2022 Trade Deadline

[chopsx9]

I took a look to see if there's any potential Madrigals out there this year, not tiny second basemen but injured MLBers on contenders who might part with them as part of a deadline deal.

 

Shane Baz - This would be a pretty big decision given Baz's pedigree and actual results, but he's thrown 40 IP this year in between elbow injuries and has never reached 90 IP in a season, so the argument exists for them to sell high. Whether they would sell high on a player the Cubs are trading at the deadline is an additional question.

 

Chris Paddack - The Twins probably aren't in a hurry to give up Paddack given his strong start, and the Cubs would get at most 1.5 full strength years out of him before FA. But he would hit FA young so if the value is right and they believe in their conviction to extend him or get extreme value out of his 2025 season, maybe.

 

Royce Lewis - Maybe more likely before he tore up AAA(and in 12 MLB games) before tearing a knee ligament, but if they don't see him as a long term SS(and this is his 2nd ACL tear) they do have a lot of bats for where he'd play instead. Given the limited MLB time he's probably more applicable to acquiring PCA than Madrigal.

 

Hyun Jin Ryu - This is less targeting Ryu, but maybe more that the Cubs wouldn't mind him being on the roster/payroll for 2023 and that could goose the return in a deadline deal. Ryu's on 20 million/year though so I'm not sure what would be worth that handicap.

 

Dustin May - Very unlikely, especially since he's almost back from his TJS now, but his K rates have never matched his stuff and his MLB performance to date has been more decent than portending future greatness. I would be shocked, but then again I was very surprised by Madrigal.

 

Evan White - White is more similar to Ryu in that he can't have much value in trade given his guaranteed money. He doesn't have any MLB track record, but he would make up for that in (relative) youth, prospect pedigree, and potential roster fit.

 

Joey Lucchesi - Lucchesi was a bang average starter in SD but had a peripheral strong start as a swingman in New York before TJS hit. The Mets need rotation options for next year worse than the Cubs, and he's a FA after 2024, but especially if the pitching infrastructure sees some un-mined potential he could be a secondary piece in a Happ or Contreras trade.

 

From the Blue Jays I'd be looking to get Yusei Kikuchi as a throw in - he's not injured but he's underperformed to the point of demotion but still throws 95 - maybe the Cubs can fix him - problem seems to be he just doesn't trust his FB.

[Bertz]

 

Both Mooney and the Padres' beat writer suggest the team's will hook up

 

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs will make a trade with the Padres, following a pattern that goes back several years. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, the former Padres general manager, kicked off this rebuild by trading Yu Darvish to San Diego after the Cubs won a division title in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. In smaller deals with the Padres, the Cubs have acquired pitchers such as Rowan Wick, Brad Wieck and Anderson Espinoza. Given A.J. Preller’s aggressive track record in San Diego, and the availability of All-Stars Willson Contreras and Ian Happ plus several experienced Cubs pitchers, it would be more surprising if both sides didn’t find another match by the Aug. 2 deadline.

 

San Diego Padres

The Padres acquire Willson Contreras. … Predicting what A.J. Preller will do is often a futile exercise. The Padres’ president of baseball operations routinely pursues every big name imaginable, even ones who might not appear available. That said, there don’t seem to be many game-changing position players on the market. At the grave risk of underestimating Preller, here’s guessing that the Padres fall just short of landing Juan Soto, who might not be moved by this deadline, anyway. And here’s guessing that they gladly settle for Contreras, who would represent a significant offensive upgrade at the catching position. The Padres and the Cubs have an extensive history as dance partners in trade discussions, and each side can provide what the other seeks.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Keep Contreras, Cubs!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Send Abrams, Padres!

 

I shook my head when I read this, but now that I look there could be a path. Abrams has been sub-replacement, is currently hurt(albeit a minor injury), Kim is outplaying him this year, and Tatis's return is getting close. If they're a little worried now that he's too swing happy and might be more of an average 2B than playable at SS, that could get you into 'Preller does Preller things' territory. Even moreso if we're talking about a combo deal for Contreras/Happ, Contreras/Robertson, etc.

[Tim]

Send Abrams, Padres!

