2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[jersey cubs fan]

It's been discussed. The problem is you don't save that much money and are practically forced to go out and pay for similar pitching at similar cost somewhere else

[Cubswin11]

[Tryptamine]

Another cheap starter option off the board.

[UMFan83]

 

The source that this "report" was taken from was Sharma of the Athletic, but this link summarizes it.

[Cubswin11]

 

The source that this "report" was taken from was Sharma of the Athletic, but this link summarizes it.

I’m kinda happy there’s no money there if we’d just use it on Castellanos. Seems like it would really be forcing things to bring him back at the rumored dollars he wants in the 5/90 range. Maybe we’ll get lucky and it will be a 2016 Dexter, 2019 Moustaskas situation and we get him late in FA for 1 year.

 

The article basically says what we’ve heard. Gotta make a trade to clear money and Schwarber likely has to go because they don’t want a Schwarbs/Heyward/Nick OF full time. Which using resources to find a deal to clear money and a Schwarbs trade just to turn around and give Nicks 5/90 seems like a waste of time and energy for a sequence of moves that doesn’t make us better and adds a long term money commitment.

[Cubswin11]

I still see Steven Souza being a worthwhile gamble instead of jumping through hoops to get Nick. There’s risk coming off the knee injury but if you assume he’s healthy (he’s working out fully he claims) he had a better year than Castellanos ever had the last time he played a full season and handles lefties fine and fits the RHH OF add plus also has rated out well defensively. He also likely only costs a couple million for 1 year.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I still see Steven Souza being a worthwhile gamble instead of jumping through hoops to get Nick. There’s risk coming off the knee injury but if you assume he’s healthy (he’s working out fully he claims) he had a better year than Castellanos ever had the last time he played a full season and handles lefties fine and fits the RHH OF add plus also has rated out well defensively. He also likely only costs a couple million for 1 year.

 

only in terms of hr's, and only by 3, and perhaps defensively. But he isn't an improvement over Nick unless he's drastically cheaper

[Cubswin11]

I still see Steven Souza being a worthwhile gamble instead of jumping through hoops to get Nick. There’s risk coming off the knee injury but if you assume he’s healthy (he’s working out fully he claims) he had a better year than Castellanos ever had the last time he played a full season and handles lefties fine and fits the RHH OF add plus also has rated out well defensively. He also likely only costs a couple million for 1 year.

 

only in terms of hr's, and only by 3, and perhaps defensively. But he isn't an improvement over Nick unless he's drastically cheaper

He was worth 3.8 WAR in 2017, Nick has never topped 3.0. And yes he will be drastically cheaper, that’s the appeal, and probably at least not all that much worse (if healthy). Especially since Nick is probably somewhere between a 1.5-2.5 win player most years moving forward and probably capped at 3.5 or so.

[Cubswin11]

Maybe it’s true, but hear me out, maybe Jesse is speculating his ass off again and trying to amplify a narrative (we obviously know they’re claiming they’re strapped for money but maybe not this much) and they decided to simply pass on Eric horsefeathering Sogard once his price got to $4.5 million since there’s plenty of MIF/contacty options still out there and Sogard has plenty of red flags like a 14 wRC+ in 2018.

 

[Bertz]

I'm sure the team looked at Sogard, he's exactly in the mold of what they're looking at for 2B. But there's still half a dozen comparable 2B options out there (and that's just left handed hitters).

 

2B is not going to be resolved until the trades are figured out, and maybe not even until arb numbers are finalized. Honestly Shogo is the only FA I think has a chance to sign this month, and that's because there aren't other compsrable CFers out there.

[CubsWin]

You're misreading what I wrote. I never accused anyone of thinking Theo was an idiot. I don't think anyone here thinks Theo and Jed are idiots. I simply pointed out that it seems clear to all of us that Theo and company are open to trading Bryant if not actively seeking it. At the same time, the prevailing opinion in this thread is that there is no imaginable reason to make such a move. It's unfathomable why the Cubs would trade KB. And yet, Theo and Jed are still looking into it. They must see a reason. I simply asked if the Cubs "front office was filled with idiots" with the obvious answer being "no". So if those guys see a benefit to trading him then those of us who think it is completely unfathomable haven't considered all the options and are suffering from a lack of imagination. Go back and read it again, if you don't believe me.

