Cubs off day 9/25

[UMFan83]

Good to see some teams are actually able to take advantage of the Diamondbacks terrible bullpen.  6-4 now

[Irrelevant Dude]

Well, the Yankees did their job.  Now we just need some help from the White Sox.  That isn't too much to ask, is it?

[UMFan83]

THHEEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN

OK, so this is how we will enter do-or-die week.... 3 teams separated by 1 game, playing for 2 playoff spots.

 

Current Standings:

WC2: ARI 82-74 (tied but win tiebreaker over CHC)

WC3: CHC 82-74 --

--------------------

OUT: MIA 81-75 1 GB

OUT: CIN 80-77 2.5 GB

 

Schedules: 

ARI:  3 @ CWS, 3 vs. HOU

CHC: 3 @ ATL, 3 @ MIL

MIA: 3 @ NYM, 3 @ PIT

CIN: 2 @ CLE, 3 @ STL

 

If the Cubs go 3-3...

Arizona needs to go 2-4 or worse to finish behind Cubs (magic number to eliminate is 7)

Miami needs to go 3-3 or worse to finish behind the Cubs (magic number to eliminate is 6)

Cincinnati needs to go 5-0 (magic number to eliminate is 5)

Edited September 25, 2023 by UMFan83

[Brian707]

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

THHEEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN

OK, so this is how we will enter do-or-die week.... 3 teams separated by 1 game, playing for 2 playoff spots.

 

Current Standings:

WC2: ARI 82-74 (tied but win tiebreaker over CHC)

WC3: CHC 82-74 --

--------------------

OUT: MIA 81-75 1 GB

OUT: CIN 80-77 2.5 GB

 

Schedules: 

ARI:  3 @ CWS, 3 vs. HOU

CHC: 3 @ ATL, 3 @ MIL

MIA: 3 @ NYM, 3 @ PIT

CIN: 2 @ CLE, 3 @ STL

 

If the Cubs go 3-3...

Arizona needs to go 2-4 or worse to finish behind Cubs

Miami needs to go 3-3 or worse to finish behind the Cubs

Cincinnati cannot catch Cubs

If Reds go 5-0 don’t they tie them and win tie breaker? 

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Well, the Yankees did their job.  Now we just need some help from the White Sox.  That isn't too much to ask, is it?

The White Sox do get to face the ****** part of their rotation that only the Cubs can't hit for the first 2 games.  Chance they can steal one but not counting on it.

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

If Reds go 5-0 don’t they tie them and win tie breaker? 

Yeah thats what I get for rushing the post out.  Correct if the Cubs go 3-3 Cincinnati has to go 5-0.  There's also 3 and 4 team tiebreaker scenarios to consider but the Cubs don't win any of them unless San Francisco or San Diego is involved and...thats not happening.

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Hopefully the White Sox can find a way to take 1 and Seattle takes 2 of 3 from Houston.

Dream scenario is that Houston sweeps Arizona but still misses out. Might need a Seattle sweep for that.

[Irrelevant Dude]

7 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Cubs go 3-3...

Arizona needs to go 2-4 or worse to finish behind Cubs

Miami needs to go 3-3 or worse to finish behind the Cubs

 

Now if the Cubs go 4-2, then the only way they miss the playoffs is if Miami goes 5-1 or better AND Arizona goes 4-2 or better.  I like those odds, so let's do that.

[CubinNY]

I never want to hear someone say a game in April or May is not important. 

 

But I will. 

[Tryptamine]

If only they didn't completely piss down their own leg against Arizona, we're talking about who they're going to line up for their playoff matchup instead of if they'll even be in the postseason.

[17 Seconds]

6 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I never want to hear someone say a game in April or May is not important. 

 

But I will. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN202305070.shtml

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If only they didn't completely piss down their own leg against Arizona, we're talking about who they're going to line up for their playoff matchup instead of if they'll even be in the postseason.

If they would stop their practice of trying to create a bullpen during the first month and a half of the season, that would be good too. 

[UMFan83]

11 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN202305070.shtml

There are so many with Miami.  I believe all 4 of the losses against them were by 1 run.  Win 1 of those and we're up 3 games instead of 1 AND we'd own the tiebreaker over them (season series tied 3-3, Cubs have clinched better intradivisional record thus winning the tiebreaker).  We'd be basically 4 games up with 6 to play and probably at like 96% playoff odds right now.

Or win that extra inning game we were 1 strike away from winning in Arizona (or the extra inning game in Chicago where Gomes missed a walkoff HR by a couple of inches) and we're 2 games ahead of them and Miami. 

