2020 roster

[squally1313]

Both good points. I just don't really trust any of our starting options outside of Yu, Hendricks, and Quintana, and I'm not a big fan of getting rid of one of them when there is still at least one hole to fill. I think Segura's value would take a hit moving from short over to second, and I think that production can be almost replicated cheaply by internal options. If we're trading away someone like Quintana, I'd hope it clears up money to go after someone more attractive than Jean Segura.

[Backtobanks]

I don't understand the discussion about trading Quintana since it would be opening another hole to fill. We already need one SP and time seems to be catching up with Lester, so we don't need more uncertainty in the rotation. I still believe we need to market Chatwood as a SP to those teams that are looking for rotation help.

[Cubswin11]

I don't understand the discussion about trading Quintana since it would be opening another hole to fill. We already need one SP and time seems to be catching up with Lester, so we don't need more uncertainty in the rotation. I still believe we need to market Chatwood as a SP to those teams that are looking for rotation help.

If I had my choice I’d keep him. But hearing some of the things so far from Theo and Co., we clearly aren’t going all in this year. He’s a 30/31 year old pitcher this year on an expiring deal who probably isn’t a guarantee to get a QO. 1 year ago he only had a 1.7 WAR year and doesn’t have exceptional stuff, if you could turn him in to some stuff that could project to be as good as him this year and still be controlled beyond and not really affect money this year I think it’s worthwhile to explore or if you can do a move to save money this year and still add talent as valuable.

[Backtobanks]

I don't understand the discussion about trading Quintana since it would be opening another hole to fill. We already need one SP and time seems to be catching up with Lester, so we don't need more uncertainty in the rotation. I still believe we need to market Chatwood as a SP to those teams that are looking for rotation help.

 

The contract situation is nice but he's put up 4.7 rWAR in 78 starts with the Cubs. The only real certainty for a WS contender, and since he's a pitcher it's not like the most certain certainty, is that he'll throw alot of innings. Personally I'm willing to trade some of that certainty on the pitching staff (Darvish, Hendricks, Lester aren't major 2020 injury risks on paper) for depth and possibly higher upside pickups, especially if in a roundabout way it improves the position group offense and defense

 

I still think all of this trade talk (Contreras, Quintana, Schwarber, Bryant, etc.) had better bring back immediate help for 2020-2021 and not just prospects with upsides.

[Bertz]

I don't understand the discussion about trading Quintana since it would be opening another hole to fill. We already need one SP and time seems to be catching up with Lester, so we don't need more uncertainty in the rotation. I still believe we need to market Chatwood as a SP to those teams that are looking for rotation help.

 

I actually mostly agree with the bold. There are particular examples that make sense (TT's Dinelson Lamet hypothetical for instance), but broadly I think Q is in the Schwarber zone where he has surplus value but not a horsefeathers-load and so you're unlikely to net enough future value to offset the 2020 dropoff. And his salary is in a weird spot where $11M doesn't buy you *that* much. It's like you could probably, for example, do Q to the Phillies for Seranthony Dominguez and backfill Q with a Kyle Gibson...but is that actually an upgrade? Or are we just rearranging deck chairs?

[Derwood]

Every time I open this thread, Tom is the most recent person to post.

[squally1313]

I still think all of this trade talk (Contreras, Quintana, Schwarber, Bryant, etc.) had better bring back immediate help for 2020-2021 and not just prospects with upsides.

 

Any of the first three can bring back 2020 help, the last one is throwing the towel in on 2020-2021 so might as well get the prospects with the upsides

 

That said I'd be happy for returns that reflect the players:

 

Contreras - Someone cheap with a clear skill the 2020 Cubs can use, say CF defense, but clear flaw, say like hitting RHP, limiting their overall game but has 3-4+ WAR potential

 

Quintana - Pitcher outside the injury nexus that can reasonably be expected to put up 1-2 WAR, 2-3 WAR if things go right, and stay healthy under a very team friendly deal in 2020 relative to available cap space when acquired (so possibly pre-arb or first arb)

 

Schwarber - 2020-2021 peak season player under team friendly deal for both of those seasons

 

Bryant - Perrenial MVP candidate in his mid-20s still under pre-FA deals for multiple seasons

 

I'm confused if you are describing the players you want or the actual players themselves. Like Contreras obviously isn't going to give you CF defense, and also I'm not sure anybody who can't hit RHP is going to give you 3-4+ WAR potential. But then the blurb next to Quintana is just a worse version of Quintana, and the ones next to KB and Schwarber are just descriptions of those players.

