So... what now?

[CubUgly]

14 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'll reiterate my take from a few weeks back that Actually David Ross is Good, and that most of the things people get upset at him for are either incorrect, ignoring one of a few factors that come with managing a team over 162 games, or looking for an outlet when a player simply doesn't succeed.

Sorry, I I'll reiterate my take in that I just can't agree with this.   Sighting specifics would take me some time but in particular bring Kay in the other day and inexplicably playing Morel in left in Houston were both inexcusable errors in my view.  That's two -  I could site multiple more in time.   I really could go on and on.  He really makes some hard to understand decisions that I don't think most managers would make in the same position....and with good reason.

Of course we could debate most of them I suppose, but I really think he makes some real head scratchers and he got a pass his first 3 years which you can debate the merits of but it's a fact, so no need rehashing, but he is finally getting some legit questioning at least from the fans, the Cubs press still seems reluctant to question him for the most part which is not all that surprising.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I want Mervis to get a meaningful opportunity to play 1B every day once he works things out in AAA

 

Since Mervis got sent back down in the middle of June, he's basically just gone back to being the same AAA killer he was before.....293/.408/.561. It's totally possible he's just an all time AAAA guy. But given that we know our first base production outside of him is going to top out at mediocre, I think it's an easy decision to bring him back up and give him the second half to sink or swim. 

[mul21]

26 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I don’t quite get the idea of noting there are multiple black holes in the lineup and then blaming Ross. It’s not a good roster. The good guys aren’t great and the bad players are terrible. That’s on the GM. 
 

Ross probably doesn’t matter. It’s the roster. 

In my mind, part of the black hole problem is the manager not putting the right players in the lineup.  Roster construction is certainly part of the issue but I think many of us have griped about the daily construction of the 9 hitters for much of the season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Sorry, I I'll reiterate my take in that I just can't agree with this.   Sighting specifics would take me some time but in particular bring Kay in the other day and inexplicably playing Morel in left in Houston were both inexcusable errors in my view.  That's two -  I could site multiple more in time.   I really could go on and on.  He really makes some hard to understand decisions that I don't think most managers would make in the same position....and with good reason.

Of course we could debate most of them I suppose, but I really think he makes some real head scratchers and he got a pass his first 3 years which you can debate the merits of but it's a fact, so no need rehashing, but he is finally getting some legit questioning at least from the fans, the Cubs press still seems reluctant to question him for the most part which is not all that surprising.

Your baseline expectation appears to be 'a manager that never does anything I find inexplicably bad', which will be a standard that no manager ever meets unless they have a team that is historically talented and injury-free.  Managers have more info than us and we often don't consider all the angles that they need to when scrutinizing their decisions, and managers are frequently(especially with flawed teams like the 2023 Cubs) put in position to make dozens of coin flip decisions regularly that some people interpret as obviously good v. inexcusably bad.  This doesn't mean that managers are immune from criticism on appeals to authority grounds, but at the same time the overwhelming majority of manager criticism isn't nearly as curious as they ought to be about why decisions they disagree with are actually made. Show me a manager that you think is better than Ross and it's extremely likely it's a manager with a much better team and a manager that you are not watching make decisions day in and day out.

[CubUgly]

11 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

This is a team that's currently 6 games under .500 after 84 games, with the Reds sitting at 47-39 in first place.  I don't believe a better manager/coaching staff would have gotten much more out of schmucks like Hosmer, Mancini, or Mastrobuoni.  I think the best we would have gotten out of a better manager/coaching staff would have been better allocations of playing time for younger players and maybe a better-structured bullpen, but you wouldn't have seen Suzuki be a 20 HR threat or Madrigal with a .375 OBP.  A better manager/coaching staff would not have given this team 10-12 additional wins to this point in the season.

This all comes down to roster construction.  Since the 2021 selloff, most of the problem comes from a lack of spending, but blame can also be assigned to lackluster production and injuries to promising position players in the farm system and also to certain free agency signings not panning out.

I'm also not willing to go all-in on the position talent in the high levels of the farm system at this point.  I think PCA is the only untouchable hitter, and I want Mervis to get a meaningful opportunity to play 1B every day once he works things out in AAA, but everyone else seems like they're at least 1-2 years away from even being called up.

Frankly, if they want to go fishing for a quality hitter with 2-3 years of team control (if one actually exists in this market), I'm in favor of it.

Playing Hosmer as much as he was played,  and batting him 5th in the order was on Ross.  Playing Mancini at first in England when Belli was available to play first was also on Ross.  Man, I can go on an on.

