So...Now What?

[Omar]

Now... we wait.

[We Got The Whole 9]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

Tampa loves fast groundball hitters. Shop there.

[toonsterwu]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

You're digging a deeper hole in another part of the yard with this idea.

 

Maybe. I don't know. I'm not enamored with running both of the guys out there. I know the value aspect ... don't get me wrong about that. Both are valuable guys who can fill a role. I'm just not sure I see two of those guys as being a part of a key aspect of an offense for the next core. (I'd obviously lean towards moving Hoerner instead of Madrigal). I also wouldn't do it if they couldn't make a splash this winter on a shortstop.

 

I'm not suggesting to haphazardly give them away. That said, with the Marlins having multiple arms with multiple years of control doing well in the majors (Rogers, Alcantara, Lopez) ... and with their system being deeper on the arm side ... the fit and need seem there.

[toonsterwu]

A case of sudden onset laryngitis left me bored as heck today, and I wasted a bunch of time looking at baseball stuff.

 

I don't really expect it to happen, but reading the random news today, I'm growing more enamored with the idea of shopping Hoerner ... and maybe even Madrigal. I'm specifically thinking the Marlins and Athletics here, both teams that could use a young MI. With the Marlins looking at C as well, I wonder what pitcher a Hoerner/Contreras package could potentially land. Of course, Hoerner could fit for the A's as well, with Jed Lowrie hitting FA again.

 

I'd rather not have to spend big on multiple arms. 1 maybe, and then take a flyer on 1 or 2.

Tampa loves fast groundball hitters. Shop there.

 

Maybe. I was looking at Oakland and Miami because of their needs there. Oakland has a clear need at 2nd with Lowrie hitting FA. Nick Allen is a good MI having a good year, but he's a good fit at short and could probably use another year in the minors. Andrus has one more year left on the deal. They could certainly go to Nick Allen at 2nd, before sliding him to short.

 

Marlins have Rojas, who is fine, but probably need to find a young guy up the middle and their system is a bit thinner there (at least, off the top). They also have a lot of controllable arms in the majors doing well, and a lot of arms in the minors.

 

With Lowe/Franco/Brujan/Edwards, I didn't really see a match for shopping a Hoerner/Madrigal type there. I'm sure they'd listen, Rays being the Rays.

[toonsterwu]

Your core is your core. Its the best you have. If Rizzo, Bryant and Baez aren't good enough (and I am not blind to all there faults) then you better find replacements as good or better. That's what GMs are supposed to do. And the idea that all 3 of these guys were looking for 100s of millions of dollars... theres no evidence... and anyway that's there right to do.

 

Look at it this way, the Cubs as an organization look WORSE then they did pre2012. They look cheap, miserly and spendthrifts. They look unrealistic and in sell mode. More concern was paid to the effing Marquee Network than to the team itself it seems. Lets see how much they spend. Right now as it stands, The White Sox are miles above the Cubs as a team and organization. If I were a player I would NOT want to come to Chicago... unless it was the White Sox.

 

Expect 'rumors' of the Ricketts wanting to sell in a few months. DO IT. SELL, YOU BASTARDS.

 

Well, didn't Rizzo turn down 5/70? Or was it 5/80? It does seem to suggest he wanted a bit more, or bet on himself to get that. Giving him more ... is debatable considering clear signs of decline (doesn't mean he can't have a hot run like his start with the Yankees). Cubs claimed to have offered Bryant big money - Bryant's side said otherwise (or something like that), so not sure who to believe, but Boras was taking that to FA. I don't believe we ever had specific rumors on Baez's demands and numbers - maybe I missed it. Only thing I recall was that it was close, then the pandemic happened, and then 600 or so AB's showing Baez going backwards offensively happened.

 

Functionally, I don't fault them for any of the moves or situations in these three cases. I think one of the critiques made was that it should never have gotten to this point. That may be fair, but considering what we know now on the individual players, signing them down for what they wanted would be irresponsible in many respects.

 

The thing is, in baseball, you can rarely find replacements as good or better while carrying your old core without having guys from the system to supplement it. It's ridiculously hard. Most organizations haven't shown the ability to maintain a strong system and flip the core while carrying the old core - basically, what the Dodgers are attempting to do, which is win now and flip their core in the process. The Cubs attempted to extend the core, in some respects, but then some of their moves didn't pan out, big and small, even if they were logical. I mean, if we had an Eloy JImenez around to help add to the core now, it would be a big factor.

