The Cubs and .500

[Jason Ross]

On the Matt Mervis topic; the Cubs should be calling up Matt Mervis, and they're doing themselves a disservice by not, long term for sure, and possibly in the short.  We all want to win games; but is Trey Mancini helping the Cubs win games?  He's got a >80wRC+ on the season and his baseball savant page is icy blue across the board; few MLB players have worse batted ball data than Mancini.  There doesn't seem to be any reason to suggest a turn around is coming, and he's been worth -.7 fWAR this year.  Only 4 qualified players have been worth less than Mancini this season.  That's...less than optimal.  

Yes, Mervis was not worth much in his 99 PA run.  But 99 PA's is just a very small sample size; barely enough for most statistics to even stabilize let alone to be worthwhile to determine his long term future.  There were many negatives; he really struggled (especially initially) with swing decisions and the LA was real bad.  But the exit velocity data was good, and I think there was some bad luck, especially at the end, working against him.  This is a player clearly too good for AAA; he's got a 153 wRC+ since returning and just crushing the league.  Mervis really needs to learn swing decisions at the MLB level, and if he needs to make some "very small" mechanical changes, that feels very doable at the MLB level as well; it's not like we're talking a swing rebuild.  

So is Mervis any worse than Mancini?  Maybe marginally, but his last 74 PA's have been 57wRC+ bad.  That's so bad that it's virtually the same amount of bad Mervis was in 99 PA's (46 wRC+).  But Mervis has upside, and I don't think Mancini does.  So short term, you're probably better off gambling that Mervis has figured something out and will hit.  Long term, you need to give him as many PA's between today and the end of the year so you don't go into 2024 with more Matt Mervis questions.  Worst case?  He bombs, but then you know.  Not knowing would be the worst case scenario.

It's two weeks, but the Cubs should make the change.  It's better long term, it's arguably better short term.  Just do it.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

- Failure is underrated and doesn't have to be a forever thing

- Another chance is inevitable

- A 25 YO rookie 1B who isn't hitting while running a 47% GB rate in 2023 MLB? Sending him down was more than fine

Why? What else is there for him to learn in AAA? He dominated it in 2022, he's dominating it again in 2023. It's time for him to sink or swim so they know if he's going to be a guy going forward.

[Irrelevant Dude]

40 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Sending down one of the folks above is necessary to get Mervis on a roster when Swanson/Madrigal are healthy

This isn't happening anytime soon.

[Tryptamine]

16 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Probably the flyball thing I've been mentioning the whole time seeing as he's lopped off ~10+% from 2022 to 2023. We can call the AAA performance (at 24 and 25 as a 1B/DH) anything we want, I go with more fine than dominant, but Hoyer was very specific about the skills he wants to open last offseason (more flyballs from hitters) the Cubs to be better at and a 25 YO rookie 1B/DH with 99 (mediocre at best) MLB PAs has both very high offensive standards to meet and a short leash

a 145 wRC+ isn't dominant? Does he need to go all 2019 Ty France putting up a historic season with a 197 wRC+ before it's considered dominating?  In AAA in 2022 his GB% was 38.7, in 2023 it's 38.2. In MLB terms, 38.2 GB% would put him 48th in baseball ahead or tied with Luis Roberts, Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Paul Goldschmidt, Rafael Devers, etc. 

[jersey cubs fan]

Please get all this Mervis talk out of my .500 thread 

[SOFNR]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

On the Matt Mervis topic; the Cubs should be calling up Matt Mervis, and they're doing themselves a disservice by not, long term for sure, and possibly in the short.  We all want to win games; but is Trey Mancini helping the Cubs win games?  He's got a >80wRC+ on the season and his baseball savant page is icy blue across the board; few MLB players have worse batted ball data than Mancini.  There doesn't seem to be any reason to suggest a turn around is coming, and he's been worth -.7 fWAR this year.  Only 4 qualified players have been worth less than Mancini this season.  That's...less than optimal.  

Yes, Mervis was not worth much in his 99 PA run.  But 99 PA's is just a very small sample size; barely enough for most statistics to even stabilize let alone to be worthwhile to determine his long term future.  There were many negatives; he really struggled (especially initially) with swing decisions and the LA was real bad.  But the exit velocity data was good, and I think there was some bad luck, especially at the end, working against him.  This is a player clearly too good for AAA; he's got a 153 wRC+ since returning and just crushing the league.  Mervis really needs to learn swing decisions at the MLB level, and if he needs to make some "very small" mechanical changes, that feels very doable at the MLB level as well; it's not like we're talking a swing rebuild.  

So is Mervis any worse than Mancini?  Maybe marginally, but his last 74 PA's have been 57wRC+ bad.  That's so bad that it's virtually the same amount of bad Mervis was in 99 PA's (46 wRC+).  But Mervis has upside, and I don't think Mancini does.  So short term, you're probably better off gambling that Mervis has figured something out and will hit.  Long term, you need to give him as many PA's between today and the end of the year so you don't go into 2024 with more Matt Mervis questions.  Worst case?  He bombs, but then you know.  Not knowing would be the worst case scenario.

It's two weeks, but the Cubs should make the change.  It's better long term, it's arguably better short term.  Just do it.

