So...Now What?

[The_Achiever]

Phil Rodgers is hilarious, no surprise he loves Nicky two strikes.

 

I’d like to see this guy stay on the field before committing anything. They’ve got him for 5 year already!

[CubinNY]

Phil Rodgers is hilarious, no surprise he loves Nicky two strikes.

 

I’d like to see this guy stay on the field before committing anything. They’ve got him for 5 year already!

He will hence forth be known as Nicky Two Strikes.

[Productive Outs]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

[minnesotacubsfan]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

As a 2016 Cubs fan? Yes

 

As a Cubs fan who wants win again? No

[d_money]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

The Cubs dodged a bullet with Rizzo and Baez turning down the extensions. Bryant’s gonna get a surprise with the low offers he’s gonna receive.

[stitchface]

So, what is the disappointment?

1. Players that won in 2016 regressing going forward.

2. Management not investing to win again in the window.

3. Lack of development in the farm system.

 

I don't see any rational reason to be upset they traded those three and re-signing any of them is likely a big mistake (though I do recall reading that speed skills like Javy has degrade slower than old man skill like Rizzo).

 

Honestly, it was the offense that let us down after 2016 wasn't it? What could management have added?

[UMFan83]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

 

I’ve said that for awhile about Javy. His best attributes are the things that will decline worst. Can you imagine Javy without elite bat speed? Or 1-2 steps slow on defense? Or quick reaction time?

 

I still want him though because he has so much swag I’m going through swag withdrawal right now.

[stitchface]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

 

I’ve said that for awhile about Javy. His best attributes are the things that will decline worst. Can you imagine Javy without elite bat speed? Or 1-2 steps slow on defense? Or quick reaction time?

 

I still want him though because he has so much swag I’m going through swag withdrawal right now.

 

as I said in the post above, I'm pretty sure these skills age better than old man skills, counter-intuitively.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That bit about the CBA in Jed’s interview is sobering. Hopefully the indiactors are clear enough that they can confidently make some moves of significance beforehand, because even if the entire market is essentially on hold until the CBA is settled, that’s a tough pill to swallow.

[UMFan83]

ZiPS 22-23 projections for Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo are not at all encouraging. Baez, as much as I love him, scares me the most. There is little to like in his batting profile, and I can't help but think his defense and base running will be the first things to go as he gets older.

 

Do I suck as a fan if I don't want any of them to be resigned this offseason?

 

I’ve said that for awhile about Javy. His best attributes are the things that will decline worst. Can you imagine Javy without elite bat speed? Or 1-2 steps slow on defense? Or quick reaction time?

 

I still want him though because he has so much swag I’m going through swag withdrawal right now.

 

as I said in the post above, I'm pretty sure these skills age better than old man skills, counter-intuitively.

 

You think bat speed ages slower than other things? I was always under believe that it was one of the first things to decline

[Thusly Boned]

So, what is the disappointment?

1. Players that won in 2016 regressing going forward.

2. Management not investing to win again in the window.

3. Lack of development in the farm system.

 

I don't see any rational reason to be upset they traded those three and re-signing any of them is likely a big mistake (though I do recall reading that speed skills like Javy has degrade slower than old man skill like Rizzo).

 

Honestly, it was the offense that let us down after 2016 wasn't it? What could management have added?

 

It was the offense for sure. So maddeningly inconsistent, and for years.

 

I think that inaction when it started to become clear the core wasn't becoming what we thought it would is the disappointment. I think by 2019 it had become apparent that the offensive core just wasn't going to get it done, due to regression and inconsistency, I think if we're being honest, we can say we saw that offensively things weren't going to go as we hoped. It was the latter part of 2018 in particular that made me seriously start questioning, at least quietly.

 

What could have been done? Deal one or two of them to mix it up a bit (and replenish the farm a bit after it had been depleted by trades). For example, I think dealing Schwarber and signing re-signing Castellanos after 2019 would have been a good move (though admittedly at the time I was still seduced a bit by Kyle's power potential).

 

I also think that 2018/19 was probably the point where you really want to choose the players you want to extend, and make a strong play.

[EricG]

is the DH coming to the NL next year?

 

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Thusly Boned]

is the DH coming to the NL next year?

 

 

I think the odds are very, very good. I imagine it'll be one of the concessions to the players in the CBA.

[Irrelevant Dude]

is the DH coming to the NL next year?

 

 

I think the odds are very, very good. I imagine it'll be one of the concessions to the players in the CBA.

I still prefer no DH, but I'm not going to die on that hill. It is a logical concession to the players and I can live with that, as long as the stupid extra innings rule and 7 inning doubleheaders aren't also offered up as concessions.

[TruffleShuffle]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

 

problem with hoerner is that he really hasn't done that much at the major league level. i think that tends to reduce a guy's trade value, kind of like how all the padres got for rizzo was andrew cashner because rizzo sucked ass in his first crack at the bigs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

 

problem with hoerner is that he really hasn't done that much at the major league level. i think that tends to reduce a guy's trade value, kind of like how all the padres got for rizzo was andrew cashner because rizzo sucked ass in his first crack at the bigs.

 

Hoerner hasn’t proven himself to be a star, but he has 1.5 fWAR in 360 MLB PAs and is having his best offensive season yet. Not much comparison to Rizzo, who had a .248 wOBA and negative WAR in his 150 PA as a Padre. Nico would have plenty of trade value if they went that route.

[jersey cubs fan]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

 

problem with hoerner is that he really hasn't done that much at the major league level. i think that tends to reduce a guy's trade value, kind of like how all the padres got for rizzo was andrew cashner because rizzo sucked ass in his first crack at the bigs.