 

I appreciate the rest of your response, cutting it here so this page doesn't go on forever. Looking forward to seeing your KB trade ideas, because like people have been saying, I've yet to see one that I think makes the team better and gives them a better chance to make the playoffs.

My idea doesn't do that for 2020. I don't believe that's the goal. This is about setting the team up in a better position for 2021 and beyond, and it's apparent necessity is brought about by the fact that the rotation will have only Darvish and Hendricks under contract after this season. This is about acquiring good young pitching as the alternative is signing more expensive vets to fill those upcoming spots. Two problems with that. The available FA pitchers next off season aren't great and you'll be paying a lot of money for more arms in their 30s. None of this would be necessary if the Cubs had produced 3-4 viable starting pitching prospects by this point in time, but they haven't. So here we are.

 

In terms of the above, obviously all these rumors are coming from somewhere. They aren't just bored down there, looking for something to do. I just don't believe that these rumors and potential reasons are coming strictly from a desire to improve the talent of the baseball team. I look at the organization openly talking about 'banking money' during years of poor performance, and very clearly creating this offensive core of players that would, due to the nature of player control, remain relatively underpaid relative to their performance and allow them to supplement that core with more expensive, established players, pitchers in particular (to mixed results). There's no way they conceived of this plan without realizing that eventually that sweet player control would run out, and those core players would be able to hit arbitration and eventually the open market, mostly at the same time.

 

But we aren't at that point yet. If the plan was to leverage the team control and then bail as soon as there started to be a threat of these guys making serious money, well...that's a little depressing. Two years of Kris Bryant on this team, to me, is much more valuable than taking five years of control of Player X, adding up all those WARs, and claiming victory because they add up to more than what KB will most likely produce in 2020 and 2021. You want to talk me into a stud for stud deal, where we could get away from Boras and potential hard feelings for service time manipulation and commit to a long term deal? Let's have that discussion. But trading Kris Bryant for Max Fried doesn't come close to guaranteeing success down the road, and pretty clearly makes us worse next year, a year where we know we're going to be competitive and the value of every win is incredibly high. That's a clear downgrade in the near term, and the chance he turns into some 4-5 win player in 2022 in front of a roster that will either be super old or have a ton of other turnover required...what does that do for you? I don't mean to totally write off anything after 2021, but I don't really see a lot of reason for optimism at this point. Give me two more shots at October with this core, led by Bryant, and figure it out after that.

And that's certainly a valid way forward. But so is extending the window while hurting (not destroying) your chances in 2020. That's what I will lay out in this incredibly long post I've been compiling. It's stupid long. I apologize in advance. I'll also supply cliff's notes at the top of the post...

[CubsWin]

You're misreading what I wrote. I never accused anyone of thinking Theo was an idiot. I don't think anyone here thinks Theo and Jed are idiots. I simply pointed out that it seems clear to all of us that Theo and company are open to trading Bryant if not actively seeking it. At the same time, the prevailing opinion in this thread is that there is no imaginable reason to make such a move. It's unfathomable why the Cubs would trade KB. And yet, Theo and Jed are still looking into it. They must see a reason. I simply asked if the Cubs "front office was filled with idiots" with the obvious answer being "no". So if those guys see a benefit to trading him then those of us who think it is completely unfathomable haven't considered all the options and are suffering from a lack of imagination. Go back and read it again, if you don't believe me.

 

I appreciate the rest of your response, cutting it here so this page doesn't go on forever. Looking forward to seeing your KB trade ideas, because like people have been saying, I've yet to see one that I think makes the team better and gives them a better chance to make the playoffs.

 

He doesn't have to do that, only accuse everyone else of thinking they are smarter than Theo and also sucking each others dicks because we cannot think for ourselves.

Lol. You're not defensive at all, are you...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Still don't get how a trade expected to be bad for 2020 will magically become good in 2021. Especially if it's a growth and development thing then the realistic scenario card is out

 

Not to mention wasting Quintana and Lester's last year, and one of few remaining years for Rizzo, Schwarber, maybe Contreras. Darvish and Kimbrel will be worse in 2021 than 2020 too.

