Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[Rob]

I just wanna know if Yusei Kikuchi ever got his sushi.

Sometimes when I'm alone at night I just picture him like Huell being left alone at the end of Breaking Bad. Yusei just hanging out by himself in a darkened sushi restaurant, hoping the door will open....

[sweetpeteman]

His wife posted on Instagram that the rumor was fake, They had beef stew for dinner.

[chopsx9]

So what future justifies the contract.  If they don't win a world series - that'd have to be a bit of a disappointment?  Obviously more so if they don't even make one - or they make the next 10 but lose them all.  If Shohei never pitches again is it a disaster?  How much does the merchandising cushion it?  What do the next 10 years need to look like for you to acknowledge that the contract "worked out"?

[WhyCantWeWin]

21 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

So what future justifies the contract.  If they don't win a world series - that'd have to be a bit of a disappointment?  Obviously more so if they don't even make one - or they make the next 10 but lose them all.  If Shohei never pitches again is it a disaster?  How much does the merchandising cushion it?  What do the next 10 years need to look like for you to acknowledge that the contract "worked out"?

It already has kinda worked out. The contract numbers itself created a frenzy in the sports and non sports world. Ohtani is the most marketable mlb player in the game right now.

 

Everybody in Japan is a dodger fan now and someone mentioned on here that will likely create a pipeline of future npb talent wanting to play for the Dodgers. I saw that report that Sasaki wanted to be posted so that he could play with ohtani. Was that fake? Maybe yeah but that is a likely outcome of him signing with the Dodgers. The increased revenue of him being with the team will offset a lot of his cost. And this is all before he even takes the field. If he comes back hitting, they have a great DH. If he comes back pitching too then the Dodgers got a steal even at 700 mil. 

 

This case is unique to a unique player like ohtani. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by WhyCantWeWin

[Rob]

18 minutes ago, chopsx9 said:

So what future justifies the contract.  If they don't win a world series - that'd have to be a bit of a disappointment?  Obviously more so if they don't even make one - or they make the next 10 but lose them all.  If Shohei never pitches again is it a disaster?  How much does the merchandising cushion it?  What do the next 10 years need to look like for you to acknowledge that the contract "worked out"?

Honestly? There's no way to answer that question definitively.

From a marketing and merchandising perspective, so long as he stays relevant, it's possible that Ohtani pays for himself without even considering his on-field contributions. He may well create a generation of Dodgers fans, and set up a pipeline for future Japanese talent. Not to mention all the jerseys he'll sell.

While on-field value is easier to calculate, it's still tough. I haven't looked it up in a while, but not too long ago people were using roughly $8-9M as the value of a win on the free agent market. Taking the conservative number there, he'd need to be worth ~ 8.75 wins per season to be "worth" $70M per season. But that's not what he's actually being paid. So we need a better idea of what the net present value of his contract is to figure that out. If he's really only making $50M per season, he'd only need to be worth ~6.25 wins at $8M per win. Or as few as 5 wins if we end up at $10M per win on the market.

But even that isn't accurate -- as teams have largely tried to stop paying the below-average players the full value of their contributions. Instead, they're trying to concentrate wins on the roster -- a guy like Trout was considered to be worth more money just because it's hard to get that many wins in a single roster spot. Well, Ohtani is poster child for consolidating a bunch of production into a single roster spot. He basically creates a whole bench spot by being both the DH and a member of the starting rotation. So even if the market says $8M a win or whatever, being able to consolidate that much production into a single roster spot may be worth $12M or $15M.

So long story short -- we will never be able to accurately say whether he's been "worth" the contract or not unless we see something approaching either 99th percentile or 1st percentile outcomes here.

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

It already has kinda worked out. The contract numbers itself created a frenzy in the sports and non sports world. Ohtani is the most marketable mlb player in the game right now.

 

Everybody in Japan is a dodger fan now and someone mentioned on here that will likely create a pipeline of future npb talent wanting to play for the Dodgers. I saw that report that Sasaki wanted to be posted so that he could play with ohtani. Was that fake? Maybe yeah but that is a likely outcome of him signing with the Dodgers. The increased revenue of him being with the team will offset a lot of his cost. And this is all before he even takes the field. If he comes back hitting, they have a great DH. If he comes back pitching too then the Dodgers got a steal even at 700 mil. 