I get Jed's/front offices part in this and I don't disagree.   Both can be true.   But we all knew we'd have to win on the margins with the team we went into this season with and we knew the Central was not that strong.  Hell it's been worse than we expected even I think.   The division was there for the taking even given the limitations you have laid out.

Look at the Brewer's roster - they are one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball and their pitching has not been as great as advertised and they are what 6 games over .500.   They are winning games on the margins.  This matters!!  That's where managing comes in when your margin for error is small.  It ain't all on Rossi but to rationalize his part is leaving a significant part out in my opinion. 

 

 

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

5 minutes ago, mul21 said:

In my mind, part of the black hole problem is the manager not putting the right players in the lineup.  Roster construction is certainly part of the issue but I think many of us have griped about the daily construction of the 9 hitters for much of the season.

Yes, people gripe about the lineup every day. But that’s because of who is available on the roster. Hosmer played too much, but he was intentionally brought in to play too much. People begged for Mervis who came in and stunk. There aren’t good alternatives that Ross could be playing more to make this a much better team. That’s on the front office. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

(lineup construction barely matters)

((this team can barely use all the fringe mediocre prospects it has now, bringing in a bunch more in a selloff won't gain us anything)

[CubinNY]

51 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

(lineup construction barely matters)

((this team can barely use all the fringe mediocre prospects it has now, bringing in a bunch more in a selloff won't gain us anything)

it will gain a lot of information on who is a fringe prospect. Giving Mervis limited and sporadic ABs doesn't make him a fringe prospect. It's the same with the rest of them. They probably aren't anything but playing shlubs who are "veterans" isn't giving any information either. 

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Your baseline expectation appears to be 'a manager that never does anything I find inexplicably bad', which will be a standard that no manager ever meets unless they have a team that is historically talented and injury-free.  Managers have more info than us and we often don't consider all the angles that they need to when scrutinizing their decisions, and managers are frequently(especially with flawed teams like the 2023 Cubs) put in position to make dozens of coin flip decisions regularly that some people interpret as obviously good v. inexcusably bad.  This doesn't mean that managers are immune from criticism on appeals to authority grounds, but at the same time the overwhelming majority of manager criticism isn't nearly as curious as they ought to be about why decisions they disagree with are actually made. Show me a manager that you think is better than Ross and it's extremely likely it's a manager with a much better team and a manager that you are not watching make decisions day in and day out.

I would put it like this TT, my baseline expectation is that when you have to win on the margins, which this team has to do - you have less rope to make "inexplicably bad" decisions as a manager.  Even given that he's made in my opinion more than most.

 

As one of my examples, I don't know how much inside info was used to put Morel in left in Houston - one of the hardest left fields in all of baseball to play, and a kid that's hardly played left anywhere in his life.  That was not a coin flip decision that was black and white don't do this.   Again, I could go on an on with what I think are legit WTF decisions, but I get it, we ain't gonna agree here and that's fine - this forum is for debate and discussion and we've done that.   

I realize the roster limitations I just think Ross has exacerbated that. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

39 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

As one of my examples, I don't know how much inside info was used to put Morel in left in Houston - one of the hardest left fields in all of baseball to play, and a kid that's hardly played left anywhere in his life.  That was not a coin flip decision that was black and white don't do this.   Again, I could go on an on with what I think are legit WTF decisions, but I get it, we ain't gonna agree here and that's fine - this forum is for debate and discussion and we've done that.   

I realize the roster limitations I just think Ross has exacerbated that. 

Let's try to figure out why that happened then.  Happ was DH'd that day, which I think we can safely assume was a nod to get him some rest.  He had played 19 straight games in LF which also meant he had played in 19 of 20 days.  Nico was on the IL so Madrigal was at 2B.  Hosmer hadn't been DFA'd yet so he, Mancini, and Mervis were all on the roster.  That means that holding other starters in place, you have this group for 1B, 3B, and LF: Barnhart, Mervis, Mancini, Hosmer, Wisdom, Morel, Mastrobuoni

 

Other important context is that a very good LH SP(Framber Valdez) was on the mound for the Astros, which essentially makes the 3 choices choose themselves(Wisdom, Morel, Mancini).  Valdez doesn't have extreme splits so could they have snuck another LH in there?  Maybe, but imagine what fans would've said about the lineup that included Mastrobuoni against Valdez at the expense of Wisdom or Morel(who ended up combining to go 2/9 with a BB, 2B, and HR, for 3 RBI).

