2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

 

only if they throw in a soon to be great set-up man that currently sucks.

Pivetta and Seranthony seem to fit the mold, let’s do it.

I like this. Maybe the Phillies could be confused by a large number of meh? Something like Q + Maples + Mekkes + whatever? Nah, didn't think so.

I’d assume that’s in the ballpark (I was thinking using Q too). Something like Q and some combo of Almora, Mekkes/Maples/Norwood/Underwood types, and a Zack Short type seems more than fair, even if we threw in $1-4 million. We still save money and get two intriguing, controlled and younger pitchers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why are we trading Quintana when making a speculative SP acquisition

[Cubswin11]

Why are we trading Quintana when making a speculative SP acquisition

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why are we trading Quintana when making a speculative SP acquisition

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with.

 

So the thinking is 8-9 million + a promising but unproven pen arm is worth the downgrade in SP certainty. Not sure I'd go that route in particular, but I get it.

[Cubswin11]

Why are we trading Quintana when making a speculative SP acquisition

Saves money to go add other stuff (assuming things are tight), adds a SP who could be as good as Q if they can unlock some things (he’s had elite K numbers as a SP and a 2.8 fWAR year as recently as 2018) and gets us a nice bullpen arm to work with.

 

So the thinking is 8-9 million + a promising but unproven pen arm is worth the downgrade in SP certainty. Not sure I'd go that route in particular, but I get it.

Yeah, it obviously isn’t my preferred route. Keep the more certain and probably better SP in 2020 to try and win and fill the holes with money/other trades. But if we can’t spend/aren’t really gonna try in 2020/have to maneuver with money to add it’s a move I could get behind and understand that helps us this year and in the future.

[Bertz]

So if we're doing a whole "retool not rebuild" thing, what are the potential options? I see five...am I missing any?

 

1. Trade Willson

2. Trade Q

3. Trade Schwarber

4. Trade Heyward

5. Trade KB

 

I think #1 is clearly the most attractive, as doing a whole Willson/Grandal swap is something that would be worth considering even with unlimited payroll. 2 & 3 don't move the needle that much, but turning those guys into long term assets and then backfilling with FAs fits the idea.

 

#4 is by far the least likely, but I wonder if there might be something there. Heyward is owed 4/86, and is probably worth ~half of that? Could we trade him, concentrate the money eaten into 2020, and be mostly done with him in 2021 and beyond? Doubtful, but not totally outrageous.

 

I know people hate #5, but the fact that it keeps coming up has got to mean something. He would clearly return the most in trade, his salary could be reinvested into a meaningful replacement, and there are a number of 3B options on the market at varying levels. If trading KB gets them something like Jo Adell via trade and Zack Wheeler via salary I understand why they would explore it.

[David]

So if we're doing a whole "retool not rebuild" thing, what are the potential options? I see five...am I missing any?

 

1. Trade Willson

2. Trade Q

3. Trade Schwarber

4. Trade Heyward

5. Trade KB

 

I think #1 is clearly the most attractive, as doing a whole Willson/Grandal swap is something that would be worth considering even with unlimited payroll. 2 & 3 don't move the needle that much, but turning those guys into long term assets and then backfilling with FAs fits the idea.

 

#4 is by far the least likely, but I wonder if there might be something there. Heyward is owed 4/86, and is probably worth ~half of that? Could we trade him, concentrate the money eaten into 2020, and be mostly done with him in 2021 and beyond? Doubtful, but not totally outrageous.

 

I know people hate #5, but the fact that it keeps coming up has got to mean something. He would clearly return the most in trade, his salary could be reinvested into a meaningful replacement, and there are a number of 3B options on the market at varying levels. If trading KB gets them something like Jo Adell via trade and Zack Wheeler via salary I understand why they would explore it.

