Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I'd take him sure, he's really good when not injured, but I wouldn't overpay for him.  Why give up a young SP for him when there's numerous quality SP on the FA market that will not cost one of our young pitchers that we'll need this season?

If he could throw about 140 IP next season I think he'd be worth the 25m salary because of the quality of his innings, but that would be a career high for him.

If the Rays want us to take on his whole salary I'm not giving them anything more than a meh prospect outside our Top 30 we won't miss.

So again. We aren’t getting him then. It not just the Cubs they are trading with. I don’t understand your worry about money. If he pitches well who cares what he makes? If he cost Wesnecki and Thompson, who cares. Is he better than those guys? Yes. Are those guys even sure things to be in the team in 25? No! So if he helps you win next year and then in 25’ either Horton takes his spot, or if they sign Ohtani, he takes his spot, who really cares about the payroll in 24’? No, I wouldn’t give up a top prospect. I wouldn’t give up Morel. But the Xubs have a lot of redundant arms they can move. And if he pitches close to as a starter who is TOR quality, I really am not all all concerned about 24’s payroll.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Brian707 said:

We might be thinking of the same guy, he was on a baseball message board but also was on a Vegas message board. If this is the same guy you are thinking of he posted he was in the South tower when the North tower was hit and never heard from him again

His username was Trane, I remember, because he liked the music of John Coltrane.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

So again. We aren’t getting him then. It not just the Cubs they are trading with. I don’t understand your worry about money. If he pitches well who cares what he makes? If he cost Wesnecki and Thompson, who cares. Is he better than those guys? Yes. Are those guys even sure things to be in the team in 25? No! So if he helps you win next year and then in 25’ either Horton takes his spot, or if they sign Ohtani, he takes his spot, who really cares about the payroll in 24’? No, I wouldn’t give up a top prospect. I wouldn’t give up Morel. But the Xubs have a lot of redundant arms they can move. And if he pitches close to as a starter who is TOR quality, I really am not all all concerned about 24’s payroll.

I know you like Glasnow a lot.

We have to assume the Cubs will have a payroll limit Ricketts won't go over for 2024 like every year.  So in order to build the best team possible for 2024 Hoyer should still be trying to make the best moves that will maximize our number of wins.

The only time a team shouldn't care about payroll is if they have an open checkbook from the owner.

[Brian707]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

His username was Trane, I remember, because he liked the music of John Coltrane.

Yup same guy. Really smart dude too

[Rcal10]

Just now, Stratos said:

I know you like Glasnow a lot.

We have to assume the Cubs will have a payroll limit Ricketts won't go over for 2024 like every year.  So in order to build the best team possible for 2024 Hoyer should still be trying to make the best moves that will maximize our number of wins.

The only time a team shouldn't care about payroll is if they have an open checkbook from the owner.

I don’t necessarily like Glasnow a lot. All I am saying is you can’t say you are ok with trading for him and then say you would only offer terrible players for him. Just say you don’t want him. As for payroll, I already explained it would be a one year one off. They are losing around $50M from payroll in 25’ and the only real loss they are needing to replace is Hendricks. If they traded for Glasnow, and even went to $280M in payroll this year, besides the $50M coming off next year would also be Glasnow at $25M. So they would be under the first LT by $30M. And wouldn’t need to replace much. All I have to consider when thinking of Glasnow is will he help them next year. And IMO if he is healthy he will. Is he better than Wesnecki and Thompson next year? Again I would say yes. That said, I am fine with other moves instead. I also wouldn’t give up top prospects for Glasnow. But IMO the fact he only has one year is a plus for the Cubs. Keeps prospect cost down and they can get out of his deal in one year. 

[Tryptamine]

I literally might vomit if Jed even considered this trade. From an MLBTR chat.

Mariners

1:48

Matt Shaw and Christopher Morel to Seattle for Bryce Miller and Justin Tops?

