2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

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[Brian]

“When Theo comes to suggest something like that, I generally approve it,” Ricketts said.

 

That's from the Mooney interview/article in The Athletic last week about adding Kimbrel and Castellanos last year, it's time for Tommy to nut up.

 

The rallying cry for shipping Bryant out is to protect the future of the team, well here's your MVP caliber 3B locked up long term (after you give him another guaranteed year for removing his opt out) on a silver platter.

 

Sure it's complicated but get it done.

[Cubswin11]

It is a marginal move and it still is an improvement. Pillar/Holt got ~900 PAs last year and were worth 2.8 WAR combined. Descalso, Kemp, Almora got ~650 and were worth -1.7. Scale it back to equal out the PAs at ~659 and that’s still a 2+ win improvement. Throw in they underachieved their Pythag that might have been all it took to swing things if they played a little closer to true talent level and had 2 better players on the back end of the bench.

 

You're trying to fix 2019 and 2019 cannot be fixed.

 

Holt and Pilllar combining for ~900 PAs on the 2020 Cubs means very bad things for the 2020 Cubs, especially since it took so many PAs to get 2.8 fWAR in 2019. Both guys will be 32 in 2020 and coming off ~ 1.5 fWAR seasons at 31. At 31 in 2018, Daniel Descalso put up 1.5 fWAR or so. He then signed with the Cubs with fewer PAs in mind from 2018 and had his worst season in a half decade. Why are those guys safer from this same situation playing out? Again the deck is so stacked against Pillar in particular - off the bat what you want out of him requires him to both sign for a gig he doesn't want under a contract well short of what he's asking while jobs are available and then lose to Ian Happ in ST. If he wins, there's still a half decade's worth of sub-.300 OBPs to work with out of an everyday lineup spot, which 2019 Almora did for the first time ever as a MLer to very bad team results

 

If the case against aiming higher is the LT, the team's already over the LT so where does Holt/Pillar money come from?

2018 was literally the first time Descalso put up higher than a .6 WAR for a season. Before then he literally had as many years at negative WAR as he did at positive WAR (which fluctuated from .1-.6). I went over all the reasons I think Holt and Pillar are more likely to put up positive WAR than Descalso/Almora next year on the last page or two. We can project all we want that it's fine because Descalso/Almora are just 5th OF'ers/pinch hitter are will see minimal PA's but we know that never works, someone gets hurt or sucks and they end up in an elevated role and they've failed miserably at that most of their careers. Holt and Pillar have proven to provide value in the situation they end up getting more PAs than we would project in preseason and they're just better players based on the body of work anyways.

 

I don't care what Pillar thinks he should or can get, the situation is it's almost February and he still doesn't have a job. He very likely has to settle for a job on a team somewhere where he isn't guaranteed every day starts going in to ST.

 

Adding these guys and a Souza on 1 year deals isn't going to take us much past $15 mil over on the LT (on the high side with the roster as of today) you can always shed money at the deadline to get under if they aren't looking competitive. The LT hit isn't calculated until years end and if we are competitive in to July maybe Tommy Boy is fine getting the bill for the tax again.

 

Yes, what a tragedy it would be Almora went from 2019 Almora to 2017 Almora...There's that ~2 WAR swing you want without anything happening but some shifts in usage with guys already in-house

If he's on the team this year I hope he plays and provides value like his 2017 self. There's nothing to suggest in the numbers for almost 2 years now that, that will be the case. Not even in this lessened role for him you are talking about because he just had that lessened role last year and failed.

[Cubswin11]

Lol, wow. Rarely see players make public comments like that towards their GM/FO. Don’t know exactly how he feels crossed or disrespected, since he’s apparently okay with the trade rumors. Maybe he was promised he’d be moved or was told a trade was happening and it didn’t.

 

[Clem Fandango]

Apparently it stems from inactivity to not improve the team this offseason after they signed him to a huge extension. Basically seems like they paid for him, then closed up the pocketbooks and he feels disrespected that the team wasn't willing to continue to spend money or make impactful moves to improve the team around him, I suppose.

 

The disrespect, sources told ESPN, centered on the Rockies' winter of inaction less than a year after the team signed Arenado to an eight-year, $260 million contract extension. When the organization signaled early this offseason that it did not intend to expand its payroll this winter, Arenado expressed betrayal, according to sources, believing Colorado was not doing enough to improve a team coming off a 71-91 season.

[Derwood]

I notice he wasn't unhappy or feeling disrespected when they were handing him bags of money last year

[entbird79]

Apparently it stems from inactivity to not improve the team this offseason after they signed him to a huge extension. Basically seems like they paid for him, then closed up the pocketbooks and he feels disrespected that the team wasn't willing to continue to spend money or make impactful moves to improve the team around him, I suppose.