 

I shook my head when I read this, but now that I look there could be a path. Abrams has been sub-replacement, is currently hurt(albeit a minor injury), Kim is outplaying him this year, and Tatis's return is getting close. If they're a little worried now that he's too swing happy and might be more of an average 2B than playable at SS, that could get you into 'Preller does Preller things' territory. Even moreso if we're talking about a combo deal for Contreras/Happ, Contreras/Robertson, etc.

But they have so many other players I'd prefer as a return. Abrams strikes me as just being "better Madrigal". While that's probably not a bad player, it isn't filling any real gaps on this team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Send Abrams, Padres!

 

I shook my head when I read this, but now that I look there could be a path. Abrams has been sub-replacement, is currently hurt(albeit a minor injury), Kim is outplaying him this year, and Tatis's return is getting close. If they're a little worried now that he's too swing happy and might be more of an average 2B than playable at SS, that could get you into 'Preller does Preller things' territory. Even moreso if we're talking about a combo deal for Contreras/Happ, Contreras/Robertson, etc.

But they have so many other players I'd prefer as a return. Abrams strikes me as just being "better Madrigal". While that's probably not a bad player, it isn't filling any real gaps on this team.

 

Abrams is about as old today as Madrigal was when he was drafted, and he has less than 650 PA as a professional(with 20% of those at the MLB level), so I think it's safe to say there's a fair amount of meat still left on the developmental bone. He's also a lot bigger framed(6 inches taller than Madrigal) so there's more room for physical development to play a part. But even if he doesn't, reports as of this spring say he hasn't lost his 80 speed as he's started to fill out, which is another big differentiator.

 

That said, it's not risk-free, that's why a Top 15 overall prospect might be available for a rental, and with the runaway success Hassell and Wood have had Preller might not be nearly as willing to part with them.

[Bertz]

Send Abrams, Padres!

 

I shook my head when I read this, but now that I look there could be a path. Abrams has been sub-replacement, is currently hurt(albeit a minor injury), Kim is outplaying him this year, and Tatis's return is getting close. If they're a little worried now that he's too swing happy and might be more of an average 2B than playable at SS, that could get you into 'Preller does Preller things' territory. Even moreso if we're talking about a combo deal for Contreras/Happ, Contreras/Robertson, etc.

But they have so many other players I'd prefer as a return. Abrams strikes me as just being "better Madrigal". While that's probably not a bad player, it isn't filling any real gaps on this team.

 

The only LH hitting infielder (aside from 1B) worth any sort of damn in the entire org is Reggie Preciado. I'm totally in agreement that I'd rather shoot our shot elsewhere with the Padres but Abrams would fill one of the org's most glaring holes IMO.

[Post Count Padder]

What are thoughts on Campusano? We lack top of the organization catching and they also have Nola and Alfaro. Part of me gets the feeling we're going to be underwhelmed at the time.

[Bertz]

What are thoughts on Campusano? We lack top of the organization catching and they also have Nola and Alfaro. Part of me gets the feeling we're going to be underwhelmed at the time.

 

I think he's likely to be the best combination of impactful and realistically available. Add in that he could step into the lineup tomorrow and he's the name I'm most attached to this deadline. Campusano and a quality SP at AAA would be an A+ deadline.

[Cubswin11]

My issue with Campusano, obviously SSS, but he’s a bat first catcher who hasn’t hit at all in his MLB time and he needs to hit to carry value by all accounts because his defense is not good. He’s hit everywhere so maybe it’s sample/luck/adjustment but that’s my worry. Would have to trust the scouts seeing him that he can overcome whatever is happening and be a productive MLB hitter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My issue with Campusano, obviously SSS, but he’s a bat first catcher who hasn’t hit at all in his MLB time and he needs to hit to carry value by all accounts because his defense is not good. He’s hit everywhere so maybe it’s sample/luck/adjustment but that’s my worry. Would have to trust the scouts seeing him that he can overcome whatever is happening and be a productive MLB hitter.

 

It's only 55 PA in MLB across 3 different seasons, so while it's objectively awful performance it's tough for me to read too much conclusively into it. Especially when it's not accompanied with extreme BB/K rates or some similar harbinger of doom.

[muntjack]

I like Campusano, but I wouldn't bet much on him putting up more career value than Amaya. They aren't that far apart offensively to offset the defense. Having them both wouldn't be the worst thing, but I'd prefer to focus on acquiring pitching.

