Post Draft Signings

[Tryptamine]

48 minutes ago, Tim said:

Why be neutral, though? All 19 other guys are signed already, so this has no impact on anyone else. Let's get that super high-risk, high-upside arm in the system.

Part of me would like them to basically get a redo in 2024, but all that really does is delay the talent another year. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Why be neutral, though? All 19 other guys are signed already, so this has no impact on anyone else. Let's get that super high-risk, high-upside arm in the system.

TBH, I'd rather they take the 69th pick in next year's draft. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

TBH, I'd rather they take the 69th pick in next year's draft. 

Wasn't this a historically deep draft?  If so, wouldn't next year's pick be worse, all things considered?

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Wasn't this a historically deep draft?  If so, wouldn't next year's pick be worse, all things considered?

I don't think that a blanket statement regarding the pick can be made. They are taking a gamble on this kid that his 50th percentile outcome is a major league relief pitcher. Given their pitching-producing engine in the minors, it's a safer bet than most organizations, but it's still a big risk. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think that a blanket statement regarding the pick can be made. They are taking a gamble on this kid that his 50th percentile outcome is a major league relief pitcher. Given their pitching-producing engine in the minors, it's a safer bet than most organizations, but it's still a big risk. 

Yep, and the same consensus about the depth of this draft didn't necessarily have Wiggins as one of the top 70 players.  Or would have that view of Wiggins after seeing whatever in the medical gave the Cubs pause(assuming that's the main hangup).

The other thing they might consider from a balancing perspective is what their plans are for both Bellinger and Free Agency.  This was literally the comp pick they got for Willson, so you can think of it as pushing the draft pool balancing back a year to protect the 2024 class against signing multiple QO Free Agents(or one + Bellinger).  Since Wiggins is in line for slot or slightly above, they wouldn't have really hurt the rest of their 2023 class in the process.

[Irrelevant Dude]

39 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yep, and the same consensus about the depth of this draft didn't necessarily have Wiggins as one of the top 70 players.  Or would have that view of Wiggins after seeing whatever in the medical gave the Cubs pause(assuming that's the main hangup).

The other thing they might consider from a balancing perspective is what their plans are for both Bellinger and Free Agency.  This was literally the comp pick they got for Willson, so you can think of it as pushing the draft pool balancing back a year to protect the 2024 class against signing multiple QO Free Agents(or one + Bellinger).  Since Wiggins is in line for slot or slightly above, they wouldn't have really hurt the rest of their 2023 class in the process.

If something showed up on post-draft medicals that made the Cubs reconsider "redeeming" that comp pick for damaged goods, then it is an understandable decision to punt the pick to next year.  If, on the other hand, the Cubs want to sign him but his demands are higher than the slight overslot that is likely being offered, that would be an uncharacteristic miscalculation on the Cubs' side.

Of course, he may still sign today and all this will be moot.

[Hrubes20]

21 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

If something showed up on post-draft medicals that made the Cubs reconsider "redeeming" that comp pick for damaged goods, then it is an understandable decision to punt the pick to next year.  If, on the other hand, the Cubs want to sign him but his demands are higher than the slight overslot that is likely being offered, that would be an uncharacteristic miscalculation on the Cubs' side.

Of course, he may still sign today and all this will be moot.

I'm going to go ahead and say that there is a 0% chance of this happening, unless Wiggins changed his demands post-draft.  

[Tryptamine]

Down to 2 hours, so I think it's pretty unlikely at this point. 

[Hrubes20]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Down to 2 hours, so I think it's pretty unlikely at this point. 

I think the deadline is 5PM EST, so a little more than 3 hours.  But yeah, probably unlikely.  

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

I think the deadline is 5PM EST, so a little more than 3 hours.  But yeah, probably unlikely.  

Ah, I assumed it was 4 EST since ESPN always lists times in EST.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cleaned out all but $100 of the full remaining amount of the 5% overage.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

13 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

I think the deadline is 5PM EST, so a little more than 3 hours.  But yeah, probably unlikely.  

Yes, the deadline is 5 EST.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Cleaned out all but $100 of the full remaining amount of the 5% overage.

Not that it matters with the other 19 guys already signed, but I'm pretty shocked he got a 300k overslot. The Cubs are clearly more enthused than I am. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

I guess it's good to hold out and be the last guy to sign.  It must make for an interesting conversation in the front office, whether a team draws a hard line and stays at/around slot even though they have money to spare, or do they just give the guy everything they have left.

[Hrubes20]

22 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Cleaned out all but $100 of the full remaining amount of the 5% overage.

Gross.  But whatever.  That ceiling is fun, regardless of how many obstacles there are to getting there.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

30 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Not that it matters with the other 19 guys already signed, but I'm pretty shocked he got a 300k overslot. The Cubs are clearly more enthused than I am. 