 

The disrespect, sources told ESPN, centered on the Rockies' winter of inaction less than a year after the team signed Arenado to an eight-year, $260 million contract extension. When the organization signaled early this offseason that it did not intend to expand its payroll this winter, Arenado expressed betrayal, according to sources, believing Colorado was not doing enough to improve a team coming off a 71-91 season.

 

He'd love it here

[squally1313]

Yeah I think it's hard to articulate this point without coming across as arrogant, but I think ultimately we're all in agreement that Almora is a bad baseball player (though we might disagree on his exact level of suckiness)...but I don't think David Ross sees it the same way. I'm pretty sure I just saw a Theo quote that was like "look at Ian Happ, he might get 500 plate appearances this year". That doesn't scream full time starter to me. If Albert Almora is on the roster on opening day, my concern is that he's going to be the guy starting against the high strike out pitchers, and he's going to be the guy who comes in in the 6th inning for 'defensive purposes'. Those are things people think that he's good at, but he's not. Replace him with a guy who's perceived skill set actually matches what he can provide, and you've improved the team already.

 

There's one guy making the case for Almora on this roster, me, and nothing is based on Almora being the standard of good he's being held to to hold this very niche-y job. There's currently one FA CF who even kinda sorta fills Almora's role on the roster, and that's a 32 YO glove first CF who hasn't logged an OBP over .300 for half a decade while playing a ton of innings and games. The whole case for Pillar is that he's automatically better because of his 2015-2019 WAR totals. To log those WARs with his offense, Pillar had to get a ton of playing time while playing elite defense. His defense has been declining and the Cubs don't have starter PAs for the backup CF, that's why they're the backup CF. So right off the bat the deck would be stacked against Kevin Pillar succeeding here. From there, Kevin Pillar has earned the right to shop himself as a starter in FA to the end especially with multiple teams - Philly to start - with a worse CF situation and more competition free playing time

 

Without Almora, and say the likeliest scenario plays out in which Kevin Pillar doesn't care to sign a contract where he has to compete with or back up Ian Happ for no money, the starting RF and starting 3B become the backup CFs. Pulling Bryant from 3B means now 2B and 3B are sharing players. Pulling Heyward from RF most likely means they done went and pulled Bryant from 3B which is bad OR Happ's got to cover for a struggling 2B situation which is also bad

 

To further pound on that whole replacing him with a guy with a skill set that matches whatever hype: If we're flexible enough to buy that Brock Holt is a versatile defensive or good enough defensive 2B then we're flexible enough to buy that Almora can play CF better than all available options willing and able to take the same job for the same pay or worse

 

To address your points in various order:

 

1. I don't care particularly care how many PAs it took Pillar to produce positive WAR, because it was positive. Cut his 645 PAs and his 1.5 fWAR from 2019 in half, and I'll even round down for you, that's 0.7 fWAR in 320ish PAs, a little less than what Almora got. That's a 1.5 win swing. I don't think anyone wanted to see what 2019 Almora would have produced with 600+ PAs.

2. Kevin Pillar declining from a very good defensive outfielder to a barely positive one in 2019, vs Almora who has never approached Pillar's defensive numbers, and would you look at that, also declined pretty significantly in 2019. Yeah, still Pillar.

3. I appreciate you spending thousands of words talking about how bad Pillar is, but then also arguing that he'll probably get a starting job elsewhere (on a contender, even), but sure, fine, let's say Philly or whoever signs him instead. As you acknowledge, we have players on the roster who can play center field. The nice thing about that is that instead of having tunnel vision on FA CFers who fills the "Almora role" (which, lol), you can look at backup/platoon players who can play the corner outfield, who can play third base, who can play second base. Your paragraph that starts with "Without Almora" is flawed because you imply that he's gone and Pillar isn't here, but we just...decided not to fill that roster spot? How about a corner outfielder who lets Heyward move to center a couple times a week? Or an infielder that can let Bryant move out there, given that Bote and Hoerner already exist, plus whoever?

[Tim]

I'll say this, but I really hate saying it...If they've only got a couple million to spend, we're probably better off adding to the bullpen than upgrading from Almora to Pillar.

 

But I really wish we had non-tendered Almora and invested his $1.8M elsewhere. I think there are a variety of AAAA guys available each year that could provide everything he will.

[squally1313]

I'll say this, but I really hate saying it...If they've only got a couple million to spend, we're probably better off adding to the bullpen than upgrading from Almora to Pillar.

 

But I really wish we had non-tendered Almora and invested his $1.8M elsewhere. I think there are a variety of AAAA guys available each year that could provide everything he will.

 

I think that's a false choice. It's not Almora vs the only centerfield option out there (if that's even true). It's also Almora vs a back up 3B/2B, or a corner outfield guy who maybe hits lefties really well. There are at least two, probably three guys on the roster who can spell Happ in center.