 

Some comments and/or questions:

 

- Has anyone suggested rebuild? Those people are nuts

- Don't *need* Grandal for a Contreras swap to work since the reason move Contreras is defense and catcher defense is cheap because because, but yeah he's the dream

- I think 3 and 5 are by far the least likely as cheap and established middle of the order OFer (one of just two-three productive LHHs on the roster IIRC) and an MVP candidate are not players this team's in a position to move. Sure they need a lot of luck for 4 to happen but at least it's something they probably want to do

- Bryant keeps coming up because fans are gullible and the owners control the narrative. Giving any credence to it is a waste of time and if it happens the Cubs deserve to go right back to the losing nobodies they loved being

- Jo Adell is a fun prospect but swapping out Kris Bryant for him and another pre-injured FA pitcher is grosser than gross. Adell can only dream of being the player Bryant is, which says more about how good Bryant is than anything about Adell

 

This is the most I've ever agreed with a post of yours. It also doesn't read like an insane person wrote it. I'm going to have to give you a like, damn it.

[Deeg]

Trading Bryant could be a great move, it could be a terrible move - it all depends on what you get back. And despite the fact that no one is ever so sure they know exactly what's going to happen as fans posting on a message board, no one knows what the return would be at this point.

[Backtobanks]

So if we're doing a whole "retool not rebuild" thing, what are the potential options? I see five...am I missing any?

 

1. Trade Willson

2. Trade Q

3. Trade Schwarber

4. Trade Heyward

5. Trade KB

 

I think #1 is clearly the most attractive, as doing a whole Willson/Grandal swap is something that would be worth considering even with unlimited payroll. 2 & 3 don't move the needle that much, but turning those guys into long term assets and then backfilling with FAs fits the idea.

 

#4 is by far the least likely, but I wonder if there might be something there. Heyward is owed 4/86, and is probably worth ~half of that? Could we trade him, concentrate the money eaten into 2020, and be mostly done with him in 2021 and beyond? Doubtful, but not totally outrageous.

 

I know people hate #5, but the fact that it keeps coming up has got to mean something. He would clearly return the most in trade, his salary could be reinvested into a meaningful replacement, and there are a number of 3B options on the market at varying levels. If trading KB gets them something like Jo Adell via trade and Zack Wheeler via salary I understand why they would explore it.

 

One that I think your missing is trading Chatwood. He had a great season last year, but there are a lot of teams that need SP and wouldn't mind the $13 million salary. I don't see the Cubs in on Grandal (even with a a Willson trade) because of the cost. The Cubs don't have the money to blow it all on one player, especially when we already have strength at C. Trading Q doesn't make too much sense because it adds one more hole to fill. You're right about #4 - nobody is taking on that contract. As for #3 and #5, I don't think we can get equal value back.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So if we're doing a whole "retool not rebuild" thing, what are the potential options? I see five...am I missing any?

 

1. Trade Willson

2. Trade Q

3. Trade Schwarber

4. Trade Heyward

5. Trade KB

 

I think #1 is clearly the most attractive, as doing a whole Willson/Grandal swap is something that would be worth considering even with unlimited payroll. 2 & 3 don't move the needle that much, but turning those guys into long term assets and then backfilling with FAs fits the idea.

 

#4 is by far the least likely, but I wonder if there might be something there. Heyward is owed 4/86, and is probably worth ~half of that? Could we trade him, concentrate the money eaten into 2020, and be mostly done with him in 2021 and beyond? Doubtful, but not totally outrageous.

 

I know people hate #5, but the fact that it keeps coming up has got to mean something. He would clearly return the most in trade, his salary could be reinvested into a meaningful replacement, and there are a number of 3B options on the market at varying levels. If trading KB gets them something like Jo Adell via trade and Zack Wheeler via salary I understand why they would explore it.

 

One that I think your missing is trading Chatwood. He had a great season last year, but there are a lot of teams that need SP and wouldn't mind the $13 million salary. I don't see the Cubs in on Grandal (even with a a Willson trade) because of the cost. The Cubs don't have the money to blow it all on one player, especially when we already have strength at C. Trading Q doesn't make too much sense because it adds one more hole to fill. You're right about #4 - nobody is taking on that contract. As for #3 and #5, I don't think we can get equal value back.

 

I disagree, although would hope you are right. That being, I think all teams would mind Chatwood's $13 million salary, even on just a one year deal.