 

Steve Adams

1:48

I'm not as big on Morel as a lot of Cubs fans. I wouldn't take him as the headliner in a Miller deal, personally

[Bertz]

Let's pull out a globe and speculate wildly

 

[LBiittner]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let's pull out a globe and speculate wildly

 

Didn't alzolay do something similar last off-season before a cubs move?

[ILMindState]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Let's pull out a globe and speculate wildly

 

Japan is home to some of the world's leading manufacturers and robotics companies. As of 2022, 45% of all industrial robots in the world were originally produced or designed by companies in Japan.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t necessarily like Glasnow a lot. All I am saying is you can’t say you are ok with trading for him and then say you would only offer terrible players for him. Just say you don’t want him. As for payroll, I already explained it would be a one year one off. They are losing around $50M from payroll in 25’ and the only real loss they are needing to replace is Hendricks. If they traded for Glasnow, and even went to $280M in payroll this year, besides the $50M coming off next year would also be Glasnow at $25M. So they would be under the first LT by $30M. And wouldn’t need to replace much. All I have to consider when thinking of Glasnow is will he help them next year. And IMO if he is healthy he will. Is he better than Wesnecki and Thompson next year? Again I would say yes. That said, I am fine with other moves instead. I also wouldn’t give up top prospects for Glasnow. But IMO the fact he only has one year is a plus for the Cubs. Keeps prospect cost down and they can get out of his deal in one year. 

Well you've mentioned him a lot as a Cubs target this offseason, that's all i mean.

I would also very much like the Cubs to have a 280m payroll this season.  I don't know how much their payroll will be, but as I've said before I do think strategically it makes sense for them to go over the CBT line the next season or 2 until more prospects graduate to the Cubs fulltime if they want to really compete.

Glasnow being on a 1 year deal would benefit the Cubs if they acquire Ohtani because Ohtani can't pitch next year and it would fill that gap.  If they signed Ohtani plus another SP (ie. Imanaga) to a longterm deal to replace Stroman then in 2025 and beyond they would have Ohtani, Imanaga, and Taillon on longterm deals while only having 2 spots left for Steele, Horton, Wicks, Brown etc.

If they sign Ohtani I could see the Cubs trying to trade for a good SP with 1 year left on their contracts, like Glasnow, Bieber, Burnes etc.  So maybe any prospect the Cubs wouldn't really miss would be find to send to the Rays.  Apparently the Cubs have inquired about Glasnow and Bieber which makes sense:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cubs-trade-rumors-shane-bieber-guardians-reds.html

Only crappy thing is the SP market has been moving fast so far, hopefully the Cubs don't miss out on most of the good arms before an Ohtani deal is decided.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I honestly don't know much about Glasgow but, based on what I've seen written about him over the past few days, is he the 2023 version of Rich Harden?

[Stratos]

If we do sign Ohtani that's probably like 50m towards the CBT.  I could see them then trading for TORP SP on a 1-year (Bieber, Glasnow, Burnes), signing some pen arms and calling it an offseason.  Maybe they also grab a cheap or modest bat in CF or 1B, but they probably wouldn't need to.

They could go with Madrigal plus Wisdom/Morel at 3B, and go with Morel/Mervis at 1B, and Tauchman/Canario in CF with PCA also available later in the season.  Not the ideal of course and i'd like them to spend more, but that would still bring the Cubs a bit over the CBT line depending on the SP they acquire.  The addition of Ohtani would more than make up for the loss of Bellinger's bat.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

If we do sign Ohtani that's probably like 50m towards the CBT.  I could see them then trading for TORP SP on a 1-year (Bieber, Glasnow, Burnes), signing some pen arms and calling it an offseason.  Maybe they also grab a cheap or modest bat in CF or 1B, but they probably wouldn't need to.

They could go with Madrigal plus Wisdom/Morel at 3B, and go with Morel/Mervis at 1B, and Tauchman/Canario in CF with PCA also available later in the season.  Not the ideal of course and i'd like them to spend more, but that would still bring the Cubs a bit over the CBT line depending on the SP they acquire.  The addition of Ohtani would more than make up for the loss of Bellinger's bat.

