Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[ConstableRabbit]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

I donno, maybe because they disagree with the projections? Maybe because they have access to information Fangraphs doesn’t have? It’s not complicated.

[Cubswin11]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

 

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

[ConstableRabbit]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

 

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

They've also mentioned valuing contact and Arenado Ks a lot less, fwiw.

[Deeg]

He's not even arguably the most popular player on the current roster.

Who is more popular in Colorado than Arenado? Or did you read that wrong?

 

Yeah, read it wrong sorry - though that referred to Bryant.

 

That said, there’s absolutely no way Arenado is the most popular Rockie ever. Not even close.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Deeg

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:

1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward

2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash

 

I really, really dislike this reasoning. It's basically just "we know they don't make mistakes because if they do it, it's not a mistake."

[Backtobanks]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

 

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

 

We can all read the rumors and speculate, but I haven't read anything about Colorado taking on any other contracts. To tell the truth, some "rumors" have the Cubs sending along a prospect to get Arenado and cash. I haven't seen anything about them sending anywhere near the difference in salaries to keep the Cubs where they are financially or to reduce their salary obligations. I might believe it when I read something that hints of them taking on another contract to start to get us closer to (or under) the LT, but I can't see PTR going further over the LT. If Theo can move someone like Chatwood first AND Colorado throws in a ton of money, then I could see it happening.

[ConstableRabbit]

Surely the Cubs aren't so far gone that we'd trade for a slightly older, very slightly better, significantly worse contract just to say we did something.

Occam’s Razor would imply that if we think the FO is sharp, if they did do that trade either:

1. They don’t think Nolan is just slightly better moving forward

2. It’s not such a big contract after the Rockies throw in cash

 

I really, really dislike this reasoning. It's basically just "we know they don't make mistakes because if they do it, it's not a mistake."

Mistakes are one thing. You’re questioning the logic/reasoning behind it which is silly.

 

“Why would they do something I’ve clearly laid out as so stupid!”

 

Well...

[Cubswin11]

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

 

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

 

We can all read the rumors and speculate, but I haven't read anything about Colorado taking on any other contracts. To tell the truth, some "rumors" have the Cubs sending along a prospect to get Arenado and cash. I haven't seen anything about them sending anywhere near the difference in salaries to keep the Cubs where they are financially or to reduce their salary obligations. I might believe it when I read something that hints of them taking on another contract to start to get us closer to (or under) the LT, but I can't see PTR going further over the LT. If Theo can move someone like Chatwood first AND Colorado throws in a ton of money, then I could see it happening.

Throwing in cash or taking on Chatwood are the same thing to me, essentially. Seeing as it’s just 1 year for Chatwood and any money thrown in, even if it’s like $3-5 million a year for the 5+ years of Arenado, the entire total is owed in cash to the acquiring team within the year. So $25-40 mil thrown in is actually more on a cash basis than just taking Chatwood seeing as all that money is owed this year.

 

Of course we may need to send a little extra with a prospect to have them throw in money and/or take some money in a player.

Edited February 15, 2020 by Cubswin11

[soccer10k]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

 

They're pretty certain Bryant is leaving in FA in two years and either don't want to trade him for prospects or they think this is the best deal they'll get for him? Obviously we don't know the answers to any of these questions.

[Backtobanks]

Because they may project Arenado more favorably moving forward, he’s controlled longer (I’m operating off the assumption if he’s traded he’s waiving his opt out rights as articles have mentioned), Arenado has been healthier and better more recently, projects to be able to stay at 3B longer, the Rockies are willing to pay down the deal and you’re getting Arenado at a discount, if we can throw Chatwood in him and Bryant are close to equaling out Arenado’s salary this year, maybe they like Arenado’s personality a bit to shake horsefeathers up like they’ve mentioned wanting, etc. You can still get under the LT this year acquiring Arenado and there’s still plenty of money to spend next offseason with him added.

 

I’d rather move Bryant for around an equally as good player, who’s controlled longer than for a prospect poo poo platter/pitchers who probably die.

 

We can all read the rumors and speculate, but I haven't read anything about Colorado taking on any other contracts. To tell the truth, some "rumors" have the Cubs sending along a prospect to get Arenado and cash. I haven't seen anything about them sending anywhere near the difference in salaries to keep the Cubs where they are financially or to reduce their salary obligations. I might believe it when I read something that hints of them taking on another contract to start to get us closer to (or under) the LT, but I can't see PTR going further over the LT. If Theo can move someone like Chatwood first AND Colorado throws in a ton of money, then I could see it happening.

Throwing in cash or taking on Chatwood are the same thing to me, essentially. Seeing as it’s just 1 year for Chatwood and any money thrown in, even if it’s like $3-5 million a year for the 5+ years of Arenado, the entire total is owed in cash to the acquiring team within the year. So $25-40 mil thrown in is actually more on a cash basis than just taking Chatwood seeing as all that money is owed this year.

