Jake is Back

[Cubswin11]

I'd rather see Alzolay, Tyson Miller, etc get starts over Arrieta. Guess why I'm pissed off here. I don't need to see a 2016 reunion, I'm tired of bringing back old players. The Cubs actually made a great decision when they let him walk.

With the shortened year last year there is an extreme need for innings. Jake, Hendricks, Davies, Williams and Mills probably shouldn’t be counted on for more than 145-165 innings. Alzolay is still likely in the rotation even after adding Jake. The Miller’s of the world will get their chances with injuries, pitch limits, etc. horsefeathers, Adbert has thrown ~110, ~40, ~80, ~20 innings the last 4 years. If he’s starting every 4-6 days he’s gonna hit an innings limit by July or so.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I agree with the posts of being irrationally happy and also good nostalgia during a season that we likely will need it.

 

From a pure contract standpoint, I'm actually surprised he got that much. It doesn't matter, of course. It's only one year. But I thought he'd have to accept more in the $3 million range from a team.

[beantowncubfan]

I'd rather see Alzolay, Tyson Miller, etc get starts over Arrieta. Guess why I'm pissed off here. I don't need to see a 2016 reunion, I'm tired of bringing back old players. The Cubs actually made a great decision when they let him walk.

With the shortened year last year there is an extreme need for innings. Jake, Hendricks, Davies, Williams and Mills probably shouldn’t be counted on for more than 145-165 innings. Alzolay is still likely in the rotation even after adding Jake. The Miller’s of the world will get their chances with injuries, pitch limits, etc. horsefeathers, Adbert has thrown ~110, ~40, ~80, ~20 innings the last 4 years. If he’s starting every 4-6 days he’s gonna hit an innings limit by July or so.

I wonder if the shortened season last year will help some of these veteran pitchers...

 

 

 

Meh, probably not.

[Tim]

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I'm guessing he means to say "starting pitcher"

[Brian]

? That was the last playoff game the Cubs won.

[UMFan83]

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I'm guessing he means to say "starting pitcher"

 

? Jake was the winning pitcher in Game 4 of the 2017 NLCS and the Cubs are 0-4 in playoff games since then

[Brian]

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[Bertz]

So with all appropriate caveats about how much of a horsefeathsrs PTR is and how it shouldn't have been an either/or... you've gotta chalk it up to Jed here. He turned Darvish and Vic into

 

Davies

Joc

Jake

Romine

4 good prospects

 

Plus whatever You'd money can buy in '22/'23. In a season where pitcher attrition is going to be through the roof? Yu was my favorite player on the team by a good bit but it's really hard not to say this is better for the team's competitive outlook.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So with all appropriate caveats about how much of a horsefeathsrs PTR is and how it shouldn't have been an either/or... you've gotta chalk it up to Jed here. He turned Darvish and Vic into

 

Davies

Joc

Jake

Romine

4 good prospects

 

Plus whatever You'd money can buy in '22/'23. In a season where pitcher attrition is going to be through the roof? Yu was my favorite player on the team by a good bit but it's really hard not to say this is better for the team's competitive outlook.

 

.....until they still trade a couple stars in the next week.

[17 Seconds]

selling good players and then giving 7 million to jake arrieta, funkin classic

[Derwood]

I have little to no expectations for the season, so Jake being better than “meh” would only be a bonus

[Tim]

? That was the last playoff game the Cubs won.

I blame the beer for causing me to misread that

[Andy]

I agree with the posts of being irrationally happy and also good nostalgia during a season that we likely will need it.

 

From a pure contract standpoint, I'm actually surprised he got that much. It doesn't matter, of course. It's only one year. But I thought he'd have to accept more in the $3 million range from a team.

Take it FWIW, but one reporter (can't remember which) said that he actually had better offers and chose this one instead.

[jersey cubs fan]

I agree with the posts of being irrationally happy and also good nostalgia during a season that we likely will need it.

 

From a pure contract standpoint, I'm actually surprised he got that much. It doesn't matter, of course. It's only one year. But I thought he'd have to accept more in the $3 million range from a team.

Take it FWIW, but one reporter (can't remember which) said that he actually had better offers and chose this one instead.

 

Every free agent in history had turned down better offers to go to where he truly wanted to be.

[chopsx9]

Give me 1 or 2 throwback nights at Wrigley where he's got it working like 2015-16 and I really won't care much what else happens from this.

Add in a dong somewhere along the line and I'm right there with you.

[17 Seconds]

I agree with the posts of being irrationally happy and also good nostalgia during a season that we likely will need it.

 

From a pure contract standpoint, I'm actually surprised he got that much. It doesn't matter, of course. It's only one year. But I thought he'd have to accept more in the $3 million range from a team.

Take it FWIW, but one reporter (can't remember which) said that he actually had better offers and chose this one instead.

 

Every free agent in history had turned down better offers to go to where he truly wanted to be.

 

the better offer was actually 5 million to play on a real team

[MWV]

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Wait, what part of the Capitol was this taken in?

[CubsWin]

So the 40-man is full and the Cubs still need to add Marisnick and Arrieta. Who goes? Alcantara? Two pitchers? Or is there a trade coming?