[Tim]

I'll say this, but I really hate saying it...If they've only got a couple million to spend, we're probably better off adding to the bullpen than upgrading from Almora to Pillar.

 

But I really wish we had non-tendered Almora and invested his $1.8M elsewhere. I think there are a variety of AAAA guys available each year that could provide everything he will.

 

I think that's a false choice. It's not Almora vs the only centerfield option out there (if that's even true). It's also Almora vs a back up 3B/2B, or a corner outfield guy who maybe hits lefties really well. There are at least two, probably three guys on the roster who can spell Happ in center.

I'll expand my point then. If we've only got a couple million to spend, I'd prioritize the bullpen instead of the bench at this point.

 

Obviously, if we've got more to spend, then let's go nuts.

[Cubswin11]

I'll say this, but I really hate saying it...If they've only got a couple million to spend, we're probably better off adding to the bullpen than upgrading from Almora to Pillar.

 

But I really wish we had non-tendered Almora and invested his $1.8M elsewhere. I think there are a variety of AAAA guys available each year that could provide everything he will.

 

I think that's a false choice. It's not Almora vs the only centerfield option out there (if that's even true). It's also Almora vs a back up 3B/2B, or a corner outfield guy who maybe hits lefties really well. There are at least two, probably three guys on the roster who can spell Happ in center.

I'll expand my point then. If we've only got a couple million to spend, I'd prioritize the bullpen instead of the bench at this point.

 

Obviously, if we've got more to spend, then let's go nuts.

Who is or was a bullpen arm to spend on that would’ve made you feel good? This FA bullpen class sucked. I’m fine going with the cheap, volume approach and still maybe bringing Strop or some cheap vet in closer to ST.

[squally1313]

I'll say this, but I really hate saying it...If they've only got a couple million to spend, we're probably better off adding to the bullpen than upgrading from Almora to Pillar.

 

But I really wish we had non-tendered Almora and invested his $1.8M elsewhere. I think there are a variety of AAAA guys available each year that could provide everything he will.

 

I think that's a false choice. It's not Almora vs the only centerfield option out there (if that's even true). It's also Almora vs a back up 3B/2B, or a corner outfield guy who maybe hits lefties really well. There are at least two, probably three guys on the roster who can spell Happ in center.

I'll expand my point then. If we've only got a couple million to spend, I'd prioritize the bullpen instead of the bench at this point.

 

Obviously, if we've got more to spend, then let's go nuts.

 

Yeah, I can buy that argument, although at what point do you hit a point of diminishing returns by adding the 13th slightly above average pitcher to the bullpen rotation. There's more than just free agent options though...there's going to be roster crunches, players left without options, etc that you can go and scoop up for nothing (or maybe even Almora!) over the next month or so.

[David]

 

I think that's a false choice. It's not Almora vs the only centerfield option out there (if that's even true). It's also Almora vs a back up 3B/2B, or a corner outfield guy who maybe hits lefties really well. There are at least two, probably three guys on the roster who can spell Happ in center.

I'll expand my point then. If we've only got a couple million to spend, I'd prioritize the bullpen instead of the bench at this point.

 

Obviously, if we've got more to spend, then let's go nuts.

Who is or was a bullpen arm to spend on that would’ve made you feel good? This FA bullpen class sucked. I’m fine going with the cheap, volume approach and still maybe bringing Strop or some cheap vet in closer to ST.

 

yeah i'd rather go with a bunch of cheap plays on upside than pay up for the type of "proven" reliever you get by spending a couple million. that's how you get dudes like kintzler and duensing.

[Andy]

I notice he wasn't unhappy or feeling disrespected when they were handing him bags of money last year

Players really ought not to have to choose between being paid what they're worth and having any hope of being on a competitive team ever.

[Andy]

“When Theo comes to suggest something like that, I generally approve it,” Ricketts said.

 

That's from the Mooney interview/article in The Athletic last week about adding Kimbrel and Castellanos last year, it's time for Tommy to nut up.

 

The rallying cry for shipping Bryant out is to protect the future of the team, well here's your MVP caliber 3B locked up long term (after you give him another guaranteed year for removing his opt out) on a silver platter.

 

Sure it's complicated but get it done.

 

Full up with a better one already

Bryant can play the outfield.

 

Put it this way, there is literally nothing, within reason, the Cubs can do right now that would increase their chances of winning a title this year more than going to get Arenado. Especially if the most likely alternative is him playing for St. Louis.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

That's from the Mooney interview/article in The Athletic last week about adding Kimbrel and Castellanos last year, it's time for Tommy to nut up.

 

The rallying cry for shipping Bryant out is to protect the future of the team, well here's your MVP caliber 3B locked up long term (after you give him another guaranteed year for removing his opt out) on a silver platter.

 

Sure it's complicated but get it done.

 

Full up with a better one already

Bryant can play the outfield.

