Blackhawks 2023-24 Season - Bedard luck this year

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Y2J said:

I don't know if the Ducks ask their season ticket holders for end of the year suggestions like the Cubs do, but please relentlessly ask for the teal and eggplant to come back full-time. Anaheim's current set is atrocious and they have one of the best color combos in sports just waiting to be brought back.

That's pretty much the consensus here too. The owners really like the D-shield logo, they personally commissioned it, so we're stuck with it.

[Y2J]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

That's pretty much the consensus here too. The owners really like the D-shield logo, they personally commissioned it, so we're stuck with it.

Probably showing my age, but you say "name an all-time Anaheim Ducks great" and the first guy that will always pop up in my head is Paul Kariya. When I think Ducks, I think Kariya, and when I think Kariya, I see him in the teal/eggplant. 

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

This is called overfitting. You wait until after something happens, then calculate how improbable it was. But you wouldn't have noticed it if you hadn't been looking for improbable things, and *something* improbable is always going to happen.

Yeah, I was going to say something like what if you took the 4 out of 6 years where Edmonton ended up with the number 1 pick and just changed the result  in three of those years so that the team that got the second or third pick switched places with Edmonton.  No one would look back and notice anything that seemed fishy, but the odds of that result would probably be very close to the 0.3% he is saying it was for Edmonton to get the 1st pick that many times (if not lower since Edmonton had the best, second best or 3rd best odds for all four of those 1st picks.  In fact one of the years, they didn't even win the draft lottery, but the team that did (New Jersey) was too far away and could only move up from 8th to 4th I believe, so it defaulted to the team with the worst record Edmonton).

It's sort of like flipping a coin ten times and getting 10 heads in a row vs HTTHTHHTHT in that order.  The two have exactly the same odds of occurring, yet, the former feels a lot less likely.  

  

[17 Seconds]

1 hour ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

I don’t care if it’s rigged, the BHawks got BEDARD and the rest of the NHL. can suck it

 

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

51 minutes ago, Y2J said:

I don't know if the Ducks ask their season ticket holders for end of the year suggestions like the Cubs do, but please relentlessly ask for the teal and eggplant to come back full-time. Anaheim's current set is atrocious and they have one of the best color combos in sports just waiting to be brought back.

I do agree with stuff like this.  I hate when teams have an awesome logo/color scheme and do something terrible instead.  Like when the Brewers changed from one of the best logos (and jerseys/color scheme) in sports to the boring stuff they wore from the late 90's until recently.  The ducks current jerseys/colors are some of the most boring in all of sports.  It honestly makes me root against them even though I wouldn't normally care.  Their old logo is fun. 

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

I do agree with stuff like this.  I hate when teams have an awesome logo/color scheme and do something terrible instead.  Like when the Brewers changed from one of the best logos (and jerseys/color scheme) in sports to the boring stuff they wore from the late 90's until recently.  The ducks current jerseys/colors are some of the most boring in all of sports.  It honestly makes me root against them even though I wouldn't normally care.  Their old logo is fun. 

Brewers were smart enough to switch back

Edited October 3, 2023 by Derwood

[Brian707]

2 hours ago, Y2J said:

Chicago was +650 to land the 1st overall pick. Just interesting how it all ended up playing out. 

Those were terrible odds. They were 10% to get him, so anything less than +900 was a rip-off. 

[Brian707]

1 hour ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

I do agree with stuff like this.  I hate when teams have an awesome logo/color scheme and do something terrible instead.  Like when the Brewers changed from one of the best logos (and jerseys/color scheme) in sports to the boring stuff they wore from the late 90's until recently.  The ducks current jerseys/colors are some of the most boring in all of sports.  It honestly makes me root against them even though I wouldn't normally care.  Their old logo is fun. 

Yeah loved the Ducks from the 90's jersey. Also loved the Hartford Whalers, but they became the Carolina Hurricanes UGH

 

[bukie]

Part of me feels like I should rename this to the "Learn how probability works" thread and start a fresh thread for actual Blackhawks discussion.

