So... what now?

[Brock Beauchamp]

A couple of really bad losses in a row. If it were up to me, David Ross would be looking at the door.

But some looming questions must be answered in the next 30-ish days that have more immediate significance. What do you do with Marcus Stroman? Cody Bellinger?

And if you sell, how deep do you purge the 40-man?

[Outshined_One]

Firing Ross doesn't fix the underlying issues with this roster. Yes, there have been some questionable decisions made, and the Cubs should consider an upgrade in the offseason, but this is still a sub-.500 team even with a good manager.

My vote is they poke around for 1B replacements and bullpen arms, but hold steady with Stroman and Bellinger, and try extending both. I think there's enough here to make a run and sneak into the playoffs, but I also want to see where things go with guys like Mervis, Amaya, and Morel and some of the up and coming arms this season.

[Derwood]

Burn it to the ground

[Tryptamine]

They're sellers, I don't care that the division sucks. This is a terrible team that actively finds ways to lose.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In an effort to avoid a 3000 word screed ramble post, here's some questions and my assumed answer that I think clarifies what the approach will be and what decisions are the tipping points.  I also think it's instructive to again ask what it means to 'sell'.

 

1. Does Jed have enough job security to trade from the multi-year core he has created(Swanson, Hoerner, Seiya, Happ, "Taillon") and make 2024 worse than 2023 and increase their timeline to a playoff berth?  I'd say no.

2. Since even the most optimistic of us did not think a playoff berth was probable, it's most useful to think in terms of 2024 expectations.  How has the outlook for 2024 changed compared to the start of the season?  I'd say it's muddled, there have been clear improvements vs. middle of the road expectations(Steele, Swanson, Morel, Alzolay), clear disappointments(Taillon, Seiya, Mancini, Mervis, Stroman shooting the moon and guaranteeing opt-out), and some shades of gray(Amaya, Madrigal, Wesneski).  I would summarize this that if they thought the current roster could continue progressing to be a clear playoff team in 2024 that is still on the table, but not as clear cut as it could have been.

3. What players have trade value and can't reasonably expect to contribute to a 2024 contender?  Fulmer, maybe Hendricks?  Mayyyyybe Mancini if he picks up the pace for a few weeks?

4. What players are borderline to contribute to a 2024 contender that have trade value and might be traded?  Stroman is the headliner, and by extension Bellinger would too even if I don't think he's going anywhere.  Smyly and Madrigal make sense depending on other roster decisions and what they could bring in return. Hendricks could also fit here too(I think by production it's possible he's on a 2024 contender but roster considerations make it very unlikely)

[Sosa21MVP]

I'd like to keep Stroman and Bellinger at a minimum. 

[CubinNY]

Trade 

Hendricks for lottery tickets (high upside young)

Bellinger for org top 20

Stroman for org top 20

Smyly for org top 30

Madrigal for whatever you can get

Fullmer for whatever you can get

Suzuki for org top 20 (warning track power isn’t going to cut it)

Bring up PCA, Mervis, Valezquez, maybe Cassisie, bunch of pitchers and go at it.  

They cannot have another year like this one. They need to stop spending big money of good, not great free agents

[jersey cubs fan]

Just now, CubinNY said:

 

They cannot have another year like this one. They need to stop spending big money of good, not great free agents

What? No. That is not the problem. 
 

they cut costs and intentionally got worse it’s hard to get better after intentionally taking a step back. They need to constantly acquire and pay for assets. Their financial advantage is the only thing going for them since they cannot scout or develop. 

[CubinNY]

22 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

What? No. That is not the problem. 
 

they cut costs and intentionally got worse it’s hard to get better after intentionally taking a step back. They need to constantly acquire and pay for assets. Their financial advantage is the only thing going for them since they cannot scout or develop. 

That’s a good point, but they don’t appear to do that very well either 

[Tryptamine]

If they lose today, they're 8.5 games out of the division and 8 out of the wildcard ,  doing anything but selling should be a fireable offense. 

[champaignchris]

Looking to next year, three of five starting pitching slots are up for grabs, with Taillon holding down one of the two. 
 

They have maybe half a bullpen. 
 