[CubsWin]

No mine are actually realistic and take in to account the big picture of where the entire roster and payroll are headed in the next year or two. I don't look at a Bryant trade (or any other trade) in a vacuum because it doesn't exist in a vacuum. In fact, for me, the main reason to trade Bryant, if you do, is to address what is going to happen to the Cubs rotation after next season. And the main reason to trade Contreras, if you do, is to address CF and the hole left if you trade Bryant. It has nothing to do with getting a better player than Bryant in a trade involving him. That's simply highly unlikely to happen. He's going to be the best player in the deal. All of this could've been avoided had the Cubs produced more quality, in-house starting pitching prospects. But they didn't and now they are left dealing with that situation.

Oh. You are realistic and no one else is.

 

But to get serious, why do you take it as a given that trading Bryant is the best/only way to keep the pitching from being bad? And also, why not just let the pitching suck and keep Bryant? Why is keeping that pitching at an arbitrary level of current performance needed, and at the expense of trading away our (probably) best position player? This can all be avoided by not doing any of it.

No, if you read what I wrote, I'm saying that some others in this thread are lacking in imagination, not that they haven't been realistic. The straw man trade ideas they've put forth have been unrealistic (like Bryant for Trout or whatever), but the complete inability to conceive of a possible trade that hurts their chances in 2020 but sets them up much better in 2021 and beyond is simply a lack of imagination. It's very realistic to say that you can't improve this team for 2020 by trading Bryant. I agree strongly with that statement. And if that's what a lot of posters have been saying (but just leaving out specifying 2020 only) then this was all a misunderstanding.

 

I also don't say trading Bryant is the only way to keep the pitching from being bad or that the Cubs pitching will suck going forward, but to address your hypothetical, how many teams get to/go deep into the playoffs with a great line-up but sucky pitching? That doesn't sound like a plan that will get the Cubs to the desired result to me. Does it to you?

 

I doubt you'll want to read my ridiculously long post that's coming (I'm moving at the end of the month so I've had small bits of time to write lately. But it's coming if you're really interested.

 

(As an aside, yo, peeps, stop with the knee-jerk reactions to anyone who says something different than you and read dudes, sheesh...)

[squally1313]

It'd be one thing if the rest of this roster was still 2016 Cub good, and we could ship KB off for prospects and a 12th vacation home for Ricketts and have the only impact be that we're now projected to win the division by 12 games instead of 15. But we're not really at that point right now. Trading KB does serious damage to what is a good chance to make the playoffs in 2020 and probably 2021. Whatever it may do to future rosters is much, much more hypothetical, and to me, much less important.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Still don't get how a trade expected to be bad for 2020 will magically become good in 2021. Especially if it's a growth and development thing then the realistic scenario card is out

 

Not to mention wasting Quintana and Lester's last year, and one of few remaining years for Rizzo, Schwarber, maybe Contreras. Darvish and Kimbrel will be worse in 2021 than 2020 too.

 

Wondering, should Lester be part of this? I don't think we are wasting anything with him at this point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Still don't get how a trade expected to be bad for 2020 will magically become good in 2021. Especially if it's a growth and development thing then the realistic scenario card is out

 

Not to mention wasting Quintana and Lester's last year, and one of few remaining years for Rizzo, Schwarber, maybe Contreras. Darvish and Kimbrel will be worse in 2021 than 2020 too.

 

Wondering, should Lester be part of this? I don't think we are wasting anything with him at this point.

 

Lester isn't close to surplus value at this point so it's not a crime that he's about to hit free agency, but it just further underscores the work to be done to stay/exceed the current team's level in the coming years.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

No mine are actually realistic and take in to account the big picture of where the entire roster and payroll are headed in the next year or two. I don't look at a Bryant trade (or any other trade) in a vacuum because it doesn't exist in a vacuum. In fact, for me, the main reason to trade Bryant, if you do, is to address what is going to happen to the Cubs rotation after next season. And the main reason to trade Contreras, if you do, is to address CF and the hole left if you trade Bryant. It has nothing to do with getting a better player than Bryant in a trade involving him. That's simply highly unlikely to happen. He's going to be the best player in the deal. All of this could've been avoided had the Cubs produced more quality, in-house starting pitching prospects. But they didn't and now they are left dealing with that situation.

