The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread AKA The Rickettssss take a dump on EVERYTHING

[Cubswin11]

Pretty meh on bringing back Hamels. Great pitcher but

 

Speaking of dumpster diving FA pitchers - thoughts on Drew Pomeranz?

 

absolutely not

I don’t even think I’d be interested in a minor league deal with him

[Cubswin11]

I thought he was really looking like the bum version again for quite a few of his final starts and got pretty lucky.

His final 2 starts he went 13IP 8H 3ER 1HR 4BB 15K and then pitched well in the WC game. His third to last start vs the Arizona AAA team was his only truly awful start looking at the game logs. That final nats start wasn’t great either but I think the game got delayed in the middle and he came back out? And I remember that final Reds game he gave up a bunch of cheap hits but the final line was good. (Those 3 specific games with his final 2 line were his final 5 starts).

 

He gave up 3 or fewer runs in 11 of 12 starts and 2 or less in 10 of 12, he also walked 3 batters or less in 11 of 12 and 2 or less in 10 of 12. His velocity stayed pretty consistent over all 12 starts. His FB velo was above his 12 game average in 2 of his final 4 starts, including over it in his final one and within .3 and .6 MPH in 2 of the other 4 so he didn’t really “fade” velo wise.

 

I just think there’s enough there to bring him back and expect a productive pitcher and it’s only one year.

[Sammy Sofa]

What can I tell you? That September/October FIP/xFIP doesn't fill me with confidence. I think the likely optimum outcome if they bring him back is that he's a serviceable back of the rotation starter with scattered moments of awesomeness and terribleness. He'll likely be at least worth spitting distance of what he'd get paid, so whatever. I just think it's very unlikely he's anything more than Just a Guy at best next season.

[Tim]

A slightly different take on a previous offseason post:

 

1) Sign Harper

2) re-up Hamels, Quintana & Strop

3) Shoot Duensing & Chatwood to the moon

4) Resign Chavez

5) Trade Happ + Russell + Kintzler for Pivetta + Neris after Philly whiffs on both Harper and Machado

6) Sign Asdrubal Cabrera

 

 

On the trade...

 

I read this blurb over at Fangraphs today:

 

The Phillies have a high payroll ceiling and you could argue they’re just a year or two behind the Braves in the same process. That said, they’ve indicated they won’t spend wildly this offseason, and all but two players in the whole organization are reportedly available in the right deal, so most would like to have a little more certainty about the specific direction.

 

They've really struggled to get production from their OF and SS. If they miss (or don't play) on Machado/Harper, then they need to fill those holes with players who can stay there for at least a few years. I think their pitchers are undervalued somewhat as Philly literally had the worst defensive runs saved ever. Pivetta shouldn't be outrageously expensive after putting up era's of 6.02 and 4.77 in his first two years. But I think he's got a much better level of performance coming ahead, especially going from the worst defense in years to a pretty good one with the Cubs.

 

Lineup:

2B) Zobrist

3B) Bryant

RF) Harper

SS) Baez

1B) Rizzo

C) Contreras

LF) Schwarber

CF) Heyward

 

Bench: Almora/Caratini/Cabrera/Happ/La Stella

 

SP: Darvish/Lester/Hamels/Hendricks/Quintana/Pivetta

Swing: Smyly/Monty

RP: Morrow/Strop/Edwards/Cishek/Neris/Chavez/Morgan

[snoodmonger]

favorite memory of the Bobby Wilson era?

 

I guess right now when I'm learning he exists.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if we pretend Hamels’ August never existed(which is silly even if we don’t expect him to repeat that stretch) his September was 4 quality starts, another where he was one out short of a QS, and the one outing he had as a Cub where he got rocked. September Cole Hamels gets a decent amount of coin in free agency, and he flashed in August so you can dream on him as much as any other FA, plus the commitment is only one year unlike other FA. I’m not a Hamels enthusiast, so I’m not gonna campaign that he’s an obvious choice(lots of miles, HR prone, rotation already very left handed which could have downsides over a full year), but i also recognize the benefit of locking down the rotation without giving up huge years or trade assets so that the offseason puzzle gets simpler.

[mul21]

A slightly different take on a previous offseason post:

 

1) Sign Harper

2) re-up Hamels, Quintana & Strop

3) Shoot Duensing & Chatwood to the moon

4) Resign Chavez

5) Trade Happ + Russell + Kintzler for Pivetta + Neris after Philly whiffs on both Harper and Machado

6) Sign Asdrubal Cabrera

 

 

On the trade...

 

I read this blurb over at Fangraphs today:

 

The Phillies have a high payroll ceiling and you could argue they’re just a year or two behind the Braves in the same process. That said, they’ve indicated they won’t spend wildly this offseason, and all but two players in the whole organization are reportedly available in the right deal, so most would like to have a little more certainty about the specific direction.

 

They've really struggled to get production from their OF and SS. If they miss (or don't play) on Machado/Harper, then they need to fill those holes with players who can stay there for at least a few years. I think their pitchers are undervalued somewhat as Philly literally had the worst defensive runs saved ever. Pivetta shouldn't be outrageously expensive after putting up era's of 6.02 and 4.77 in his first two years. But I think he's got a much better level of performance coming ahead, especially going from the worst defense in years to a pretty good one with the Cubs.

