2020 roster

[The_Achiever]

MLB Trade Rumors has their top 50 free agent predictions out and have us signing just Kyle Gibson and will Harris. Grim.

 

Brutal, after a third place finish. This team has so many holes but signing a true big gun like Cole or Strasburg (yeah right to both) would make us contenders again.

[Bertz]

Kyle Gibson isn't super exciting, but if he really only costs 2/18 you do that deal 1000 times. That's an absurdly team friendly deal. I'm very skeptical he signs for less than twice that amount, but maybe that's what you have to settle for when you're 32 and the ~8th best starter on the market, even if you're pretty good.

 

Kiley McDaniel had some interesting bits in the Fangraphs FA preview. This especially stood out:

 

Much of the shape of the market will be determined by which teams figure to be the most active. Will the Dodgers try to get over the hump in 2020 by once again going past the luxury tax threshold, and if so, by how much? Will the Yankees (or any other team) go $40 million over threshold at the cost of their first round pick moving down 10 slots? How will the Cubs’ organizational changes manifest in free agency? How will Chaim Bloom approach the payroll and Mookie Betts conundrums the Red Sox are in?

 

One key storyline to keep an eye on is the fact that as many as a dozen teams have general managers with some level of heat under their seat, while Boston has new leadership and Pittsburgh is still currently looking for its new head. The malaise that marked recent winters has been due in part to the incentives around tanking, but it has also been the result of top executives having slower-burning processes that hadn’t yet faced ownership’s assessment. Now nearly half the league is having uncomfortable internal conversations, or just finished firing their GM, so there appears to be a greater general sense of urgency across front offices. That should lead to a higher level of activity.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah Gibson for something around 2/18 would be a no brainer to me. He’s solid, might get an NL to AL bump.

[Backtobanks]

MLBTR prediction on Shogo Akiyama - Diamondbacks 2 years/$6 million

"A win-now team with ample money to spend probably wouldn’t take on this level of uncertainty, but a team like the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Indians, White Sox or Mariners could view Akiyama as an upside play and take the modest risk."

 

I guess they don't realize we have a black hole in CF since we didn't get mentioned. Even PTR might jump at that contract.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 million for Shogo is don't even think about it just do it territory unless you're convinced he's not a CF. That said, I don't trust MLBTR's market judgment in the best of times, and this is a turbulent FA market.

[Bertz]

3 million for Shogo is don't even think about it just do it territory unless you're convinced he's not a CF. That said, I don't trust MLBTR's market judgment in the best of times, and this is a turbulent FA market.

 

Yeah, I know the middle class of FA's has been hit hard in recent seasons but I think MLBTR way overcorrected this year. For example, based on their estimates we could have an offseason of:

 

- Kyle Gibson

- Howie Kendrick

- Chris Martin

- Shogo Akiyama

- Pedro Strop

 

for $30M. That would be great from a team needs perspective, but that seems very unlikely even in an increasingly tough market.

[Post Count Padder]

For the record, I was by the bullpen during the Phillies series in Philly and asked Strop if he's coming back next season and he aggressively nodded "yes" so there you have it.

[Deeg]

Akiyama already has a far bigger offer than that to re-sign in NPB. Laughable to think he'd accept anything close to that.

[Cubswin11]

Akiyama already has a far bigger offer than that to re-sign in NPB. Laughable to think he'd accept anything close to that.

The report was he had a low to mid teens offer from his team or a different one over there, right? I’d agree though, doubt he jumps to MLB for a few million. I’m guessing it would take $20+ mil to get him here, which I still wouldn’t be entirely against depending on how much money we actually have to spend and other moves.

[Bertz]

Sahadev Sharma has a new article in the Athletic this morning about the Cubs' direction this winter.

 

Basically he says to expect the team to not make any big FA moves, but that they're not broke like they were last year. Payroll should probably be expected to be flat-ish, and the focus will be on reworking the roster in a way that it's not a smoldering crater after 2021 when Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez hit FA. So expect short term FA deals and a number of trades to bring in some youth.

[Andy]

Sahadev Sharma has a new article in the Athletic this morning about the Cubs' direction this winter.

 

Basically he says to expect the team to not make any big FA moves, but that they're not broke like they were last year. Payroll should probably be expected to be flat-ish, and the focus will be on reworking the roster in a way that it's not a smoldering crater after 2021 when Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez hit FA. So expect short term FA deals and a number of trades to bring in some youth.

I just read it and Ricketts' quotes just piss me off more and more every time I see them. He's openly talking about not wanting any more 'windows' and that the Cubs have the financial resources to compete constantly, while also openly saying they're not going to sign good players in free agency. That's literally the only horsefeathering thing a financial advantage matters for, you clown.

[jersey cubs fan]

flat-ish payroll with expanding revenues is just wonderful

[Sammy Sofa]

Sahadev Sharma has a new article in the Athletic this morning about the Cubs' direction this winter.

