2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Gilby]

Maybe I'm way off but I kinda think Correa's total will be in the general vicinity of Turner and Bogaerts (granted I'm shocked those two ended up being that close to each other). To me, it feels like while a lot of fans/pundits had Correa as either the top overall FA or at least top SS the past two off-seasons, teams don't necessarily share that same opinion

 

Plus Jed and Zaidi seem to be cut from a similar "Intelligent spending" cloth

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Making contract guesses in this market is a good way to look foolish, but I would say that you're probably starting around 12/360 for Correa, then if the years start coming down the AAV comes up so the guarantee will drop slower(e.g. 10/330, 8/290). Gilby's point about Zaidi and Jed being similar is a fair one and it wouldn't be surprising if that off the wall Yankee reporting was trying to drive offers up.

 

The whole Correa market is at least a little weird right now. You have the Giants interested but multiple reports of them barely discussing money, maybe that changes with more distance from their Judge pursuit but still either early or lukewarm. The Cubs are repeatedly interested and there was the somewhat out of character insistence from Wittenmyer they were in hard on him, but it seems like for now they're more likely to have already signed Swanson a week ago. The Twins are very interested but ultimately they're the Twins and probably need to wait for the contract ask to come down or get reach a point where creativity can win like last year. Rosenthal says the Dodgers are out, Mozeliak hasn't seem interested in getting involved, maybe the Yankees go nuts but everyone in that city hates him, and the Padres are no longer a wild card candidate. After last year it seems like he's not interested in playing the opt out game(at least as a primary means of maximizing $), so where is that deal going to come from?

[imb]

This is the dumbest horsefeathering thing I’ve seen in awhile

 

Sounds extraordinarily lucky, send me whatever you’re using

 

hopefully it's thorazine

[CubinNY]

This years Carlos Correa chase is similar to the Carlos Beltran chase in 2005. Only then the Cubs weren’t willing to go 7 years.

[Sammy Sofa]

[SouthSideRyan]

Carlos Correa - talking out the covid year, he’s averaging 118 games/year. It’s a lot of years and $ for a guy who can’t stay healthy and who is only gonna age.

 

We should get one of those guys who don’t age

[17 Seconds]

[UMFan83]

This fanbase is going to implode if they don’t get any of the 4 SS. The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

[Derwood]

The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This fanbase is going to implode if they don’t get any of the 4 SS. The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

 

It's weird to me that there's still a passionate fanbase about this stuff. It's like people who are still really invested in marvel movies after Endgame.

[SouthSideRyan]

This fanbase is going to implode if they don’t get any of the 4 SS. The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

 

What percent would you say is in favor of the Cubs not signing these “dumb contracts?”

[Cubswin11]

This fanbase is going to implode if they don’t get any of the 4 SS. The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

I’ll be mad if they miss out on Correa, don’t care the price or years. Swanson is a tbd for me depending on terms, he isn’t a guy we have to have at any price if we don’t get Correa.

[mias_tisg]

If they don't get Correa, just don't bother

[UMFan83]

This fanbase is going to implode if they don’t get any of the 4 SS. The mood on Cubs Twitter is nuts right now.

 

What percent would you say is in favor of the Cubs not signing these “dumb contracts?”

 

Less than 1%. Even people who were saying that 2 weeks ago are now on “do whatever it takes” mode. White Sox fans are even worse right now lol. Chicago is very angsty right now about all of their sports teams.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

+7 by Def seems generous/optimistic. He’s been that or better 3 times (2021, 2019, 2018)…Missed time in both 2018 and 2019 to the same back issue

 

Considering he was well above that pace in 2020, that means his per 150 pace the last 5 years is 25.6, 19.4, 14.5, 15.1, and 2.2 last year. Seems like it's pretty fairly regressing last year for someone playing the upcoming season at 28.

[Cubswin11]

+7 by Def seems generous/optimistic. He’s been that or better 3 times (2021, 2019, 2018)…Missed time in both 2018 and 2019 to the same back issue

 

Considering he was well above that pace in 2020, that means his per 150 pace the last 5 years is 25.6, 19.4, 14.5, 15.1, and 2.2 last year. Seems like it's pretty fairly regressing last year for someone playing the upcoming season at 28.

