Michael Conforto Is A Flawed Hitters, and the Cubs Couldn't Care Less

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The version of Michael Conforto who used to destroy fastballs has been back this year, and that is very good news for the Chicago Cubs heading into the postseason.

Conforto hit just .224 with a .382 slugging percentage against fastballs with the Dodgers last year. His power was still there, with 12 doubles and eight home runs, but the loss of contact limited his impact. He fell well short of his 2024 campaign, when he hit 35 extra-base hits—15 of them home runs—and finished with a .547 slugging percentage, just one point below his .546 xSLG. This year, his best adjustments against fastballs have come from expanding his swing, hitting pitches better in the upper and lower thirds around the strike zone.

The two graphics on the left show Conforto’s impact this season against right-handed pitchers’ fastballs, while the ones on the right correspond to last year. Most of the areas where his average exit velocity has increased have also seen an improvement in his slugging percentage.

Pitchers challenged Conforto last year by throwing him fastballs 55.9% of the time, but with these adjustments, they are now relying more on breaking pitches and off-speed pitches. Changeups have once again become the biggest problem: he is hitting just .122 against them, the worst mark of his career. But that is not the only concerning decline for Conforto, as his 40.8% whiff rate is also a career worst, and much of that breakdown has contributed to his strikeout rate jumping from 25.0% in 2025 to 38.5% this year.

Take a look at his whiff rate zone chart, and it becomes clear where Conforto is struggling.

I think we have reached a much more revealing point. As you can see, Conforto hardly struggles in the strike zone. The problems appear when he tries to reach pitches that are in the lower parts and corners. In many of those same areas, he has destroyed fastballs, but he has not been able to do the same against changeups. Although his flawed swing rate has dropped from 17% to 13% against changeups, Conforto’s perfect contact rate has fallen from 19% to 10%.

Of course, much of this problem could be solved if Conforto stopped chasing the large number of pitches outside the strike zone that are limiting him, but that is a challenge he has not been able to solve throughout his career.

Aggressiveness is his essence in the batter’s box. In fact, this season, Conforto is posting the highest swing rate on pitches outside the zone of his career (27.6%), along with his lowest contact rate (50.3%). So, amidst all his problems at the plate, the fact that his swing is regaining its impact against fastballs and showing some heat against breaking pitches is as good as it sounds. Consider that he also leads the league in home runs (four) and has a 1.265 OPS as a pinch hitter in 34 plate appearances, and it's clear that Conforto is more than filling the duties of his role on this Cubs team. It's just a question of if he can clean up (or mask) his fatal flaw before the playoffs, lest he get picked on by the best pitchers in baseball.