NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

[NOLA]

How do you kick that FG if your the Packers? You still need a TD and you hope you get the ball back.

[Soul]

I don’t get the FG call, and I don’t get the slide down before the two minute warning either.

[d_money]

Finally a PI call against GB.

[Bertz]

[OleMissCub]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

[Soul]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

That one will live on in Packer lore forever.

[Soul]

Hard to believe. Literally picked up Brady and instant Super Bowl. That’s how good he is.

[Brian]

the only reason Aaron Rogers has been to a Super Bowl is because of the stupid Bears

 

 

what happened with both teams after this moment is classic Chicago sports

 

[CubColtPacer]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

 

I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

 

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

 

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.

[raw]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

 

No onside kick attempt either (which was the right call). But I can't believe they kicked the FG. Worst case scenario, Tampa has to get a 1st down in 3 plays from their own 8. They probably don't throw on 1st down either with Brady from his own endzone. You have to force a 3 & out to stay alive either way. The choices were 1 play chance for a TD, stop 3 plays, get the ball back around your own 40 or no chance for TD, kickoff, stop 3 plays, get the ball back around your own 20. Rodgers should have run on 3rd down anyway to at least make it closer and a bigger no-brainer decision, though.

 

Also, WTF Brady. Dude wins 6 Superbowls, after 20 years at a place that will never host a Superbowl. Leaves for 1 year and becomes the QB of the first team to ever host a Superbowl. Making history when there is barely any history left.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

That one will live on in Packer lore forever.

 

I will make sure it lives on in Packer lore. Time and time again.

[Soul]

The only thing further Brady could do is actually win the Super Bowl after doing all that previous stuff. Edited January 24, 2021 by Soul

[raw]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

 

I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

 

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

 

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.

 

I mean, they almost literally have 0 chance to win in regulation because they were down 8. So, them being down less than a TD naturally increases their chances because there was 0 chance of a tie at that point.

 

#2 is the only point I halfway buy (Brady w/ ball w/ timeouts). But when you're losing, you have to get there first. You absolutely make them try to run out the clock in the shadow of their goalline. It's not like they were at the 20. Not to mention, they could have gotten yards without a TD and made it even more tough for Tampa.

[Soul]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

 

I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

 

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

 

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.

 

I mean, they almost literally have 0 chance to win in regulation because they were down 8. So, them being down less than a TD naturally increases their chances because there was 0 chance of a tie at that point.

 

#2 is the only point I halfway buy (Brady w/ ball w/ timeouts). But when you're losing, you have to get there first. You absolutely make them try to run out the clock in the shadow of their goalline. It's not like they were at the 20. Not to mention, they could have gotten yards without a TD and made it even more tough for Tampa.

If any team should know that you don’t give the ball to a HOF QB to run the clock out, it should be the Packers.

 

There’s just no way around this being a supremely horrible call.

[d_money]

Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

That one will live on in Packer lore forever.

 

I will make sure it lives on in Packer lore. Time and time again.

+1

[abuck1220]

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

[Derwood]

That's not a great fumble, KC

[OleMissCub]

So Dawson Knox played on the same team as DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at Ole Miss

 

...and they won 5 games #-o

[Soul]

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

I just saw the highlights and I’ll bet Rodgers is wishing he ran it on the 3rd down play too. It didn’t look like the Bucs had anyone in position to stop him.

[d_money]

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

I just saw the highlights and I’ll bet Rodgers is wishing he ran it on the 3rd down play too. It didn’t look like the Bucs had anyone in position to stop him.

Agreed. I was surprised he didn’t.

[raw]

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

Analytics say going for 2 was the correct call there.

 

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[CoolHandLuke]

As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.

[CubColtPacer]

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

 

Ever since they moved the extra point distance back, going for 2 is almost never a terrible call. It's basically double the points for double the risk.

 

But you are right on the end of the game. Being down 7 makes going for it a much more obvious decision.

[raw]

As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.

 

I get this angle. I just think stopping them on a drive starting at the 8 is easier than stopping them on a drive starting at the 20-25. And consequently scoring after a punt from inside the opponents 10 is easier than scoring after a punt from the opponents 30-35.

 

And now that I think about it, I think LaFleur made that call because it was before the 2-minute warning. But if that's the case, the squib kickoff is another bad decision because if the returner didn't give himself up, the Packers would have lost that in their favor if that was part of the decision making.

[Soul]

As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.

You’ve got to remember, they were giving the ball to the GOAT with an opportunity to ice the game. This isn’t a normal calculation at all.

 

You can boil this down to a binary choice if you want to. You give the ball to your HOF QB to save the game. Or you give the ball to the other team’s HOF QB hoping he won’t ice it.