 

Basically he says to expect the team to not make any big FA moves, but that they're not broke* like they were last year. Payroll should probably be expected to be flat-ish, and the focus will be on reworking the roster in a way that it's not a smoldering crater after 2021 when Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez hit FA. So expect short term FA deals and a number of trades to bring in some youth.

 

*"broke"

[Bertz]

flat-ish payroll with expanding revenues is just wonderful

 

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??"

 

Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline.

[ConstableRabbit]

flat-ish payroll with expanding revenues is just wonderful

 

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??"

 

Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline.

Where does the money from the luxury tax go?

[jersey cubs fan]

flat-ish payroll with expanding revenues is just wonderful

 

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??"

 

Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline.

Where does the money from the luxury tax go?

The Cardinals

[Transmogrified Tiger]

flat-ish payroll with expanding revenues is just wonderful

 

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??"

 

Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline.

Where does the money from the luxury tax go?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/12/03/breaking-down-over-400-million-in-mlb-luxury-tax-penalties-since-2003/#71c399b0541a

 

What’s important to note is these penalties are not part of revenue sharing. So, it’s not like this money goes back to the owners. Instead, the vast majority makes its way to the players in form of benefits. Here’s where the money goes as defined in the current labor agreement between MLB and the players:

 

- The first $2,375,400 of proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be used to fund benefits to Players, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

- 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to fund benefits to Players, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

- 25% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be contributed to the Industry Growth Fund and, with accrued interest, used for the purposes set out in Article XXV.

- 25% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to defray the Clubs’ funding obligations arising from the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

 

It's possible that changed in the new CBA, but I'd guess it's similar if not identical.

[Brian]

Getting rid of the luxury tax is what the players should really fight for in the upcoming CBA negotiations, but they'll probably let it get stricter.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

The Luxury Tax is so fun. Owners insist on these punishments for crossing an arbitrary threshold, and now that those punishments are in place the owners cry "what are we supposed to do in the face of these harsh punishments??"

 

Last year's payroll ended at ~240, with the highest LT level starting at 246. This year's limit is 248, so I'd imagine flat-ish means they probably can do 240 to start the year and have a little breathing room for the trade deadline.

Where does the money from the luxury tax go?

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/12/03/breaking-down-over-400-million-in-mlb-luxury-tax-penalties-since-2003/#71c399b0541a

 

What’s important to note is these penalties are not part of revenue sharing. So, it’s not like this money goes back to the owners. Instead, the vast majority makes its way to the players in form of benefits. Here’s where the money goes as defined in the current labor agreement between MLB and the players:

 

- The first $2,375,400 of proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be used to fund benefits to Players, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

- 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to fund benefits to Players, as provided in the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

- 25% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year shall be contributed to the Industry Growth Fund and, with accrued interest, used for the purposes set out in Article XXV.

- 25% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, shall be used to defray the Clubs’ funding obligations arising from the Major League Baseball Players Benefit Plan Agreements.

 

It's possible that changed in the new CBA, but I'd guess it's similar if not identical.

 

So tax proceeds go toward funding benefits that should be funded by the teams already.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's not hard to make this work by using their old dumpster diving strategies (Coghlan, Strop, Arrieta, Rondon, etc) and the org hits on Amaya, Hoerner/Ademan, and an OF (Davis) plus SP (Gallardo, Jensen, McAvene) prospect make moves in 2020.

 

Oh, is that all? Phew; I was worried for a second.

[jersey cubs fan]

I, for one, think the Cubs should trade for a soon to be Cy Young winner that currently sucks.

[jersey cubs fan]

I, for one, think the Cubs should trade for a soon to be Cy Young winner that currently sucks.

 

No no no, that's what Cole is for. I only said Arrieta because they got Hammel and Feldman in FA where they should be shopping for the next Brewers Wade Miley, and in a Cole situation not even that important

I don't know why you would be against trading for a guy who is going to win a Cy Young but right now is pitching horribly for some other team. To me that is crazy.

[Brian]

I, for one, think the Cubs should trade for a soon to be Cy Young winner that currently sucks.

 

only if they throw in a soon to be great set-up man that currently sucks.

[Cubswin11]

I, for one, think the Cubs should trade for a soon to be Cy Young winner that currently sucks.

 

only if they throw in a soon to be great set-up man that currently sucks.

Pivetta and Seranthony seem to fit the mold, let’s do it.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I, for one, think the Cubs should trade for a soon to be Cy Young winner that currently sucks.

 

only if they throw in a soon to be great set-up man that currently sucks.

Pivetta and Seranthony seem to fit the mold, let’s do it.

I like this. Maybe the Phillies could be confused by a large number of meh? Something like Q + Maples + Mekkes + whatever? Nah, didn't think so.