 

Should the Ricketts spend more? Maybe, but dipping money continuously hasn't worked for many teams. The Phillies have been stuck in a state of mediocrity since their old core faded away. They spent big on Bryce, and he's been fine, but it hasn't worked. Same goes for the Angels - the best player in baseball has been supplemented by FA moves/veteran trades through the year. He's hurt now, and they have another transcendent player, but they basically acknowledged they couldn't compete this year because they didn't have the depth and their SP has been horrid.

 

I don't know if I buy the White Sox as miles ahead of the Cubs. Are they ahead, right nnow, as of 8/2/2021? Sure. They tore it down, built up their system, got good. We have to see how willing they are to maintain it. They still have a middle of the pack payroll. Some big money is coming off in the next few years for them, and they are lucky some youngsters extended already, but they'll need to add in FA to really maintain a run, as their system isn't all that interesting.

 

That said, the one thing I agree on is that the Cubs will have to reinvest some of these funds. They are claiming that they aren't going through a full rebuild like last time ... if so, they'll have to spend, as the system isn't anywhere near close to providing the assets to accelerate a rebuild. We'll have to wait and see.

[The_Achiever]

I am going to be very interested to see what these three make in free agency. Is anyone going to throw $200 million at Baez or Bryant? Why do I see them both getting something like 5/130.

 

The financial landscape has changed a lot in the past few years when the Cubs allegedly made these $200 million offers.

[Bertz]

I am going to be very interested to see what these three make in free agency. Is anyone going to throw $200 million at Baez or Bryant? Why do I see them both getting something like 5/130.

 

The financial landscape has changed a lot in the past few years when the Cubs allegedly made these $200 million offers.

 

Yeah I don't think either gets anywhere close to $200M.

Honestly though there's a lot of that with this FA class. I think as of right now I'd only expect Carlos Correa to top that amount, but there might be like a dozen $100M deals.

[Tim]

I am going to be very interested to see what these three make in free agency. Is anyone going to throw $200 million at Baez or Bryant? Why do I see them both getting something like 5/130.

 

The financial landscape has changed a lot in the past few years when the Cubs allegedly made these $200 million offers.

 

Yeah I don't think either gets anywhere close to $200M.

Honestly though there's a lot of that with this FA class. I think as of right now I'd only expect Carlos Correa to top that amount, but there might be like a dozen $100M deals.

Yeah, when I was working on my plan I saw a lot of good to really good players, but no great ones. Even Correa's been too up and down for me to be super comfortable giving him that $200M deal, though I'm guessing someone will do it.

[toonsterwu]

I think Bryant's the only one that might get there. I don't think he'll get Arenado's contract, but I could see him get close to 30 mil a year. Maybe it ends up something like 7/200 or so, with the last year as an option.

 

I doubt Baez gets there. If Rizzo gets anywhere near the 5/70 or 5/80 (I don't recall what it was), I'll be mildly surprised. I could see him perhaps top that AAV if he gets hot down the stretch, but I expect more a shorter term deal, maybe 3 years.

 

I think, as of now, there's only going to be one, blow it away type deal, and that's Correa. If Seagar finishes strong, maybe.

[CubinNY]

I think Bryant's the only one that might get there. I don't think he'll get Arenado's contract, but I could see him get close to 30 mil a year. Maybe it ends up something like 7/200 or so, with the last year as an option.

 

I doubt Baez gets there. If Rizzo gets anywhere near the 5/70 or 5/80 (I don't recall what it was), I'll be mildly surprised. I could see him perhaps top that AAV if he gets hot down the stretch, but I expect more a shorter term deal, maybe 3 years.

 

I think, as of now, there's only going to be one, blow it away type deal, and that's Correa. If Seagar finishes strong, maybe.

I really want the Cubs to make a strong run Seager, with Turner now in LA I don't think they try to resign him. I don't know what other big market teams (if one believes the Cubs are a big market team) will be bidding on him though.

[UMFan83]

Jed is making media rounds this morning. Was on ESPN 1000 earlier and jumping on the Score in 20 minutes or so. Here is what he said on ESPN:

 

 

 

Seems like a lot different tone than a couple days ago. The "wouldnt confirm a rebuild or reset" thing is interesting and probably needs additional context to understand what he was trying to say there. Some people on Twitter are saying he was saying this because we don't know the ramifications of the new CBA and how that will change things.