[squally1313]

 

Any of the first three can bring back 2020 help, the last one is throwing the towel in on 2020-2021 so might as well get the prospects with the upsides

 

That said I'd be happy for returns that reflect the players:

 

Contreras - Someone cheap with a clear skill the 2020 Cubs can use, say CF defense, but clear flaw, say like hitting RHP, limiting their overall game but has 3-4+ WAR potential

 

Quintana - Pitcher outside the injury nexus that can reasonably be expected to put up 1-2 WAR, 2-3 WAR if things go right, and stay healthy under a very team friendly deal in 2020 relative to available cap space when acquired (so possibly pre-arb or first arb)

 

Schwarber - 2020-2021 peak season player under team friendly deal for both of those seasons

 

Bryant - Perrenial MVP candidate in his mid-20s still under pre-FA deals for multiple seasons

 

I'm confused if you are describing the players you want or the actual players themselves. Like Contreras obviously isn't going to give you CF defense, and also I'm not sure anybody who can't hit RHP is going to give you 3-4+ WAR potential. But then the blurb next to Quintana is just a worse version of Quintana, and the ones next to KB and Schwarber are just descriptions of those players.

 

I think Quintana's been more bWAR Quintana than fWAR Quintana as a Cub

 

Well there's no point in getting involved with that type of conversation, but I've always been under the impression that bWAR focuses more on what actually happened, more results based, whereas fWAR is better suited for predicting future performance. For all the talk of the home run surge, his HR/9 went down from 2018 to 2019, and his BABIP shot up. Some of that is his batted ball profile, which didn't go in the right direction, to be far. His LOB% was the worst of his career too.

[squally1313]

Well there's no point in getting involved with that type of conversation, but I've always been under the impression that bWAR focuses more on what actually happened, more results based, whereas fWAR is better suited for predicting future performance. For all the talk of the home run surge, his HR/9 went down from 2018 to 2019, and his BABIP shot up. Some of that is his batted ball profile, which didn't go in the right direction, to be far. His LOB% was the worst of his career too.

 

fWAR is FIP based for pitchers so people treat it as the more predictive WAR, but that's just an assumption. Quintana's been pitching a while now and isn't a FIP beater so now sure it bodes well for him that he kinda sucks by the WAR built around RA/9

 

He had a lower ERA than FIP in 2018. Basically if I'm looking at his rate numbers for 2018 and 2019, especially knowing how the power environment exploded from 2018 to 2019 (1200 more home runs), it's hard for me to trust bWAR when it says Quintana had a better 2018 than 2019. He had bad sequencing luck and the third worst BABIP allowed among qualified pitchers (Lester first, by the way). I think he made steps in the right direction, not that he was going the other way.

[squally1313]

 

His finish to the season pretty much sums up how I feel about Quintana:

 

54.1 IP / 5 HRs / 54 Ks / 11 BBs (oh look everything's fine and then) / 67 H / 5.13 ERA / 37 RS / 28% LDs

 

That's a 5.13/3.14/3.63 performance with a .360 BABIP and a 58.9 LOB%, both of which would be the worst in baseball over the course of the year. If that's what you think is sustainable, sure. But that's a lot of bad luck to me.

[squally1313]

He had a lower ERA than FIP in 2018. Basically if I'm looking at his rate numbers for 2018 and 2019, especially knowing how the power environment exploded from 2018 to 2019 (1200 more home runs), it's hard for me to trust bWAR when it says Quintana had a better 2018 than 2019. He had bad sequencing luck and the third worst BABIP allowed among qualified pitchers (Lester first, by the way). I think he made steps in the right direction, not that he was going the other way.

 

Sure, he also wasn't that good anyway and has throw lot more innings where he didn't beat the FIP and why would that change when the very next year he didn't. It really might just be bad pitches and not bad sequencing...last year was the first year of his career with the four seam averaging below 92.

 

If your LOB percentage spikes to a career low, it's making bad pitches at bad times. Everyone makes bad pitches, and if he was making a lot of them all the time, that percentage wouldn't have gone anywhere because he would have put a ton more guys on. Honestly, do you think he was better in 2018 or 2019?

