Potential Kris Bryant trade thread

[jersey cubs fan]

Aren't we kinda running out of time to find a Q replacement? Especially after we basically decided to pass on filling Hamels' spot in the first place? Or are we just going to hope Hendricks and Yu throw up career seasons while Lester, Chatwood, and Mills do...whatever it is they do.

You only need a Q replacement if you require competent pitching. If you're basically taking a mini dive this season by unnecessarily cutting costs, some garbage guys filling in at that spot is just going to help your draft spot.

[Brian]

Yeah if you're trading Q to get under the luxury tax you're not filling it with someone you're going to sign from outside, there's Adbert or Mills that can take the spot

[Bertz]

Braves, Phillies, Nats, Padres and probably a “mystery” team (Yankees, Rays, Angels?) still all make some sense for Bryant. I’m at the point where I’m fine running it back and hoping for some better luck. If they have to get under the LT attach a prospect to Chatwood and be done with it.

 

The only KB trade I’m really in favor of up at this point is one that ends up with us getting Arenado (whether that’s a direct trade, 3 team trade or two separate trades).

 

I think the Phillies are the team that makes the most sense currently. They have the biggest hole at 3B by far for a contending team, they're in that extremely tight NL East, and they have enough money coming off of next year's books that they can make going over the LT a one year deal even if they extend Realmuto. If they finish 4th this year I can't imagine the GM keeps his job, and job insecurity is how deals get done.

 

That being said at this point I expect KB to stay and Quintana to go.

 

I am curious about how the Arenado situation evolves. If he makes it through the season as a Rockie, next winter a Bryant/Arenado switcheroo seems a lot more plausible, when KB will be making ~$25M and the financials are less complicated.

Yeah I agree, I think the Phillies need him the most. Bohm, Howard, 1 of Velasquez or Pivetta and another prospect or two would be roughly what I’d expect with maybe Segura being involved too. An Arenado trade could make more sense next offseason but I don’t think Bryant would be involved at that point for the Rockies with 1 year left. We’d also have to be assured Arenado isn’t opting out too. A 3 team trade right now where KB goes to Philly, Arenado comes to us + a little extra stuff and Bohm and stuff goes to the Rockies makes some sense.

 

Yeah I don't think KB would necessarily go back to COL in a deal next winter. Even this winter it sounds like the idea was that the Rockies would flip him by the deadline. I think it would be two related but separate deals, like the Joc Pederson stuff last night.

[squally1313]

Aren't we kinda running out of time to find a Q replacement? Especially after we basically decided to pass on filling Hamels' spot in the first place? Or are we just going to hope Hendricks and Yu throw up career seasons while Lester, Chatwood, and Mills do...whatever it is they do.

You only need a Q replacement if you require competent pitching. If you're basically taking a mini dive this season by unnecessarily cutting costs, some garbage guys filling in at that spot is just going to help your draft spot.

 

Fair. Depressing, but fair. Now that the dust mostly has settled, I wonder if Ricketts is a little disappointed that Milwaukee got worse and St Louis didn't really do anything. The Reds made a bunch of moves, but had a ton of ground to make up. It's one thing to have a roster that needs things to break right and choose not to compete, it's another thing to go into the year with the best team on paper (at least, as currently constructed).

[Cubswin11]

Aren't we kinda running out of time to find a Q replacement? Especially after we basically decided to pass on filling Hamels' spot in the first place? Or are we just going to hope Hendricks and Yu throw up career seasons while Lester, Chatwood, and Mills do...whatever it is they do.

You only need a Q replacement if you require competent pitching. If you're basically taking a mini dive this season by unnecessarily cutting costs, some garbage guys filling in at that spot is just going to help your draft spot.

 

Fair. Depressing, but fair. Now that the dust mostly has settled, I wonder if Ricketts is a little disappointed that Milwaukee got worse and St Louis didn't really do anything. The Reds made a bunch of moves, but had a ton of ground to make up. It's one thing to have a roster that needs things to break right and choose not to compete, it's another thing to go into the year with the best team on paper (at least, as currently constructed).