 

Lineup:

2B) Zobrist

3B) Bryant

RF) Harper

SS) Baez

1B) Rizzo

C) Contreras

LF) Schwarber

CF) Heyward

 

Bench: Almora/Caratini/Cabrera/Happ/La Stella

 

SP: Darvish/Lester/Hamels/Hendricks/Quintana/Pivetta

Swing: Smyly/Monty

RP: Morrow/Strop/Edwards/Cishek/Neris/Chavez/Morgan

 

Didn't you just trade him to the Phillies?

[davell]

I'm going to put this here, because it's very relevant to how we approach the offseason......

 

This is the EXACT way that the Luxury Tax works. Confirmed by Jeff Todd, of MLBTR......

 

Tax begins at 206 in 2019, 208 in 2020, and 210 in 2021.

 

Here's the example I'll use, with us as a 1st time offender for 2019, and he hitting a 260 million payroll.....

 

You're taxed, as follows.....

 

206-226 million-20% tax=4 million

226-246 million-20% tax, plus 12% surtax=6.4 million

246-260 million-20% tax, plus 42.5% surtax=8.75 million

 

Total tax paid is 19.15 million, on top of the payroll.

 

If you stay at that same payroll the following year(2020)

208-228 million-30% tax=6 million

228-248 million-30% tax, plus 12% surcharge= 8.4 million

248-260 million-30% tax, plus 42.5% surcharge=8.7 million

 

Total tax paid is 23.1 million, on top of payroll

 

For 2021, same scenario....

210-230 million-50% tax=10 million

230-250 million-50% tax, plus 12% surcharge=12.4 million

250-260 million=50% tax, plus 42.5% surcharge=18.5 million

 

Total tax paid is 40.9 million over the payroll.

 

Studying this closely, I think that if you get Bryce or Manny, you're pretty much filling in with one year options, to go with them. But, I think even 275 million is possible, as long as you go that route...... Take one true shot. If it works, maybe you even talk yourself into eating the top tax a second time. But, I'd guess the idea is you've got one year to develop guys and get yourself back under the top end. If not even trying to get back under the second part too.

 

I think you could pair Bryce with the best one year pen arm, maybe even two of them, that you could find though...... Keep Hamels on a one deal, add Andrew Miller and one of Cody Allen or Kelvin Herrera, and get Bryce on an extremely long term deal, to help future LT seasons.......

[Cubswin11]

Good stuff Davell and agree. I think they can take one big swing this offseason and go way over, do enough 1 year deals with non-Bryce guys and probably go fully back under 2 years from now. Next year would be tough (nearly impossible) to fully reset but possible to go under the top end and 2 years from now with all of Zobrist, Chatwood, Morrow, Lester, Q, Hamels, etc off the books over the next 2 years it doesn't take a ton of maneuvering to get fully under then (granted there’s arb raises/extensions and talent needed to be replaced but that’s a lot of money shed to still be able to spend on things and stay under) and the penalties for going over for 1 year on the top end and over but not top end in year 2 aren't THAT bad at all.

[Brian]

Q officially picked up, also claimed LHP Jerry Vasto off waivers from the Royals

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Find someone who loves you as much as Theo Epstein loves picking up left handed relievers off waivers

[Brian]

So is the non move so far on Hamels mean they are still deciding what to do?

[Cubswin11]

So is the non move so far on Hamels mean they are still deciding what to do?

Most likely or trying to work out a 2 year deal at less aav

[Brian]

So is the non move so far on Hamels mean they are still deciding what to do?

Most likely or trying to work out a 2 year deal at less aav

 

If his Luxury tax number is really 14 (on the 20 option), I can't see how that would work. Unless they care more about the actual payroll than the LT payroll (or hopefully don't care about either)

[Bertz]

So is the non move so far on Hamels mean they are still deciding what to do?

Most likely or trying to work out a 2 year deal at less aav

 

Ewww I hope not. If the team can't make his salary work straight up in 2019 then just let him go. It's already worrisome that the 2020 Cubs are locked into Lester, Darvish, and Chatwood for a combined $60 million (includes Lester's 2021 buyout). I don't want to add 36 year old Cole Hamels at ~$15m to that.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's already worrisome that the 2020 Cubs are locked into Lester, Darvish, and Chatwood for a combined $60 million (includes Lester's 2021 buyout). I don't want to add 36 year old Cole Hamels at ~$15m to that.

 

It's so horsefeathering gross to see this spelled out like that. This rotation is going to be bordering on being a nightmare at the best of times.

[Brian]

or Yu comes back from the injury plagued season and is a discount

[Cubswin11]

So is the non move so far on Hamels mean they are still deciding what to do?

Most likely or trying to work out a 2 year deal at less aav

 

Ewww I hope not. If the team can't make his salary work straight up in 2019 then just let him go. It's already worrisome that the 2020 Cubs are locked into Lester, Darvish, and Chatwood for a combined $60 million (includes Lester's 2021 buyout). I don't want to add 36 year old Cole Hamels at ~$15m to that.