[Bertz]

When you hear hoofbeats think horses, not Zebras.

There's certainly a chance that in August Jose Quintana suddenly turned into Edwin Jackson. The far more likely explanation is that he's a pitcher that got BABIPed for 6 weeks.

 

In either direction, good or bad, you shouldn't expect a pitcher is going to diverge significantly from their FIP until you have years of evidence. I mean just look at Jon Lester.

[Bertz]

That's a 5.13/3.14/3.63 performance

 

Yeah, that's why I brought it up. It's a nice microcosm of his career - periphs that hang in there to give the presentable or better FIP, an ERA above the FIP, and nothing in there to really believe some force of nature was working against him or anything to get the end result...I think there's worse ways to spend $10.5 million for sure but also don't think he is a slam dunk impact guy for 2020 who must be kept otherwise we're in a hole...More optimistic about Lester making the adjustments

 

Entering 2019 Quintana had a 3.60 ERA and a 3.63 FIP across 1300 innings.

[squally1313]

That's a 5.13/3.14/3.63 performance

 

Yeah, that's why I brought it up. It's a nice microcosm of his career - periphs that hang in there to give the presentable or better FIP, an ERA above the FIP, and nothing in there to really believe some force of nature was working against him or anything to get the end result...I think there's worse ways to spend $10.5 million for sure but also don't think he is a slam dunk impact guy for 2020 who must be kept otherwise we're in a hole...More optimistic about Lester making the adjustments

 

How in the world is having an ERA two runs higher than his FIP be representative of his, or anyone else's, career? A BABIP and a LOB% that would be the worst in baseball..you think that was all his doing? He just suddenly turned into the most hittable pitcher in baseball while also cutting down his HR/FB rate in a season with by far the most home runs of all time?

 

Oh, and your Ted Lilly example...

 

2007: 3.8 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR

2008: 2.9 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR

2009: 3.7 fWAR, 5.0 bWAR

[squally1313]

I mean, we think we just disagree on his ability, and if we disagree on how to properly value players (bWAR vs fWAR), we probably aren't going to come to some sort of middle ground. If you're a FG guy, he was the 26th best pitcher in baseball last year. Over the last two years, he's the 29th best pitcher. The last three years, 24th. Some of that is health and just simply taking the ball every 5th day, but there's a lot of value in that if you're interested in avoiding the Chatwood spot starts or the random AAA fill ins. I don't think there's any way we improve that spot for 2020, outside of trading actual value elsewhere.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, it's not some great mystery what the issue has been with Quintana when he's off: he gives up too many dongs, especially over the last 3 seasons. That's really the only problem; he's been pretty much the same consistent pitcher otherwise. It's unfortunate that he's pitching in the juiced ball environment, because it really exacerbated his one big flaw as a pitcher.

[Cubswin11]

Seems to have some decent zip on that FB/cutter and commands it well in those few clips and shows a decent change/split/sinker as well (hard to tell exactly what that is but it seems to be one of those and he strikes a guy out on whatever it is at the 18-20 second mark). His delivery and motion is a bit funky too, probably plays up out of the pen.

[Tryptamine]

Playing the Asian market is interesting. If they did something crazy like Akiyama,Tsutsugo and Kwang-Hyun, they wont, they could potentially fill 3 starter slots for between 15-20m. Definitely a lot of bang for your buck there.

[The SABR Gamer]

lol I feel like Tom is doing an especially bad job of reading comprehension in this thread. Every response is just him repeating his incorrect analysis and misunderstanding the rebuttals that contradict him.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, that was certainly a response.

[Cubswin11]

Alright I'm bored on a Saturday, given some of the recent discussions here's another go at a mock offseason.