They have major questions at 1B, DH and CF, and definite concerns at 3B and RF. 
 

Payroll looks to be about $180 million before even signing a free agent. 
 

That’s really freaking grim. 

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, champaignchris said:

Looking to next year, three of five starting pitching slots are up for grabs, with Taillon holding down one of the two. 
 

They have maybe half a bullpen. 
 

They have major questions at 1B, DH and CF, and definite concerns at 3B and RF. 
 

Payroll looks to be about $180 million before even signing a free agent. 
 

That’s really freaking grim. 

Unfortunately true. Jed has done about as terrible a job as possible spending and I see no reason he should be part of the organization next year

[Transmogrified Tiger]

27 minutes ago, champaignchris said:

Looking to next year, three of five starting pitching slots are up for grabs, with Taillon holding down one of the two. 
 

They have maybe half a bullpen. 
 

They have major questions at 1B, DH and CF, and definite concerns at 3B and RF. 
 

Payroll looks to be about $180 million before even signing a free agent. 
 

That’s really freaking grim. 

That 180 is probably including Stroman, using some back of the envelope arb estimates I have them around 160 without him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

That 180 is probably including Stroman, using some back of the envelope arb estimates I have them around 160 without him.

Also Hendricks and he's a free agent after the season, correct? SporTrac has a $16m option on him in 2024 and I don't think that's accurate, though I could be wrong.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Also Hendricks and he's a free agent after the season, correct? SporTrac has a $16m option on him in 2024 and I don't think that's accurate, though I could be wrong.

That doesn't include Hendricks, who does have that option.  If you ask me it's basically the same thing since there's next to no chance the option is picked up, but either way Hendricks isn't part of the 2024 payroll calcs.

[Tim]

The picture going into next year really isn't that bad. We have a solid core in place. We just need to keep adding a few more pieces.

If the Cubs do decide to trade off at this deadline, I wonder how anxious Tampa is with the pitcher injuries they've been having. Probably no chance to pry Caminero away from them with Stroman, but I'd love to see us try. If they want to throw in Manzardo after a down year, that would be very nice of them.

[CubUgly]

On 7/3/2023 at 7:36 PM, Outshined_One said:

Firing Ross doesn't fix the underlying issues with this roster. Yes, there have been some questionable decisions made, and the Cubs should consider an upgrade in the offseason, but this is still a sub-.500 team even with a good manager.

My vote is they poke around for 1B replacements and bullpen arms, but hold steady with Stroman and Bellinger, and try extending both. I think there's enough here to make a run and sneak into the playoffs, but I also want to see where things go with guys like Mervis, Amaya, and Morel and some of the up and coming arms this season.

Not sure I agree that this is not a .500 team even with a good manager.  Now would we be able to compete for a WS....no but that's a whole other conversation and then you can dig into Jed's territory and roster construction, development etc.  But this team could definitely be competing for the Central Division this year as is and poor and mind boggling managing decisions have played as big a role as anything else in why we are not in my opinion. 

[jersey cubs fan]

9 hours ago, Tim said:

The picture going into next year really isn't that bad. We have a solid core in place. We just need to keep adding a few more pieces.

I really disagree. The problem is the “core”. They’re all secondary type guys. What they need is impact, high end players. Sure, if your entire team was Happ and Hoerner you’d be alright. But when those are two of your three biggest pieces…, you’re in trouble. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

38 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I really disagree. The problem is the “core”. They’re all secondary type guys. What they need is impact, high end players. Sure, if your entire team was Happ and Hoerner you’d be alright. But when those are two of your three biggest pieces…, you’re in trouble. 

More high end quality is always preferred, but by fWAR the Cubs have the 15th, 39th, and 68th best position players, as well as the 7th, 10th, and 45th SP.  If they have a problem with the core it's that there is too much overlap in how those players(plus Bellinger) derive their value, combined with complete zeroes at 1B/DH.  If they had Josh Naylor and Marcell Ozuna at 1B/DH those two would be bang average from a value standpoint but the whole position player group would be very good because they'd provide an offensive floor to balance the defense-heavy value from the middle infielders.  Instead the 1B & DH positions have combined to be less productive offensively than Madrigal, and Seiya has had a disappointing season to boot.