Oh. You are realistic and no one else is.

 

But to get serious, why do you take it as a given that trading Bryant is the best/only way to keep the pitching from being bad? And also, why not just let the pitching suck and keep Bryant? Why is keeping that pitching at an arbitrary level of current performance needed, and at the expense of trading away our (probably) best position player? This can all be avoided by not doing any of it.

No, if you read what I wrote, I'm saying that some others in this thread are lacking in imagination, not that they haven't been realistic. The straw man trade ideas they've put forth have been unrealistic (like Bryant for Trout or whatever), but the complete inability to conceive of a possible trade that hurts their chances in 2020 but sets them up much better in 2021 and beyond is simply a lack of imagination. It's very realistic to say that you can't improve this team for 2020 by trading Bryant. I agree strongly with that statement. And if that's what a lot of posters have been saying (but just leaving out specifying 2020 only) then this was all a misunderstanding.

 

I also don't say trading Bryant is the only way to keep the pitching from being bad or that the Cubs pitching will suck going forward, but to address your hypothetical, how many teams get to/go deep into the playoffs with a great line-up but sucky pitching? That doesn't sound like a plan that will get the Cubs to the desired result to me. Does it to you?

 

I doubt you'll want to read my ridiculously long post that's coming (I'm moving at the end of the month so I've had small bits of time to write lately. But it's coming if you're really interested.

 

(As an aside, yo, peeps, stop with the knee-jerk reactions to anyone who says something different than you and read dudes, sheesh...)

In general, if you don't like knee-jerk reactions, then this place prob isn't your jam. I think most of us read, however...or am I giving a knee-jerk reaction to the implication that we aren't reading your posts?

 

The teams that get into/go deep in the playoffs are the ones that are good at winning baseball games. You can be good at winning baseball games with so-so pitching if you mash the ball, and vice versa. We all know this. I don't see why the Cubs of 2020, or even the Cubs of 2024, should be interested in trading position players for pitchers for the sake of it.

[CubsWin]

In general, if you don't like knee-jerk reactions, then this place prob isn't your jam. I think most of us read, however...or am I giving a knee-jerk reaction to the implication that we aren't reading your posts?

Lol. It's all good. I've been here since the beginning. Just spend most of my time hanging in the minor league forum.

 

The teams that get into/go deep in the playoffs are the ones that are good at winning baseball games. You can be good at winning baseball games with so-so pitching if you mash the ball, and vice versa. We all know this. I don't see why the Cubs of 2020, or even the Cubs of 2024, should be interested in trading position players for pitchers for the sake of it.

Oh, I agree with that. You just wrote "sucky pitching". Average pitching? Sure. Sucky or bad pitching? You might luck your way into the playoffs with a great offense, but it's gonna be tough to seriously make a run at advancing.

[Regular Show]

 

I appreciate the rest of your response, cutting it here so this page doesn't go on forever. Looking forward to seeing your KB trade ideas, because like people have been saying, I've yet to see one that I think makes the team better and gives them a better chance to make the playoffs.

 

He doesn't have to do that, only accuse everyone else of thinking they are smarter than Theo and also sucking each others dicks because we cannot think for ourselves.

Lol. You're not defensive at all, are you...

 

I just want to point out that during this debate over whether to trade KB we've kept things civil (for the most part) and that's a good thing. I don't agree with CubinNY and greatly dislike his response here. CubsWin should be allowed to explain himself without getting attacked like that.

 

Also, the Mods need to step in when situations like this happen (you know what I'm talking about).

[CubsWin]

 

He doesn't have to do that, only accuse everyone else of thinking they are smarter than Theo and also sucking each others dicks because we cannot think for ourselves.

Lol. You're not defensive at all, are you...

 

I just want to point out that during this debate over whether to trade KB we've kept things civil (for the most part) and that's a good thing. I don't agree with CubinNY and greatly dislike his response here. CubsWin should be allowed to explain himself without getting attacked like that.

 

Also, the Mods need to step in when situations like this happen (you know what I'm talking about).

Thanks, Reg. I appreciate that.

