Joc

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll have to get over my Dodger-based dislike for him, but this made me feel a little bit better:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Damning with faint praise of course, but Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Joc/Bote, Heyward, Hoerner is the best lineup in the division, and if it's not it'll be because the tentpoles failed which means there probably wasn't a good way to make it successful in 2021 regardless of circumstances like payroll.

[squally1313]

I'll have to get over my Dodger-based dislike for him, but this made me feel a little bit better:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Damning with faint praise of course, but Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Joc/Bote, Heyward, Hoerner is the best lineup in the division, and if it's not it'll be because the tentpoles failed which means there probably wasn't a good way to make it successful in 2021 regardless of circumstances like payroll.

 

Getting off subject here, but Hoerner vs Bote is a weird case of 'are we rebuilding' vs 'are we trying to make the playoffs'. Because I'll take Hoerner in 3-5 years, but I'd need to see a lot more than what I saw last year to give him the starting nod over Bote at second in a 'trying' year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'll have to get over my Dodger-based dislike for him, but this made me feel a little bit better:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Damning with faint praise of course, but Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Joc/Bote, Heyward, Hoerner is the best lineup in the division, and if it's not it'll be because the tentpoles failed which means there probably wasn't a good way to make it successful in 2021 regardless of circumstances like payroll.

 

Getting off subject here, but Hoerner vs Bote is a weird case of 'are we rebuilding' vs 'are we trying to make the playoffs'. Because I'll take Hoerner in 3-5 years, but I'd need to see a lot more than what I saw last year to give him the starting nod over Bote at second in a 'trying' year.

 

Yeah you can play around with things a bit(Hoerner v. Bote, Joc v. Bote, Hoerner v. scrap heap LH 2B, Heyward v. Ervin against LHP), and obviously over a full season the playing time won't neatly reflect the baseline lineup. But I was encouraged that there's a strong baseline and that these decisions are mostly around who the 7th or 8th best hitter is in your 'normal' lineup.

 

Having said this I fully expect Contreras to be traded for 3 shares of GME by Tuesday.

[jersey cubs fan]

He gets 1/7

 

Jed sucks

He's probably slightly better than Schwarber and he's getting significantly less money. It's a perfectly cromulent move all on its own.

Does anybody remember what Schwarber’s arb projection was? I was thinking 8 vs Joc’s 7.

 

Unless you really distrust arb projections, seems like the comp should be Schwarber for arb vs Joc as FA, rather than vs Schwarber’s 10 from the Nats.

Yeah this was my point. Sure he's getting significantly less than Schwarbers Nats contract but the arbitration estimates for Kyle were right around this amount.

 

And he might also suck in LF. His foot speed is dropping every year, he's always had bad grades on his reads and jumps. He should also be entirely unplayable vs LHP.

If you're worrying about either of these guys sucking in LF, I'd be much more worry about Kyle Schwarber's body letting him down than Joc's.

[mias_tisg]

He gets 1/7

 

Jed sucks

Huh? This is actually good

[SaorsaDaonnan]

My take is that it’s as much about shaking things up as it is about wanting that little bit of extra defense or fastball hitting, or the extra mil. I’m not saying they don’t value all of the later, as I think they really do, but basically, I think Jed may see lateral moves away from the 2020 status quo as a big plus.

 

Personally, I agree that psychological factors were big issues in 19 and maybe 20, but I think that falls on leadership for putting guys in a high pressure situation, conspicuously not doing much to help in the offseasons, and trapping them for a year with the Russell experience and an increasingly checked out Joe Maddon. As much I get the frustration people experience when hearing about millionaires’ sensitive feelings, job performance is most definitely affected by bad clubhouses. Who among you would say 2019 didn’t feel like 2004?

 

I don’t share the feeling that pivoting away from longtime Cubs is necessary for the psychological reboot, as I think bringing in Ross and making the obvious kinds of big market transactions would have done it. But I do think Jed is thinking this way.

Edited January 29, 2021 by SaorsaDaonnan

[squally1313]

I'll have to get over my Dodger-based dislike for him, but this made me feel a little bit better:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Damning with faint praise of course, but Happ, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras, Joc/Bote, Heyward, Hoerner is the best lineup in the division, and if it's not it'll be because the tentpoles failed which means there probably wasn't a good way to make it successful in 2021 regardless of circumstances like payroll.

 

Getting off subject here, but Hoerner vs Bote is a weird case of 'are we rebuilding' vs 'are we trying to make the playoffs'. Because I'll take Hoerner in 3-5 years, but I'd need to see a lot more than what I saw last year to give him the starting nod over Bote at second in a 'trying' year.

 

Yeah you can play around with things a bit(Hoerner v. Bote, Joc v. Bote, Hoerner v. scrap heap LH 2B, Heyward v. Ervin against LHP), and obviously over a full season the playing time won't neatly reflect the baseline lineup. But I was encouraged that there's a strong baseline and that these decisions are mostly around who the 7th or 8th best hitter is in your 'normal' lineup.