 

Mancini isn't an option at 3B or LF, so then the realistic choice we're left with then is which one Morel and Wisdom goes to.  At a baseline, you'd prefer Wisdom at 3B, it's the more important position and he's better at it.  Plus Wisdom had been playing 3B essentially every day for weeks and is the incumbent, so shuttling him to LF for a single game is at best a little odd, at worst damaging to Wisdom's productivity if he prefers consistency in his role.  Additionally, Morel hadn't played 3B since he was recalled and hadn't played 3B in over 3 weeks total, while playing OF most every day in Iowa.  So yes, he doesn't have copious experience in LF and Houston is a tricky option.  The alternative Ross had was 1) continuing to play Happ and risk wearing him down 2) punt on a lineup spot by playing Mastrobuoni over Wisdom or Morel or 3) weaken 3B defense to put Wisdom(who doesn't play much LF either) in that spot.  Maybe the best call was choosing one of those!  But the 'I can't believe he made this legit WTF decision' framing doesn't seem to hold up.  

 

I'm sure there's other choices that have less backing, and I have my complaints with Ross too.  But this is what I mean when I say that people don't interrogate why a given choice *was* made.  It's easy to say(doubly so with hindsight) that it was simple and an unforced error to do X, but to understand what the actual motivation was requires embracing that lots of these calls are very much shades of gray that don't have objective right and wrong answers.

[CubUgly]

15 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Let's try to figure out why that happened then.  Happ was DH'd that day, which I think we can safely assume was a nod to get him some rest.  He had played 19 straight games in LF which also meant he had played in 19 of 20 days.  Nico was on the IL so Madrigal was at 2B.  Hosmer hadn't been DFA'd yet so he, Mancini, and Mervis were all on the roster.  That means that holding other starters in place, you have this group for 1B, 3B, and LF: Barnhart, Mervis, Mancini, Hosmer, Wisdom, Morel, Mastrobuoni

 

 

Not a good game to rest Happ,  not a good park to rest Happ.  And again, Morel a kid who had hardly ever played left anywhere in his baseball career in that left field???? -  get Happ a rest back in Wrigley - if he can't play 3 more games shame on him - or better yet don't put Morel  in a position to fail miserably.   You say let's try to figure out why this happened, I've been trying to figure out what happened.  Your explanation honestly doesn't convince me and no one in the press asked Rossi after the game so we still don't know his reasoning.  I believe that decision cost us that game. 

I could do this with SEVERAL other very questionable Rossi decisions and you could come back with your view of a reasonable explanation and we could do that dance all day the rest of the day. 

Let's just say this - I think we could be several games better than we are now with the same roster and a different manager and right in contention in this division.  You don't.  We part as friends. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

it will gain a lot of information on who is a fringe prospect. Giving Mervis limited and sporadic ABs doesn't make him a fringe prospect. It's the same with the rest of them. They probably aren't anything but playing shlubs who are "veterans" isn't giving any information either. 

Will it, though? Will a two-month callup really settle anything on these guys?

[Outshined_One]

23 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Will it, though? Will a two-month callup really settle anything on these guys?

Data and information are needed to determine where the Cubs should allocate their resources in the offseason.  Two months should be enough time to determine if Mervis should be given an opportunity to be the everyday 1B in 2024, or if the Cubs should plan on finding a new starting 1B in the offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jared Young is currently playing 1B regularly, giving Mervis another shot doesn't require unblocking him on the roster.  The only people that conceivably would be true for are Morel(defense only), Wesneski(injuries and 6 man rotation could do that too) and Amaya.

[squally1313]

48 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Will it, though? Will a two-month callup really settle anything on these guys?

It's never black and white. More information is better than less information. If he comes back and shits the bed again in a bigger sample, then you probably wish him well and hope he's not the next Rizzo. If he puts up a .900 OPS, you roll the dice that he's not the next Hoffpauir. The most likely scenarios fall somewhere in the middle, and make it even less 'settled', but what we're doing now is essentially wasting ABs on guys with no future and also no present. 

[jersey cubs fan]

27 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Data and information are needed to determine where the Cubs should allocate their resources in the offseason.  Two months should be enough time to determine if Mervis should be given an opportunity to be the everyday 1B in 2024, or if the Cubs should plan on finding a new starting 1B in the offseason.

The cubs should plan on finding a new 1B in the offseason. 

[CubinNY]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jared Young is currently playing 1B regularly, giving Mervis another shot doesn't require unblocking him on the roster.  The only people that conceivably would be true for are Morel(defense only), Wesneski(injuries and 6 man rotation could do that too) and Amaya.

Jared Young is named Jared and he's not Young.