 

We won some fluke ones too, that stuff tends to even out for most teams over 162, but yeah kind of painful to think about, so I won't after hitting Submit

[soccer10k]

29 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Now if the Cubs go 4-2, then the only way they miss the playoffs is if Miami goes 5-1 or better AND Arizona goes 4-2 or better.  I like those odds, so let's do that.

If the Cubs go 6-0 they make the playoffs. Let’s do that.

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

There are so many with Miami.  I believe all 4 of the losses against them were by 1 run.  Win 1 of those and we're up 3 games instead of 1 AND we'd own the tiebreaker over them (season series tied 3-3, Cubs have clinched better intradivisional record thus winning the tiebreaker).  We'd be basically 4 games up with 6 to play and probably at like 96% playoff odds right now.

Or win that extra inning game we were 1 strike away from winning in Arizona (or the extra inning game in Chicago where Gomes missed a walkoff HR by a couple of inches) and we're 2 games ahead of them and Miami. 

 

We won some fluke ones too, that stuff tends to even out for most teams over 162, but yeah kind of painful to think about, so I won't after hitting Submit

Has Miami lost any fluke ones?  Seems all they do is win one run games, about time things even out.

[UMFan83]

Just now, gflore34 said:

Has Miami lost any fluke ones?  Seems all they do is win one run games, about time things even out.

I'm sure they've lost some fluke ones, but yeah they are one of the major outliers with their ridiculous record in 1 run games.  

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I'm sure they've lost some fluke ones, but yeah they are one of the major outliers with their ridiculous record in 1 run games.  

For some reason I thought their luck had evened out a bit, but I just checked and... 32-13 in 1-run games and a -51 run differential overall???  That makes me sick.

[UMFan83]

Cubs playoff odds at 59.1% now after Arizona's loss.  A couple of days ago they had the Cubs division odds at 0.0%, we've managed to increase it to 0.1%! 

Arizona drops to 76.9%, Miami 55.8%, Reds hanging in there at 8.1%, and SD/SF each have a tragic number of 2 so are now at 0.0%

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

A couple of days ago they had the Cubs division odds at 0.0%, we've managed to increase it to 0.1%! 

So you're telling me there's a chance!

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

So you're telling me there's a chance!

Obviously, there's virtually no chance, but there's certainly a better chance when there are 3 H2H matchups left.  The hard part is getting a sweep in ATL and getting STL to sweep MIL.  If by some miracle that happens, we then control our destiny.  What an amazing story that would be to be 8 games out with 8 to play and still win the division.

OK time to stop day dreaming and come back to reality.

Edited September 25, 2023 by UMFan83

[Tim]

38 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If they would stop their practice of trying to create a bullpen during the first month and a half of the season, that would be good too. 

Well, they did think they'd have about 4-5 more pitchers who all got hurt at the start of the year. The bullpen looks much different in April / May if even just Hughes & Keegan are healthy / effective. Then much of the depth guys they were counting on had issues of their own like Estrada's implosion. They had 12-13 pretty decent options - unfortunately that just wasn't enough.

[UMFan83]

Someone asked about Candelario yesterday, forgot that I saw this:

Maybe Candelario comes back this series and Alzolay back before Milwaukee?

[Dfan25]

So now we have 2 different reporters ( Mooney and Nightendale ) saying it’s highly likely that Stroman will opt in for next year . I have that feeling as well . If this happens I think they will pickup Hendricks option and leave Wicks as the main depth in Iowa with Brown . 
 

I would expect them to add a power SP and that’s it for the rotation . Expecting Smyly to opt in and be in the bullpen and I would think Asad even though he has 3 options has established himself with the team for next year bullpen. 
 

SP - Steele

SP ? 
 

SP - Stroman 

SP - Hendricks 

SP - Taillon 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Dfan25

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Random question.... which would be your preferred option of these five choices for 2024:

-Stroman and no Hendricks for $22.5m

-Stroman and Hendricks for $38m

-Hendricks and no Stroman for $16m

-Neither for $1.5m (Hendricks buyout)

-Stroman for $21m and Cubs opt-out on Hendricks with a 50% chance of signing him back for $8-11m

I hope for neither..

Stroman will likely opt in, so hopefully they'll look to trade him then.

Kyle,  buy him out and say thank you

They need to try and trade for an under 30 Ace to go with Steele, Wicks, Assad, and Taillon.

Their depth would be in no particular order.

Horton,  Brown, Herz, Franklin, Palencia, Killian, Neidert, Wesneski , Powell , and whomever else they add.