[CubinNY]

lol, this thread.

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, PosterToBeNamedLater said:

Yeah, I was going to say something like what if you took the 4 out of 6 years where Edmonton ended up with the number 1 pick and just changed the result  in three of those years so that the team that got the second or third pick switched places with Edmonton.  No one would look back and notice anything that seemed fishy, but the odds of that result would probably be very close to the 0.3% he is saying it was for Edmonton to get the 1st pick that many times (if not lower since Edmonton had the best, second best or 3rd best odds for all four of those 1st picks.  In fact one of the years, they didn't even win the draft lottery, but the team that did (New Jersey) was too far away and could only move up from 8th to 4th I believe, so it defaulted to the team with the worst record Edmonton).

It's sort of like flipping a coin ten times and getting 10 heads in a row vs HTTHTHHTHT in that order.  The two have exactly the same odds of occurring, yet, the former feels a lot less likely.  

  

This reminds me of an argument I heard on the radio during one of the big power balls and they were arguing whether or not something like 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 was a bad powerball play or not.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

This reminds me of an argument I heard on the radio during one of the big power balls and they were arguing whether or not something like 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 was a bad powerball play or not.

Yep.  Every poker hand in history, every lottery draw, has been insanely low odds, but one of them has to hit.

What you're measuring when you do things like "these are the odds of edmonton winning all those picks" is actually measuring how likely it was for anything unlikely enough to warrant your notice happening, which is actually pretty damn likely.

[WrigleyField 22]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Yep.  Every poker hand in history, every lottery draw, has been insanely low odds, but one of them has to hit.

What you're measuring when you do things like "these are the odds of edmonton winning all those picks" is actually measuring how likely it was for anything unlikely enough to warrant your notice happening, which is actually pretty damn likely.

I was just happy there was at least one non idiot arguing the counterpoint correctly.

[jersey cubs fan]

It’s funny to use boxing to support idea that sports are fixed when everybody knows boxing is so easily fixed. It’s basically decided by 6 individuals and any one of them can screw with the outcome via shenanigans. 
 

the draft wasn’t fixed. The Blackhawks were really bad and therefore had some of the best odds to win it. 

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

Those were terrible odds. They were 10% to get him, so anything less than +900 was a rip-off. 

I would never say a +650 line is a rip off. I put $1,000 on it. I’ll take that win everyday if I can.

I wish I had had the presence of mind to screenshot the rest of the odds. I can’t recall what the others were.

[Brian707]

2 minutes ago, Y2J said:

I would never say a +650 line is a rip off. I put $1,000 on it. I’ll take that win everyday if I can.

I wish I had had the presence of mind to screenshot the rest of the odds. I can’t recall what the others were.

Well you cost yourself $2500 then. 

[Y2J]

6 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Well you cost yourself $2500 then. 

No, FanDuel cost me $2500. 

[Y2J]

50 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

It’s funny to use boxing to support idea that sports are fixed when everybody knows boxing is so easily fixed. It’s basically decided by 6 individuals and any one of them can screw with the outcome via shenanigans. 
 

the draft wasn’t fixed. The Blackhawks were really bad and therefore had some of the best odds to win it. 

The outcome of any sport can be screwed with by a small handful of people. Boxing was just an obvious one that came to mind, but the same could be argued about the NFL and with many examples. 

[Brian707]

Maybe this discussion should move here?

 

 

[Y2J]

How many of you believe there’s intelligent alien life somewhere in the universe? Likely, more than a few, but the idea that a multi-billion dollar organization would manipulate where their next superstar talent would or better yet wouldn’t go is far fetched. 😂 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

15 minutes ago, Y2J said:

How many of you believe there’s intelligent alien life somewhere in the universe? Likely, more than a few, but the idea that a multi-billion dollar organization would manipulate where their next superstar talent would or better yet wouldn’t go is far fetched. 😂 

You keep trying to reduce it to this vague "would a professional sport, somewhere, rig things for money."

