Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Tim]

14 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I don't know why everyone is in such a hurry to trade PCA now, he went from being the future to being trade bait in a matter of a couple months because of going hitless in 14 AB.

It's not everyone. It's around 4-5 people that post a lot.

[chibears55]

I think the BlueJays with their recent moves are pulling themselves out of any major signings. 

[Backtobanks]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I don't know why everyone is in such a hurry to trade PCA now, he went from being the future to being trade bait in a matter of a couple months because of going hitless in 14 AB.

If you sign Bellinger, you don't need PCA.  PCA has tremendous trade value in acquiring a young, controlled TOR which would really help the team for many years.  It's not the going hitless in 14 ABs, but if he continues to struggle, he will lose most/all of his trade value.

 

[Backtobanks]

12 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I also suspect that if he could be had for 150 then he would probably have more interested suitors, right?

 

We've seen Bellinger's floor, and I don't think he's gonna go that low again, but if he hit like Swanson did last year he isn't even a 3 win player.  The floor just isn't there to take that kind of gamble is the way I'm leaning.

 

Bellinger's floor was because of an injury and last year proved to me that he's overcome the problems he's had.  We've seen Bellinger's ceiling too and with the total track record, I think the gamble is better than betting on PCA being a good ML hitter. 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Alonso maybe?  Overall though I think just about any trade of substance except for a deal for just Bieber probably makes sense to include one of them.  

I think what is interesting about anything you read from Sharma is how casually he assumes Jed is going to make some hay via trade this winter.  Rogers has been similar when he's written and talked about the Cubs.  They've gotta be hearing stuff.

Yeah, the way Rogers and Sharma have suggested the trades is what's really interested me. It feels like they're hearing something more than just spitballing/speculation. It'd be nice to hear something more concrete on the returning names, but hopefully we'll know that sooner rather than later.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Tim said:

It's not everyone. It's around 4-5 people that post a lot.

I, for 1, am not suggesting he is traded because he started slow. I have suggested it only in the event they got Bellinger. And only for high quality back. His slow start is not remotely a consideration. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, the way Rogers and Sharma have suggested the trades is what's really interested me. It feels like they're hearing something more than just spitballing/speculation. It'd be nice to hear something more concrete on the returning names, but hopefully we'll know that sooner rather than later.

Fingers crossed.

[Illiterate Scholar]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

Then what is it ? What changed from August to October that has fans wanting to trade him now ?

It's in the specific scenario of re-signing Bellinger to a longish term deal and not wanting to move him to 1B for a majority of the contract. For reference, Steamer projects someone like Hoskins, who will probably get 1-2 years, to be a better hitter in 2024 than Bellinger. If Bellinger's price gets to Jed's comfort zone for 6-7 years (a 2022 Correa-type contract is a different scenario) then that is why we're bringing up PCA; not because he looked bad for a week in the majors, but because he would bring back a lot in return and we signed a CFer long term.

[Tim]

6 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Bellinger's floor was because of an injury and last year proved to me that he's overcome the problems he's had.  We've seen Bellinger's ceiling too and with the total track record, I think the gamble is better than betting on PCA being a good ML hitter. 

Wouldn't the real comparison there be:

Bellinger + trade returns from PCA

vs

PCA + whoever you can get for $150-200M?

[I owned a Suzuki]

24 minutes ago, Tim said:

Wouldn't the real comparison there be:

Bellinger + trade returns from PCA

vs

PCA + whoever you can get for $150-200M?

Plus if PCA doesnt work out, they would retain a certain amount of flexibility.  If Belli underperforms, would be hard to fix going forward.  I prefer the try and get Belli plan and keep PCA.  We have plenty of other trade pieces that are not a for sure GG caliber CFer

[Rcal10]

With the Twins making a move today for the major league roster the Cubs are now the only team to have not make any transaction resulting in adding a player to the major league roster. Congratulations Jed, you did it. You waited out the entire league. Now, let’s do something!!!!!! 

[Tryptamine]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

With the Twins making a move today for the major league roster the Cubs are now the only team to have not make any transaction resulting in adding a player to the major league roster. Congratulations Jed, you did it. You waited out the entire league. Now, let’s do something!!!!!! 

Which is unfortunate because I rather wanted Staumont. That was the perfect kind of arm for them to turn around.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

If you sign Bellinger, you don't need PCA.  PCA has tremendous trade value in acquiring a young, controlled TOR which would really help the team for many years.  It's not the going hitless in 14 ABs, but if he continues to struggle, he will lose most/all of his trade value.

 

Ok but getting Bellinger also means they don't need to rush PCA up in 2024 and when he is ready, Bellinger can play 1B, LF, RF, or DH in the upcoming seasons. 

So adding Bellinger wouldn't be blocking PCA.

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

Wouldn't the real comparison there be:

Bellinger + trade returns from PCA

vs

PCA + whoever you can get for $150-200M?