[Bertz]

One that I think your missing is trading Chatwood. He had a great season last year, but there are a lot of teams that need SP and wouldn't mind the $13 million salary

 

While I agree that a Chatwood trade is fairly likely, I didn't include him because I think he's in a different category. The five I mentioned were all make "2020 worse to improve 2021 and beyond" type moves. Chatwood's on a 1 year deal that at best is right at his market value, so it'd be more of an "I have other ways I'd rather spend $13M" move. Reasonable and likely basically regardless of what the offseason plan is.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The more I try to think through things, the more it feels like CF ends up being tricky/important to doing the offseason well. Just running down the options:

 

- Heyward's bat would be fine there if his defense were great, but he's north of 30 now and UZR found him below average in his first extended look in CF

- Happ represents the best chance to get everything you want(good bat & D, young, not expensive), but there's question marks about how much we can count on both the offense and defense

- Almora is arbitration eligible

- Kemp and Hoerner could probably play some CF in a pinch but I don't think you really consider them there in a roster-building sense

- There's a couple options that might be decent options from a productivity and cost sense, but they make the team older and with that also carry some performance risk. Shogo, Marte, and Gardner come to mind

- The rest of the options that might be desirable are either no chance to be available(your Springers & Acunas), or there's folks with both productivity and cost questions that make it hard to tell how attractive they are(Margot? Kingery? Bradley?)

 

Just typing that out is almost enough to make me want to get a defense-first backup for cheap, give Happ the keys and then use the resources elsewhere. That could have the consequence of limiting playing time for one or more of Heyward, Bote, Hoerner, but there are worse problems to have.

[Backtobanks]

Our offseason would be so much easier if we could count on Happ to be a semi-solid option in CF for the whole season, but I'm not sure we can count on him and still be serious contenders.

[Sammy Sofa]

Our offseason would be so much easier if we could count on Happ to be a semi-solid option in CF for the whole season, but I'm not sure we can count on him and still be serious contenders.

 

Why would the Cubs contending hinge on how much time Happ gets in CF?

[ConstableRabbit]

Our offseason would be so much easier if we could count on Happ to be a semi-solid option in CF for the whole season, but I'm not sure we can count on him and still be serious contenders.

 

Why would the Cubs contending hinge on how much time Happ gets in CF?

If he's a negative fWAR guy like our everyday CF last season, it would definitely hurt the team.

 

With that said, as one of the biggest Happ fans on this board... FREE HAPP!

[Sammy Sofa]

Our offseason would be so much easier if we could count on Happ to be a semi-solid option in CF for the whole season, but I'm not sure we can count on him and still be serious contenders.

 

Why would the Cubs contending hinge on how much time Happ gets in CF?

If he's a negative fWAR guy like our everyday CF last season, it would definitely hurt the team.

 

Well, yeah, obviously. But that guy is basically saying the Cubs can't be serious contenders, like the season hangs on Happ. Like, Almora was hideous, but he's not THE reason why the Cubs blew it. Not even close.

[Cubswin11]

 

Why would the Cubs contending hinge on how much time Happ gets in CF?

If he's a negative fWAR guy like our everyday CF last season, it would definitely hurt the team.

 

Well, yeah, obviously. But that guy is basically saying the Cubs can't be serious contenders, like the season hangs on Happ. Like, Almora was hideous, but he's not THE reason why the Cubs blew it. Not even close.

Strong disagree. Almora and the depth and deployment of it last year was a huge reason things failed. You got -2 WAR out of Almora, Descalso, Zagunis and Cargo in ~600 PAs. Getting even .5-1.5 WAR production out each player in those 4 spots of that depth could’ve been the difference.

[Cubswin11]

Our offseason would be so much easier if we could count on Happ to be a semi-solid option in CF for the whole season, but I'm not sure we can count on him and still be serious contenders.