Sure they would.  But we're talking about a very specific example and giving you very specfic details about why it specifically doesn't work in this case.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The blackhawks bring in about $225m/year in revenue.  Let's say Bedard does something insane like boost a team's revenue by 40% (he doesn't, but I'm going absurdly over the top to make the point)..  That means having Bedard in Chicago adds $90m/year in revenue to the league totals, whereas a poverty market Anaheim would only go from $150m to $210m.  So Bedard in Chicago is worth $30m in extra revenue for the league.

The Anaheim Ducks, assuming they stayed in the bottom 10 in revenue, would get a share from a pool equal to 6% of the league's total revenue, on average 0.6% (more or less depending on how low they finish in the revenue list, but that's the average). 

So if the Ducks were in on this conspiracy, the Ducks owner gave up a 25% chance at $60m/year in revenue in exchange for about $1.8m in extra revenue sharing.

The Montreal Canadiens are about the same revenue level of the Blackhawks, so they would have had to have voluntarily given up their 8.5% chance at $60m/year for absolutely bupkis, they do not receive revenue sharing.

So either, and you *have* to pick one of these:

1) Bettman went into business for himself with no personal motivation or stake to make the Chicago owner richer at the expense of 10 of his other bosses

or

2) The other owners personally gave up millions of dollars in value for their own pockets in order to make the Chicago owner richer.

Which is it?

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You keep trying to reduce it to this vague "would a professional sport, somewhere, rig things for money."

Sure they would.  But we're talking about a very specific example and giving you very specfic details about why it specifically doesn't work in this case.

No, the actual discussion in this thread has just been overshadowed by those who just want to point and scream “you silly conspiracy theorist!” When it comes to such, the truth lies somewhere between. If you are the type to buy into them all, you’re a fool. If you’re the type to think they’re all bunk, you’re also a fool. 
 

That has nothing to do with you. At least you have offered actual discussion and I appreciate that.

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

The blackhawks bring in about $225m/year in revenue.  Let's say Bedard does something insane like boost a team's revenue by 40% (he doesn't, but I'm going absurdly over the top to make the point)..  That means having Bedard in Chicago adds $90m/year in revenue to the league totals, whereas a poverty market Anaheim would only go from $150m to $210m.  So Bedard in Chicago is worth $30m in extra revenue for the league.

The Anaheim Ducks, assuming they stayed in the bottom 10 in revenue, would get a share from a pool equal to 6% of the league's total revenue, on average 0.6% (more or less depending on how low they finish in the revenue list, but that's the average). 

So if the Ducks were in on this conspiracy, the Ducks owner gave up a 25% chance at $60m/year in revenue in exchange for about $1.8m in extra revenue sharing.

The Montreal Canadiens are about the same revenue level of the Blackhawks, so they would have had to have voluntarily given up their 8.5% chance at $60m/year for absolutely bupkis, they do not receive revenue sharing.

So either, and you *have* to pick one of these:

1) Bettman went into business for himself with no personal motivation or stake to make the Chicago owner richer at the expense of 10 of his other bosses

or

2) The other owners personally gave up millions of dollars in value for their own pockets in order to make the Chicago owner richer.

Which is it?

The idea that the draft could not or would not ever be rigged was dismissed with the very first. Crosby was absolutely gifted to the Penguins to save the franchise. 
 

As far as revenue sharing, you’re assuming that Bedard has the same effect on every franchise, right? Bedard doesn’t generate the same revenue as a Coyote as he does a Blackhawk, or even a Duck for that matter. You’re essentially leaving millions on the table if he ends up in Arizona. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Y2J said:

The idea that the draft could not or would not ever be rigged was dismissed with the very first. Crosby was absolutely gifted to the Penguins to save the franchise. 
 

As far as revenue sharing, you’re assuming that Bedard has the same effect on every franchise, right? Bedard doesn’t generate the same revenue as a Coyote as he does a Blackhawk, or even a Duck for that matter. You’re essentially leaving millions on the table if he ends up in Arizona. 

*Who* is leaving millions on the table?

You keep talking about the NHL like it's a single person, but it's not.