Yeah I think the main argument for Bellinger is that, mainly given the current roster makeup, Bellinger represents the best use of $150m-$200m, with the secondary argument being that a PCA trade opens up the potential options significantly.

The team needs offense. PCAs like, 90% ceiling is probably a center field Hoerner, so even in the best of outcomes you're still looking at another glove first guy. A very valuable glove first guy, to be clear, but you're really starting to test the limits of how you want to get to that 40-45 fWAR number. We need to figure out a way to find an offensive upgrade, but he can't play short, second, left, or right. You aren't going to pay a first baseman $200m (because, in my opinion, using Freeman and Olson's contracts as benchmarks, there are no $200m first basemen available), the best third baseman upgrade is a glove first guy not worth that kind of money, the only real DH option went to the Dodgers, and catcher there's obviously nothing. Bellinger represents premium offensive production relative to centerfielders. And PCA represents maybe the most valuable trade chip out there for a team looking to rebuild, cut costs, etc. 

[squally1313]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Ok but getting Bellinger also means they don't need to rush PCA up in 2024 and when he is ready, Bellinger can play 1B, LF, RF, or DH in the upcoming seasons. 

So adding Bellinger wouldn't be blocking PCA.

But assuming the market doesn't totally collapse for Bellinger, you'd still be outbidding everyone for a centerfielder and then pushing him down the spectrum a year into his 6-8 year deal. There's no realistic projection for Bellingers offensive production that puts him as an elite first baseman and you'd be paying him more than anyone else who plays the position. Moving him to a corner outfield spot just pushes Suzuki or Happ (two above average but not elite offensive players) down the spectrum as well. 

To clarify this and my above post, none of this is a shot at PCA, and none of this is based on his 2024 MLB performance. This is a function of the players available in free agency, the roster spots currently open/locked in, and the fact that we already have two cornerstones who glove their way to elite production, and I'd like to complement that with someone who will slug their way there. 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Ok but getting Bellinger also means they don't need to rush PCA up in 2024 and when he is ready, Bellinger can play 1B, LF, RF, or DH in the upcoming seasons. 

So adding Bellinger wouldn't be blocking PCA.

Bellinger isn’t worth what he will cost to sign if he isn’t in center. That is the problem. 

[Jfoley89]

3 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

If you sign Bellinger, you don't need PCA.  PCA has tremendous trade value in acquiring a young, controlled TOR which would really help the team for many years.  It's not the going hitless in 14 ABs, but if he continues to struggle, he will lose most/all of his trade value.

 

And the young TOR could flame out or tear a UCL. It's not like getting a pitcher is any guarantee.  

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

And the young TOR could flame out or tear a UCL. It's not like getting a pitcher is any guarantee.  

He could also turn out to be a future HOFer. Anyone can play this game. 

[Backtobanks]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Bellinger isn’t worth what he will cost to sign if he isn’t in center. That is the problem. 

Bellinger is young enough and plays excellent CF and I don't see any reason to move him to a different position for at least 5 years.  

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Bellinger is young enough and plays excellent CF and I don't see any reason to move him to a different position for at least 5 years.  

Me too. That is why I would like to see him back. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Rcal10

[Backtobanks]

6 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

And the young TOR could flame out or tear a UCL. It's not like getting a pitcher is any guarantee.  

He could, but then there's a good chance PCA turns into Brennan Davis after crashing into too many walls too.

[Tryptamine]

That's also why, keeping PCA would make no sense.

[Backtobanks]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I, for 1, am not suggesting he is traded because he started slow. I have suggested it only in the event they got Bellinger. And only for high quality back. His slow start is not remotely a consideration. 

I mention trading PCA because to get the real quality young TOR, you're going to have to include PCA or Morel.  Signing Bellinger makes PCA available.

[chopsx9]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

. There's no realistic projection for Bellingers offensive production that puts him as an elite first baseman and you'd be paying him more than anyone else who plays the position.

Why is this case?  If Bellinger played a full season last year his bWar is over 5 - which is on same level as Freemans last year before signing his current contract (and he's 4 years younger)  Bellinger has achieved a higher single season WAR total than Freeman ever has; by a fairly wide margin.  Hard hit rate?  You know who has a pretty good hard hit rate?  Higher career mark than Freeman in any case - David Bote.  Do we want him playing 1B?  Even if he ends up playing 1B part of Bellinger's value is that if Seiya turns back into a Kabocha, if PCA doesn't pan out, if Happ tears his ACL he slides back to the OF and probably plays better than who he is replacing.  How many years are those guys signed for anyway?  The Cubs need a stud offensive force in the line-up - where else are they going to get one?  It sure as hell ain't Matt Chapman.  Would it be better fit if Jose Ramirez were available - sure - but he isn't.  I believe Bellinger is going to be good enough offensively and that coupled with the flexibility he gives the lineup is justification enough - in my eyes - to sign him.

[Jfoley89]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

He could also turn out to be a future HOFer. Anyone can play this game. 

I'm not the one making the argument that trading PCA helps the Cubs for years to come. TINSTAAPP