 

Having said this I fully expect Contreras to be traded for 3 shares of GME by Tuesday.

 

Yeah wrong place for this discussion, just keep thinking about the best path for Hoerner. If this was still normal times, you bat him leadoff and put him at shortstop or centerfield in Iowa every day and hope he forces his way up (hopefully around the time Bote's BABIP turns around and his dirt cheap contract is suddenly super attractive). But now, who even knows what minor league baseball looks like. He needs the development time, but I think we started down the rebuild road and then watched the rest of the division follow us into mediocrity.

[squally1313]

He's probably slightly better than Schwarber and he's getting significantly less money. It's a perfectly cromulent move all on its own.

Does anybody remember what Schwarber’s arb projection was? I was thinking 8 vs Joc’s 7.

 

Unless you really distrust arb projections, seems like the comp should be Schwarber for arb vs Joc as FA, rather than vs Schwarber’s 10 from the Nats.

Yeah this was my point. Sure he's getting significantly less than Schwarbers Nats contract but the arbitration estimates for Kyle were right around this amount.

 

And he might also suck in LF. His foot speed is dropping every year, he's always had bad grades on his reads and jumps. He should also be entirely unplayable vs LHP.

If you're worrying about either of these guys sucking in LF, I'd be much more worry about Kyle Schwarber's body letting him down than Joc's.

 

I understand your point from just a 'look at him' perspective, but outside of a pretty freak accident where he then proceeded to exceed everyone's expectations in terms of recovery, I can't really remember a single injury he's had, and he's shown an ability(?) to alter his body to try to fit his approach.

 

Pederson seems to have been incredibly healthy in his career, so he probably still wins the comparison, but not as worried about Schwarber's health as I used to be.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This would be a lot better if the Cubs hadn’t just traded their best pitcher.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah this was my point. Sure he's getting significantly less than Schwarbers Nats contract but the arbitration estimates for Kyle were right around this amount.

 

And he might also suck in LF. His foot speed is dropping every year, he's always had bad grades on his reads and jumps. He should also be entirely unplayable vs LHP.

If you're worrying about either of these guys sucking in LF, I'd be much more worry about Kyle Schwarber's body letting him down than Joc's.

 

I understand your point from just a 'look at him' perspective, but outside of a pretty freak accident where he then proceeded to exceed everyone's expectations in terms of recovery, I can't really remember a single injury he's had, and he's shown an ability(?) to alter his body to try to fit his approach.

 

Pederson seems to have been incredibly healthy in his career, so he probably still wins the comparison, but not as worried about Schwarber's health as I used to be.

I'm not really talking about injury, I'm talking about the guy who had to work his tail off in LF to just not suck at it, vs the guy who is actually good out there. Schwarber's lack of athleticism and lack of not being 23 anymore is a bigger red flag than Pederson's declining foot speed, imo.

[Brian]

looks like there's a mutual option

[Irrelevant Dude]

looks like there's a mutual option

How often do mutual options actually get exercised by both parties? It would seem to be a rare scenario where a player's performance was good enough to justify the team picking up their option, while simultaneously not good enough for the player to think he can get more in the open market.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

If you're worrying about either of these guys sucking in LF, I'd be much more worry about Kyle Schwarber's body letting him down than Joc's.

 

I understand your point from just a 'look at him' perspective, but outside of a pretty freak accident where he then proceeded to exceed everyone's expectations in terms of recovery, I can't really remember a single injury he's had, and he's shown an ability(?) to alter his body to try to fit his approach.

 

Pederson seems to have been incredibly healthy in his career, so he probably still wins the comparison, but not as worried about Schwarber's health as I used to be.

I'm not really talking about injury, I'm talking about the guy who had to work his tail off in LF to just not suck at it, vs the guy who is actually good out there. Schwarber's lack of athleticism and lack of not being 23 anymore is a bigger red flag than Pederson's declining foot speed, imo.

 

Both are on one year deals, so neither fan base needs to be too concerned about which body breaks down quicker.

[Irrelevant Dude]

There’s a mutual option for the 2022 season on the contract as well, Sherman tweets. As with many mutual options, it comes with a notable buyout, so Pederson’s actual 2021 salary will come in a ways south of that $7MM sum. (Option buyouts are always included in the “guaranteed” portion of a contract.)

 

Mutual options are typically used as accounting measures more than anything else. A player who overperforms his contract will generally decline his half of the option in favor of a return to market in search of a more lucrative deal; similarly, a player who underperforms may opt into his side of the deal, but the team will turn down its half in those settings. It’s not unprecedented for both sides to exercise a mutual option, but it is quite rare. In other words, the overwhelming likelihood is that Pederson will again be on the open market next winter.

So basically, it's just a way to backload the money that the Cubs can't afford in 2021.

[ChiCubsFan]

Schwarber’s contract is structured the same way. Looks like $7M this year. $3M buyout on the mutual option. If the option is picked up on both ends, looks like he’ll earn $11M next year (if you include the $3M on next year’s salary).