[squally1313]

Well that pretty much puts an end to any talk on bringing those dudes back.

[Bertz]

I am going to be very interested to see what these three make in free agency. Is anyone going to throw $200 million at Baez or Bryant? Why do I see them both getting something like 5/130.

 

The financial landscape has changed a lot in the past few years when the Cubs allegedly made these $200 million offers.

 

Yeah I don't think either gets anywhere close to $200M.

Honestly though there's a lot of that with this FA class. I think as of right now I'd only expect Carlos Correa to top that amount, but there might be like a dozen $100M deals.

Yeah, when I was working on my plan I saw a lot of good to really good players, but no great ones. Even Correa's been too up and down for me to be super comfortable giving him that $200M deal, though I'm guessing someone will do it.

 

I was most shocked at how little production Seager's had since 2017. My perception was that he never really stopped playing at a 6+ WAR pace when he was on the field. Instead it appears to very much be a KB situation.

[toonsterwu]

Those comments are ... fascinating. Instead of all the conciliatory talk ... It's a business, in the end.

 

I'm more fascinated on the sudden unwillingness on whether or not this is a full rebuild. Would love to know the context if someone has a chance to listen.

[UMFan83]

Those comments are ... fascinating. Instead of all the conciliatory talk ... It's a business, in the end.

 

I'm more fascinated on the sudden unwillingness on whether or not this is a full rebuild. Would love to know the context if someone has a chance to listen.

 

He is on the Score right now. I forgot to turn it on, but the Score's web player allows you to easily rewind to earlier in the show unlike ESPN. I have a work call in a few minutes but I'll probably listen afterwards. But if anyone hears it, feel free to share.

[mtkafka]

At least we still have Heyward. :banghead:

 

After losing so much talent the last five years without getting much of anything, I'm surprised I'm still a fan of this team.

 

Also we ARE a big market team.. how can people still not think that?!??!

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193637/franchise-value-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

 

Its for 2021, the link is updated. And the Cubs come in fourth just barely behind the Red Sox.

 

Dodgers and Yanks take the top but not that far ahead.

[UMFan83]

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193637/franchise-value-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

 

Its for 2021, the link is updated. And the Cubs come in fourth just barely behind the Red Sox.

 

Dodgers and Yanks take the top but not that far ahead.

 

Right...and the Ricketts bought the team 12 years ago for like $800m. The franchise value isn't liquid but it does mean that the family isn't going to go bankrupt if they spent too much on the team after renovating Wrigley and fronting a bunch of construction projects around the park. They have the ability to be a top 3 payroll but choose not to. They remind me of Reinsdorf and the Bulls, who also rakes in a crapload of revenue but has been hesitant to spend like it unless the team is a piece or two away. The only time Reinsdorf was willing to go over the luxury tax is when they were coming off an ECF appearance and needed a SG to take the next step. It's the same kind of thing too, he is clever enough to have excuses to appease a majority of people. 'Of course the Bulls were bottom 10 in payroll for the last 4 years, often flirting with missing the salary floor, they were rebuilding and we don't spend just to spend' is what they say even though JR is out there selling 2nd round picks for cash.

[Rex Buckingham]

I mean, if we had an Eloy JImenez around to help add to the core now, it would be a big factor.

 

In fairness, Eloy would be physically incapable of playing outfield in Wrigley without maiming himself running into the bricks.

[David]

i lose zero sleep over eloy jimenez

[Sammy Sofa]

i lose zero sleep over eloy jimenez

 

Yeah, but you don't need to sleep anyway.

[CubinNY]

i lose zero sleep over eloy jimenez

 

Yeah, but you don't need to sleep anyway.

He means reboot.

[UMFan83]

 

It's by design but still crazy to see how much salary they shed

[CubinNY]

 

It's by design but still crazy to see how much salary they shed

:twisted:

[CubinNY]

 

It's by design but still crazy to see how much salary they shed

:twisted:

[Bertz]

 

It's by design but still crazy to see how much salary they shed

 

"On the active roster" is doing some pretty heavy lifting. The Cubs sent Rizzo and Baez's full salaries with them, and did a big chunk for Joc. They also offered with other teams to send cash with Kimbrel and Bryant (the Sox and Giants were among the few teams that didn't want it). The Ricketts got their full year of cheapness in when they entered the season with a horsefeathering $170M payroll.