So...Now What?

[UMFan83]

This was a lost season and Jed had to do what he had to do yesterday. But damn it sucks. We are faced with a team with no identity. Someone will surface but it’s not gonna be anything like the talent + personalities of the guys just traded.

 

The trade I’m most pissed about is Kimbrel to the WS. The return is meh. I was hoping for a helluva lot more. Meanwhile, the Cubs have provided key contributors to the crosstown rivals for their playoff run for this year and next. All this for…Madrigal, Heuer and Q. Damn.

 

The line about the team having no identity - exactly how I feel. Even though the move needed to be made and even if it’s a retool, our most charismatic good players are all gone except Willson. I’m sure in time we will learn to love whoever else we bring in, and they will have their own vibe and feel like our players but for now it’s tough to swallow

[Backtobanks]

Don't care if Rizzo comes back... 1B is so easy to find someone to play and he's probably going to have more back issues as he ages.

 

Would love to re-sign KB or Javy, with Javy the more likely (and less valuable) of the 2.

 

Gotta get some starting pitching - will be interesting to see how Steele and Thompson respond to being stretched out and see how Alzolay finishes the year. If we can count on 2 of them next year to be in the rotation and Hendricks can stop giving up so many dongs, I like our starting point.

 

Want to see Manny Rodriguez, Ben Leeper, etc. get lots of chances in the pen. Fire as many of Brothers, Ryan, Maples, Winkler, etc. into the sun as necessary and bring up any young arms you think are big league caliber.

 

Convince Ross that Heyward doesn't have to play just because we're paying him too much money.

 

I'd like to see Jed trade Bote + prospect(s) for Mancini to play 1B. Sign Pham and Rodon during the offseason. None of these should break the bank while we wait for a few prospects to mature. Madrigal and Hoerner at the top of the lineup with solid OBP followed by Mancini, Contreras, Pham, and Wisdom in the middle. Maybe take a flyer on Thor if his arm rebounds.

[d_money]

I’m tired of hearing about guys who can’t cut it as SP can then become RP. How about we target SP caliber pitchers only? How many fricken RP can we have in the system? Jesus Christ.

[Tim]

My Master Plan - v1.0.0

 

Remainder of 2021:

 

Sit down with Ross and let him know that his job the rest of this year is not to win baseball games. His job the rest of this year is to evaluate players for 2022. That may mean ruffling some veteran feathers. It may mean living with some heartache as inexperienced relievers blow leads.

 

Get playing time for the potentially interesting position players in MLB / at AAA to see what we see. This means that Duffy, Bote, Heyward will need to sit on a regular basis. I'd probably release Duffy to make room on the 40 man to evaluate guys who may have a future with the team.

 

- Happ (can he be fixed again)

- Wisdom

- Alcantara

- Deichmann

- Schwindel

- Hermosillo

- Rivas

- Fargas

 

Evaluate SP to see how many rotation spots we need to fill. Arrieta should have a graceful exit arranged to create space on the 40 man. Limit Alzolay's innings and have him working on his changeup & cutter to lefties at every chance.

- Alzolay

- Mills

- Thompson

- Steele

 

Check out options in the bullpen:

- Rodriguez

- Leeper

- Rucker

- Nance

- Morgan

- Megill

- Abbott

- Mekkes

 

Assets going into offseason 2021:

 

Significant players in bold

 

Position Players:

C - Contreras, Higgins

1B - Rivas, Schwindel

2B - Madrigal, Bote

3B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner, Alcantara

LF - Hermosillo, Deichmann

CF - Happ, Ortega, Fargas

RF - Heyward

 

There's two players there that I'd be very happy going into next year with as a starter: Contreras & Madrigal. I'd love to get Hoerner into a Zobrist-type role to spell multiple positions. It would be great if 1-2 positions could be filled through this year's tryouts.

 

Starting Pitchers:

Hendricks, Mills, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson

 

We're going to need at least 2, likely 3, reliable starters to compete in '22.