Happ is only 25, he’s played 3 seasons in MLB and been a 1.5 WAR or better player in every season, he has a career 112 wRC+ and .816 OPS, he’s rated at +3, -7, +1 in CF in his three years by DRS and his UZR numbers were good in 2 of 3 years too so he’s probably playable out there (especially if we embrace shifting more), he cut down his K rate by 10% in 2019 vs 2018 (granted it was ~160 PAs) when we knew he was Iowa to work on and change things to fix the K problems. I don’t know how you can’t look at him as a “semi-solid option” for CF, especially if he’s not run out there every day and is in some sort of rotation with Heyward, Nico, TBD FA/Trade option (even if it’s a Pillar type) to protect him from bad matchups/splits.

 

Now I’d get why you’d want to move away from him given his profile is similar to a lot of the team and maybe you want to diversify the offense with more contact/less Ks/etc. but he’s a “solid option” for CF in 2020 if he’s around.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

also, and this should be apparent because it was literally said before someone made the unserious argument, the benefit of Happ is not only 'oh he could be good', it's that he can be good and now you have fewer holes to fill. Happ might be better than the alternatives in a vacuum, but even if he's not, it's more likely Happ + [thing you use money on] is greater than a CF acquisition + [thing you use less money on]

[Sammy Sofa]

If he's a negative fWAR guy like our everyday CF last season, it would definitely hurt the team.

 

Well, yeah, obviously. But that guy is basically saying the Cubs can't be serious contenders, like the season hangs on Happ. Like, Almora was hideous, but he's not THE reason why the Cubs blew it. Not even close.

Strong disagree. Almora and the depth and deployment of it last year was a huge reason things failed. You got -2 WAR out of Almora, Descalso, Zagunis and Cargo in ~600 PAs. Getting even .5-1.5 WAR production out each player in those 4 spots of that depth could’ve been the difference.

 

OK, but we were talking about someone weirdly acting like one dude in CF not sucking is apparently the difference between the Cubs being competitive, and not a collection of turds.

 

If the argument is, "an entire horsefeathering terrible bench can make a team significantly worse," nobody is going to disagree.

[Cubswin11]

 

Well, yeah, obviously. But that guy is basically saying the Cubs can't be serious contenders, like the season hangs on Happ. Like, Almora was hideous, but he's not THE reason why the Cubs blew it. Not even close.

Strong disagree. Almora and the depth and deployment of it last year was a huge reason things failed. You got -2 WAR out of Almora, Descalso, Zagunis and Cargo in ~600 PAs. Getting even .5-1.5 WAR production out each player in those 4 spots of that depth could’ve been the difference.

 

OK, but we were talking about someone weirdly acting like one dude in CF not sucking is apparently the difference between the Cubs being competitive, and not a collection of turds.

Sure, but it could make a big difference. Going from Almora’s -.7 WAR to even just someone who can give 1.5-2 WAR is a pretty substantial improvement and would make a large difference, whether this is Happ or not finding that “semi solid option” for CF is pretty important and a difference. Especially if we’re assuming the roster is not all that flexible, picking up those extra 2-3 wins on the margins for 2-3 bench/role spots could be the difference between low-mid 80 wins again and missing the playoffs and high 80 to low 90 wins and making them.

[Sammy Sofa]

Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

[Brian]

how about we all just agree that it would be cool if the Cubs got positive production out of center field in 2020

[squally1313]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Happ is such a weird dude to try and project. While the talking point was that he was sent to AAA to 'work on his swing', I don't think we can ignore the fact that he was down there for 99 games and essentially was really bad for pretty much all of it. And then after that, it took him going nuclear the last week of the year to get his 2019 MLB numbers looking pretty again...through 9/21, he had a .224/.300/.457 slash line. Obviously you can't ignore that last week, but we're basically talking about one week's worth of incredible baseball as the difference between a lost year and someone who should be our starting center fielder next year.

 

That's a fair point, although I think it's also worth considering it an illustration of how few PA his MLB downturn was if 1 week essentially erased it. We do have ~900 PA before this year of him having an MLB quality bat(especially in CF), so I don't want us to overstate the risk. That is the risk though, Happ is a bit of a wild card, and he hasn't spent so much time in CF that we can be uber-confident in how to peg him defensively either.