2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

From MLBTR: The Baltimore Orioles primary goal for the near-term remains adding as much talent to the organization as possible, primarily in the minor leagues. That said, GM Mike Elias does have a winter checklist in this, his first full offseason as GM (the Orioles hired him on November 16th of last year). Namely, the Orioles will be looking for pitching and a veteran shortstop, per MASNSports’ Roch Kubatko.

 

How about Russell plus a prospect (or 2) for Villar?

I’m all for getting rid of Russell but I hate Villar, he might suck. Plus he’s expensive.

 

He made $1.4 million more than Russell this year. He will probably get a decent raise next year where Russell probably won't though.

Russell is gonna be non-tendered. I’d rather do that and save the money than swap him out for Villar. There’s no extracting value out of him .

[Post Count Padder]

Bleed cubbie blue /sb nation went hog wild on an off-season prediction. I'll just put the link here

 

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/11/7/20951434/sb-nation-offseason-simulation-fake-2020-cubs

 

Lotsa trades and such and I don't totally hate it. Still don't love trading Willy

[PackLandVA]

Fun read, thanks for posting.

[Named After Maddux]

Cubs offseason plan:

Trades:

Willson Contreras, Jose Quintana for Blake Snell, Josh Lowe, Joe Ryan (net cost -$9 million)

 

if we’re targeting a controllable SP for one of our core players I’d be intrigued with looking at the Rays. There’s been reports that C is a top priority this offseason. Snell is on a really solid contract, but is about to start increasing salaries and had an inconsistent year with injuries. I’d take the leap.

 

 

David Bote, Albert Almora, Corey Abbot, Yovanny Cruz for Jon Gray (net cost + $3 million)

 

This feels light. It likely needs Ian Happ instead of Almora, who likely has little value. Maybe a Bote for Kyle Freeland trade would work for both teams.

 

 

Robel Garcia for Nick Pivetta

 

Free Agent Signings: I used Fangraphs crowdsource for contracts except for a few instances. I don’t think Akiyama comes stateside for $3 million a year even with the foot injury.

 

Jason Castro for 2 years/$12 million

Drew Pomeranz for 2 years/$14 million (with 3rd year option at $8 million or $2 million buy-out)

Shogo Akiyama 3 years/$15 million

Pedro Strop for 1 year/$2.5 million

Asdrubal Cabrera 2 years/$12 million

Jarrod Dyson for 1 year/$1.5 million

Total addition of: $23 million

 

Pitching staff:

SP) Hendricks

SP) Darvish

SP) Gray

SP) Snell

SP) Lester

 

RP) Kimbrel

RP) Pomeranz

RP) Wick

RP) Strop

RP) Wieck

RP) Chatwood

RP) Kyle Ryan

RP) Pivetta/Mills/Triple AAA filler

 

Position Players:

2B) Cabrera/Hoerner

3B) Bryant

1B) Rizzo

SS) Baez

C) Caratini/Castro

LF) Schwarber

CF) Akiyama

RF) Heyward

 

B) Castro/Caratini

B) Hoerner/Cabrera

B) Happ

B) Descalso

B) Kemp

B) Dyson

[Named After Maddux]

 

Snell for Contreras seems fun, probably take Brujan over Lowe since I think Lowe ends up at 1B and that's occupado

 

I agree, I think Snell and Contreras is intriguing. The great thing about the Rays is there’s a good amount of non-Franco prospects that are enticing. Brujan, Liberatore, and Baz super exciting.

 

I went with Lowe because Emily Walden had this to say about him in the AZL:

Emily Waldon: You're sneaky, Sally. Since I'm out in Arizona, I'll bite. He's been sound since I got here. I'm a fan of his fluidity. I think it comes from confidence and understanding the development process takes time.

. Also BA described him as likely to stay in CF. But if you’re seeing 1B in his future I get why he’s not as interesting.

 

Ideally, to me, a Contreras trade brings back a starter and a CF or contact oriented 2B. Luis Urias has been interesting as well and I read somewhere that the Padres would view him as available.i don’t know what I think the backbone of a Contreras to SDP deal looks like, but since Gore is off the table, it feels more volume than high impact.

[Cubswin11]

This is a really good article and sums up/overviews things really well.

 

[CubinNY]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

 

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

 

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies. Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

I’d take a Wilson/Blackmon trade.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Rays are an interesting partner, although I would worry they're going to have too heavy a framing emphasis to be a Contreras destination.