 

Hoerner hasn’t proven himself to be a star, but he has 1.5 fWAR in 360 MLB PAs and is having his best offensive season yet. Not much comparison to Rizzo, who had a .248 wOBA and negative WAR in his 150 PA as a Padre. Nico would have plenty of trade value if they went that route.

 

Hoerner is 2 years older than Rizzo was when he was traded to the Cubs. He's not getting the Cubs anything in a trade with his resume to date.

[squally1313]

 

problem with hoerner is that he really hasn't done that much at the major league level. i think that tends to reduce a guy's trade value, kind of like how all the padres got for rizzo was andrew cashner because rizzo sucked ass in his first crack at the bigs.

 

Hoerner hasn’t proven himself to be a star, but he has 1.5 fWAR in 360 MLB PAs and is having his best offensive season yet. Not much comparison to Rizzo, who had a .248 wOBA and negative WAR in his 150 PA as a Padre. Nico would have plenty of trade value if they went that route.

 

Hoerner is 2 years older than Rizzo was when he was traded to the Cubs. He's not getting the Cubs anything in a trade with his resume to date.

 

Yeah but he has also shown elite defense at second, teams know he can play short, and also looks capable of playing center or the corner spots in a pinch. That and the team control plus the aforementioned offense shown so far is plenty valuable.

[muntjack]

What? He's a pedigreed, 24-year-old middle infielder with excellent defense and a .388 OBP this year. That is most definitely worth something

[Derwood]

I’m just amused that spring training was all abuzz at how jacked Hoerner got over the winter and the dude still can’t hit the ball more than 330 feet

[squally1313]

Theo is using the Cubs to run all his experiments on being anti-three true outcomes. Pick up Astudillo and a couple more Alec Mills and see what happens.

[Bertz]

Yeah, Hoerner's obviously valuable. I mean the genesis of this convo is how similar he and Madrigal are, literally four days ago Nick brought back a Hall of Fame closer in the midst of maybe his best season.

 

I don't like the idea of trading Hoerner though. I'm among the most optimistic about next season, but even I think next year's team is probably going to be light on starpower. I think we need to get back to the days of having 11 guys fighting for 9 spots. Let Hoerner backup 2B, SS, and CF, kinda like Javy circa 2015 (I know Javy barely touched CF).

[UMFan83]

So, what is the disappointment?

1. Players that won in 2016 regressing going forward.

2. Management not investing to win again in the window.

3. Lack of development in the farm system.

 

I don't see any rational reason to be upset they traded those three and re-signing any of them is likely a big mistake (though I do recall reading that speed skills like Javy has degrade slower than old man skill like Rizzo).

 

Honestly, it was the offense that let us down after 2016 wasn't it? What could management have added?

 

It was the offense for sure. So maddeningly inconsistent, and for years.

 

I think that inaction when it started to become clear the core wasn't becoming what we thought it would is the disappointment. I think by 2019 it had become apparent that the offensive core just wasn't going to get it done, due to regression and inconsistency, I think if we're being honest, we can say we saw that offensively things weren't going to go as we hoped. It was the latter part of 2018 in particular that made me seriously start questioning, at least quietly.

 

What could have been done? Deal one or two of them to mix it up a bit (and replenish the farm a bit after it had been depleted by trades). For example, I think dealing Schwarber and signing re-signing Castellanos after 2019 would have been a good move (though admittedly at the time I was still seduced a bit by Kyle's power potential).

 

I also think that 2018/19 was probably the point where you really want to choose the players you want to extend, and make a strong play.

 

I go back and forth on whether we ever should have gotten rid of Schwarber. I get wanting to mix up the offensive profile that obviously wasn't working, but if you ignore 2020 (when numerous players had terrible years and immediately bounced back this year), his offensive numbers have been a steady progression every year since 2017.

 

2017: .211/.315/.467/.782, 0.1 bWAR

2018: .238/.356/.467/.823, 2.1 bWAR

2019: .250/.339/.531/.871, 2.4 bWAR

2021: .253/.340/.570/.910, 2.2 bWAR so far

 

Every year his BA, SLG, OPS and bWAR have risen. fWAR shows his 2018 being better than 2019 (3.2 vs. 2.6), and its the only year he a positive defensive player. I get it though, he was often frustrating, prone to striking out, grounding into the shift etc, but non-tendering him seemed really short sighted even if it was for cheapass Ricketts reasons. They should have kept Schwarber AND signed Castellanos, but obviously our ownership would have allowed that.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, Hoerner's obviously valuable. I mean the genesis of this convo is how similar he and Madrigal are, literally four days ago Nick brought back a Hall of Fame closer in the midst of maybe his best season.

 

I don't like the idea of trading Hoerner though. I'm among the most optimistic about next season, but even I think next year's team is probably going to be light on starpower. I think we need to get back to the days of having 11 guys fighting for 9 spots. Let Hoerner backup 2B, SS, and CF, kinda like Javy circa 2015 (I know Javy barely touched CF).

I thought the genesis was something about Hoerner getting the Cubs a quality starting pitcher.

 

I don't think he gets them anything good for the rotation, he's 24+ oft injured with a very limited resume. He looks like a more valuable to the Cubs than anybody else kind of player. This team is very short on major league talent for the next couple years. They need him to fill a spot until they decide to start trying again.

[TruffleShuffle]

What? He's a pedigreed, 24-year-old middle infielder with excellent defense and a .388 OBP this year. That is most definitely worth something

 

right, but that's in 150 plate appearances and is a higher OPB than he had in both the minors and in college baseball (and it's being helped along by a .375 babip). there's also a good chance that some of those walks will dry up if he doesn't starting donging every now and then.

 

he definitely has value, i just think he has a profile that presents more value to the cubs at this time than he would fetch on the open trade market.