2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[weis21]

Forget Holt, re-sign Zobrist.

I’m not opposed to this at all. But, I haven’t even heard a whisper about him and so I kind of just imagine he’s splitting his time with his kids and then flying down to Costa Rica to hang with Toby or something.

[Bertz]

There are two components to a good bench. The first is depth, basically the ability to run 8 good players out there every day even with injuries. The second is having complimentary skillsets, putting your guys in the best position to succeed.

 

In terms of depth, the situation actually isn't that bad. And if Nico is good right away, it's pretty good. That'd make 11 quality guys for 8 spots, and with the positional flexibility present every position has a strong backup. It's not the stupid depth from 2016, but it's about as good as any non-Dodgers team. Though clearly Nico being good right away isn't a given.

 

The complimentary skills aspect is where the bench is severely lacking. The entire starting outfield has severe L/R splits, yet the roster lacks a RH compliment beyond Almora. Speaking of Almora, he's the only real CF on the roster. On the infield, the main guys are all right handed aside from Rizzo, but the only LH complimentary bat is Descalso. There's also the whole high fastball thing which is pretty systemic throughout the roster, as well as basically no speed beyond Nico and Javy. The team is very vulnerable to certain matchups.

 

In an ideal world we'd add something like Brock Holt, Kevin Pillar, and Billy Hamilton to patch all those holes. From there send Almora to Iowa until August a la Happ and Descalso would get until Nico'sready to prove he shouldn't be DFAd. Instead we're going to have to hope Descalso's issue was just the ankle and that Almora was overexposed and will do better as a matchup guy. Neither is unreasonable, but when combined with Nico being a rookie and the short track record of the new and improved Happ there is a lot more downside risk than any of us would probably like to see.

 

Something I'd like to see to help combat this is a lot more Willson and KB (if applicable) in the outfield. This would really help Ross have as many positive matchups as possible at his disposal. Yes, Willson essentially lost a game in Pittsburgh last year with his defense, but that was on Joe for putting him out there with almost no prep. If he played once a week or so out there, he'd be an adequate defender and we could get both him and Caratini into the lineup more. KB in CF further solves a lot of the imbalance issues on the roster, and he has the speed to handle it. I really really want to see this if he doesn't get moved. Overall, I'd like to see something like this:

 

Willson - 100 starts at C, 30 in OF

Caratini - 60 at C, 10 at 1B

Rizzo - 150 at 1B

Nico - 50 in MiLB, 60 at 2B, 15 in CF, 15 at SS

Baez - 145 at SS

Bote - 60 at 3B, 60 at 2B

KB - 80 at 3B, 50 in CF, 20 in OF

Happ - 80 in CF, 15 at 2B, 15 at 3B, 20 in OF

Schwarber/Heyward - 130 in LF/RF respectively

 

Nico and Happ probably don't have to move around quite this much, but it's in service of keeping them both legitimately usable as super utility types.

[Cubswin11]

I wholly disagree that the current bench doesn't compliment the starters. Almora's a high contact hitter behind Happ in CF and a RHH backing up the other two also Schwarber K's.No one else plays CF on the roster except Bryant a few times 5 years ago. If Hoerner's legit he's the starting 2B and the bench really gets a find in Bote. If not, Bote and Descalso form a 2B platoon in which Bote gets most of the PAs. Caratini's an outstanding backup C who may even have starter potential somewhere, has the bat to give Rizzo the day off or catch and let Contreras give Rizzo a day off. Also also Contreras to the OF so often isn't part of any solution, he's been there 14 times combined since 2016 and probably means things got worse somehow

 

If anything what this team needs needs is a starting OF with at least some CF experience or enough bat potential to not care if he/them/they can only fake it...Preferably RH or SH...minimum starting caliber RF with some CF experience...Gets on base, has some power, gives good PA, maybe has a ton of contender experience...Wonder if there's a guy....If there's a FA more on the must sign ASAP end of the spectrum, it would be this guy

Can we get a dislike button?

 

[Cubswin11]

.

 

Hot take: picking *this* offseason and not the several before it to headhunt Almora, no longer the starting CF or even a starting OF, is forced and I have a hard time taking it seriously. It's not his fault, he's not the problem and *never has been*

He absolutely is part of the problem and I’ve been saying he is a horsefeathers player for well over a year now and have wanted him gone going back to the last two offseasons. Bertz is 100% right in his statements above. The depth is kinda okay, especially if Nico is a thing. But still could use an add or two. How they all work together and compliment each other is lacking significantly and is a clear weakness that needs fixing.