 

After reading Sharma's piece about why Contreras could be the big trade, the emphasis on extending the window past 2021 stuck with me, it made me think about how they could reasonably extend that window without compromising this year's goals. For example:

 

 

- Schwarber to San Diego for Margot and Andres Munoz

 

 

Margot is 3 years of control and I'd be optimistic that getting him out of San Diego, shielding him a little, plus entering his prime and his pedigree can make him a regular. San Diego will find it easier to replace Margot's 2019 than it would be to find a player of Schwarber's caliber without paying dollars they need to use elsewhere. Munoz has an 80 fastball and is a late inning reliever if either of his command or control take a step forward, and he's optionable if he needs more seasoning.

 

 

- Bote to Tampa for Yonny Chirinos

 

 

Bote does have significant team control, but it's unlikely to be in an everyday role, plus he's already 27 in April so it's not as if you've got a bunch of improvement/prime years in front of him. Tampa may not be into Contreras but they loooove years of control and their 3B situation was a tire fire. Chirinos gives you someone you can stretch into a rotation role(Chatwood being a valuable piggy back) or a valuable relief option. He's also optionable, although you wouldn't expect that to be necessary.

 

 

- Contreras, Short, and Underwood to Colorado for Gray and Estevez

 

 

The logic for this deal has already been made so I won't repeat it. This doesn't make a huge difference in years of control, but you can only do so much long term planning for pitching and Estevez is a late inning option for several seasons.

 

 

 

- Sign Castellanos for LF. He's a 1:1 Schwarber replacement, and at more years of control. Since he's only 28 they are years of control worth having too.

 

- Sign Asdrubal Cabrera to play 2B, or be the new Bote if Hoerner shows out. Cesar Hernandez works too.

 

- Sign Jason Castro to timeshare with Caratini. Both are more than platoon players but less than outright first division starters, which is a nice luxury in terms of playing matchups and hedging against injury/ineffectiveness.

 

 

Caratini/Castro, Rizzo, Cabrera/Hoerner, Baez, Bryant, Castellanos, Margot/Happ, Heyward

Hendricks, Darvish, Q, Gray, Lester

Kimbrel, Estevez, Wick, Ryan, Chirinos, Chatwood, two of Wieck, Munoz, Mills, Rea, Alzolay, Mekkes, NRI

[Cubswin11]

I’d still be surprised if they prioritized guys who are 2-3+ years away when they have Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Marquez around.

 

Exactly. It's a virtual lock without even knowing who is else is on the table that Contreras over 3 years goes a longer way for them than some unnamed unknown prospects. What are the chances they *actually* get ML impact prospects ready to run roughshod on the league for 6 years? Look how the Samardzija trade turned out for the Cubs and that was landing a guy who ended up one of the best handful prospects in the game right after

 

I think if anyone's throwing an extra player in, probably a pitcher, it's the Rockies. Gray's not the AS (unless he was, I don't know), Contreras is the AS. Gray doesn't play everyday, Contreras plays everyday, Gray has 2 years, Contreras has 3 etc etc

I’d take a Wilson/Blackmon trade.

Absolutely no interest in Blackmon. He’s 33, has about 4/75 left, is basically a DH at this point and has pretty severe home/road splits. Imo, if your able/comfortable taking on that money just sign Castellanos or Moustakas (shift KB to RF) and trade Willy for something else.

[Bertz]

I hadn't thought much about dealing Bote, but it makes a lot of sense. There are at least a dozen teams that can use a guy like him as a starter either at 2b or 3b, and given the contract there's some pretty real value there. The obvious question that raises though, is why consider dealing him given our gaping hole at 2b? I think this bit from Sharma's article gets at why:

 

And as the Cubs try to diversify their offense, replacing Bryant with Bote wouldn’t vibe with that plan. Bote’s two biggest weaknesses are being susceptible to swing-and-miss at the high fastball and chasing breaking balls out of the zone. Bryant swings and misses at 13.1 percent of the high fastballs he sees; Bote is at 21.7 percent (league average is 12.4 percent). Bryant chases 26.3 percent of the breaking balls he sees while Bote chases 36.5 percent (league average is 31.8 percent).

 

Bote in a vacuum is probably a pretty solid everyday option at either 2b or 3b. Given though that the things he sucks most at are the things that half our lineup sucks at, it would be understandable if the team were reticent to hand him the keys to 2b. And if he's not going to get a chance to play everyday, replacing him on the bench with a guy who has a more leverage-able skillset helps win more games in the near term anyway.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I hadn't thought much about dealing Bote, but it makes a lot of sense. There are at least a dozen teams that can use a guy like him as a starter either at 2b or 3b, and given the contract there's some pretty real value there. The obvious question that raises though, is why consider dealing him given our gaping hole at 2b? I think this bit from Sharma's article gets at why:

 

And as the Cubs try to diversify their offense, replacing Bryant with Bote wouldn’t vibe with that plan. Bote’s two biggest weaknesses are being susceptible to swing-and-miss at the high fastball and chasing breaking balls out of the zone. Bryant swings and misses at 13.1 percent of the high fastballs he sees; Bote is at 21.7 percent (league average is 12.4 percent). Bryant chases 26.3 percent of the breaking balls he sees while Bote chases 36.5 percent (league average is 31.8 percent).