[CubsWin]

In response to posters saying there’s no conceivable reason to trade Kris Bryant, I wrote that they were lacking imagination, and that I see some possibilities. I was asked to “show my work”, so here goes. Have at it. Tear it apart.

 

This post is really, really long, so here are the Cliff’s Notes:

 

The Cubs have a pitching apocalypse coming after this season. The rotation is either going to get more expensive and have 4-5 guys in their 30s (for years to come) while the Cubs keep the band together for 2 more seasons.

 

Or they’re going to trade Bryant for young arms, trade Contreras and Bote (while signing a FA 2B like Brock Holt) for a 3B replacement and a good CF prospect, and have a group of good, young, controllable arms behind Darvish and Hendricks while saving enough money to sign Betts or Springer next off season.

 

Possible specific deals:

 

Trade Contreras and Bote to the Angels for 3B David Fletcher and CF Brandon Marsh

 

Trade Bryant to the Braves for good, young, controllable pitching (something along the lines of Sean Newcomb, Ian Anderson and Bryce Wilson). The specific names don’t matter. The Braves have so many options, you can build a trade however you like.

 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Okay, so here's the problem. After this season, the Cubs will have only Darvish and Hendricks under contract in their rotation. They have guys like Alec Mills or Colin Rea and prospects like Brailyn Marquez, Adbert Alzolay and Cory Abbott, but, obviously it would be foolish not to add significantly to that list. They will have Lester, Quintana and Chatwood's money coming off the books, so maybe they can afford to go out and buy a starting pitcher or two in free agency but it's not the strongest field.

 

On top of that, the Cubs will also have an increasingly expensive and aging payroll to consider. With the Marquee channel up and running, the Cubs should once again be able to spend over the tax threshold. I certainly don't have any inside knowledge, but it's reasonable to think the range would fall between $230-$250 million after this season.

 

If the Cubs don't trade Bryant or Contreras and extend Baez, here's about what the payroll will look like give or take:

 

Heyward - $23 mill AAV

Darvish - $21 mill

Javy - $25 mill (could be more, could be less)

Bryant - $28 mill

Contreras - $10 mill

Schwarber - $12 mill

Hendricks - $14 mill

Kimbrel - $14.3 mill

Rizzo - $7.6 mill (unless he's extended then 25ish?)

Bote - $3 mill

 

That's roughly $158 million for 10 players. With 16 arb or pre-arb guys to fill out the major league roster plus insurance, that probably brings it to around $185-190 million with 3 rotation spots left to fill, no CFer outside of Happ/Hoerner and a likely need for a reliever (or two).

 

You could sign 2 good FA starters and hope the 5th spot can be adequately filled from within (Mills, Rea, Marquez, Alzolay, Abbott, Cotton, Miller, K. Thompson, etc.), but there aren't that many good FA starters available next off season. Tanaka and/or Paxton (both 32) would have to be pried away from the Yankees in the midst of their window. Robbie Ray (29), Mike Minor (33), Marcus Stroman (30) and Anthony DeSclafani (30) make up the best of the rest, unless you want to touch the hot stove that is Trevor Bauer (30).

 

If you sign 2 of those guys and hope to field a good 5th starter from within, that's likely going to cost at least $35-40 million assuming one of those pitchers is really good and thus more expensive. So that brings us to $225-230 with a possible need to improve in CF and a likely need for at least one reliever.

 

That's doable. The Cubs could simply roll with Happ in CF after seeing how he does there this season, but they don't have a CFer in the system who will be ready by next off season unless Hoerner shows he can play above average defense there. If not, since in this scenario we aren't trading off our major league roster to get one, that leaves FA.

 

Luckily, George Springer is scheduled to be available (with Jackie Bradley, Jr., [expletive] Hernandez and Jake Marisnick as much less desirable options). But, unless ownership will be willing to exceed $250 million, you probably can't afford Springer. So now you're left shelling out FA dollars for one of those other guys or playing Happ/Hoerner there.

 

That's a good enough roster to be competitive in 2021. It's certainly a way to go. It's got some major drawbacks, though. It's expensive and short-sighted, not to mention aging. It also is only a one year solution because you're going to have extend Bryant and Rizzo in 2022. If the Cubs fill their rotation with good FA agent starters next off-season, ownership would have to be willing to go to around $290 to keep the band together. Not only does that not sound realistic to me, it doesn't sound like the best way to go for the roster's sake either given all the huge contracts that will have been given out to aging players.