 

Relief Pitchers:

Wieck, Wick, Heuer, Brothers, Rodriguez, Rucker, Maples, Adam, Nance, Winkler, Megill, Abbott, etc

 

I'd actually be fine if we didn't add anyone from outside the org to the relief corps in the offseason.

 

Summary of Needs:

 

In varying degrees of need: SP, LF, SP, 1B, CF, SS, 3B, RF, SP

 

2021-22 Free Agents to Target

SS: Could break the bank for Correa or Seager. But I'd probably prefer to offer Semien 4/$80, given that he took a deal for 1/$18 this year

LF/CF: Offer Marte 3/$60

SP: Sign a mid-market SP to a reasonable-term deal: Gray, Matz, etc. Spend what it takes to get at least one of these guys.

SP: Sign an old guy to a 1-3 year deal: Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Morton. If none take it, oh well.

SP: Sign a rehab guy: Thor, ?

 

Trades:

1B: Hosmer - Solve this problem for the Padres and target Hassell in return.

CF: Buxton - He'll play again this year and his numbers will come back to earth. Put together a package and get him - he'll be traded this offseason.

Heyward - Pay all but $3-5m per year for remaining years. Take the hit while payroll can handle it. Free up the roster spot & at bats

 

2022 MLB Team:

2B - Madrigal

SS - Semien

CF - Buxton

C - Contreras

1B - Hosmer

3B - Wisdom

LF - Marte

RF - Happ or 2021 tryout guy; maybe Brennan Davis in the second half.

 

Bench - Hoerner, Bote, catcher, best of 2021 tryouts

 

SP: Hendricks

SP: Old guy or other

SP: Mid-level guy

SP: Alzolay

SP: Mills / Steele / Thompson

 

RP: cast of millions

 

That team can easily be afforded from a payroll perspective. It's not unrealistic in how many guys we need to acquire. It's not a dominant team, but it can compete and win in the NL Central. Without any long-term commitments, it bridges the gap to when the prospect depth starts bubbling up from the minors.

[WrigleyField 22]

What's the realistic bottom out for this roster here on out as far as draft standing?

[Tim]

What's the realistic bottom out for this roster here on out as far as draft standing?

Looking at the projected remaining standings at Fangraphs:

 

The best we could hope for at this point would be fifth. There's a whole cluster of teams in the 69-74 win range, with the Cubs currently projected at 74 wins and a tie for 10th. I'm not sure we'll be bad enough to pass some other bad teams, though. Key will be losing at every opportunity to DET, KC, WAS, MIN, FLA, COL; but I'm not sure how many of those teams we actually play. Let's hope that DET, KC & MIN all play .500 ball against one another.

 

The realistic range is 5th-11th.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We limp along for a few years, some good and some bad. In about 10 years, the Ricketts sell the team and we bring in a hotshot young executive who promises to build from the farm system and commit to becoming good at drafting and developing our own players so that we can have sustained success, and a new generation of Cubs fans believes him when he says we've never tried it before.

[d_money]

We limp along for a few years, some good and some bad. In about 10 years, the Ricketts sell the team and we bring in a hotshot young executive who promises to build from the farm system and commit to becoming good at drafting and developing our own players so that we can have sustained success, and a new generation of Cubs fans believes him when he says we've never tried it before.

Waves and waves….

 

Damn we were taken for a ride. Theo is just as culpable - the lack of minor league and continued development at the ML level was crushing.

[Outshined_One]

If you squint, you can see a playoff caliber bullpen and lineup in 2022 with the right moves and luck in the form of health, rebounds, and callups. Getting one of the top tier SS free agents would allow Nico to take on a Ben Zobrist super utility type role with Madrigal holding down 2B. Things could break the wrong way, but even without a big signing or trade for the lineup, there is enough there to make for a somewhat intriguing 2014-type season.

 

However, I think the rotation is what will hold everything back in 2022, barring some big moves. I don't think the Cubs can rely on Alzolay, Steele, and Thompson to provide more than 100 IP each, much less 100 good quality innings. I'd be okay with them duking it out for the 4th/5th starter roles, but not 2nd/3rd/4th starter. The Cubs need to make a splash in the offseason in the rotation if they want any hope of being competitive in 2022, so we'll see...