[CubUgly]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

then you probably wish him well and hope he's not the next Rizzo

I do keep hearing this comparison, but Rizzo was several years younger then Mervis when he was sent back down by the Padres, he was 21.  Mervis is 25.  That's a fairly significant difference.  

He'll get another shot, but maybe just one more.  You can rationalize it any way you want he was not good the first trip and even in spring training.  Let's hope second time is the charm. 

[Tim]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

Not a good game to rest Happ,  not a good park to rest Happ.  And again, Morel a kid who had hardly ever played left anywhere in his baseball career in that left field???? -  get Happ a rest back in Wrigley - if he can't play 3 more games shame on him - or better yet don't put Morel  in a position to fail miserably.   You say let's try to figure out why this happened, I've been trying to figure out what happened.  Your explanation honestly doesn't convince me and no one in the press asked Rossi after the game so we still don't know his reasoning.  I believe that decision cost us that game. 

I could do this with SEVERAL other very questionable Rossi decisions and you could come back with your view of a reasonable explanation and we could do that dance all day the rest of the day. 

Let's just say this - I think we could be several games better than we are now with the same roster and a different manager and right in contention in this division.  You don't.  We part as friends. 

Happ very well could have had a nagging injury that needed a break, too. TT's point is that the manager has access to a lot of information that we don't. Without that info, the decisions can look bad from the outside.

 

Also, while LF in Houston is funky, it's small. There's a fair probability that none of the quirks come into play and it's a good place to put a bad fielder. Plus it isn't like Morel hasn't played the OF at all.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In Anthony Rizzo's age-25 season, he put up an .899 OPS in the majors, finishing 4th in MVP voting and hit two homers in the NLDS series victory over the Cardinals.

In Matt Mervis' age-25 season, he put up a sub .600 OPS and failed to beat out the likes of Trey Mancini and Nick Madrigal for playing time, resulting in him being sent down for his fourth look at Iowa.

I'm not exactly worried we're gonna miss the boat on this one.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Rizzo comparison is not that Mervis is destined for Anthony Rizzo's career in full, it's that Rizzo(like many others) faceplanted in his first attempt at MLB and the Cubs were the beneficiaries of not writing him off.

More to this point, look no further than the offensive leaderboards for 1B this year and you'll see that putting things together in the mid-20s is not exactly unprecedented in the current era.  Luke Raley, Ryan Noda, Lamonte Wade, Yandy Diaz, Christian Walker.  Look back another year and you've got some of those names plus Ty France and Vinnie Pasquantino too.  Teams hoard prospects now so the way to disproportionate impact is guessing/developing right on the ones that need that one tweak or opportunity they didn't get before.  You extend that to your current roster by being careful not to write off players for having a poor initial impression.

[Tryptamine]

I still hate that Mervis was sent down with all the underlying stats trending in the right direction even if the results weren't there yet.

[CubUgly]

22 minutes ago, Tim said:

Happ very well could have had a nagging injury that needed a break, too. TT's point is that the manager has access to a lot of information that we don't. Without that info, the decisions can look bad from the outside.

I don't think so, he still batted and he played the next night, of course I can't prove that, but one could make that argument to defend the coach on almost any move.  Look,  I realize managers have information we don't I always try to factor that into my evaluations and opinions.  I'm not oblivious.  

As to "it's good to put a bad fielder in left in Houston because it's quirky",  I could not disagree more.  The same fly ball Morel botched Happ was waiting under for 3 seconds for a routine catch the next night.   I was there for two of the 3 games including the first when Morel was inexplicably (Rossi was never even asked by the press) put in left.   And while Morel has played outfield guess where he's played by for the least - you guessed it.....LF. 

 

And just to repeat so as not to be misunderstood, I'm not absolving the front office and dismissing roster issues.  I'm just saying it can be both - roster construction/development and managing issues.  And I think it is both and I do think a different manager would have us in a better position right now in a weak and vulnerable Central.  I like Rossi but likes got nothing to do with it. 

[Outshined_One]

Additionally, no one is meaningfully blocking Mervis on this roster.  The downside to Mervis sucking is that 1B continues to be an offensive black hole, which changes exactly nothing about how this team is currently performing on offense.

The fact that he literally isn't Anthony Rizzo should have zero bearing on whether he should get any playing time.

[Tim]

13 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

As to "it's good to put a bad fielder in left in Houston because it's quirky",  I could not disagree more.  

Not what I said. I said it being small makes it a good place to put a lesser defender. There's a decent probability in each game that the quirkiness doesn't come into play. Balance that against the small territory to cover and it's probably about a wash. 

Also, it's not like LF in Wrigley has no quirks.