 

All of this comes down to answering the following question: what is the best way to build a good starting rotation for 2021 and position the team to be competitive beyond 2022. And, of course, that brings us to examining trades.

 

The market for Bryant will never be higher. Not only is he a consistent 5+ WAR player who is in his prime and has 2 years of control (we assume), there are teams with a lot of young talented arms that have a specific need for a player exactly like him right now.

 

The drawbacks are obvious though. You don't have a good 3B replacement on your roster or the upper levels of your system, and you're definitely going to hurt your chances in 2020. The one position where the Cubs do have good depth, though, is at catcher. Vic Caratini looks like the real deal and could step into a starting role this year with Amaya advancing through the system starting the year in AA. You'd take a hit with offensive production by trading Contreras, but Caratini put up a wRC+ of 108 last season and was a 1.4 fWAR player in just 279 PAs. Metrics have him as a better defensive catcher than Contreras so the Cubs' 2020 chances would likely take another hit by dealing Willy, but not a big one unless Caratini majorly regresses.

 

So there appears to be another possible way forward other than keeping the band together for two more years. In this possible scenario, it's difficult to know which exact players the Cubs would be acquiring. Too many variables between the two front offices and how they evaluate the players involved, but we do know there are teams that match up really well for both Bryant and Contreras. The two best in my mind are the Angels for Contreras and the Braves for Bryant.

 

The Angels just signed 3B Anthony Rendon which potentially frees up their previous 3B, David Fletcher, to be dealt. Fletcher is similar to a young Ben Zobrist. He's good defensively at multiple positions (way better than Bryant at 3B), walks at a league average rate, rarely strikes out, gets on base, makes contact and was a league average bat (wRC+ of 99) last season with a 3.4 fWAR. He's 25, is controllable for another 5 seasons and it's reasonable to think his bat still has some projection to it.

 

The Angels also have a huge need at catcher and are clearly going all in this season. After shelling out $35 million for Rendon and still hoping to add a good starter via free agency, someone like Contreras at his salary, is just what they're looking for. They also have 2 good CF prospects. Jo Adell isn't going anywhere, but Brandon Marsh is 22, just hit .300/.383/.428 in AA and carries a 60 grade in speed and arm with a 55 in fielding. He may not have the power Happ has, but at 6'4" he's got the frame to add some and is already a way better defensive CFer.

 

Can you get Fletcher and Marsh for Contreras? It's in the realm of possibility given how motivated the Angels are this off season, but still a lot to ask, especially because it leaves a hole at 2B where Fletcher was penciled in for this season. The Angels do have La Stella on their bench who had a great season with the bat, but he’s a butcher with the glove, so someone like Bote would make a great righty/lefty platoon with him. Add in the Joe Maddon factor in Anaheim and it looks even more possible. So Contreras and Bote for Fletcher and Marsh (plus maybe some prospects involved in their somewhere).

 

Getting Fletcher gives you a replacement for Bryant and a good one (but not nearly as good). Now the Cubs would need to find a motivated team that needs a 3B and has a lot of quality starting depth. That's describes the Braves to a tee.

 

With Rendon leaving the division, the Braves are wanting to strike now. They got a jump on the market signing Cole Hamels, Travis d'Arnaud, Will Smith and Chris Martin. They're going for it, and the "final piece" is an impact bat who can play 3B/OF, but doesn't cost $35 million for the next 7 years. If they re-sign Donaldson, the Cubs would have to move on to other teams like the Dodgers, Nats and Phillies. The fits with those teams may cause the Cubs to trade Contreras to a different team like the Astros or Padres.

 

If the Braves don't re-sign Donaldson, they certainly have a lot of pitching from which to deal. Their current rotation features Soroka, Hamels, Fried, Folty and Sean Newcomb. They could re-sign Teheran at a discount after releasing him if they’re so inclined. Their pen is also well stocked with Melancon, Smith, Martin, Shane Greene, Jacob Webb, Touki Toussaint, Luke Jackson who was pretty good last year and A.J. Minter who was terrible last season but really good prior to that.