[We Got The Whole 9]

This was brought up elsewhere but what about O'Hoppe?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This was brought up elsewhere but what about O'Hoppe?

 

O'Hoppe would be an appropriate target in a Happ trade, but probably a bridge too far for a reliever(or even something like Smyly + Robertson). So the question is what Philly's appetite is to make a big upgrade at LF. They're very much in the wild card race, but have no shot at the division, and if they add Happ they'll have paid a premium to either give themselves a OF/DH bottleneck(Harper/Schwarber/Happ/Castellanos for 3 spots) or conclusively decided they're gonna move on from one of those. Hard to see them having the motivation to make such a decisive trade. Seems like they might be more after an infielder, a la Merrifield.

[We Got The Whole 9]

 

O'Hoppe would be an appropriate target in a Happ trade, but probably a bridge too far for a reliever(or even something like Smyly + Robertson). So the question is what Philly's appetite is to make a big upgrade at LF. They're very much in the wild card race, but have no shot at the division, and if they add Happ they'll have paid a premium to either give themselves a OF/DH bottleneck(Harper/Schwarber/Happ/Castellanos for 3 spots) or conclusively decided they're gonna move on from one of those. Hard to see them having the motivation to make such a decisive trade. Seems like they might be more after an infielder, a la Merrifield.

 

Castellanos definitely sucks total ass this year and should be pulled off of the field forever if they're being honest. Happ would be a nice bump in defense. You're probably right but that would be a tire I would kick. Realmuto could make him available and he looks like a really good hitter and good defender.

[muntjack]

O'Hoppe would be great, but agree that there isn't really a fit unless we added one of our surplus OF prospects when dealing them a reliever.

[Clem Fandango]

Not that it makes much sense, but could the prospects brought back from a contreras trade be enough to supplement what the cubs already have to offer up for soto?

[Tryptamine]

Not that it makes much sense, but could the prospects brought back from a contreras trade be enough to supplement what the cubs already have to offer up for soto?

 

If not Soto then I'd love to bring back either of Skubal or Pablo Lopez.

 

Stroman/Hendricks/Thompson/Steele/(Skubal/lopez) would be a good 2-6. Grab Musgrove in FA and that's a solid staff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not that it makes much sense, but could the prospects brought back from a contreras trade be enough to supplement what the cubs already have to offer up for soto?

 

If not Soto then I'd love to bring back either of Skubal or Pablo Lopez.

 

Stroman/Hendricks/Thompson/Steele/(Skubal/lopez) would be a good 2-6. Grab Musgrove in FA and that's a solid staff.

 

I had thought of this in the context of Soto(which I have trouble seeing as a reasonable possibility), but for a different buy move it's an interesting idea, especially if the best prospect capital you can get is less immediately useful. Personally, I'd be very curious what the price is on Trevor Rogers, since it might be lower than Lopez even though Rogers has more team control, velocity, and demonstrated ceiling. Plus, Rogers is a command and plus changeup guy who maybe needs help developing a better slider, which is a glove-like fit with Cubs pitching dev.

[CubinNY]

If Happ’s market is hot I hope Jed holds out for a steal. He should at least bring back Javy’s return if not better.

[Bertz]

If Happ’s market is hot I hope Jed holds out for a steal. He should at least bring back Javy’s return if not better.

 

Speaking of Javy's return, something we should all keep in mind is how limited and potentially out of date the information we're working with is. Based on what we knew at the deadline last year the quality of the trade chips we got were roughly:

 

Madrigal

 

 

Alcantara

 

 

PCA

Canario

Vizcaino

Deichman

 

 

Kilian

Espinoza

 

 

Palencia

Horn

 

It only took a ~month to realize that Palencia and Kilian were the actual headliners of their respective deals, and once Madrigal and PCA finally got back on the field they very quickly changed our views on them. That's not to say assume everything is roses (both White Sox deals look quite bad!), but moreso that non-famous prospects don't generate a lot of in-season scouting report updates, so we should all allow for some wiggle room in our Tuesday afternoon opinions.

[chopsx9]

If Happ’s market is hot I hope Jed holds out for a steal. He should at least bring back Javy’s return if not better.

 

Hope your right but I'd take the under on this.

[Bertz]

 

It begins

[Jaxbro]

 

It begins

 

Is Joey Gallo one of the 3 minor leaguers heading to KC????

[Bertz]