 

This case is unique to a unique player like ohtani. 

I mentioned that earlier and just imagine if Yamamoto ends up in LA. Good luck pulling any elite talent in Japan away from the Dodgers for the next 15 years. It'd be kind of similar to what WGN did for the Cubs for so long, but on a much grander and more concentrated scale.

[Jason Ross]

Holy horsefeathers. Ohtani is deferring $68m of his $70m every year. It brings his CBT to $46m. This is ridiculous.

[17 Seconds]

good luck jed

[JHBulls]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Holy horsefeathers. Ohtani is deferring $68m of his $70m every year. It brings his CBT to $46m. This is ridiculous.

So what does this all mean exactly? Do the Dodgers suddenly have $68 Million on their payroll in 11 years from now and for the next 10 years after that?

[cl smooth]

1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

So what does this all mean exactly? Do the Dodgers suddenly have $68 Million on their payroll in 11 years from now and for the next 10 years after that?

I could be reading this tweet incorrectly but he will be owed the $680M at the end of the 10 year contract. 

Edited December 11, 2023 by cl smooth

[KCCub]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Holy horsefeathers. Ohtani is deferring $68m of his $70m every year. It brings his CBT to $46m. This is ridiculous.

Yea I absolutely hate this loophole. 

[cl smooth]

 

[Bertz]

Ohtani was viewed as being worth approximately $450M a month ago, so basically this is a way for him and his agent to have the status and cache of of a $700M contract while the Dodgers pay him something closer to what he's actually worth?

[Jason Ross]

The Union should be stepping in. This is bad for every other player in the league. And it circumvents the luxury tax rule the owners, themselves, created. Pay the man, but don't let him loan the Dodgers 97% of his salary for a decade

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Bertz said:

Ohtani was viewed as being worth approximately $450M a month ago, so basically this is a way for him and his agent to have the status and cache of of a $700M contract while the Dodgers pay him something closer to what he's actually worth?

Yeah, it's not really a loophole, it's no different than a player taking a couple million less to play for a winner, or close to home, etc.  The only thing that is 'won' from this is various parties being able to technically claim the 700 number, which doesn't appear to have ever been a possibility from any suitor in PV terms.

[JHBulls]

2 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

I could be reading this tweet incorrectly but he will be owed the $680M at the end of the 10 year contract. 

Surely that will back onto their payroll at the end of the contract, otherwise the Dodgers have just signed Ohtani to an incredibly team friendly contract. They already have and won’t give a toss about it in a decade.

This just makes any Yamamoto signing the easiest decision for them. 

[Max Power]

One might think the Commissioner’s office would intervene. But then you remember the Commissioner’s office is a perpetual shitshow.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Max Power

[WhyCantWeWin]

Can Manfred void that deal because of the wild deferment? I ask this just because I'm becoming increasingly salty

[Andy]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Can Manfred void that deal because of the wild deferment? I ask this just because I'm becoming increasingly salty

I mean honestly by any reasonable (i.e. disgustingly pro-owner) standard, he should. This is obvious circumventing of the CBT.

[Rob]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Can Manfred void that deal because of the wild deferment? I ask this just because I'm becoming increasingly salty

Manfred always has the "best interests of baseball" clause. But he's unlikely to utilize it here.

[Bertz]

 

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

 

 

When's the next CBA up? Because I bet that's the last day of this rule.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Ohtani signed a straight up 10/460 deal when others had offered more, would we want that voided?  There's basically zero difference between that hypothetical and the actual deal, to Ohtani or to the CBT.

[cl smooth]

There’s been deferred money in long term deals before but nothing like this, right? MLB itself and the MLBPA are cool with a player getting ~97% of their total contract deferred until after the contract is over? 

[s2obed]

What’s the point of this? $680 million 10 years from now will be worth quite a bit less. Should’ve just signed for $480 for 10 years and gotten the $48 million annually now.