Edited January 19, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Derwood]

Saying Amora and Descalso are the answer to anything besides "who are the first two players that should be replaced" is pure madness

[Cubswin11]

He absolutely is part of the problem and I’ve been saying he is a horsefeathers player for over a year now and have wanted him gone going back to last two offseasons. Bertz is 100% right in his statements above. The depth is kinda okay, especially if Nico is a thing. How they all work together and compliment each other is lacking significantly and is a clear weakness that needs fixing.

 

- He's 100% right in the sense that they don't fit into some arbitrary ideal, hence their smaller salaries, but literally their individual general skillsets tend to compliment the players around them or at least the ones they'll work with most. No one's really telling me how they don't

But they don’t have complimentary skill sets because they have no skills. That’s what we’re telling you. Almora doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball, Descalso doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball. It’s that simple, they bring nothing to the table.

[Derwood]

High contact....right into a 4-3 put out. Sweet, let's extend him

[Cubswin11]

They don’t have complimentary skill sets because they have no skills and suck. That’s what we’re telling you. Almora doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball, Descalso doesn’t compliment anyone well because he sucks at baseball. It’s that simple, they bring nothing to the table.

 

I think there's some confusion. I understand what you're trying to tell me. It's any explanation for why these are facts and not just hyperbolic statements being repeated by the same guys who valued Kris Bryant at Zac Gallen, any one or maybe two of the D'Backs' top 10 prospects, and a little something else last week. I mean the solutions we're talking are Brock Holt, Kevin Pillar, or Billy Hamilton...these don't sound like solutions so much as new future problems with less or at best similar upside

 

This offseason one of your pitches for a player (thinki t was Brandon Marsh) was that he makes contact and occupies CF, which in that post had it's own value. That's Almora, except he does it in the MLs and is already in house. Literally that skillset + RHH bat compliments the LHH and/or high K bats for Schwarber, Happ, and Heyward in front of him as well as their defensive skillsets

 

He doesn’t make that high of contact, his 77% or so wasn’t even top 100 in MLB for guys with his PAs. His contact profile is garbage too, so I don’t care if he’s a high contact guy if it’s soft GBs every time. He also hasn’t hit LHP for 1.5 years. We’ve been over all this before. For some reason you think Almora is good (or at least useful) and myself and many others don’t and we think just adding 1-3 of Holt/Pillar/Souza types is a upgrade over him and others and are more useful. It’s not about those guys having upside even, it’s the fact they are safer bets to produce a little value and have a more established floor/certainty of production.

 

I didn’t necessarily value KB at that, it was my guess what a trade would maybe be when they were rumored to be in on us. It was nothing more than internet conjecture. I do like Marsh as a prospect, I think he can be better than Almora (at least a strong side platoon guy) he also takes walks. Again talking about him was more conjecture than a guy I think we should go out of our way to get. When Willy, Q, and KB were all linked to the Angels he was simply a name that stood out to me when looking at things they could possibly offer. I wouldn’t be thrilled if we traded for him and just have him the CF job right now though, he’s clearly an unknown and if he has a contact profile like Almora I wouldn’t want him around the team either unless he was an elite defender/base runner/etc.

[Cubswin11]

He doesn’t make that high of contact, his 77% or so wasn’t even top 100 in MLB for guys with his PAs. His contact profile is garbage too, so I don’t care if he’s a high contact guy if it’s soft GBs every time. He also hasn’t hit LHP for 1.5 years. We’ve been over all this before. For some reason you think Almora is good (or at least useful) and myself and many others don’t and we think just adding 1-3 of Holt/Pillar/Souza types is a upgrade over him and others and are more useful. It’s not about those guys having upside even, it’s the fact they are safer bets to produce a little value and have a more established floor/certainty of production.

 

- He's the team's backup CF and 4th probably 5th when OF. He doesn't need to be in the top 100 overall MLB players, what even is that? He also owns a 17% K rate at a time the league K rate is around 23-24% IIRC

 

- The batted profile and lack of success offensively even against LHP is why he is now a reserve OF and not a starting OF, which he's walked into the previous two seasons as. He did bad things, bad things happened back in a big demotion and smaller salary compared to his teammates

 

- You offer literally no explanation for why those guys are safer bets to produce a little value beyond that producing very little value is something they've been able to do for some time now, which shouldn't make you optimistic about them. I don't see how Almora's 2019 is a career killer but we should be hot and heavy for Brock Holt after his 2017 or Pillar's .3 combined WAR over his past 800+ ML PAs....Souza didn't even play last year because he was hurt, you're looking for for the Cubs to sign this off-injury former COF to be signed as the team's backup CF...So not only are they not really actually safer bets to produce a little value, but some are worse bets. They're all low upside plays no matter what