[jersey cubs fan]

 

I understand your point from just a 'look at him' perspective, but outside of a pretty freak accident where he then proceeded to exceed everyone's expectations in terms of recovery, I can't really remember a single injury he's had, and he's shown an ability(?) to alter his body to try to fit his approach.

 

Pederson seems to have been incredibly healthy in his career, so he probably still wins the comparison, but not as worried about Schwarber's health as I used to be.

I'm not really talking about injury, I'm talking about the guy who had to work his tail off in LF to just not suck at it, vs the guy who is actually good out there. Schwarber's lack of athleticism and lack of not being 23 anymore is a bigger red flag than Pederson's declining foot speed, imo.

 

Both are on one year deals, so neither fan base needs to be too concerned about which body breaks down quicker.

 

I was specifically responding to the rather weird assertion that going from Schwarber to Joc was bad because he might suck in LF next year.

[squally1313]

I'm not really talking about injury, I'm talking about the guy who had to work his tail off in LF to just not suck at it, vs the guy who is actually good out there. Schwarber's lack of athleticism and lack of not being 23 anymore is a bigger red flag than Pederson's declining foot speed, imo.

 

Both are on one year deals, so neither fan base needs to be too concerned about which body breaks down quicker.

 

I was specifically responding to the rather weird assertion that going from Schwarber to Joc was bad because he might suck in LF next year.

 

I never meant to imply that Pederson's defense was going to drag down his production any more than Schwarber's will. They have the exact same average and OBP, Schwarber gives you 10 more points of slugging. If I wanted to make an argument about defense, I'd say that whatever value Schwarber brings to left field it's tied into his arm, which I would think would stay more consistent vs speed. But I know nothing about Pederson's defense outside of his ratings.

 

My argument of 'bad', which is really more annoying, is that I don't like replacing a Cubs legend after non-tendering him to essentially end up with the exact same production with maybe a million dollars of savings.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Don't have any stats to back this up, but it seemed like all of Schwarbs outs were grounding into the shift every time. Does Joc do that all the time, too?

[UMFan83]

Don't have any stats to back this up, but it seemed like all of Schwarbs outs were grounding into the shift every time. Does Joc do that all the time, too?

 

Looking at spray charts from the last 2 seasons, it looks like Joc is even worse

[jersey cubs fan]

My argument of 'bad', which is really more annoying, is that I don't like replacing a Cubs legend after non-tendering him to essentially end up with the exact same production with maybe a million dollars of savings.

On the other hand they're moving on from the most blue lives matter guy on the team, which is cool.

 

Also, he did some cool things but his legendary status is more theoretical than real.

[imb]

Joc, stocks, and two bourbon barrels

[Tim]

My argument of 'bad', which is really more annoying, is that I don't like replacing a Cubs legend after non-tendering him to essentially end up with the exact same production with maybe a million dollars of savings.

On the other hand they're moving on from the most blue lives matter guy on the team, which is cool.

 

Also, he did some cool things but his legendary status is more theoretical than real.

Isn't he still tied as the all-time leader in post-season HR for the Cubs?

 

 

 

but, yeah, point taken.

[Bertz]

Don't have any stats to back this up, but it seemed like all of Schwarbs outs were grounding into the shift every time. Does Joc do that all the time, too?

 

Looking at spray charts from the last 2 seasons, it looks like Joc is even worse

 

Yeah, slash line wise they're going to be nearly identical. Joc strikes out less, but pops up a lot more. Joc might even be more of an extreme pull hitter. He's a better defender, but also more susceptible to LHP.

 

I'm guessing Joc does some thing(s) that Schwarber doesn't. For instance it looks like Joc is better against the high fastball

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/joc-pederson/11899/heat-maps?position=OF&ss=2019-03-28&se=2019-09-29&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=0&grid=5&view=pit&pitch=FA&season=all&data=pi

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/heat-maps?position=OF&ss=2019-03-28&se=2019-09-29&hand=all&count=all&pitch=FA&season=all&view=bat&data=&grid=5&blur=0&type=5

 

I also wouldn't be surprised if there was other stuff that's not easy to verify publicly, like that Joc's better against velocity.

[Post Count Padder]

Not sure he's better than Schwarbs but it's not bad for a one year deal. Someone had to play LF so why not a guy who isn't useless with a glove and could pop 30 homers.

[squally1313]

My argument of 'bad', which is really more annoying, is that I don't like replacing a Cubs legend after non-tendering him to essentially end up with the exact same production with maybe a million dollars of savings.

On the other hand they're moving on from the most blue lives matter guy on the team, which is cool.

 

Also, he did some cool things but his legendary status is more theoretical than real.

 

His Dad is a police chief and to the extent of my knowledge, he has a charity with events that raise money for first responders. I know there were a couple pictures with him wearing a cop hat over the last couple years, but I don't recall any dumb comments/statements. Not great, but if we're talking about the 'blue lives matter' in the way we normally talk about it around here, I would bet the biggest supporter just slotted into the Nationals rotation.

 

And yes, what he did in October/November 2015 and 2016 was extremely awesome.