Cubs offseason chit chat...

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

My interest would be highly dependent on the rest of the offseason around him, but Manaea is going to be a savvy pickup for someone.  SFG did a lot to get him back on track including this sweeper and adding back some velo.

I'd be down but shouldn't SFG just snatch him up? 

 

 

 

 

[thawv]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

But what is the point of that? I thought most people suggested if you pay Bellinger the $25M to $27M a year for 6-8 years he needs to be in center to be worth the contract. Basically because he isn’t worth that at 1st. How is it different if he moves to left to put Happ at first? You put a guy at first who isn’t as good as Bellinger. If you want to argue that Bellinger is a better left fielder than Happ, fine. But I would rather have a better fielder at 1st. As for DH, for that to happen Morel has to play 3rd. Something else most don’t think he can do. I am fine with signing Bellinger but if they keep PCA it does make for a less than ideal fit. I think you end up putting Bellinger at 1st base. Which, again, most have make a good point that he isn’t worth $27M a year for 6 years as a first baseman. 
I think 1908 pointed out he thinks it is highly unlikely they trade PCA. I actually agree with him. I am suggesting what  I wish they would trade PCA to fill another need. I am not suggesting that I think they will. IMO if they sign Bellinger, PCA will start in the minors. Once he is brought up they will work him in as TT suggested playing 6 guys at 5 positions, the rest of 24. Then in 25 Bellinger is the first baseman. To me this is not ideal. But I do agree with 1908 that PCA seems like the exact type of player the Cubs want. And they do want to build from within. 

Most people did suggest that.  But once he's signed, it no longer matters where he plays.  If they're aren't going to sign a first baseman, or give Mervis a shot, if they signed Cody, I'd put him in LF.  Yes, he's a much better defender corner out fielder than Happ.  Since 1B has the least positional value on the field, I would take my chance at having a better defensive LF'er than 1B.  But that's just me I guess. 

I just don't see any reason why Cody and PCA can't both be every day players.  I also don't think that PCA is getting traded at all.  If he's an average hitter, he's going to be a 4-5 win player.  I'm keeping him.

I've reached the point that I'm just ready to play all the young guys every day.  See what they have in them.  They're never going to find out if they're major league players by facing minor league players all the time. 

I'd move Caissie out of the crowded OF and work him at 1B.  I'd sign Rhys for 1, maybe 2 years.  If they don't want to o that, I'd give the job to Mervis and not look back.  I'd put Canario in LF and PCA in CF, with Happ DH and run Morel out to 3B until he forces a change.  I'd move Shaw along very quickly.  I'd like to see Horton up very soon.  Brown is entering his 8th year as a minor league player.  He is who he is.  If they don't think he can be a solid SP, I'd work him in to the closer's role, with Little as the set up man, and Adbert the 7th inning guy.  

I know I'm on an island here, but I want to see some real changes.

 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Was just thinking about this Zumach post. There's many Cub teams and many scenarios where I'd be into Manaea, I just don't think this Cubs team is the Cub team he's a good fit for. He just hasn't been particularly great over his last two seasons, and I just don't think the Cubs are in the position to give him the shot he probably thinks he deserves. The Cubs would likely have to jettison Wicks in a trade for me to have any real interest in Manaea and it feels unlikely that kind of a trade is being discussed at this time (especially considering that the names being talked about seem to include Brown and Wesneski which already strike at our pitching depth). 

The Cubs feel too good to be taking a risk on Manaea in the rotation spot they actually have open (which is, for all intents and purposes, is an opening for what will become the second best pitcher in the rotation). And he probably should be able to find some team willing to give him a real chance to win a rotational spot Opening Day. So while I respect the hell out of Zumach, I think he's getting the kind of love he probably deserves from Cubdom right now. 

I don't think you can go into 2024 with 3 tremendous question marks and lots of money invested into Manaea, Taillon and Smyly. If Talilon or Smyly wasn't around, yeah I'd be game, but you can't go into 2024 with 3 pitchers surrounded by that much uncertainty. 

[squally1313]

31 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm at the point where I'd put the odds on likeliest scenario being that they go into 2024 as an equal or worse team than they finished 2023. There's far too many things that would have to go just right for me to realistically believe they're going to put together a team projected for 90 wins, like I think most of us thought was imminent after the Counsell signing. If they don't end up snagging Bellinger, then things are going to start getting real dark around here.

Lol at the last sentence. This place got a pretty impressive infusion of doom boners this offseason. 