But with the teams current construction we clearly need RHH options to compliment a LHH heavy OF. I don’t like that Almora is that option. 4th OF’er or lower it doesn’t matter, he has a clear path to playing time and I (and others) don’t like that because we think he’s bad. The top 100 comment was in regards to his contact rate, not his overall ranking as a player. You said he’s a contact guy and he doesn’t even do it exceptionally well. I also don’t care about the lack of Ks because he makes garbage contact and also doesn’t walk. The low Ks bring little value.

 

 

Pillar has been worth positive WAR every year since 2015, career wRC+ over 100 vs LHP and over 100 2 of last 3 years. Holt has been worth positive WAR 4 of the last 5 years and the last 2. He has elite contact rates, no extreme platoon splits, plays a few positions and actually takes some walks. So yeah that’s my evidence, amongst other things, that they’re safer bets than Almora and Descalso to produce positive value and be better than them. Even if it’s the margins of 1-2 wins.

 

Souza is a gamble and I look at him more as a Heyward/Schwarbs platoon partner than a CF solution. The last full season he had he was a 3.8 win player, he’s a nice low risk gamble to give us a RHH OF.

[Derwood]

Tom's argument is "he's just a guy so he's fine as a 5th OF or whatever"

 

The rest of us are saying "he's just a guy so why not upgrade that roster spot instead of having one of the statistically worst hitters of 2019 sitting there"?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Tom's argument is "he's just a guy so he's fine as a 5th OF or whatever"

 

The rest of us are saying "he's just a guy so why not upgrade that roster spot instead of having one of the statistically worst hitters of 2019 sitting there"?

Well, its true that Almora is just a guy and that could maybe work as a 5th OF, but that means almost nothing. He'll probably be a better guy than he was last year (because its almost impossible to be worse) but Almora sucks and we can do better. Bonus coverage: Almora doesn't fit with our team because he can't hit LHP and his defence/non-existant baserunning isn't good enough to make up for it, even as a bench guy.

[Cubswin11]

But with the teams current construction we clearly need RHH options to compliment a LHH heavy OF. I don’t like that Almora is that option. 4th OF’er or lower it doesn’t matter, he has a clear path to playing time and I (and others) don’t like that because we think he’s bad. The top 100 comment was in regards to his contact rate, not his overall ranking as a player. You said he’s a contact guy and he doesn’t even do it exceptionally well. I also don’t care about the lack of Ks because he makes garbage contact and also doesn’t walk. The low Ks bring little value.

 

Pillar has been worth positive WAR every year since 2015, career wRC+ over 100 vs LHP and over 100 2 of last 3 years. Holt has been worth positive WAR 4 of the last 5 years and the last 2. He has elite contact rates, no extreme platoon splits, plays a few positions and actually takes some walks. So yeah that’s my evidence, amongst other things, that they’re safer bets than Almora and Descalso to produce positive value and be better than them. Even if it’s the margins of 1-2 wins.

 

Souza is a gamble and I look at him more as a Heyward/Schwarbs platoon partner than a CF solution. The last full season he had he was a 3.8 win player, he’s a nice low risk gamble to give us a RHH OF.

 

- I don't understand the logic here. He's not a contact guy instead he's a low Ks guy and low Ks have little value but contact...like...what are the rules here? It just sounds like you're making up hoops for him to jump through that no single other player has to

 

- "Positive WAR" for Pillar has added up to .3 beween 2018-2019. Almora's gone over 100 wRC+ v LHP in 2 of the past 3 years including 138 in 2017. Pillar last posted an OBP above .300 in 2016 when it was .303 which followed a .314...Almora has a .311 career OBP

 

- Holt's been Almora by WAR + a 2 WAR 2015 since the latter joined the league with those same elite contact rates, lack of splits, the walks, and mostly bad defenses everywhere but LF which he's also sucked at since 2017 or so..Not sure why this makes him a *better* better for 2020 between them, why not Almora with a 2 WAR season since that's the big difference? Like Bote, Almora's the getting to be the same age is even a little younger than Holt was when he had his best seasons. I don't even think the margins are that high on these guys

 

- They're not platooning Schwarber or a $20+ million Heyward to open the season, so again not something that has to happen before ST or even early into ST

Aren’t you trying to say somehow his contact and low Ks make him valuable and it’s some sort of useful skill set he brings? Because it doesn’t mean that to me because the contact he makes is bad and it isn’t valuable contact. Not striking out isn’t a good thing when the trade off is soft GBs most of the time and taking no walks.