 

FA Signings:

 

- Akiyama, 3/15 is the rumor so lets call it like 4/22

- Claim/sign Matt Duffy, if he has to be signed he'll be cheap and maybe even only take a minor league deal

- Whoever between Robinson Chirinos, Jason Castro and Russell Martin, probably takes 2 years and $9 mil on the low side and $14 mil on the high side

- Bring Strop back on a cheap 1 year deal for like $2 million with incentives and he gets the first few months to show it was health issues last year or else he's cut

- Do the minor league deal with Morrow

 

 

Trades:

 

- Q, Bote and Underwood for Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez

- Contreras, Corey Abbott and Almora for Jon Gray, Carlos Estevez and a prospect

 

26 man roster:

 

Position Players:

 

1. Vic C

2. Rizzo 1B

3. Segura 2B

4. Javy SS

5. KB 3B

6. Schwarbs LF

8. Akiyama CF

9. Heyward RF

10. Happ IF/OF

11. Descalso or Kemp (they get until Memorial Day or so until Nico comes back up)

12. Duffy IF

13. Backup C

 

Pitchers:

1. Lester

2. Hendricks

3. Yu

4. Gray

5. Mills (he's out of options so gets first crack)

6. Chatwood

7. Kimbrel

8. Wick

9. Estevez

10. Dominguez

11. Wieck

12. Ryan

13. Strop

 

The offense gets more contact, the Duffy add helps keep Nico down to refine things and work on playing the OF/CF and they can play service time games if they want. The SP depth is pretty deep with Chatwood, Adbert, Cotton, Rea as the next guys up, the bullpen adds two solid arms. It's not a sexy offseason but I think it makes the team better and offense more diverse (contact issues are certainly addressed) without really punting, doesn't really add all that much money for this year and Segura moving forward isn't a crazy deal and the rotation looks to be solid as Hendricks, Yu and Gray are the new anchors.

[Backtobanks]

Alright I'm bored on a Saturday, given some of the recent discussions here's another go at a mock offseason.

 

FA Signings:

 

- Akiyama, 3/15 is the rumor so lets call it like 4/22

- Claim/sign Matt Duffy, if he has to be signed he'll be cheap and maybe even only take a minor league deal

- Whoever between Robinson Chirinos, Jason Castro and Russell Martin, probably takes 2 years and $9 mil on the low side and $14 mil on the high side

- Bring Strop back on a cheap 1 year deal for like $2 million with incentives and he gets the first few months to show it was health issues last year or else he's cut

- Do the minor league deal with Morrow

 

 

Trades:

 

- Q, Bote and Underwood for Jean Segura and Seranthony Dominguez

- Contreras, Corey Abbott and Almora for Jon Gray, Carlos Estevez and a prospect

 

26 man roster:

 

Position Players:

 

1. Vic C

2. Rizzo 1B

3. Segura 2B

4. Javy SS

5. KB 3B

6. Schwarbs LF

8. Akiyama CF

9. Heyward RF

10. Happ IF/OF

11. Descalso or Kemp (they get until Memorial Day or so until Nico comes back up)

12. Duffy IF

13. Backup C

 

Pitchers:

1. Lester

2. Hendricks

3. Yu

4. Gray

5. Mills (he's out of options so gets first crack)

6. Chatwood

7. Kimbrel

8. Wick

9. Estevez

10. Dominguez

11. Wieck

12. Ryan

13. Strop

 

The offense gets more contact, the Duffy add helps keep Nico down to refine things and work on playing the OF/CF and they can play service time games if they want. The SP depth is pretty deep with Chatwood, Adbert, Cotton, Rea as the next guys up, the bullpen adds two solid arms. It's not a sexy offseason but I think it makes the team better and offense more diverse (contact issues are certainly addressed) without really punting, doesn't really add all that much money for this year and Segura moving forward isn't a crazy deal and the rotation looks to be solid as Hendricks, Yu and Gray are the new anchors.

 

I have trouble believing that the Rockies would give up Gray and Estevez in the same deal. I'm sure they could get better offers from other teams by doing separate trades if they decided they could give up both pitchers.

[Cubswin11]

The Rays were still wanting d’Arnaud back and in on him as early as today before he signed with the Braves. According to MLBTR. It’s been mentioned before but the Rays seem to have a lot of combinations of guys that make sense for us in a Willy trade and now their top FA target is gone.

[Clem Fandango]

The Rays were still wanting d’Arnaud back and in on him as early as today before he signed with the Braves. According to MLBTR. It’s been mentioned before but the Rays seem to have a lot of combinations of guys that make sense for us in a Willy trade and now their top FA target is gone.

 

Apparently the M's are shopping Narvaez now, too, so Willy isn't the only offense forward catcher on the market anymore.

[Cubswin11]

Welp, so much for that. God damn it.