[minnesotacubsfan]

We limp along for a few years, some good and some bad. In about 10 years, the Ricketts sell the team and we bring in a hotshot young executive who promises to build from the farm system and commit to becoming good at drafting and developing our own players so that we can have sustained success, and a new generation of Cubs fans believes him when he says we've never tried it before.

 

 

15-18 years between WS wins seems totally acceptable. How completely out of character and optimistic of you, hairy

[Andy]

In case anyone wants to head to Wrigley to see some ex-Cubs:

 

CHW: 8/6-8/8

SF: 9/10-9/12

 

No more games vs. NYM or SD, and we don’t play NYY at all

Wife and I are going to Friday's game. First home game since the trades. She adores Bryzzo and Javy and is probably more bummed than I am.

[Andy]

We limp along for a few years, some good and some bad. In about 10 years, the Ricketts sell the team and we bring in a hotshot young executive who promises to build from the farm system and commit to becoming good at drafting and developing our own players so that we can have sustained success, and a new generation of Cubs fans believes him when he says we've never tried it before.

 

 

15-18 years between WS wins seems totally acceptable. How completely out of character and optimistic of you, hairy

To be fair he never came close to saying whether it would work

[Tim]

If you squint, you can see a playoff caliber bullpen and lineup in 2022 with the right moves and luck in the form of health, rebounds, and callups. Getting one of the top tier SS free agents would allow Nico to take on a Ben Zobrist super utility type role with Madrigal holding down 2B. Things could break the wrong way, but even without a big signing or trade for the lineup, there is enough there to make for a somewhat intriguing 2014-type season.

 

However, I think the rotation is what will hold everything back in 2022, barring some big moves. I don't think the Cubs can rely on Alzolay, Steele, and Thompson to provide more than 100 IP each, much less 100 good quality innings. I'd be okay with them duking it out for the 4th/5th starter roles, but not 2nd/3rd/4th starter. The Cubs need to make a splash in the offseason in the rotation if they want any hope of being competitive in 2022, so we'll see...

I don't think anyone read my master plan v1.0.0

[minnesotacubsfan]

We limp along for a few years, some good and some bad. In about 10 years, the Ricketts sell the team and we bring in a hotshot young executive who promises to build from the farm system and commit to becoming good at drafting and developing our own players so that we can have sustained success, and a new generation of Cubs fans believes him when he says we've never tried it before.

 

 

15-18 years between WS wins seems totally acceptable. How completely out of character and optimistic of you, hairy

To be fair he never came close to saying whether it would work

Pessimism Cubs fan died 5 years ago.

 

Change your attitude

[jersey cubs fan]

If you squint, you can see a playoff caliber bullpen and lineup in 2022 with the right moves and luck in the form of health, rebounds, and callups.

….

Things could break the wrong way, but even without a big signing or trade for the lineup, there is enough there to make for a somewhat intriguing 2014-type season.

..

I’d like to see how this is a playoff caliber lineup without a couple huge signings.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think anyone read my master plan v1.0.0

 

I did. My main critiques would be a couple guys have the likely competition for their market undersold(Gray, Thor, Semien), I’m not a fan of Marte as a target, and Buxton being 1 year from FA is an additional problem to solve, plus Im not sure how beneficial it is to trade Heyward just to get 3-5 mil free. Oh, and the money situation after all the dust has settled is probably a bit dicey, but I didn’t do detailed math.

 

I like the general thinking though and i think it serves as a good template where someone can fill in with their own moves they have fewer quibbles with. I’ll see if I can do a first pass of my own with some specifics, since criticism without alternatives is not terribly sporting.

[David]

I don't think anyone read my master plan v1.0.0

 

I did. My main critiques would be a couple guys have the likely competition for their market undersold(Gray, Thor, Semien), I’m not a fan of Marte as a target, and Buxton being 1 year from FA is an additional problem to solve, plus Im not sure how beneficial it is to trade Heyward just to get 3-5 mil free. Oh, and the money situation after all the dust has settled is probably a bit dicey, but I didn’t do detailed math.