Eh, if it can save them ~$5 mil on AAV for LT purposes it might be worth it to do like 2/26 on Hamels (assuming the hit is $20 and not $14 like some think, if it is $14 then just exercise the horsefeathering option). If Chatwood is pitching on this team in 2020 it’s because he figured it out, IMO, he’s only making ~$12 mil and if he’s not producing he won’t have a spot. I still have highish hopes for Darvish over the next ~3 years and think he’ll be plenty valuable this year and next ~2. Lester might be awful but we all knew that was likely the case come 2020 on that deal. Hopefully Adbert or someone else internally/through trade is ready to step in by 2020 if needed.

[Bertz]

Most likely or trying to work out a 2 year deal at less aav

 

Ewww I hope not. If the team can't make his salary work straight up in 2019 then just let him go. It's already worrisome that the 2020 Cubs are locked into Lester, Darvish, and Chatwood for a combined $60 million (includes Lester's 2021 buyout). I don't want to add 36 year old Cole Hamels at ~$15m to that.

Eh, if it can save them ~$5 mil on AAV for LT purposes it might be worth it to do like 2/26 on Hamels (assuming the hit is $20 and not $14 like some think, if it is $14 then just exercise the horsefeathering option). If Chatwood is pitching on this team in 2020 it’s because he figured it out, IMO, he’s only making ~$12 mil and if he’s not producing he won’t have a spot. I still have highish hopes for Darvish over the next ~3 years and think he’ll be plenty valuable this year and next ~2. Lester might be awful but we all knew that was likely the case come 2020 on that deal. Hopefully Adbert or someone else internally/through trade is ready to step in by 2020 if needed.

 

If things are so tight they need to extend him just to save $5m, then just let him walk and save the full $20m. I like Hamels for 2019, but he's a luxury. If Theo needs to be captain efficiency this winter to make Bryce work (totally fair, IMO), then the rotation is best addressed via trades and depth and not via money.

 

The problem with the rotation isn't the specific guys, it's being locked into yet another player with significant guaranteed money. We all were drooling about this rotation at this time last year, and now they look...pretty good, I guess? What is this same group of guys going to look like next year? Because they're pitchers, smart money says the answer is almost certainly "worse." Worse probably doesn't mean bad, but it does leave something to be desired. Fulfilling those desires will be that much harder with Cole locked into a rotation slot and PTR's wallet being $15m lighter.

[Cubswin11]

There’s some dumb horsefeathers in here, like thinking Whit Merrifield is a good leadoff option (he’s not, Heyward has a higher career OBP and Whit would project for like our 7th best OBP next year) and it also talks about not going after Harper/Machado. But there’s some interesting tidbits on Iglesias on being good against “power arms” (guys you face in the playoffs) and it might be enough to sway me to really be interested in him now as our prime backup MIF target since he plays really good defense and would give us a “super defense” option with him at SS and Javy at 2B at times.

 

[Cubswin11]

 

Ewww I hope not. If the team can't make his salary work straight up in 2019 then just let him go. It's already worrisome that the 2020 Cubs are locked into Lester, Darvish, and Chatwood for a combined $60 million (includes Lester's 2021 buyout). I don't want to add 36 year old Cole Hamels at ~$15m to that.

Eh, if it can save them ~$5 mil on AAV for LT purposes it might be worth it to do like 2/26 on Hamels (assuming the hit is $20 and not $14 like some think, if it is $14 then just exercise the horsefeathering option). If Chatwood is pitching on this team in 2020 it’s because he figured it out, IMO, he’s only making ~$12 mil and if he’s not producing he won’t have a spot. I still have highish hopes for Darvish over the next ~3 years and think he’ll be plenty valuable this year and next ~2. Lester might be awful but we all knew that was likely the case come 2020 on that deal. Hopefully Adbert or someone else internally/through trade is ready to step in by 2020 if needed.

 

If things are so tight they need to extend him just to save $5m, then just let him walk and save the full $20m. I like Hamels for 2019, but he's a luxury. If Theo needs to be captain efficiency this winter to make Bryce work (totally fair, IMO), then the rotation is best addressed via trades and depth and not via money.

 

The problem with the rotation isn't the specific guys, it's being locked into yet another player with significant guaranteed money. We all were drooling about this rotation at this time last year, and now they look...pretty good, I guess? What is this same group of guys going to look like next year? Because they're pitchers, smart money says the answer is almost certainly "worse." Worse probably doesn't mean bad, but it does leave something to be desired. Fulfilling those desires will be that much harder with Cole locked into a rotation slot and PTR's wallet being $15m lighter.

This is definitely how I lean too, I was more just trying to lay out why maybe they’d be doing a 2 year deal but don’t overly like it either. I guess in the end we just have to trust them but hopefully, imo, the option is just picked up.

[Andy]

Apparently Heyward has opted in, to our shock.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Opt-outs still suck for the team and always will.

[Cubswin11]

Sounds like a create a player

 

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Sounds like a create a player

 

 

 

Guess we are out on Harper!