[Cubswin11]

So the 40-man is full and the Cubs still need to add Marisnick and Arrieta. Who goes? Alcantara? Two pitchers? Or is there a trade coming?

If I had to guess... Maples and Norwood seem to be the top two cut candidates. Maybe Ryan (with Chafin in and if Wieck is looking healthy plus Steele and other non 40-man guys he would make sense since there’s plenty of LHRP options) and also maybe Wieck if they feel he’s broken. Could also send Fenter back or trade some nothing prospect for him to clear the spot if they want to keep him. Then there’s also a trade of some guy(s) like KB/Willy/etc.

[CubsWin]

So the 40-man is full and the Cubs still need to add Marisnick and Arrieta. Who goes? Alcantara? Two pitchers? Or is there a trade coming?

If I had to guess... Maples and Norwood seem to be the top two cut candidates. Maybe Ryan (with Chafin in and if Wieck is looking healthy plus Steele and other non 40-man guys he would make sense since there’s plenty of LHRP options) and also maybe Wieck if they feel he’s broken. Could also send Fenter back or trade some nothing prospect for him to clear the spot if they want to keep him. Then there’s also a trade of some guy(s) like KB/Willy/etc.

Yeah, those are my thoughts as well, though I didn't think of Norwood.

[Cubswin11]

So the 40-man is full and the Cubs still need to add Marisnick and Arrieta. Who goes? Alcantara? Two pitchers? Or is there a trade coming?

If I had to guess... Maples and Norwood seem to be the top two cut candidates. Maybe Ryan (with Chafin in and if Wieck is looking healthy plus Steele and other non 40-man guys he would make sense since there’s plenty of LHRP options) and also maybe Wieck if they feel he’s broken. Could also send Fenter back or trade some nothing prospect for him to clear the spot if they want to keep him. Then there’s also a trade of some guy(s) like KB/Willy/etc.

Yeah, those are my thoughts as well, though I didn't think of Norwood.

I’d really lean Ryan if Wieck is healthy. With the 3 batter min he doesn’t have much value, plus if he’s cut now we save if not his entire salary like 80-90% of it. Granted it’s only $800,000 but it’s something.

[CyHawk_Cub]

"Nostalgia" as a concept has essentially been destroyed for me over the past few years. I just hope Jake performs well enough to net us an upside A ball arm at the deadline.

[Post Count Padder]

I assume this does mean a six man rotation. Gonna need innings and the shortened season definitely effed with some guys. So yeah looking at Hendricks, Davies, Jake, Mills, Williams, Alzolay and when those guys need a rest Miller and Abbott come into play. Maybe Shelby Miller.

[squally1313]

So with all appropriate caveats about how much of a horsefeathsrs PTR is and how it shouldn't have been an either/or... you've gotta chalk it up to Jed here. He turned Darvish and Vic into

 

Davies

Joc

Jake

Romine

4 good prospects

 

Plus whatever You'd money can buy in '22/'23. In a season where pitcher attrition is going to be through the roof? Yu was my favorite player on the team by a good bit but it's really hard not to say this is better for the team's competitive outlook.

 

We got a handful of pitchers who maybe, potentially will put up more WAR combined in way more innings than Darvish will do by himself, a Schwarber clone without the memories, a worse and older backup catcher, and 4 teenagers who won't sniff Wrigley until the few remaining good players we have are sold off or washed up. Yay.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So with all appropriate caveats about how much of a horsefeathsrs PTR is and how it shouldn't have been an either/or... you've gotta chalk it up to Jed here. He turned Darvish and Vic into

 

Davies

Joc

Jake

Romine

4 good prospects

 

Plus whatever You'd money can buy in '22/'23. In a season where pitcher attrition is going to be through the roof? Yu was my favorite player on the team by a good bit but it's really hard not to say this is better for the team's competitive outlook.

 

We got a handful of pitchers who maybe, potentially will put up more WAR combined in way more innings than Darvish will do by himself, a Schwarber clone without the memories, a worse and older backup catcher, and 4 teenagers who won't sniff Wrigley until the few remaining good players we have are sold off or washed up. Yay.

 

I'm not a huge fan of the specific players involved here, but to play devil's advocate, I think we've got a bit too much recency bias with how Darvish's production is being assumed. He was phenomenal last year, but consistency has never been his hallmark, and (relatedly), neither has pitch economy which will likely play a big factor in how much value he can accrue this year in particular. ZiPS has him at 3.1 fWAR in 151 IP this year, and while I don't think it's way off, I think it's closer to being optimistic than pessimistic. There's more than a few potential outcomes where Davies' durability plus a small tweak or Arrieta getting a second wind out of Philly lead to either of them outproducing Darvish(the biggest injury risk of the group) alone, never mind the rest of players Darvish's money may have been put towards.

 

My biggest criticism of Hoyer's offseason so far has been the shape of the returns he's gotten and the players he's targeted. Some of it is more understandable than others, I can kinda see the approach to this season's pitching being a one off in terms of getting across the 2021 bridge where no one will be able to add maximum value and on the other side you have clarity about the position player core + the farm system in a full season. So even though I'd rather have had folks with more team control or a likely future beyond 2021 than Davies and Arrieta, I can live with it. Similar things could be said about Joc too, and my feelings that the Darvish return is appropriate value but should have been on average closer to MLB is still true.