I'm still pretty optimistic that by March we'll have put together a team that is favored to win the division. There's still more than enough paths to that end. No, we won't match up to the Dodgers or the Braves, but we were never going to in 2024 regardless. I wish we would have made a big swing, but there's room in the budget and relatively easy upgrades to be made to last years team to cancel out the losses. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

Most people did suggest that.  But once he's signed, it no longer matters where he plays.  If they're aren't going to sign a first baseman, or give Mervis a shot, if they signed Cody, I'd put him in LF.  Yes, he's a much better defender corner out fielder than Happ.  Since 1B has the least positional value on the field, I would take my chance at having a better defensive LF'er than 1B.  But that's just me I guess. 

I just don't see any reason why Cody and PCA can't both be every day players.  I also don't think that PCA is getting traded at all.  If he's an average hitter, he's going to be a 4-5 win player.  I'm keeping him.

I've reached the point that I'm just ready to play all the young guys every day.  See what they have in them.  They're never going to find out if they're major league players by facing minor league players all the time. 

I'd move Caissie out of the crowded OF and work him at 1B.  I'd sign Rhys for 1, maybe 2 years.  If they don't want to o that, I'd give the job to Mervis and not look back.  I'd put Canario in LF and PCA in CF, with Happ DH and run Morel out to 3B until he forces a change.  I'd move Shaw along very quickly.  I'd like to see Horton up very soon.  Brown is entering his 8th year as a minor league player.  He is who he is.  If they don't think he can be a solid SP, I'd work him in to the closer's role, with Little as the set up man, and Adbert the 7th inning guy.  

I know I'm on an island here, but I want to see some real changes.

 

That doesn't feel like "change", though. That feels like the status quo. And probably a pretty bad Cub team. The Cubs don't need to play every prospect they have simply because they're prospects. And he Cubs have plenty of talent on the roster that they shouldn't be throwing away a full season on "play the kids" entirely. They can play some young players but they don't need to play them all. 

That's sounds like the 2021-2022 Cubs of "we'll just trade some guys at the deadline" stuff. The Cubs shouldn't feel forced to play players like Canario simply because they're young. 

[Illiterate Scholar]

Maybe this is a pointless game to play with Jed as he might be willing to draw a line in the sand no matter the situation, but I wonder if the main holdup now is Imanaga who supposedly will do some visits after Jan 1 (and importantly has a firm deadline to make a decision). Whether or not he lands him could impact how he values targets from the Guardians for example. If he doesn't do anything before the new year, I'm going with that theory. Assuming Bellinger will also take awhile. 

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Lol at the last sentence. This place got a pretty impressive infusion of doom boners this offseason. 

I'm still pretty optimistic that by March we'll have put together a team that is favored to win the division. There's still more than enough paths to that end. No, we won't match up to the Dodgers or the Braves, but we were never going to in 2024 regardless. I wish we would have made a big swing, but there's room in the budget and relatively easy upgrades to be made to last years team to cancel out the losses. 

The division is there for the taking, trying to sneak past a greatly weakened Brewer team and a Cardinal team coming off their worst season in decades is not exactly inspiring.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

Maybe this is a pointless game to play with Jed as he might be willing to draw a line in the sand no matter the situation, but I wonder if the main holdup now is Imanaga who supposedly will do some visits after Jan 1 (and importantly has a firm deadline to make a decision). Whether or not he lands him could impact how he values targets from the Guardians for example. If he doesn't do anything before the new year, I'm going with that theory. Assuming Bellinger will also take awhile. 

With the Cubs mantra of "no bidding wars", I think any plan the Cubs have that expressly rely on a single player outside of the very special case of Ohtani is probably unlikely. There are other big spenders who need SP and Imanaga's price is likely well above early projections (probably looking $100-$120m at this stage). If the Cubs are playing the "wait and see" market on the hitters, they'll likely be doing so with the SP's (who's a deeper group) as well. Which isn't to say they can't possibly win Imanaga, only that they don't seem very likely to be waiting on any one in particular.

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Was just thinking about this Zumach post. There's many Cub teams and many scenarios where I'd be into Manaea, I just don't think this Cubs team is the Cub team he's a good fit for. He just hasn't been particularly great over his last two seasons, and I just don't think the Cubs are in the position to give him the shot he probably thinks he deserves. The Cubs would likely have to jettison Wicks in a trade for me to have any real interest in Manaea and it feels unlikely that kind of a trade is being discussed at this time (especially considering that the names being talked about seem to include Brown and Wesneski which already strike at our pitching depth). 