 

Put it this way, there is literally nothing, within reason, the Cubs can do right now that would increase their chances of winning a title this year more than going to get Arenado. Especially if the most likely alternative is him playing for St. Louis.

This is entirely true, apart from the fact you are implying that trading for Arenado is included in the "within reason" realm, knowing what we know about budget constraints that are obviously being imposed.

[Andy]

 

Full up with a better one already

Bryant can play the outfield.

 

Put it this way, there is literally nothing, within reason, the Cubs can do right now that would increase their chances of winning a title this year more than going to get Arenado. Especially if the most likely alternative is him playing for St. Louis.

This is entirely true, apart from the fact you are implying that trading for Arenado is included in the "within reason" realm, knowing what we know about budget constraints that are obviously being imposed.

That's fair. I wasn't counting the violation of self-imposed constraints as being unreasonable, but obviously I'm daydreaming here.

[Cubswin11]

I notice he wasn't unhappy or feeling disrespected when they were handing him bags of money last year

Players really ought not to have to choose between being paid what they're worth and having any hope of being on a competitive team ever.

If winning/being somewhere competitive was the most important thing to him he didn’t need to sign the extension last offseason. He could’ve been a FA this year and gone somewhere different that gave him a better chance to win. He still would’ve been paid what he was worth. They’re also paying almost $60 million this year to Wade Davis, Ian Desmond, Jake McGee, Brian Shaw and Daniel Murphy. That’s a lot of dead weight, he could’ve seen they might wait a year or two to spend again as that horsefeathers comes off the books. They also gave Blackmon a dumb extension last year too. They’ve spent money to try and compete (I mean they made the playoffs in 2018), they’ve largely spent it poorly. No doubt they could be doing more but when they have spent its been mostly horrible decisions. There’s also the whole thing where it’s hard to get decent pitchers to go to Coors.

[Sammy Sofa]

Unless we're missing some key details about Arendao kidnapping and holding the Rockies' FO and owners' loved ones for ransom, putting the onus on a player as if they should know better to take less than what was offered to him is hugely faulty.

[Sammy Sofa]

Or some crazy contract provision a la, "I, Nolan Arenado, hereby acknowledge by signing this extension that my team, the Colorado Rockies, can tank however they want afterwards." Otherwise it's just ye olde siding with management.

[Cubswin11]

Unless we're missing some key details about Arendao kidnapping and holding the Rockies' FO and owners' loved ones for ransom, putting the onus on a player as if they should know better to take less than what was offered to him is hugely faulty.

Not saying he should’ve taken less or it’s on players to take less to win. But when signing a deal of that size, if winning is still a very important thing, I think the player should do (or agents on their behalf) some basic due diligence to asses if the team they’re signing with really can compete or add as much or as soon as they want to be whatever they think “competitive” is.

 

It’s not hard to see “oh they’re paying these bad players almost $60 million this year, a declining Charlie Blackmon is also owed $70+ million over the next 4 years (and $60+ in next 3), Trevor Strory is a pending FA so maybe they’re holding out money to re-sign him. If I sign up for almost $40 million a year maybe they won’t spend a lot more over the next few years and if competing at a high level is still important to me maybe I should go to FA and see where else I can go to be in a better spot to do that. Where I’ll still have a 9 figure contact available to me.”

[Sammy Sofa]

Sorry, never going to agree with the idea that it's up to the player and their people to second guess the organization's offer to them, because that just sets the shitty precedent that a player SHOULD take some kind of a cut or a discount because woe unto the poor, poor generous owners, just stupidly throwing money they can't actually afford at the greedy players. Come on.

[David]

Unless we're missing some key details about Arendao kidnapping and holding the Rockies' FO and owners' loved ones for ransom, putting the onus on a player as if they should know better to take less than what was offered to him is hugely faulty.

Not saying he should’ve taken less or it’s on players to take less to win. But when signing a deal of that size, if winning is still a very important thing, I think the player should do (or agents on their behalf) some basic due diligence to asses if the team they’re signing with really can compete or add as much or as soon as they want to be whatever they think “competitive” is.

 

It’s not hard to see “oh they’re paying these bad players almost $60 million this year, a declining Charlie Blackmon is also owed $70+ million over the next 4 years (and $60+ in next 3), Trevor Strory is a pending FA so maybe they’re holding out money to re-sign him. If I sign up for almost $40 million a year maybe they won’t spend a lot more over the next few years and if competing at a high level is still important to me maybe I should go to FA and see where else I can go to be in a better spot to do that. Where I’ll still have a 9 figure contact available to me.”

 

at the very least, that sort of thing should be a very big part of his agent's job

[jersey cubs fan]

He signed the contract during a period where big contracts completely dried up because of the collusion between owners.

 

He also got opt-outs into the contract and should use them as pressure to get what he wants from the team, including trying.