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricketts has no idea what teams in the division have or haven’t done and what it means to their ability to be competitive or not.

[CubinNY]

You only need a Q replacement if you require competent pitching. If you're basically taking a mini dive this season by unnecessarily cutting costs, some garbage guys filling in at that spot is just going to help your draft spot.

 

Fair. Depressing, but fair. Now that the dust mostly has settled, I wonder if Ricketts is a little disappointed that Milwaukee got worse and St Louis didn't really do anything. The Reds made a bunch of moves, but had a ton of ground to make up. It's one thing to have a roster that needs things to break right and choose not to compete, it's another thing to go into the year with the best team on paper (at least, as currently constructed).

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ricketts has no idea what teams in the division have or haven’t done and what it means to their ability to be competitive or not.

I think that's pretty obviously the case.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

1) Good.

 

2) THEN WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN DOING ALL WINTER

 

Just the dumbest possible timeline in every way.

[squally1313]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

1) Good.

 

2) THEN WHAT HAVE YOU BEEN DOING ALL WINTER

 

Just the dumbest possible timeline in every way.

 

Theo finally found out about the deleted alternate ending of Major League and decided to go ALL IN on that strategy.

[Sammy Sofa]

Very diplomatic of Theo for not calling them out on making things up. I guess the thinking is everyone's got to work, sites and pages need to get clicks, etc etc....It was fun to see how quickly they ran out of steam

 

Man, your headspace is fascinating.

[Tryptamine]

Worst case scenario for me. You don't maximize Bryant, Contreras, etc trade value , instead pretending that an 84 win team that has only gotten worse is a WS contender. Either add to the team or capitalize on your asset's value, don't run out mediocrity hoping that various things break right.

[Tim]

Worst case scenario for me. You don't maximize Bryant, Contreras, etc trade value , instead pretending that an 84 win team that has only gotten worse is a WS contender. Either add to the team or capitalize on your asset's value, don't run out mediocrity hoping that various things break right.

They weren't a true talent 84 win team last year.

 

everything else I agree with.

[Tryptamine]

Is playing a bunch of 26-28 YO All Stars and MVP candidates really not a way for the Cubs to capitalize on the value of their assets though? Like it seemed all off-season there was a gap between their value on the field v a trade and the winner wasn't their trade value. Since most are under control for at least another season the Cubs didn't miss any window to trade these guys

 

I'd prefer to avoid a Machado situation where the Orioles got mostly nothing because they wasted too much of his control.

[Tim]

I'd prefer to avoid a Machado situation where the Orioles got mostly nothing because they wasted too much of his control.

 

The Cubs can trade any of Baez, Bryant, Contreras, and Schwarber at the trade deadline with at least full season of powerful control than Baltimore had when trading Machado...Contreras would still have two and a half years at the deadline

We're not going to trade any of them when we have a five game lead in the division, though. That's right, we're rocking with this team in 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(side note: I'm sitting in a brewery in Grand Rapids right now)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/02/13/cubs-reportedly-are-absolutely-motivated-to-try-to-acquire-nolan-arenado/

 

I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'

[champaignchris]

So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/02/13/cubs-reportedly-are-absolutely-motivated-to-try-to-acquire-nolan-arenado/

 

I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'

 

I see the Rockies’ motivation to move Arenado for Bryant. I don’t see the Cubs’ motivation.

 

With Arenado’s player options, it’s the same two years guaranteed as Bryant at basically twice the salary for a marginally better player, with the risk that he underperforms and puts the Cubs on the hook for $30+MM a year for five more years of a declining player.