The Cubs feel too good to be taking a risk on Manaea in the rotation spot they actually have open (which is, for all intents and purposes, is an opening for what will become the second best pitcher in the rotation). And he probably should be able to find some team willing to give him a real chance to win a rotational spot Opening Day. So while I respect the hell out of Zumach, I think he's getting the kind of love he probably deserves from Cubdom right now. 

I think if you trade from the cache of young pitching, which as we know there's some rumblings about, you can fit a guy like this in pretty easily.  I like James Paxton under similar circumstances.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think if you trade from the cache of young pitching, which as we know there's some rumblings about, you can fit a guy like this in pretty easily.  I like James Paxton under similar circumstances.

The question isn't "can the Cubs fit Manaea in the bullpen?" it's "why would 32 year old Sean Manaea accept he's only a BP arm for the rest of his career if he had that much personal success with his new pitch?". If Manaea wants to be a left handed pitcher in the Cubs bullpen, mixed in with a handful of other guys who can eat up some extra starts, I'm all for it. What I think is likely is that someone out there is going to give him a much more clear cut path to winning a rotational spot and he's going to look to rebuild his career. And I think the Cubs situation is that where they can't offer that to him (and shouldn't be). 

[thawv]

14 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That doesn't feel like "change", though. That feels like the status quo. And probably a pretty bad Cub team. The Cubs don't need to play every prospect they have simply because they're prospects. And he Cubs have plenty of talent on the roster that they shouldn't be throwing away a full season on "play the kids" entirely. They can play some young players but they don't need to play them all. 

That's sounds like the 2021-2022 Cubs of "we'll just trade some guys at the deadline" stuff. The Cubs shouldn't feel forced to play players like Canario simply because they're young. 

I think that Canario would be a very good addition with both the stick and it would be an upgrade in LF.  I just have a really good feeling about Canario.  And honestly, I don't think that playing 2 rookies every day is that much. 

 

How long are they going to jag around with Brown?  Get him up here!  This is who his is.  Maybe a solid starter, or maybe a high leverage reliever.  He has 3 plus pitches and he's still in the minors after 7 years.   His control issues may never get better.  But he can still be very good in the bigs, and we need very good pitching, both in the rotation and in the pen. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Manaea opted out of 12.5 million so he's probably pretty eager to sign a multi-year deal, which isn't how I would want a 2nd SP handled unless there's some significant change in circumstances.  Without putting a ton of thought into the individual repertoires/fits, I'd probably prefer the likes of Velasquez, Turnbull, Montas, or Odorizzi on 1 year deals, though what I *really* want is to buy low on a stuff monster SP that hasn't put it together(Edward Cabrera being the pinnacle)

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The question isn't "can the Cubs fit Manaea in the bullpen?" it's "why would 32 year old Sean Manaea accept he's only a BP arm for the rest of his career if he had that much personal success with his new pitch?". If Manaea wants to be a left handed pitcher in the Cubs bullpen, mixed in with a handful of other guys who can eat up some extra starts, I'm all for it. What I think is likely is that someone out there is going to give him a much more clear cut path to winning a rotational spot and he's going to look to rebuild his career. And I think the Cubs situation is that where they can't offer that to him (and shouldn't be). 

I never said anything about the bullpen.  If we've got our full complement of youths I'm happy to hand the 5th starter spot to Wicks et al.  If the herd is thinned I think bringing someone in is probably smart.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Manaea opted out of 12.5 million so he's probably pretty eager to sign a multi-year deal, which isn't how I would want a 2nd SP handled unless there's some significant change in circumstances.  Without putting a ton of thought into the individual repertoires/fits, I'd probably prefer the likes of Velasquez, Turnbull, Montas, or Odorizzi on 1 year deals, though what I *really* want is to buy low on a stuff monster SP that hasn't put it together(Edward Cabrera being the pinnacle)

With a nasty sweeper and potential of a splitter thats exactly how i view Manaea being. 

[JHBulls]

I am not around for a few days, come back and I am greeted by Jed doing… nothing.

I remember there was a post of here speculating that there would be Cubs activity between Sunday and the following Sunday. That was the 10th and the 17th. We are almost 3 Sundays later and nothing has happened. So damn frustrating. 

[LBiittner]

To me it might appear that Jed is already planning on a rotation of Steele Taillon Hendriks Smyly Assad/Wicks to start the 2024 season. 

Then Mervis Hoerner Swanson Madrigil Happ Tauchman Suzuki as primarily in the field.

Hope I'm wrong but I fear Jed will prove me right

Edited December 28, 2023 by LBiittner
.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

To me it might appear that Jed is already planning on a rotation of Steele Taillon Hendriks Smyly Assad/Wicks to start the 2024 season. 