Also we know if he signs he’s not staying at SS over the life of his contract, he’ll shift to 3B at some point (and probably be + there). And we already have Nico to shift to SS if he’s bad sooner than later or otherwise the prospects coming up and/or other acquisitions. I feel confident Correa will be a plus defensive SS for a few years yet but if he’s not we have options to upgrade the defense.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

As much as I’m trying to get psyched up about a possible Swanson signing, I just…can’t.

[champaignchris]

As much as I’m trying to get psyched up about a possible Swanson signing, I just…can’t.

 

Over the contract, he’ll likely consistently hit around .260/.325/.450, 20 HRs, while playing a good to great shortstop.

 

A nice player. Just not a very sexy one. He’d clearly make the team better, but as a capstone to a “big” offseason, it’s just not very exciting.

[UMFan83]

[UMFan83]

No idea how substantiated this is but

 

[Bertz]

So based on the names we keep hearing, seems like most likely offseason on the position player side is Swanson, Vazquez, and Mancini. I'd guess the lineup would look something like this:

 

2B - Hoerner (110 projected wRC+)

LF - Happ (114)

SS - Swanson (104)

RF - Suzuki (128)

CF - Bellinger (97)

1B - Mancini (107)

DH - Mervis (122)

3B - Morel (105)

C - Vazquez (93)

 

BN - Gomes (92), Madrigal (100), Wisdom (97), Mastrobuoni (103)

 

Pros:

- Very strong defensively, and that's backed by athleticism so you don't worry about the new shift rules

- It's really deep. Between the bench, Iowa, and the positional versatility of Morel/Hoerner/Bellinger, the team can absorb an injuries or guys sucking. And even a couple injuries deep that should stay a fairly productive bottom of the order

 

Cons:

- The flipside to that depth is a lack of standouts on the offensive side. You probably need Bellinger, Seiya, or some of the youths could end up providing impact offense, but no one you can count on anchoring the lineup from day 1

- There’s no reliable source of LHH power. Despite the great season Happ had a power outage last year, we all know Bellinger's issues, and Mervis is a rookie. And none of the potential impact guys at Iowa are LHH either.

 

That last point to me is why the Mancini interest is really lame. With Wisdom already around as a RHH corner guy I feel like offensive fit should be prioritized over defensive fit.

 

As others have said, it's not the sexiest lineup but I do think it wins a lot of games, especially if the tradeoff for going Swanson instead of Correa and Mancini instead of Bell/Abreu is a more legit other SP. Someone like Bassitt or Eovaldi or Lopez.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That last point to me is why the Mancini interest is really lame. With Wisdom already around as a RHH corner guy I feel like offensive fit should be prioritized over defensive fit.

 

I think this is one of the consequences of banking Bellinger, is that guys looking for short term deals that are Mancini+ in caliber are only going to be okay with primary 1B/DH playing time if that's their only option. So that should conceivably keep Brantley as a LHH possibility, but probably eliminates names like Conforto and Gallo.

 

I do generally agree though, which is why I'd like it if I saw names like Narvaez(instead of Vazquez) and/or Belt listed more prominently.

[Bertz]

That last point to me is why the Mancini interest is really lame. With Wisdom already around as a RHH corner guy I feel like offensive fit should be prioritized over defensive fit.

 

I think this is one of the consequences of banking Bellinger, is that guys looking for short term deals that are Mancini+ in caliber are only going to be okay with primary 1B/DH playing time if that's their only option. So that should conceivably keep Brantley as a LHH possibility, but probably eliminates names like Conforto and Gallo.

 

I do generally agree though, which is why I'd like it if I saw names like Narvaez(instead of Vazquez) and/or Belt listed more prominently.

 

I completely forgot Brandon Belt existed, he'd be kind of perfect. I know he had a pretty major injury, so maybe the quiet is a sign that he's not physically in a good place, but broadly even assuming some extra risk I think I like him more than anyone we've talked about except Brantley.

[mias_tisg]

Cubs are gonna sign Dansby Swanson to a stupid contract and a few other scraps and call it an offseason. The owners will be used as scapegoats but even if the owners are cheap, Jed Hoyer needs to be more creative and he's not.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the Braves are getting Adames like this 3-team trade seems like it's setting up to do, then I'll be at least a little surprised if Swanson to the Cubs isn't broken in the next 24 hours.