need the way cubs are currently constructed. 

[UMFan83]

So is this like the 4th inning stretch or something?

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

Was he? Heyward had 5.6 fWar - if we equalize the games played Bellinger comes out at 4.85 - is that significantly better?  Fangraphs says it isn't.  In my mind the more important fact is - that according to Fangraphs - Bellinger had a much better offensive season even when you don't adjust for the number of games played - which I believe - is a bigger need the way cubs are currently constructed. 

Wasn't really expecting to get into a debate about whether 2016 Jason Heyward is better or worse for the 2024 Cubs than present day Cody Bellinger. But, sure. Heyward was 2 years younger, coming off basically a four year stretch of playing to a 5 win pace, and yes, outperformed Bellinger in his free agent year. Not sure how you get to a 5.6 to 4.8 difference not being 'significantly' different but Bellinger putting up an offensive number of 26.3 vs Heyward's 22.2 is a 'much better offensive season'.

Interestingly, the main thing they had in common was that Heyward outperformed his xwOBA by 29 points his last year in StL and Bellinger just outperformed his by 39 points. But that's probably just me trolling again. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

So is this like the 4th inning stretch or something?

I really have no concept whatsoever of how negotiations happen behind the scenes, but in my simple mind I boil the process down to:

1. Agent requests offers from teams
2. Teams provide offers
3. Agent reviews offer and reponds

What I can't comprehend is why it takes so long for all this to occur.  I would think that for anyone still available at this stage, their market has pretty much been established based on existing offers.  How much more back and forth could there possibly be?  Both sides seem to be waiting for something to change, but nothing really changes from day to day.  So they rinse and repeat, waiting for someone to blink.  None of it really matters as long as players are signed by Spring Training, but I'm beginning to question whether that is even going to happen or if we are going to have multiple high-profile hold outs into spring.

[squally1313]

Just now, Irrelevant Dude said:

I really have no concept whatsoever of how negotiations happen behind the scenes, but in my simple mind I boil the process down to:

1. Agent requests offers from teams
2. Teams provide offers
3. Agent reviews offer and reponds

What I can't comprehend is why it takes so long for all this to occur.  I would think that for anyone still available at this stage, their market has pretty much been established based on existing offers.  How much more back and forth could there possibly be?  Both sides seem to be waiting for something to change, but nothing really changes from day to day.  So they rinse and repeat, waiting for someone to blink.  None of it really matters as long as players are signed by Spring Training, but I'm beginning to question whether that is even going to happen or if we are going to have multiple high-profile hold outs into spring.

I mean, and I don't want to sound overly short or anything, but it's guys with families, relationships, maybe small kids, etc etc etc deciding where they want to spend the next 3-8 years of their life? For a job that doesn't technically start for another month? Like, would you be in a rush? If you're a good player and you want to go to a winner, wouldn't you maybe try to wait and see if a certain team made any other moves?

[Irrelevant Dude]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, and I don't want to sound overly short or anything, but it's guys with families, relationships, maybe small kids, etc etc etc deciding where they want to spend the next 3-8 years of their life? For a job that doesn't technically start for another month? Like, would you be in a rush? If you're a good player and you want to go to a winner, wouldn't you maybe try to wait and see if a certain team made any other moves?

I find it hard to believe guys are waiting it out just to see what other moves teams make over the next 3-4 weeks.  They have every right to sign whenever they want to sign, but there is very little that is going to be known a month from now that isn't already known today.

[UMFan83]

20 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I really have no concept whatsoever of how negotiations happen behind the scenes, but in my simple mind I boil the process down to:

1. Agent requests offers from teams
2. Teams provide offers
3. Agent reviews offer and reponds

What I can't comprehend is why it takes so long for all this to occur.  I would think that for anyone still available at this stage, their market has pretty much been established based on existing offers.  How much more back and forth could there possibly be?  Both sides seem to be waiting for something to change, but nothing really changes from day to day.  So they rinse and repeat, waiting for someone to blink.  None of it really matters as long as players are signed by Spring Training, but I'm beginning to question whether that is even going to happen or if we are going to have multiple high-profile hold outs into spring.

Yeah I think I get it for guys like Bellinger.  Boras is basically waiting for a team to blink but if the Cubs are supposedly still 3-4 transactions away from completing their offseason I'm not sure why there's no movement on relievers or other areas of need.

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, and I don't want to sound overly short or anything, but it's guys with families, relationships, maybe small kids, etc etc etc deciding where they want to spend the next 3-8 years of their life? For a job that doesn't technically start for another month? Like, would you be in a rush? If you're a good player and you want to go to a winner, wouldn't you maybe try to wait and see if a certain team made any other moves?

I freely admit that I am not a professional baseball player, never was, and have never known one personally. However, if I were in the position to be offered multi-millions of dollars to play baseball, I would be looking to wrap up the negotiations as soon as possible so I could carry on with my offseason schedule in peace without having to worry about where I was going to live and play baseball for the next 3-8 years. But I'm also impulsive. I need to know stuff about my future to make me comfortable in my surroundings. When I was in college I would go to my classroom a week before classes started just so I'd make sure I knew where I was going. I'd be the same way I think with my career. After I graduated and went on my interviews I didn't take the first offer, but I didn't wait to take the offer from the place I wanted to work at either. So, although I cannot put myself in the position of a multimillionaire, I can try if unsuccessfully, to give my perspective. It would do psychological damage to not know where I was going to live up to the last weeks before the season starts.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I freely admit that I am not a professional baseball player, never was, and have never known one personally. However, if I were in the position to be offered multi-millions of dollars to play baseball, I would be looking to wrap up the negotiations as soon as possible so I could carry on with my offseason schedule in peace without having to worry about where I was going to live and play baseball for the next 3-8 years. But I'm also impulsive. I need to know stuff about my future to make me comfortable in my surroundings. When I was in college I would go to my classroom a week before classes started just so I'd make sure I knew where I was going. I'd be the same way I think with my career. After I graduated and went on my interviews I didn't take the first offer, but I didn't wait to take the offer from the place I wanted to work at either. So, although I cannot put myself in the position of a multimillionaire, I can try if unsuccessfully, to give my perspective. It would do psychological damage to not know where I was going to live up to the last weeks before the season starts.

It's just entirely different for them than it is for all of us. Bellinger is 27 years old, the son of a major league baseball player, and has made almost $70m already. He's the definition of 'in peace' and has been for essentially his entire life. There are entire teams dedicated to making whatever his surroundings are as comfortable as possible, and he has magnitudes more money than I assume all of us to speed up that comfort. He's never once in this offseason been at risk of making less than $20m starting in 6 weeks. That's not to say it's not a 'difficult' decision, but it's a totally different world. 

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's just entirely different for them than it is for all of us. Bellinger is 27 years old, the son of a major league baseball player, and has made almost $70m already. He's the definition of 'in peace' and has been for essentially his entire life. There are entire teams dedicated to making whatever his surroundings are as comfortable as possible, and he has magnitudes more money than I assume all of us to speed up that comfort. He's never once in this offseason been at risk of making less than $20m starting in 6 weeks. That's not to say it's not a 'difficult' decision, but it's a totally different world. 

Yeah, but his FA decisions are constrained by which states have legal weed.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Yeah, but his FA decisions are constrained by which states have legal weed.

He's a rich white guy. He is certainly not constrained by weed rules.