I hope they do more than that. I agree with the part on the one year pitcher. That is why I mention Glasnow. I think there is no way they get Burnes. And if they get Ohtani and Glasnow/Beiber and stop, I wouldn’t be happy. I want another pitcher and another bat.

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I honestly don't know much about Glasgow but, based on what I've seen written about him over the past few days, is he the 2023 version of Rich Harden?

Yes but with less games played, less innings, and less fWAR in 8 seasons. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I literally might vomit if Jed even considered this trade. From an MLBTR chat.

Mariners

1:48

Matt Shaw and Christopher Morel to Seattle for Bryce Miller and Justin Tops?

 

Steve Adams

1:48

I'm not as big on Morel as a lot of Cubs fans. I wouldn't take him as the headliner in a Miller deal, personally

Yep, no thank you on that deal.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:03 PM, Tim said:

A couple things:

NSBB had a significant Murton obsession, also.

I'm not convinced the door is closed to Morel at 3B this coming season. I'm sure Counsell will make up his own mind about that if Morel is still on the team. I think they'll want the bat in the game. If they sign Ohtani, I think they give Morel time at 3B.

We'll see.

I have a Matt Murton game worn West Tenn Diamond Jaxx jersey, so there's that. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

4 hours ago, ILMindState said:

Japan is home to some of the world's leading manufacturers and robotics companies. As of 2022, 45% of all industrial robots in the world were originally produced or designed by companies in Japan.

The initial notice was a physical appearance black.

[thawv]

16 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

So again. We aren’t getting him then. It not just the Cubs they are trading with. I don’t understand your worry about money. If he pitches well who cares what he makes? If he cost Wesnecki and Thompson, who cares. Is he better than those guys? Yes. Are those guys even sure things to be in the team in 25? No! So if he helps you win next year and then in 25’ either Horton takes his spot, or if they sign Ohtani, he takes his spot, who really cares about the payroll in 24’? No, I wouldn’t give up a top prospect. I wouldn’t give up Morel. But the Xubs have a lot of redundant arms they can move. And if he pitches close to as a starter who is TOR quality, I really am not all all concerned about 24’s payroll.

Exactly this.  How many middle of the row relievers do we want to carry in the system?

[thawv]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

If we do sign Ohtani that's probably like 50m towards the CBT.  I could see them then trading for TORP SP on a 1-year (Bieber, Glasnow, Burnes), signing some pen arms and calling it an offseason.  Maybe they also grab a cheap or modest bat in CF or 1B, but they probably wouldn't need to.

They could go with Madrigal plus Wisdom/Morel at 3B, and go with Morel/Mervis at 1B, and Tauchman/Canario in CF with PCA also available later in the season.  Not the ideal of course and i'd like them to spend more, but that would still bring the Cubs a bit over the CBT line depending on the SP they acquire.  The addition of Ohtani would more than make up for the loss of Bellinger's bat.

It's pretty clear that if they want to compete for the WS this season, they are going to blow by the 237 number.  They likely have a budget of 257 without signing Ohtani, and 277 with signing him.  To leave some extra room for deadlines, I'd expect the Cubs to spend 65-85 million this off season.  I wouldn't be surprised if they spent up to 85 million without signing Ohtani.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

It's pretty clear that if they want to compete for the WS this season, they are going to blow by the 237 number.  They likely have a budget of 257 without signing Ohtani, and 277 with signing him.  To leave some extra room for deadlines, I'd expect the Cubs to spend 65-85 million this off season.  I wouldn't be surprised if they spent up to 85 million without signing Ohtani.

I think the bigger issue with payroll is the Cubs ability to get back under the LT in 25’ more so than what they spend in 24’. That is why Glasnow and his salary doesn’t concern me. In 25’ Horton takes his spot. Maybe Ben Brown. Maybe Ohtani. In 25’ they have $50M+ coming off and all pretty much easily replaceable players or even dead money. Basically they lose Hendricks and Gomes. One ca  be replaced internally and the other with a cheaper contract for a back up catcher. One year of over the LT isn’t going to hurt them. But to me the real goal is to be back under in 25’. 