 

Bote in a vacuum is probably a pretty solid everyday option at either 2b or 3b. Given though that the things he sucks most at are the things that half our lineup sucks at, it would be understandable if the team were reticent to hand him the keys to 2b. And if he's not going to get a chance to play everyday, replacing him on the bench with a guy who has a more leverage-able skillset helps win more games in the near term anyway.

 

IMO he's more of a defensive stretch at 2B too. I'm fine with him being in a mix that has several options(Hoerner, Descalso, and Kemp from the current roster, for example), but it's tougher to just plant a flag on Bote the 2B.

[Backtobanks]

I'm sticking with my original suggestion:

 

Trade Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.

Trade Chatwood and Bote to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.

 

Extend Quintana and sign a catcher (?), Maybin, Odorizzi, Liriano.

 

Fills all the holes and stays under the luxury tax.

[CubinNY]

I sort of checked out of a lot of Cubs related stuff, but it doesn't seem to me that they are poised to recapture dominance. It seems more like they are trying to hang on to relevance.

[Bertz]

Okay let's try this one:

 

- Contreras for Gray and Estevez

- Bote and stuff (not a ton more I'd imagine) for Keone Kela and Adam Frazier

- Chatwood for as much salary relief as possible (let's assume ~half)

- Sign Shogo Akiyama 4/24

- Sign Chris Martin 2/12

- Sign Travis D'Arnaud 2/10

- Sign Wilmer Flores 1/4

- Sign Billy Hamilton 1/3

 

Lineup: Shogo/KB/Rizzo/Baez/Schwarber/Vic/Nico/Heyward

 

Bench: Happ/Flores/D'Arnaud/Frazier/Hamilton

 

SP: Darvish/Kyle/Q/Gray/Lester

 

RP: Kimbrel/Kela/Martin/Estevez/Ryan/Wick/Iowa Shuttle/Mills

 

I like this team a ton. On the position player side, The defense has gone back to being a strength, the contact ability has improved substantially, and the bench rocks. On the downside, the bottom of the order lacks pop except on days where Happ starts. The pitching staff is more exciting IMO. The rotation's a top 10 unit even with no improvement from Gray. The bullpen is completely reworked and is a huge strength now, with 4 or 5 guys I'd feel comfortable with closing games

 

Salary wise, I have this right at 230. That means it works even if payroll is flat, but the intention is to have enough room to extend Javy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not a big clubhouse cancer person, but Kela has basically gotten multiple rosters to revolt against him. Relievers aren't *that* hard to come by and he's not *that* quality a reliever to be worth it, IMO.

[Post Count Padder]

Isn't d'Arnaud a terrible framer or did I make that up? If we're insisting on trading Willy then plan A has to be Grandal and plan B a Caratini/Jason Castro split. I like Castro quite a bit if we go that route.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

Isn't d'Arnaud a terrible framer or did I make that up? If we're insisting on trading Willy then plan A has to be Grandal and plan B a Caratini/Jason Castro split. I like Castro quite a bit if we go that route.

This isn’t directed to you specifically, but something I’ve been wondering about is if an electronic strike zone is maybe only two years away, are we all worrying too much about Wilson’s framing ability?

[squally1313]

Isn't d'Arnaud a terrible framer or did I make that up? If we're insisting on trading Willy then plan A has to be Grandal and plan B a Caratini/Jason Castro split. I like Castro quite a bit if we go that route.

This isn’t directed to you specifically, but something I’ve been wondering about is if an electronic strike zone is maybe only two years away, are we all worrying too much about Wilson’s framing ability?

Even if it were only two years away (which is wildly optimistic), we have Contreras under team control for three more years, and then you'd be looking at a 31 year old catcher entering free agency. Even if Contreras ends up riding out these three years with the Cubs, I'd have serious questions about bringing him back at age 31, regardless of what's going on with the zone. So basically, you'd be looking at maybe possibly one year of cheap Contreras and an electric zone. Not really worth factoring in the discussion.