 

Would the Rockies be taking Heyward, sending prospects to the Cubs, what?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So apparently the 'hope the Rockies get brain poisoning' plan for the offseason is still alive? https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/02/13/cubs-reportedly-are-absolutely-motivated-to-try-to-acquire-nolan-arenado/

 

I was on the phone with somebody in Colorado last night who covers the Rockies, and he said to me, ‘Hey dude, let me just tell you, these discussions are real. Nolan Arenado … absolutely wants out of the Colorado Rockies organization, and he’s made it clear to ownership. I don’t want to be here. Get me outta here.’ He said, ‘I’m telling you, the Cubs are absolutely motivated to try to get him. Absolutely, 100%.'

 

I see the Rockies’ motivation to move Arenado for Bryant. I don’t see the Cubs’ motivation.

 

With Arenado’s player options, it’s the same two years guaranteed as Bryant at basically twice the salary for a marginally better player, with the risk that he underperforms and puts the Cubs on the hook for $30+MM a year for five more years of a declining player.

 

Would the Rockies be taking Heyward, sending prospects to the Cubs, what?

 

It could be where they get him to waive the opt out for the concession of getting the hell out of a place he doesn't want to be, and there also is at least a chance the Cubs wouldn't be on the hook for $30 plus depending on how much the Rockies kicked in.

 

At least it's some motivation.

[Bertz]

On the Cubs end I think it really depends on the finances. The team already as it stands needs to cut ~$5M to safely get under the luxury tax. Arenado makes $14M more than Kris, so let's call it an even $20M? That is really hard to do at this juncture, for instance dumping Chatwood and Descalso is only $15M, so the Rockies would need to throw in money on top of that.

 

If the mandate from ownership is more flexible, where this season or next are options, it's a lot easier to see. The FO would need to be fairly creative in patching the back of the rotation, but it wouldn't have to be as ridiculously austere as this offseason has been.

[Brian]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

[Bertz]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

 

I'd buy that.

 

I also really wonder at what point the team closes up shop on a Bryant deal and makes their backup move. I can't imagine they go into the season slightly over the tax, so they've got to at some point. Theo said something during the presser about being close to turning the page, so this weekend when position players report?

[Brian]

for better or worse I think Plan A right now is go to war with what they got. If things go bad they can sell off and get under, if things are going well go for it and worry about the CBT next year.

[jersey cubs fan]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

I believe it was never directly stated to be under the tax, but it was stated they'd have a hard budget that the tax would obviously eat into. So they can either be under this year or next.

 

If you can get Bryant and Arenado on the same team this year and go for broke, do it then you find a way to chisel away at that budget next year. Bottom line is it's going to happen this year or next.

[KingCubsFan]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

 

Agree with most of this, although it’s not the tax itself that’s necessarily driving the decision. It’s the lost revenue as a result of being in the LT penalty box that is much more painful. Brett at Bleachernation has the best write up on it. The best writers can’t seem to figure it out.

[d_money]

If we're believing in what Kap says, there is not an actual directive to be under the luxury tax.

 

It actually makes sense with a quote Ricketts gave at a blogger q&a last offseason, not going to dig it up but basically it was he doesn't care about the tax - baseball will get a budget of XXX million dollars and it is up Theo and company to spend it.

 

Last off season they were up against that number with paying the tax so they couldn't do anything.

 

Now looking at the next two seasons they see that in one of them they need to get under so as not to eat up way to much of 2021 funds in tax

 

Do I think Ricketts should look at the tax as a separate thing and just pay it separate from baseball budget, yes. But given all that we know I think the above scenario is probably mostly true.

 

Agree with most of this, although it’s not the tax itself that’s necessarily driving the decision. It’s the lost revenue as a result of being in the LT penalty box that is much more painful. Brett at Bleachernation has the best write up on it. The best writers can’t seem to figure it out.

The loss of draft picks in the 3rd year of being over occurs as well, I believe. If true - that’s a significant factor.

[Banedon]

Bryant for Arenado still has legs.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-are-absolutely-motivated-acquire-nolan-arenado-rockies

[David]

Bryant for Arenado still has legs.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-are-absolutely-motivated-acquire-nolan-arenado-rockies

 

you don't say?