[thawv]

42 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the bigger issue with payroll is the Cubs ability to get back under the LT in 25’ more so than what they spend in 24’. That is why Glasnow and his salary doesn’t concern me. In 25’ Horton takes his spot. Maybe Ben Brown. Maybe Ohtani. In 25’ they have $50M+ coming off and all pretty much easily replaceable players or even dead money. Basically they lose Hendricks and Gomes. One ca  be replaced internally and the other with a cheaper contract for a back up catcher. One year of over the LT isn’t going to hurt them. But to me the real goal is to be back under in 25’. 

I think that the goal should be to get to 277 million this year.  Drop 50 million after next year and they are 14 million under.  It might not be that easy, but they have guys on payroll to figure that out.

[Rcal10]

Just now, thawv said:

I think that the goal should be to get to 277 million this year.  Drop 50 million after next year and they are 14 million under.  It might not be that easy, but they have guys on payroll to figure that out.

But they could go higher as long as who they take is on a one year deal and his salary would drop off as well in 25’. So using your numbers at $277M if they know Glasnow is gone after this year or even Bieber at $12M they could conceivably go to over $300M with Glasnow and around $290M with Bieber and still be under in 25’. 
Now, I know they are not doing that. TR wouldn’t sign off on that. I am just saying they could and only be over the LT for one year.  Or if they did go to $277M or $280M this year but a portion of that is to either Glasnow, Bieber or another guy they plan on having for just next year, that drops off in 25’ too. So that might have $65-$75 dropping of in 25’. Enoughto be well under and even make some moves where they  might add salary in 25’ and still be under.

[thawv]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But they could go higher as long as who they take is on a one year deal and his salary would drop off as well in 25’. So using your numbers at $277M if they know Glasnow is gone after this year or even Bieber at $12M they could conceivably go to over $300M with Glasnow and around $290M with Bieber and still be under in 25’. 
Now, I know they are not doing that. TR wouldn’t sign off on that. I am just saying they could and only be over the LT for one year.  Or if they did go to $277M or $280M this year but a portion of that is to either Glasnow, Bieber or another guy they plan on having for just next year, that drops off in 25’ too. So that might have $65-$75 dropping of in 25’. Enoughto be well under and even make some moves where they  might add salary in 25’ and still be under.

You're right, but if they're concerned about the higher penalties, they probably wouldn't do that.  I think they should if they want to win a WS.  The penalties shouldn't be something that prevents them from trying to win a WS.  But I'm sure it will.

The penalty is 20% up to 257...32% up to 277...62.5% up to 297...80% after that.

I also understand that if the go to 290 lets say, the penalty for that would be an additional 8.125 million. 

So at the end of the day, not knowing what their budget is, we have no idea what their plans are.  I chose the 3rd level because I don't think they want to pay an extra 62.5% in penalties.

So, if the go to the 2nd level, they would pay, 4 million in penalties.  If they got to the 3rd level, they would pay an additional 6.4 million.  If the went up to the 4th level, they would pay an additional 12.5 million.  So, for the sake of this conversation, if they went to 297 million, they would pay 22.9 million in penalties, bringing the payroll up to almost 320 million.  I could be wrong, but this just doesn't sound like something the Cubs would do.  I hope that I'm wrong.

 

 

 

[Tryptamine]

I'm still in, I'll believe when I see it, when it comes to bumping up the payroll like that.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm still in, I'll believe when I see it, when it comes to bumping up the payroll like that.

I know they aren’t going close to $300M. But they have to go over the LT this year. It makes too much sense as long as they are back under in 25’. That said, for me, I think it is wrong for a large market to worry about that sort of thing. But based on past experience, I am certainTR won’t live over the LT too long even if they go over in 24(which IMO, they have to).