 

I like the general thinking though and i think it serves as a good template where someone can fill in with their own moves they have fewer quibbles with. I’ll see if I can do a first pass of my own with some specifics, since criticism without alternatives is not terribly sporting.

 

i'd have them pay heywards full salary and have him off the roster if i could

[Tim]

I don't think anyone read my master plan v1.0.0

 

I did. My main critiques would be a couple guys have the likely competition for their market undersold(Gray, Thor, Semien), I’m not a fan of Marte as a target, and Buxton being 1 year from FA is an additional problem to solve, plus Im not sure how beneficial it is to trade Heyward just to get 3-5 mil free. Oh, and the money situation after all the dust has settled is probably a bit dicey, but I didn’t do detailed math.

 

I like the general thinking though and i think it serves as a good template where someone can fill in with their own moves they have fewer quibbles with. I’ll see if I can do a first pass of my own with some specifics, since criticism without alternatives is not terribly sporting.

 

i'd have them pay heywards full salary and have him off the roster if i could

Yeah, it's more about freeing up the roster spot & at bats

[Brian]

Maybe I'm naive but I just see too much invested in the Cubs being competitive for there to be a prolonged (purposely) bad stretch. They need people coming to Wrigleyville and people watching on TV way more than they did in the first 5 years of the Ricketts ownership.

[Tim]

I don't think anyone read my master plan v1.0.0

 

I did. My main critiques would be a couple guys have the likely competition for their market undersold(Gray, Thor, Semien), I’m not a fan of Marte as a target, and Buxton being 1 year from FA is an additional problem to solve, plus Im not sure how beneficial it is to trade Heyward just to get 3-5 mil free. Oh, and the money situation after all the dust has settled is probably a bit dicey, but I didn’t do detailed math.

 

I like the general thinking though and i think it serves as a good template where someone can fill in with their own moves they have fewer quibbles with. I’ll see if I can do a first pass of my own with some specifics, since criticism without alternatives is not terribly sporting.

No worries about the quibbles - you picked many spots where the master plan vX.X.X is likely to be highly variable. Here were my thoughts on those particular choices

 

- Gray is just an example of a SP who won't be on the top tier. Could be one of a few other guys, too.

- Thor is very optional to the plan and doesn't even show up down below his initial mention

- Semien had to settle for a one year contract this year and will be competing with younger and more highly perceived competition. It may take more to sign him than what I suggested, but it shouldn't take that much more

- I'm not huge on Marte and dithered about which OF I wanted to add. I'm definitely not hung up on him and I think there are several viable alternatives

- Buxton is really only a target if his performance drops when he comes back this year. I wanted to add someone by trade instead of FA since it is hard to sign too many guys in a single offseason. He stood out as being a guy that's a single year away from FA that is likely to be available.

[jersey cubs fan]

Maybe I'm naive but I just see too much invested in the Cubs being competitive for there to be a prolonged (purposely) bad stretch. They need people coming to Wrigleyville and people watching on TV way more than they did in the first 5 years of the Ricketts ownership.

It takes a very long stretch of major losing to truly damper attendance. They can live with 80+ loss seasons a for a couple years and they will have to. You start going 90+ and prolong it for 5 years and we’ll see, but they have a huge cushion for living with losses and they’ve shown they are more than happy to do it.

[Tim]

What's the realistic bottom out for this roster here on out as far as draft standing?

Going to be tough to tank at least one day of every five as long as Hendricks is pitching.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Maybe I'm naive but I just see too much invested in the Cubs being competitive for there to be a prolonged (purposely) bad stretch. They need people coming to Wrigleyville and people watching on TV way more than they did in the first 5 years of the Ricketts ownership.

It takes a very long stretch of major losing to truly damper attendance. They can live with 80+ loss seasons a for a couple years and they will have to. You start going 90+ and prolong it for 5 years and we’ll see, but they have a huge cushion for living with losses and they’ve shown they are more than happy to do it.

Unless you gut the team and trade away guys who have become legends.