 

Pillar has been worth 3.5 WAR between 2018-19. 4 of the last 5 years he’s put up 2+ WAR (or more value in 4 single years than Almora has his entire career WAR). Almora has regressed significantly, what he did in 2017 and up to June 2018 has little value or meaning to me. Pillar has been far more consistent (even if it’s nothing spectacular) for much longer and has proven he can carry value. He’s a 1.5- 3 win improvement over Almora. That’s significant for a marginal move.

 

Holt is more a Descalso replacement than Almora, but again has a longer track record of carrying some value.

 

You’re platoon comment makes no horsefeathering sense. Why wouldn’t they platoon those guys? They’re both awful vs LHP and they’ve done it before when the depth was there (Zobrist, Soler, Willy, Bryant, Castellanos, etc) have all played in the OF over them vs LHP. Not having a RHH option to pair with at least one, if not both of them is roster construction negligence if they’re actually trying to win and compete.

[Cubswin11]

You’re trying to say somehow his contact and low Ks make him valuable. It doesn’t because the contact he makes is bad and it isn’t valuable contact. Not striking out isn’t always a good thing when the trade off is soft GBs most of the time and taking no walks.

 

Pillar has been worth 3.5 WAR between 2018-19. 4 of the last 5 years he’s put up 2+ WAR (or more value in 4 single years than Almora has his entire career WAR). Almora has regressed significantly, what he did in 2017 and up to June 2018 has little value or meaning to me. Pillar has been far more consistent (even if it’s nothing spectacular) for much longer and has proven he can carry value. He’s a 1.5- 3 win improvement over Almora. That’s significant for a marginal move.

 

Holt is more a Descalso replacement than Almora, but again has a longer track record of carrying some value.

 

Wait, so you're on a platoon Kyle Schwarber thing too? Not just platoon Kyle Schwarber, but do it with a guy coming off a knee injury and surgery? This has to start in January 2020 when no baseball's happening and that guy is still available to everyone? Is the injury for symmetry? And this is to improve their chances of winning and competing while also not being negligent? Alright-y

 

Anyway:

 

- Yeah, not what I'm saying at all but who's reading? That said, I have said his low K profile compliments the LHH high K LF and the high K switch hitting likely starting CF, which it does just not to your arbitrary likings

 

- I misread Pillar's WAR. OTOH, I did not mis-read his OBP and he legit has not topped .300 since 2016. Since he has such crappy OBPs it's safe to assume he's getting that WAR from: lots of playing time, some power, and defense. No one's paying a 32 YO for his glove in a future season, which is why he's still a FA even with lots of teams looking for CF help and could remain one well into ST

 

- January 2020, after multiple people in the FO just said stuff about being very active before the season possibly and the offseason still having plenty of time, is not the time to worry about replacing the local pinch hitter (Descalso/Holt). Not only that but Holt should be and likely is pursuing a better FA contract than that imaginary offer you have for him

It doesn’t compliment them in a positive way. Just because he doesn’t strike out much and there’s guys who strike out at decent rates he can platoon with doesn’t make him usefully complimentary if he literally can’t do anything on offense that’s valuable.

 

I don’t necessarily want a strict, full time platoon for Schwarbs. But him and Heyward probably shouldn’t start more than 10% of the games vs LHP. I’d like to have RHH options for the OF to play over both him and Heyward vs LHP (Bryant likely being one, Souza ideally being the other) since KS/JH are both in the 70s for wRC+ vs LHP for their careers.

 

I’d prefer these things get done sooner than later. These are clear holes and issues. I don’t trust anything the FO says with moves they might make or how busy they’ll be, but if these moves don’t get done until next month it won’t bother me. I just hope they get done before opening day because done nothing all the sudden we get to June/July they realize “oh yeah Almora and Descalso suck, with Schwarbs, Happ and Heyward all playing vs LHP our numbers vs them are bad, sure would be nice to have some complimentary RHH options to play over them but oh well. Who could’ve seen that?” Which is exactly what happened last year and largely why they had to add Castellanos.

[Splendid Splinter]

He's the team's backup CF and 4th probably 5th when OF.