Then Mervis Hoerner Swanson Madrigil Happ Tauchman Suzuki as primarily in the field.

Hope I'm wrong but I fear Jed will prove me right

I would be willing to wager a lot of money that there will be at least one starter in the rotation or the lineup that currently isn't on the roster. This is just pessimism for the sake of pessimism. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, squally1313 said:

I would be willing to wager a lot of money that there will be at least one starter in the rotation or the lineup that currently isn't on the roster. This is just pessimism for the sake of pessimism. 

I'd agree, they will almost definitely add a starter whether it be via FA or trade. The question is, will it be a starter of note or will it be just another back end arm. I suspect it wont be the first option. 

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I would be willing to wager a lot of money that there will be at least one starter in the rotation or the lineup that currently isn't on the roster. This is just pessimism for the sake of pessimism. 

Ohhh but will he be better quality than Smyly?

Every day that pass by makes my projection closer to the truth

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

With a nasty sweeper and potential of a splitter thats exactly how i view Manaea being. 

I'm not a single issue voter on velocity, but Manaea is 32, sits 90-91 as a SP, and requires a multi-year 8 figure commitment, all of which are very much not what I have in mind.  The thinking is to gamble on upside because you have the depth in Wicks, Horton, and whatever of the rest(Assad, Wesneski, Brown) remain.

EDIT:  I missed that Manaea did get a velo bump from working with Driveline(though uncertain how that carries to a full starter workload), but the larger point still remains.

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I never said anything about the bullpen.  If we've got our full complement of youths I'm happy to hand the 5th starter spot to Wicks et al.  If the herd is thinned I think bringing someone in is probably smart.

Sorry, when you added him in with those names (trading from the young pitchers like Brown and Wesneski, who are likely going to be in the BP at best) I assumed you meant for him to be in the BP with those names. Manaea opted out of $12.5m and probably thinks he can get more. He's not a definitive better player moving forward over Wicks, so spending at least $12.5m over Wicks (for what is likely going to be 2+ years) is a bad use of budget for the Cubs who only have $70m and need to upgrade a bunch of places. Upgrading marginally on their 5th SP seems like a bad usage of that money and I'm not sure he's any better than Jordan Wicks moving forward.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Ohhh but will he be better quality than Smyly?

Yes

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Every day that pass by makes my projection closer to the truth

Nice, good for you. Games don't start for over 3 months. 

[Jason Ross]

21 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that Canario would be a very good addition with both the stick and it would be an upgrade in LF.  I just have a really good feeling about Canario.  And honestly, I don't think that playing 2 rookies every day is that much. 

 

How long are they going to jag around with Brown?  Get him up here!  This is who his is.  Maybe a solid starter, or maybe a high leverage reliever.  He has 3 plus pitches and he's still in the minors after 7 years.   His control issues may never get better.  But he can still be very good in the bigs, and we need very good pitching, both in the rotation and in the pen. 

Canario, outside of a single run in AA-AAA, has been a strikeout machine and reverted back into one last year. You can have  good feeling about him, but nothing in his profile suggests he's such a good player the Cubs should be forcing his way through. He might be useful, but the reality is, he's more than likely not going to be a worthwhile starting player (as most prospects are). His profile is riskier than most.

"Jag around with Brown"? I mean, he made it to Iowa very quickly last year, his age 23, then got hurt. Thaw, you're doing that thing you do where you just randomly get overly impatient on a prospect. Ben Brown just barely turned 24. Stop acting like he's 29. If he doesn't improve his control in AAA, he's not an MLB arm regardless. 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Yes

Nice, good for you. Games don't start for over 3 months. 

Jed has blown 3 months so far this offseason. He should be able to do another 3 standing on his head

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that Canario would be a very good addition with both the stick and it would be an upgrade in LF.  I just have a really good feeling about Canario.  And honestly, I don't think that playing 2 rookies every day is that much. 

 

How long are they going to jag around with Brown?  Get him up here!  This is who his is.  Maybe a solid starter, or maybe a high leverage reliever.  He has 3 plus pitches and he's still in the minors after 7 years.   His control issues may never get better.  But he can still be very good in the bigs, and we need very good pitching, both in the rotation and in the pen. 

I don’t understand your obvious need to replace Happ in left field. What makes you think Canario is going to be better. I get all the  negative stats on Happ, but he did win 2 gold gloves. So was he the best of a bad group? Maybe. But doesn’t the bad fielder usually play left? Sorry, I have a hard time penciling Canario into the everyday line up on a good feeling about him.