 

As if that weren't enough, the Braves also sport two top 40 pitching prospects, Ian Anderson (#31 on MLB) in AA last year and Kyle Wright (#35 on MLB) who was in AAA. Anderson was picked 3rd overall in 2016 and Wright 5th overall in 2017. They also have two highly regarded secondary arms in Bryce Wilson and Kyle Muller. On top of that, they have two top 25 prospects that play CF in Christian Pache (#11 on MLB) and Drew Waters (#23 on MLB). So their depth also matches up well with Cubs needs.

 

Guessing at which combination of players the Cubs and Braves would agree upon is next to impossible. There are simply so many variations to consider. You could go after all pitching in the form of Newcomb (with the idea of returning him to the rotation in 2020 allowing you to deal Quintana for a reliever), one of Anderson/Wright and one of Muller/Wilson. Is that enough? I don't know. That's above my paygrade. The point is there are a lot of options with the Braves that will fit the Cubs needs going forward and still leave the Braves capable of going all in this year and still retain depth in pitching along with a very good CFer of the future.

 

The Cubs don't necessarily have the Braves over a barrel, but if you're going to get Bryant, it's gonna have to hurt. Maybe you can get Anderson and Wright plus something else? Maybe you want to build the package around Fried. But what motivates the Braves even more is that there's not one team but two in their division that want Bryant, and both teams are good enough already that by adding him, they'd gain the upper hand in the division. It's the perfect storm.

 

So if they went this route, where would that leave the Cubs? Well, their 2020 chances would definitely take a hit. Would they be out of the running? No, but their chances of winning the division would definitely be lessened on paper. What would the 2020 payroll look like?

 

Lester - $26 mill AAV

Heyward - $23 mill AAV

Darvish - $21 mill

Javy - $25 mill assuming he's extended (could be more, could be less)

Schwarber - $8 mill

Hendricks - $14 mill

Kimbrel - $14.3 mill

Rizzo - $7.6 mill

Chatwood - $12.7

Descalso - $2.5

Almora - $1.8

Winkler - $750k (split contract)

 

The rest are pre-arb with Colin Rea in his 1st year of arbitration. That's roughly $142 million. With arb guys, buyouts and insurance, let's call it roughly $165 million. If Quintana isn't dealt for a young reliever, $175 million. The CBT is expected to be $210. Let's assume the Ricketts want to stay under that. The Cubs would then have around $40 million to spend ($30 with Q).

 

What would the roster look like?

 

C- Caratini

1B - Rizzo

2B - FA (Brock Holt, Starlin Castro, Scooter Gennett - the list is long at 2B/SS)

SS - Baez

3B - Fletcher

LF - Schwarber

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Rotation - Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Newcomb, Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay/etc.

Bullpen - Kimbrel, Wick, Reliever for Quintana, FA signing, Ryan, Wieck, Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay/etc.

 

(Or keep Quintana and put Newcomb in the pen for now.)

 

The Bench: FA catcher, Descalso (or cut him and sign somebody), Kemp (or cut him and sign somebody), Almora (maybe), Hoerner (at some point), etc.

 

There are a lot of solid bench options on the market currently. One possibility is to sign Akiyama on a 2-year deal, allowing Happ to come off the bench on some days.

 

With $40 million to spend (some on 1 year deals), and a lot of quality middle infield and reliever options still available, the Cubs could round out their roster quite well.

 

Well enough to be the clear favorite in the NL Central this season? No. But they aren’t that necessarily now with Bryant and Contreras. Yet, on paper they’d be worse. But these trade ideas were never about this year. So let’s look at how they’d set up for 2021 and beyond.

 

The rotation:

 

Darvish (34) at $21 million AAV

Hendricks (31) at $14 mill

 

And then a bevy of young, controllable arms from which to choose (whoever is most ready). Without knowing exactly who would be coming back in a Bryant trade, we can only speculate. But let’s say the group includes:

 

Sean Newcomb (28), 1st year of arbitration

Ian Anderson (22), Pre-arb

Bryce Wilson (23), Pre-arb

Brailyn Marquez (21), Pre-arb

Cory Abbott (25), Pre-arb

Adbert Alzolay (26), Pre-arb

Jharel Cotton (29), 1st year of arbitration

 

That rotation would cost somewhere around $40 million. What about the line-up?