 

 

You keep saying this, but dude has almost 800 ABs this past 2 seasons and probably will get as many ABs as he did this past season (339) which is about 150 too many IMO. That probably puts him in the top 30 for CFs in terms of ABs. What make you think that he won't be the starting CF this season? Theo/Ross/etc haven't convinced me this offseason that he's going to be on the bench and be the 4th/5th OF. They all love him and think there's more to him than what he has shown so far.

 

Don't get me wrong. I hope he figured out how to play with his skillset ala Baez, but to me, he just sucks. Like NOTHING about his skillset tells you that he's going to bounce back in a big way or you see that there's potential that just needs to be unlocked somehow.

[Derwood]

So your premise is that he sucked because he was the starter, but he'll be somehow less awful because he'll be a backup (though there is no indication that's true as of today)?

[squally1313]

He's the team's backup CF and 4th probably 5th when OF.

 

 

You keep saying this, but dude has almost 800 ABs this past 2 seasons and probably will get as many ABs as he did this past season (339) which is about 150 too many IMO. That probably puts him in the top 30 for CFs in terms of ABs. What make you think that he won't be the starting CF this season? Theo/Ross/etc haven't convinced me this offseason that he's going to be on the bench and be the 4th/5th OF. They all love him and think there's more to him than what he has shown so far.

 

Don't get me wrong. I hope he figured out how to play with his skillset ala Baez, but to me, he just sucks. Like NOTHING about his skillset tells you that he's going to bounce back in a big way or you see that there's potential that just needs to be unlocked somehow.

 

Yeah I think it's hard to articulate this point without coming across as arrogant, but I think ultimately we're all in agreement that Almora is a bad baseball player (though we might disagree on his exact level of suckiness)...but I don't think David Ross sees it the same way. I'm pretty sure I just saw a Theo quote that was like "look at Ian Happ, he might get 500 plate appearances this year". That doesn't scream full time starter to me. If Albert Almora is on the roster on opening day, my concern is that he's going to be the guy starting against the high strike out pitchers, and he's going to be the guy who comes in in the 6th inning for 'defensive purposes'. Those are things people think that he's good at, but he's not. Replace him with a guy who's perceived skill set actually matches what he can provide, and you've improved the team already.

[Backtobanks]

The only skill set that Almora or most of our relief pitchers need is that they are inexpensive.

[Brian]

King Felix taking what's left of his talents to Atlanta.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

Even with discounted playing time Pillar is still better than Almora. Sure Pillar might not get the 2015-19 PAs to reach 2+ WAR. But he’s still better than Almora regardless of PAs and even if the backup/RHH CF’er is only in line for 200-300 PAs I’d rather they go to an actually decent player than Almora’s bum ass. These margin moves are where we lost a lot of value last year sticking with shitty players.

[Cubswin11]

[Brian]

There's the next puzzle piece for the cardinals getting him and half of his salary for Dexter and a mid-level prospect

[Cubswin11]

Even with discounted playing time Pillar is still better than Almora. Sure Pillar might not get the 2015-19 PAs to reach 2+ WAR. But he’s still better than Almora regardless of PAs and even if the backup/RHH CF’er is only in line for 200-300 PAs I’d rather they go to an actually decent player than Almora’s bum ass. These margin moves are where we lost a lot of value last year sticking with horsefeathers players.

 

Even if you buy the bold as 100% fact, and it's just another unverified statement among many, go try selling him on taking less playing time for Ian Happ's sake in January

 

The Cubs finished in 3rd place, 7 games back, and only 3 games above .500. That's not marginal moves away nor a gap the bottom two position players on the roster are supposed to cover themselves. It's not a gap Kevin Pillar or Brock Holt are covering either....... Also it slipped my mind that Almora basically had this role already, in 2016-2017 and was successful as was the team

It is a marginal move and it still is an improvement. Pillar/Holt got ~900 PAs last year and were worth 2.8 WAR combined. Descalso, Kemp, Almora got ~650 and were worth -1.7. Scale it back to equal out the PAs at ~650 and that’s still a 2+ win improvement. Throw in they underachieved their Pythag that might have been all it took to swing things if they played a little closer to true talent level and had 2 better players on the back end of the bench.

 

Also Almora pretty much had the same role this year that he did in 2017. Similar amount of PAs and games played in 2019 and 2017. Even similar PAs vs LHP and RHP both years. 2016 was like 40 games and 110 PAs, basically small sample size noise. So going back to the 2017 role doesn’t give me any comfort when he just horsefeathering failed miserably at it.

Edited January 21, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

[UMFan83]

 

Time to get used to loathing Nolan Arenado