All of this. I hated the Mancini signing when it happened and it's been rough watching him flounder all year. There is just nothing to gain by continuing to throw him out there. Get Mervis up after the break and give him the rest of the year. Mervis is the only interesting 1B in the system right now and it's such a big waste of time, not to mention his development, if you can't even get a measure of him in a tank year.

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Please get all this Mervis talk out of my .500 thread 

We're giving it life, since it could have ended with the first post just saying "Never"

[Brock Beauchamp]

26 minutes ago, SOFNR said:

All of this. I hated the Mancini signing when it happened and it's been rough watching him flounder all year. There is just nothing to gain by continuing to throw him out there. Get Mervis up after the break and give him the rest of the year. Mervis is the only interesting 1B in the system right now and it's such a big waste of time, not to mention his development, if you can't even get a measure of him in a tank year.

Welcome to North Side Baseball!

[Brock Beauchamp]

32 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Please get all this Mervis talk out of my .500 thread 

What's closer to .500 at season's end, the Cubs' winning percentage or Mervis's slugging percentage?

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s not 2022 anymore and, whatever you want to call the AAA line, he went from 40+% flyballs in 2022 throughout the minors to 36% this year (34% MLB). Both rates are soldily below the ML average and we’re talking about a prospective 25 YO 1B 

By his age most, if not all, in that group were established MLers 

why are you fixated on his age? 

[jersey cubs fan]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don't get this one. This guy's like an hour younger than this Mastro guy everyone hates and hit .167/.242/.289 over the 99 PAs. The guy everyone hates and is maybe 30 minutes older is hitting .184/.287/.224 through 89 PAs. Why is one the most garbage piece of garbage in the history of garbage but the other MUST be summoned for more opportunity?

The second part is just a random claim with no basis other than it fits what's popular to think and say right now. Why would they just make adjustments to hit fewer flyballs? Why wasn't he hitting flyballs earlier or in the MLs if it's the most current adjustments tanking him?

I agree he did show some ability to play defense there and hit the ball hard, but he also did that while hitting .167/.242/.289 at 1B as a 25 YO rookie. What about that says that he is "clearly" better than Mancini and has "real upside?" The stupid stuff about this situation is how married we are to every prospect that smiles in our direction, the arbitrary calls on who gets to struggle and who doesn't, probably other stuff

 

Has anybody responded to this “hour younger than Mastro” comment?

October 31, 1995

April 16, 1998

 

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

What's closer to .500 at season's end, the Cubs' winning percentage or Mervis's slugging percentage?

W %
he’s at .289 with 99 PA past the halfway point. I assume he’ll struggle to get another 100 PA this season to add .200 points to that SLG. 
Also assume cubs play .500 rest of way to keep it in upper 490+ range. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

why are you fixated on his age? 

To add to it, I think with Mervis we should understand why he's coming around a little older than others; this isn't a prospect who necessarily spent years struggling in the MiLB only to pop, but due to baseball circumstances (not just a regular position switch but from pitcher to position player) and worldly circumstances (did not have a 2020 season due to the pandemic), Mervis' age of 25 is a bit different than other 25 year old prospects.  

 

I'm more forgiving in these situations.  He's 25, but has had a very odd route to the MLB.  He's simultaneously a bit old...while also speed running the MiLB in many ways.

Edited July 19, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Derwood]

28 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Has anybody responded to this “hour younger than Mastro” comment?

October 31, 1995

April 16, 1998

 

 

 

 

It's not worth it.

 

BTW, I'm not entirely convinced that Tom and Kyle aren't the same person

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Derwood said:

 

It's not worth it.

 

BTW, I'm not entirely convinced that Tom and Kyle aren't the same person

 All the people coming over from PSD are going to have a fun time learning that lesson when dealing with the king of the hot takes. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Tryptamine

[Outshined_One]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

 All the people coming over from PSD are going to have a fun time learning that lesson when dealing with the king of the hot takes. 

Just wait until they discover the magic of clicking on a three page Minor League Box Score thread, only to find 2.5 pages of it dedicated to arguing about Ethan Hearn and Derniche Valdez.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Just wait until they discover the magic of clicking on a three page Minor League Box Score thread, only to find 2.5 pages of it dedicated to arguing about Ethan Hearn and Derniche Valdez.

Now you're speaking my language.  

[ILMindState]

33 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

 All the people coming over from PSD are going to have a fun time learning that lesson when dealing with the king of the hot takes. 

Me trying to act like I've been here the whole time and not from PSD

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Me trying to act like I've been here the whole time and not from PSD

Welcome!

[chibears55]

Off Topic, how or can I change my name on here ? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, cubsandbears said:

Off Topic, how or can I change my name on here ? 

Try the Display Name setting here: https://northsidebaseball.com/settings/

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Did PSD die? Cool to see a bunch of new posters around here!

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Try the Display Name setting here: https://northsidebaseball.com/settings/

Thanks, but it only let you change email and password,  not display name.

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Did PSD die? Cool to see a bunch of new posters around here!

Yep, theyre shutting down on the 24th..  

This will be a version of WCW coming over to WWE after they folded 😅😅

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, cubsandbears said:

Thanks, but it only let you change email and password,  not display name.

Ah, Brock may know best then, not sure where settings that are unique to mods begin and end on this platform yet.