 

C – Caratini (27), 1st year of arbitration

1B – Rizzo (31) extended at $25 million

2B – Hoerner (24), Pre-arb

SS – Baez (28) at $25 million

3B – Fletcher (26), Pre-arb

LF – Schwarber (28), extended at $14 million??

CF – Marsh (23), Pre-arb

RF – Heyward (31) at $23 million AAV

 

That line-up would cost somewhere around $95 million, give or take. That puts the Cubs at $135 with bullpen, bench and a potential hole in CF.

 

If Kimbrel is performing well, but the Cubs are out of it in 2020, they could deal him if they want, but let’s say he’s still with the team in 2021. That would bring the payroll up to around $150 and let’s estimate when all is said and done it’s at $175. If Akiyama is signed, he could help ease Brandon Marsh in at CF.

 

Here’s the thing. Without the need to spend 2020 free agent dollars on pitching and the Cubs estimated 2021 payroll being at $230-250, the Cubs could easily afford to outbid anyone for Springer or Betts (the 2 best free agents available next season and way better than any pitcher who could be signed). You’d have an OF mix of Betts/Springer, Schwarber, Marsh, Heyward and possibly Akiyama. Imagine this line-up:

 

3B – Fletcher

LF – Schwarber

RF – Betts

1B – Rizzo

SS – Baez

C – Caratini

2B – Hoerner

CF – Marsh

 

With Heyward, Happ and possibly Holt coming off the bench.

 

Defensively, Rizzo, Baez, Fletcher, Betts and Marsh are really good. Caratini and Hoerner are above average and Schwarber is average to slightly below.

 

The rotation will be good, but could possibly be great if one of Anderson or Marquez fulfills their potential. And we know it will be under control for years to come.

 

Okay, now tear me a new one!

Edited December 18, 2019 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

I started reading and slammed into the first wall:

 

Trade Bryant to the Braves for good, young, controllable pitching (something along the lines of Sean Newcomb, Ian Anderson and Bryce Wilson). The specific names don’t matter. The Braves have so many options, you can build a trade however you like.

 

So not just pitching but any pitching because they're all good? For Kris Bryant? Realistic?

I guess I'm hitting a wall, too. I'm not sure what you're having a hard time understanding.

 

The Braves have a lot of good arms both in the majors and in their system. One could build a package any number of ways. You want to build it around Fried because you really like him? Okay. You want to focus on Ian Anderson and go from there? Fine. You really like Kyle Wright the most? Sure. You think Bryce Wilson is overhyped, but would rather have Kyle Muller? Cool. You like Sean Newcomb as a secondary piece better than Kyle Muller? Go for it. You want a CFer of the future like Drew Waters instead of another pitcher? Okay, the Cubs could ask for an arm from the Angels instead of Brandon Marsh.

 

Does that help clear up what I wrote?

[squally1313]

While I have my own issues with the post, I appreciate the time you put into it. The issue from a Cubs perspective is that the idea seems to go against Theo's main strategy since he got here, which is that young hitting prospects give you a ton of surplus value, whereas pitching prospects are a crapshoot and most of them probably break anyways, so just pay for them when they establish themselves. I can't see that entirely flipping with a trade like this.

[Cubswin11]

I don’t think that’s a wrong way to look at things and there’s some hard truths in there. The pitching after this year is certainly a concern and the path laid out is definitely a path that needs to be looked at, at least as an exploratory plan (which I’m sure Theo and Co have) and if this is something being explored I’m sure a larger rebuild with trading guys off would be explored too. It obviously makes it easier if Mookie is gettable and a real target next year as KB’s star level replacement, the main thing I don’t like is that we’re getting pitching prospects as the main return for KB and they’re so coin flippy/can have timelines change drastically. But I get why that’s what you want for try and get for him since pitching of some type is such a need very soon (however it may be acquired).

 

Also, more as a nitpicking I don’t see Rizzo getting 25 AAV on his next deal. I’d think he’s closer to 17-21 AAV but that’s not overly significant.