[mul21]

Agree with TT, this roster construct is fine if you're getting production from the entire lineup, but when you have essentially black holes at 2/3 spots in 1B, 3B and DH most days, you're just screwed from the outset. 

I 100% agree with the blame being placed on Ross because he's slow to react to what players' performance are telling him, good or bad.  That and the bullpen usage is just infuriating.  Even yesterday in a win, running Leiter and Alzolay back out the way he did after getting knocked around the day before didn't make a lot of sense to me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Not sure I agree that this is not a .500 team even with a good manager.  Now would we be able to compete for a WS....no but that's a whole other conversation and then you can dig into Jed's territory and roster construction, development etc.  But this team could definitely be competing for the Central Division this year as is and poor and mind boggling managing decisions have played as big a role as anything else in why we are not in my opinion. 

I don't know if they're a .500 team without Ross but I think they're at least closer to .500, which is something. Ross seems to make a bunch of unforced errors. He's not doing the team any favors.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll reiterate my take from a few weeks back that Actually David Ross is Good, and that most of the things people get upset at him for are either incorrect, ignoring one of a few factors that come with managing a team over 162 games, or looking for an outlet when a player simply doesn't succeed.

[jersey cubs fan]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Agree with TT, this roster construct is fine if you're getting production from the entire lineup, but when you have essentially black holes at 2/3 spots in 1B, 3B and DH most days, you're just screwed from the outset. 

I 100% agree with the blame being placed on Ross because he's slow to react to what players' performance are telling him, good or bad.  That and the bullpen usage is just infuriating.  Even yesterday in a win, running Leiter and Alzolay back out the way he did after getting knocked around the day before didn't make a lot of sense to me.

I don’t quite get the idea of noting there are multiple black holes in the lineup and then blaming Ross. It’s not a good roster. The good guys aren’t great and the bad players are terrible. That’s on the GM. 
 

Ross probably doesn’t matter. It’s the roster. 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

Not sure I agree that this is not a .500 team even with a good manager.  Now would we be able to compete for a WS....no but that's a whole other conversation and then you can dig into Jed's territory and roster construction, development etc.  But this team could definitely be competing for the Central Division this year as is and poor and mind boggling managing decisions have played as big a role as anything else in why we are not in my opinion. 

This is a team that's currently 6 games under .500 after 84 games, with the Reds sitting at 47-39 in first place.  I don't believe a better manager/coaching staff would have gotten much more out of schmucks like Hosmer, Mancini, or Mastrobuoni.  I think the best we would have gotten out of a better manager/coaching staff would have been better allocations of playing time for younger players and maybe a better-structured bullpen, but you wouldn't have seen Suzuki be a 20 HR threat or Madrigal with a .375 OBP.  A better manager/coaching staff would not have given this team 10-12 additional wins to this point in the season.

This all comes down to roster construction.  Since the 2021 selloff, most of the problem comes from a lack of spending, but blame can also be assigned to lackluster production and injuries to promising position players in the farm system and also to certain free agency signings not panning out.

I'm also not willing to go all-in on the position talent in the high levels of the farm system at this point.  I think PCA is the only untouchable hitter, and I want Mervis to get a meaningful opportunity to play 1B every day once he works things out in AAA, but everyone else seems like they're at least 1-2 years away from even being called up.

Frankly, if they want to go fishing for a quality hitter with 2-3 years of team control (if one actually exists in this market), I'm in favor of it.

[squally1313]

I mean, Swanson is 6th in offensive fWAR since the beginning of last year. You can make the argument that a guy putting up a .771 OPS is not a great player, but that's more a statistics/advanced metrics argument. If we're going off WAR, he's a star. You've got Hoerner at 37th, Happ at 51st, Bellinger at 82nd. Having four dudes in the top 90 in a thirty team league is good. 

On the pitching side, Steele is 25th since last year, Stroman is 38th, but obviously both are performing much better this year (7th and 10th).

I think this is an above average team that isn't far off from being a Good team, and seems like most people want to blow it up because they don't see a path to being a Great team. Which, maybe? But starting over I think just puts us back in this same spot in like 2 years.