 

Of course we may need to send a little extra with a prospect to have them throw in money and/or take some money in a player.

 

I don't see how $3-$5 million per year even begins to making a dent in his $35 million per year contract when you have basically the same player for $16 million less this year and probably $10 million less next year. Assuming Bryant opts for FA in 2 years, he probably would have trouble matching the $160 million over 5 years that would still be owed to Arenado and that's not counting the $26 million we would save for the two years we kept Bryant. All of that also doesn't figure in the fact that Arenado is almost two years older than Bryant.

[Backtobanks]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

 

They're pretty certain Bryant is leaving in FA in two years and either don't want to trade him for prospects or they think this is the best deal they'll get for him? Obviously we don't know the answers to any of these questions.

 

I get not being sure about prospects, but Arenado is already making ridiculous FA money for the next 7 years. If Bryant leaves, the Cubs probably can attract a really good FA for the $35 million per year that Arenado is making.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The projections systems for next year have them as pretty close players, FWIW.

 

 

Bryant:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .273/.377/.508, 12%BB, 22%K, .371 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 4.8 WAR

ZIPS: .271/.369/.506 4.5 WAR

 

Arenado:

Steamer/Depth Charts: .296/.371/.571 10%BB, 16%k, .381 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 5 WAR

ZIPS: .298/.367/.567 4.5 WAR.

 

So again, why should the Cubs make this deal?

Because they arent confident in Bryant's desire to sign beyond 2021 and if they can get NA's opt-out waived then they will be in a stronger future position

[UMFan83]

 

 

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

God I hate seeing our RotY/MVP/WS champion talk about being/not being traded

[Cubswin11]

That whole press conference was awesome.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Because they arent confident in Bryant's desire to sign beyond 2021 and if they can get NA's opt-out waived then they will be in a stronger future position

 

Being locked into a player for FA-level money for their decline phase is not a stronger position. The whole point of signing guys to those deals is that you get surplus value in the early years, knowing that you'll probably eat it in the later years. You don't just want the later years when you don't have to take them.

[Sammy Sofa]

God I hate seeing our RotY/MVP/WS champion talk about being/not being traded

 

It's going to get worse too. Like if this offseason is an example of how Cubs fans see the players, imagine how we'll value the stars of The Future who aren't WS curse breaking former Golden Spikes turned #2 overall picks turned MiL POYS turned ML RoYs turned league MVPs...The Ricketts and the other owners got what they needed out of the offseason just between the Betts/Price deal and the feedback from fans on how Kris Bryant is valued, and all it took to hide was a handful of deals that may never get matched to a handful players...The one positive is that the Cubs might get Lindor for a shiny bag of balls, but at what true cost on our humanity?!?!

 

Turns out fans can tolerate prolonged and intentional losing, being known as Lovable Losers, the luxury tax as a cap, taxpayer dollars getting stolen for stadiums, capped amateur spending, automation for the sake more efficient sports entertainment, etc...but the possibility of tying up cap space on a super accomplished nice guy superstar drafted by the org with all the player features and tricks except switch hitting was a tipping point...Savage times

 

Wait, wait, wait...

 

What? Your worry is how the FANS value players as opposed to how the owners and the FO values them?

[Sammy Sofa]

Wait, wait, wait...

 

What? Your worry is how the FANS value players as opposed to how the owners and the FO values them?

 

What's our role then? Just innocent viewers who happen to increasingly be funding this stuff? If the owners have a massive essentially endless supply of players and their customers most value payroll efficiency, $/WAR, and The Future...Where's it supposed to go?

 

The fans are not driving these sorts of moves at all. That's a ridiculous idea.

[Bull]

Every time I see a new post in this thread I think there’s been a trade. /s

[Bear Cub]

Who knows if KB will be dealt, but he is one classy young man and a stud player too.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Every time I see a new post in this thread I think there’s been a trade. /s

 

Really? I just assume it's people responding to the voices in Tom's head.

[Post Count Padder]

The Cubs and Padres discussed various scenarios involving third baseman Kris Bryant but were (obviously) unable to come to an agreement, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Specifically, the Cubs showed interest in right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Catching prospect Luis Campusano was also a potential target.

[imb]

The Cubs and Padres discussed various scenarios involving third baseman Kris Bryant but were (obviously) unable to come to an agreement, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Specifically, the Cubs showed interest in right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Catching prospect Luis Campusano was also a potential target.

 

i would have cut my wrist on fb live

[David]

there's no way in hell dinelson lamet was a primary piece of interest in a KB deal

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you told me the Cubs were talking about Limet and Campusano I would've said 'that's a little less than I'd hope to get for Contreras'. Would have been unimaginably dumb for Bryant.