 

I could see a tank effort backfiring on them

[UK]

My Master Plan - v1.0.0

 

Remainder of 2021:

 

Sit down with Ross and let him know that his job the rest of this year is not to win baseball games. His job the rest of this year is to evaluate players for 2022. That may mean ruffling some veteran feathers. It may mean living with some heartache as inexperienced relievers blow leads.

 

Get playing time for the potentially interesting position players in MLB / at AAA to see what we see. This means that Duffy, Bote, Heyward will need to sit on a regular basis. I'd probably release Duffy to make room on the 40 man to evaluate guys who may have a future with the team.

 

- Happ (can he be fixed again)

- Wisdom

- Alcantara

- Deichmann

- Schwindel

- Hermosillo

- Rivas

- Fargas

 

Evaluate SP to see how many rotation spots we need to fill. Arrieta should have a graceful exit arranged to create space on the 40 man. Limit Alzolay's innings and have him working on his changeup & cutter to lefties at every chance.

- Alzolay

- Mills

- Thompson

- Steele

 

Check out options in the bullpen:

- Rodriguez

- Leeper

- Rucker

- Nance

- Morgan

- Megill

- Abbott

- Mekkes

 

Assets going into offseason 2021:

 

Significant players in bold

 

Position Players:

C - Contreras, Higgins

1B - Rivas, Schwindel

2B - Madrigal, Bote

3B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner, Alcantara

LF - Hermosillo, Deichmann

CF - Happ, Ortega, Fargas

RF - Heyward

 

There's two players there that I'd be very happy going into next year with as a starter: Contreras & Madrigal. I'd love to get Hoerner into a Zobrist-type role to spell multiple positions. It would be great if 1-2 positions could be filled through this year's tryouts.

 

Starting Pitchers:

Hendricks, Mills, Alzolay, Steele, Thompson

 

We're going to need at least 2, likely 3, reliable starters to compete in '22.

 

Relief Pitchers:

Wieck, Wick, Heuer, Brothers, Rodriguez, Rucker, Maples, Adam, Nance, Winkler, Megill, Abbott, etc

 

I'd actually be fine if we didn't add anyone from outside the org to the relief corps in the offseason.

 

Summary of Needs:

 

In varying degrees of need: SP, LF, SP, 1B, CF, SS, 3B, RF, SP

 

2021-22 Free Agents to Target

SS: Could break the bank for Correa or Seager. But I'd probably prefer to offer Semien 4/$80, given that he took a deal for 1/$18 this year

LF/CF: Offer Marte 3/$60

SP: Sign a mid-market SP to a reasonable-term deal: Gray, Matz, etc. Spend what it takes to get at least one of these guys.

SP: Sign an old guy to a 1-3 year deal: Scherzer, Verlander, Greinke, Morton. If none take it, oh well.

SP: Sign a rehab guy: Thor, ?

 

Trades:

1B: Hosmer - Solve this problem for the Padres and target Hassell in return.

CF: Buxton - He'll play again this year and his numbers will come back to earth. Put together a package and get him - he'll be traded this offseason.

Heyward - Pay all but $3-5m per year for remaining years. Take the hit while payroll can handle it. Free up the roster spot & at bats

 

2022 MLB Team:

2B - Madrigal

SS - Semien

CF - Buxton

C - Contreras

1B - Hosmer

3B - Wisdom

LF - Marte

RF - Happ or 2021 tryout guy; maybe Brennan Davis in the second half.

 

Bench - Hoerner, Bote, catcher, best of 2021 tryouts

 

SP: Hendricks

SP: Old guy or other

SP: Mid-level guy

SP: Alzolay

SP: Mills / Steele / Thompson

 

RP: cast of millions

 

That team can easily be afforded from a payroll perspective. It's not unrealistic in how many guys we need to acquire. It's not a dominant team, but it can compete and win in the NL Central. Without any long-term commitments, it bridges the gap to when the prospect depth starts bubbling up from the minors.

 

Fwiw, I would throw Heuer into the mix of Alzolay, Thompson, Steele as far as finding out what you might have in the SP future. I'd love to see a piggyback of the 4 in two spots of the rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]