[Bertz]

Isn't d'Arnaud a terrible framer or did I make that up? If we're insisting on trading Willy then plan A has to be Grandal and plan B a Caratini/Jason Castro split. I like Castro quite a bit if we go that route.

 

No, he's a little above average at framing (he was great ~5 years ago but I think the league has caught up to him). I like D'Arnaud more than Castro primarily because of contact ability, but both of them (as well as Yan Gomes) live in a similar space in terms of total overall value.

[Cubswin11]

Don’t know exactly what other parts would have to be moved either way but Canha and/or Profar coming in and Schwarbs going out I think could make some sense.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I know Canha technically attempts to play some CF, but i’m not sure he’s an appreciably different player from Schwarber at this point. That isn’t bad but I don’t see what swapping them 1 for 1 accomplishes.

[Cubswin11]

Schwarbs will make $2-3 million more than both this year. I wouldn’t go out of my way to make that move but in a scenario where let’s say we trade Willy and want to get Grandal but need to shed a little more money, trading Schwarbs for one of those two (plus another thing or two, like a cheap controlled pitcher) would be an okay way to back fill the roster, imo.

[Cubswin11]

Schwarbs will make $2-3 million more than both this year. I wouldn’t go out of my way to make that move but in a scenario where let’s say we trade Willy and want to get Grandal but need to shed a little more money, trading Schwarbs for one of those two (plus another thing or two) would be an okay way to back fill the roster, imo.

 

Looking to save $2-3 million by trading a top 5 hitter in your WS contending lineup right off his best run as a ML hitter and entering his age 27 season seems nuts. If trading Contreras and only adding Grandal somehow stretches The Budget so much then this is already fubar so maybe go ahead, blow it up, and skip Grandal

I mean I think there’s an argument Canha, Grandal, + stuff from Willy trade (Gray/Estevez, Rays package of names, etc) and another piece from the Schwarbs/OAK trade gives us a better team (not only this year but 2021 and on) vs just Willy, Schwarbs and like Chris Martin and Howie Kendrick or something.

[Cubswin11]

It's a pipedream but some teams I think could have interest in Heyward's last 3 years, maybe if they can maybe get it for 3/48 or less instead of 3/63:

 

Indians - Currently have one starting OF and a pool of talented but wayward yoots, 3/63 i a couple million more than their largest FA contract IIRC, still want to contend so looks like they're making trades to reshuffle payroll rather than bowing out

Royals - Fills Gordon's role, they have contracts (Kennedy, Duffy?...Kennedy) that the Cubs could help out with

Toronto - Weak OF, really young team with talent where he could be that Veteran Presence, pretty much a theme...I'm liking this early offseason's sudden appreciation for Veteran Presence thanks Nats

Miami - Supposedly they're interested in Castellanos which means they're willing to spend on a Veteran Presence but they'd have to really overpay for Castellanos

Philly - They'd be starting probably the best 3 non-Trout OF propsects of the 2000s so there's that, have the money

Angels - Have the money, really want to win but will need to get creative outside of their allout pursuit of Cole

Giants - Also have the money, a pretty empty OF, prospects are a couple years away...

 

They can market Heyward to contenders and rebuilding teams alike as a still pretty young former league star coming off two years moving in the right direction offensively who is also great for the clubhouse in many ways (conditioning, on and off field leadership, good guy)...He can be a bridge guy to MiL prospects for teams like the Giants and Royals...bring playoff experience to teams like the Angels and Blue Jays who probably want to get there soon...Eat a little money, maybe throw in a lottery ticket bat or two from the lower minors (Roederer, Pinango, Morel, Morel...), be willing to take back someone who seems like a wreck probably....Do something cool, Cubs!

Heyward has 4/96 left plus a partial NTC (think his 10/5 rights kick in next year so he’ll have a full NTC then). He’s probably not moveable short of eating a ton of money, giving up players/prospects we don’t want to or taking on another bad deal (which idk if that’s out there, Upton, Price, Samardzija, Cueto maybe? not familiar with their contracts entirely).

[Cubswin11]

Heyward has 4/96 left plus a partial NTC (think his 10/5 rights kick in next year so he’ll have a full NTC then). He’s probably not moveable short of eating a ton of money, giving up players/prospects we don’t want to or taking on another bad deal (which idk if that’s out there, Upton, Price, Samardzija, Cueto maybe? not familiar with their contracts entirely).

 

I think it's 4/86 but still, wow I can't read good. I don't think that's insane unmovable either but to get it wrong is not a good look....Get it down to 4/60 or lower

It’s 4/96 (23.5 this year and next, 24.5 the final 2).

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/jason-heyward-7231/