So... what now?

[muntjack]

Come on, Mervis had 99 PAs.  99.

In that meager sample, he had a higher max EV than Rizzo, barreled a considerably higher % of balls (he barreled 2× as many as Madrigal has in his entire career), and had a much higher hard hit %.  He wasn't given a real chance at all. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by muntjack

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

The cubs should plan on finding a new 1B in the offseason. 

Just go get another one, how hard can it be? 

(Pulls up list of potential 1B free agents)

1. Joey Votto, 41 years old

2. Josh Bell, if he opts out of his player option, which I can't see happening on account of his current -0.2 fWAR

3. Max Muncy, if the Dodgers don't pick up his paltry $10m option, which is only really an option if he continues to hit .195 like he is right now

4. Rhys Hoskins, had ACL surgery in March, and so you have a three year stretch of 2.0 fWAR, 2.2 fWAR, and a ruined knee. Will be 31 next year.

5. Joey Gallo, hitting .190 this year with a 40% K rate, 0.7 fWAR

6. Brandon Belt, 0.8 fWAR on a .433 BABIP. Will be 36 next year.

7. Giovanny Urshela, do I really have to keep this list going, also he has a broken pelvis (and 0.4 fWAR in 228 PAs)

Do you know what this board would be doing if like, the horsefeathering Blue Jays or whatever had a dude who raked in AA/AAA last year, has raked in AAA this year, and had a rough 100 PAs in his debut? They would be trying to trade Stroman for him so they could pencil him in as the 2024 MLB first baseman after another mini rebuild. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by squally1313

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I generally hate the idea that you need to just hand mediocre prospects playing time because they're prospects.

There's value in having the organizational self-respect to make people earn playing time.  If you can't beat out some random 30-year old AAAA player for playing time then you aren't enough of a prospect to care about 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I generally hate the idea that you need to just hand mediocre prospects playing time because they're prospects.

There's value in having the organizational self-respect to make people earn playing time.  If you can't beat out some random 30-year old AAAA player for playing time then you aren't enough of a prospect to care about 

I mean, he's put up a .970 OPS since he got sent back down. Jared Young had a .733 OPS last year in AAA and had an .836 this year going into June. He had an all time month and he got rewarded for it, and I assume it will be short lived. I think most people here would agree that if you were looking at those two prospects, Mervis was, again, the better call up of the two. 

[muntjack]

Sure, in the case of a highly competitive team, a guy needs to hit the ground running. The '23 Cubs, even the version that went into London on a high, should still be keeping one eye on player development, especially for guys with potential game-changing power (which they sorely lack).  99 PAs of good peripherals and bad numbers, with no good alternative knocking at the door, was not enough to pull the plug.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Young was presumably the call up because it's intended to be short lived, with everyone healthy you've got to make a (potentially) more uncomfortable decision to get Mervis in there, so I take what I said back about Mervis being blocked.  It's not so much 1B it's the roster spots where the bottom of the roster is performing 'okay' so there isn't an obvious choice unless you cut Mancini, which is a more substantial one-way door compared to the alternatives.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

27 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Do you know what this board would be doing if like, the horsefeathering Blue Jays or whatever had a dude who raked in AA/AAA last year, has raked in AAA this year, and had a rough 100 PAs in his debut? They would be trying to trade Stroman for him so they could pencil him in as the 2024 MLB first baseman after another mini rebuild. 

I feel pretty confident that there's no 25-year-old AAAers out there that I'm absolutely dying to have, in any organization.

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I feel pretty confident that there's no 25-year-old AAAers out there that I'm absolutely dying to have, in any organization.

Sure, that was more based on 'sell all the good players for top 20 in the organization' comments from earlier. Though to be fair, I think it's a weird stretch with how covid delayed things. This might be outdated, but I count 9 prospects on the FG Top 100 list that have their ages listed as 25+. Wesneski being one of them, if you wanted a specific example. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I feel pretty confident that there's no 25-year-old AAAers out there that I'm absolutely dying to have, in any organization.

There is no player that you are dying to have. Your point here is to nay say. You’re an all star. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Sure, that was more based on 'sell all the good players for top 20 in the organization' comments from earlier. Though to be fair, I think it's a weird stretch with how covid delayed things. This might be outdated, but I count 9 prospects on the FG Top 100 list that have their ages listed as 25+. Wesneski being one of them, if you wanted a specific example. 

I also think we overvalue Wesneski, so I'm consistent on that one 

[Derwood]

Cubs have the following games leading up to the 8/1 trade deadline:

3 vs BOS

3 vs WAS

3 vs STL

3 @ CHW

3 @ STL

then the deadline falls during a series with the Reds

 

If Cubs win 2/3 of those games, they’re buyers, yeah?

Edited July 9, 2023 by Derwood

[Backtobanks]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Cubs have the following games leading up to the 8/1 trade deadline:

3 vs BOS

3 vs WAS

3 vs STL

3 @ CHW

3 @ STL

then the deadline falls during a series with the Reds

 

If Cubs win 2/3 of those games, they’re buyers, yeah?

Are you starting Steele and Stroman in 10 of those games?

[Derwood]

26 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Are you starting Steele and Stroman in 10 of those games?

No, but Washington, St Louis and the White Sox are all very bad teams. 

[gflore34]

24 minutes ago, Derwood said:

No, but Washington, St Louis and the White Sox are all very bad teams. 

Plus maybe, just maybe, Taillon is beginning a regression to the mean so, this in hand, along with Stroman and Steele, gives the Cubs the upper hand on the mound, in what, nine of those fifteen games?  Perhaps, Hendricks or Smyly might throw in a good start or two and it's conceivable the Cubs could win 10 or 11 out of 15.

Edited July 10, 2023 by gflore34

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Cubs have the following games leading up to the 8/1 trade deadline:

3 vs BOS

3 vs WAS

3 vs STL

3 @ CHW

3 @ STL

then the deadline falls during a series with the Reds

 

If Cubs win 2/3 of those games, they’re buyers, yeah?

That would put them at .500.  I think it depends on how teams like Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Philadephia, San Francisco and San Diego play.  All ahead of the Cubs for playoff spots and all except San Diego are at least 6 games ahead of the Cubs.  If you get that number down to 3, maybe you do at least a light buy, maybe a reliever and a power bat that can play 3B but not necessarily an everyday guy.  If its still at around 6, you do nothing or a light sell of 1-2 pen arms.

 

Edit: I wrote that confusingly.  Currently only San Francisco and Cincinnati are in playoff spots, but all the teams I listed except San Diego are at least 6 games ahead of the Cubs in the standings.

Edited July 10, 2023 by UMFan83

[CubUgly]

12 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Are you starting Steele and Stroman in 10 of those games?

Stroman's last 3 starts.......granted it that ump gives him the strike out he should have last start it might be 2 of 3 shaky starts.

Most worried about Smyly's regression.