I wonder if they went in planning on going overslot with him or had to change their plans as he held out longer (like @Irrelevant Dude suggested).

[Jason Ross]

Glad he's signed.  I'm pretty high on this pick myself; I love the gamble.  Junior year is a big year for SEC arms and college arms in general, and an arm with his stuff entering his junior year is where we'd see it.  Sadly with the TJS we never saw it, but there's 1st round stuff.  Especially in a draft bereft of upside college arms past Waldrep, getting a possible top-junior, regardless of the injury, is a win to me.  The Cubs are really developing arms well.  They identify arms well.  

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I wonder if they went in planning on going overslot with him or had to change their plans as he held out longer (like @Irrelevant Dude suggested).

I have to believe they were planning on the overslot, otherwise they would have been leaving a significant chunk of money on the table that could have been used to upgrade one of their other picks.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I wonder if they went in planning on going overslot with him or had to change their plans as he held out longer (like @Irrelevant Dude suggested).

Considering he was a 2nd round selection, I'd assume they knew his number pre-draft.  As well, considering they got the other 19 signed, I doubt the Cubs are surprised by this over, as they could have used the $300K (and almost assuredly would have) elsewhere.  Not sure the hold up, but you can't gamble losing that kind of slot money.

[craig]

25 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Considering he was a 2nd round selection, I'd assume they knew his number pre-draft.  As well, considering they got the other 19 signed, I doubt the Cubs are surprised by this over, as they could have used the $300K (and almost assuredly would have) elsewhere.  Not sure the hold up, but you can't gamble losing that kind of slot money.

Yeah, Kantro analyzes every dollar,.  He totally knew the deal.  If he'd expected Wiggins to sign for slot, he'd have drafted some contingent overslot guys in Day 3, as he's done in previous drafts.  This was no surprise to Kantro.  Kantro loving Wiggins that much, and planning the overslot from the start, also adds context to Kantro's interviews.  I'd assumed "top-of-rotation" references was just draft-gush hyperbole for a sub-slot pick, but the dollar speak to how much upside they perceive.  .  

I'm still curious as to the delay.  Was Wiggins really considering going back to school, and pitching his way into the 1st round?  If so, he must have gotten upbeat reports from his TJ doctors.  But who knows, maybe his sister had a destination wedding; or his grandfather was in hospice.  Being in rehab anyway, there was no urgency to get signed and get onto the fields in Mesa.  

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, craig said:

Yeah, Kantro analyzes every dollar,.  He totally knew the deal.  If he'd expected Wiggins to sign for slot, he'd have drafted some contingent overslot guys in Day 3, as he's done in previous drafts.  This was no surprise to Kantro.  Kantro loving Wiggins that much, and planning the overslot from the start, also adds context to Kantro's interviews.  I'd assumed "top-of-rotation" references was just draft-gush hyperbole for a sub-slot pick, but the dollar speak to how much upside they perceive.  .  

I'm still curious as to the delay.  Was Wiggins really considering going back to school, and pitching his way into the 1st round?  If so, he must have gotten upbeat reports from his TJ doctors.  But who knows, maybe his sister had a destination wedding; or his grandfather was in hospice.  Being in rehab anyway, there was no urgency to get signed and get onto the fields in Mesa.  

This is going to make me sound far too self-important so please bare with me (I'm not important in the least) but I've got a pretty good connect when it comes to draft signings, and the lot (if you're familiar, I'm personal friends with the guy who runs Savermetrics) and even he was baffled by the delay.  There just wasn't noise out there as to why the delay...makes me *think* benign reasons like you mentioned about a wedding, etc.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Good read - sounds like Wiggins wanted the most he could get and it was wise the Cubs took care of Hope early.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

This is going to make me sound far too self-important so please bare with me (I'm not important in the least) but I've got a pretty good connect when it comes to draft signings, and the lot (if you're familiar, I'm personal friends with the guy who runs Savermetrics) and even he was baffled by the delay.  There just wasn't noise out there as to why the delay...makes me *think* benign reasons like you mentioned about a wedding, etc.

We are message board posters, as a species we *love* inside sources however questionable, vague, or potentially self-important(which in this case was zero, imo) they might be

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Good read - sounds like Wiggins wanted the most he could get and it was wise the Cubs took care of Hope early.

 

Yep, Greg with his usual excellent work.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

We are message board posters, as a species we *love* inside sources however questionable, vague, or potentially self-important(which in this case was zero, imo) they might be

Dude who runs Saver is not really an insider so much as the most badass internet detective on the planet.  With that said he's *become* more of an insider (I'm privy to a few folk who DM him) and he's becoming more of one.  Awesome version of a self-made internet man, truly.