The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread AKA The Rickettssss take a dump on EVERYTHING

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does anyone have much of an idea of what Texas's opinion of Andrus is right now? I was looking for shortstops with a big enough contract and low enough production that we might be able to get a new SS with no gain in payroll or better by having that be a dumping ground. Andrus is only a year removed from a 4 win season, but he's 30 now, has had a sub-.300 wOBA 4 of the last 6 years playing in Texas, and UZR describes him as more of a capable SS than gold glove caliber. For luxury tax purposes he has a hefty 4/60 left on his deal, does trading several short term contracts for him seem palatable for them? In a perfect world they like Chatwood and/or Russell's potential and they're willing to eat money this year to be done with Andrus' commitment, so you can get something like Chatwood, Kintzler, Duensing, and Russell(combined 25.5 million 2019, 12.67+Russell for 2020) for Andrus and a reliever(4/60+ reliever). That's likely fantasy(and the Rangers don't really have any interesting relievers left anyway), but it's day 1 of the offseason so I can dare to dream.

What is it you don't like about Leclerc?

 

For this exercise/deal, he crosses into 'too good/valuable' territory.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

$20m for Cole Hamels is not smart.

[davell]

I think they like Andrus. He's got another opt out next year too though, maybe they'd want to try and see if they could net something positive on him? He's just one year removed from that type of season..... My guess is it'll take more than just poor contracts to get him....... If for no other reason, than I doubt people look at his deal as a bad contract. Not after one bad season anyway......

 

If you're sending Chatwood, my guess is you'd need to send them Alzolay and maybe even Bote too, just to get them to absorb Chatwood. Might be able to include Russell, instead of Bote, dependent upon whether or not they think he'll straighten himself out.

[Cubswin11]

Does anyone have much of an idea of what Texas's opinion of Andrus is right now? I was looking for shortstops with a big enough contract and low enough production that we might be able to get a new SS with no gain in payroll or better by having that be a dumping ground. Andrus is only a year removed from a 4 win season, but he's 30 now, has had a sub-.300 wOBA 4 of the last 6 years playing in Texas, and UZR describes him as more of a capable SS than gold glove caliber. For luxury tax purposes he has a hefty 4/60 left on his deal, does trading several short term contracts for him seem palatable for them? In a perfect world they like Chatwood and/or Russell's potential and they're willing to eat money this year to be done with Andrus' commitment, so you can get something like Chatwood, Kintzler, Duensing, and Russell(combined 25.5 million 2019, 12.67+Russell for 2020) for Andrus and a reliever(4/60+ reliever). That's likely fantasy(and the Rangers don't really have any interesting relievers left anyway), but it's day 1 of the offseason so I can dare to dream.

What is it you don't like about Leclerc?

Don’t his BB numbers scare you quite a bit? I see you mention him a lot and he had a great year but I’d assume they’d ask for a decent haul back for a guy who’s been Chatwood wild in the past. He’s had 6 stops across the majors and minors since 2015 of at least 15 innings and only in 2 of them he’s had a BB/9 under 5.8 and it was still in the high 3 both times. His career MLB BB/9 is just a little under 6. He’d scare me a ton, he also gives up a lot of flyballs.

[Tim]

Does anyone have much of an idea of what Texas's opinion of Andrus is right now? I was looking for shortstops with a big enough contract and low enough production that we might be able to get a new SS with no gain in payroll or better by having that be a dumping ground. Andrus is only a year removed from a 4 win season, but he's 30 now, has had a sub-.300 wOBA 4 of the last 6 years playing in Texas, and UZR describes him as more of a capable SS than gold glove caliber. For luxury tax purposes he has a hefty 4/60 left on his deal, does trading several short term contracts for him seem palatable for them? In a perfect world they like Chatwood and/or Russell's potential and they're willing to eat money this year to be done with Andrus' commitment, so you can get something like Chatwood, Kintzler, Duensing, and Russell(combined 25.5 million 2019, 12.67+Russell for 2020) for Andrus and a reliever(4/60+ reliever). That's likely fantasy(and the Rangers don't really have any interesting relievers left anyway), but it's day 1 of the offseason so I can dare to dream.

What is it you don't like about Leclerc?

Don’t his BB numbers scare you quite a bit? I see you mention him a lot and he had a great year but I’d assume they’d ask for a decent haul back for a guy who’s been Chatwood wild in the past. He’s had 6 stops across the majors and minors since 2015 of at least 15 innings and only in 2 of them he’s had a BB/9 under 5.8 and it was still in the high 3 both times. His career MLB BB/9 is just a little under 6. He’d scare me a ton, he also gives up a lot of flyballs.

This article is where he first got my attention: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-reliever-season-you-havent-heard-about/

 

Are the walks a concern? Absolutely.

 

But he also has one of the most unique pitches in MLB and five more years of control.

[Cubswin11]

What is it you don't like about Leclerc?

Don’t his BB numbers scare you quite a bit? I see you mention him a lot and he had a great year but I’d assume they’d ask for a decent haul back for a guy who’s been Chatwood wild in the past. He’s had 6 stops across the majors and minors since 2015 of at least 15 innings and only in 2 of them he’s had a BB/9 under 5.8 and it was still in the high 3 both times. His career MLB BB/9 is just a little under 6. He’d scare me a ton, he also gives up a lot of flyballs.

This article is where he first got my attention: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-reliever-season-you-havent-heard-about/

 

Are the walks a concern? Absolutely.

 

But he also has one of the most unique pitches in MLB and five more years of control.

I’d definitely have interest if he would be available just think he would cost a lot and even though it appears he flipped a switch/throws a new pitch/mix the walk past would have me a little hesitant

[Cubswin11]

Kintzler didn’t immediately exercise his option so hopefully he’s actually considering hitting free agency. At least that’s my hope for him not doing it as soon as he could today.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If you're sending Chatwood, my guess is you'd need to send them Alzolay and maybe even Bote too, just to get them to absorb Chatwood. Might be able to include Russell, instead of Bote, dependent upon whether or not they think he'll straighten himself out.

 

The one thing I'd say to this is that part of the narrative here is that Chatwood is a year removed from being a fairly desirable FA SP, and his downturn appears to be a mental block(maybe helped by a change of scenery?) moreso than injury or loss of stuff. He's only 29 on opening day too, so I think you can make the argument his likelihood to rehab value is similar/better to Andrus. I don't expect that to be a universal sentiment, but I bet there's a handful of teams who would believe something close to that. Whether that's the Rangers is the question, because I do think in their position of not being very competitive next year, the idea of freeing up 15 million each in '21-22 is appealing enough to take on a few million bucks in post-prime relievers for 2019.

[Brian]

Kintzler didn’t immediately exercise his option so hopefully he’s actually considering hitting free agency. At least that’s my hope for him not doing it as soon as he could today.

 

Wouldn't the Cubs have to decline their end first?

[Cubswin11]

If you're sending Chatwood, my guess is you'd need to send them Alzolay and maybe even Bote too, just to get them to absorb Chatwood. Might be able to include Russell, instead of Bote, dependent upon whether or not they think he'll straighten himself out.

 

The one thing I'd say to this is that part of the narrative here is that Chatwood is a year removed from being a fairly desirable FA SP, and his downturn appears to be a mental block(maybe helped by a change of scenery?) moreso than injury or loss of stuff. He's only 29 on opening day too, so I think you can make the argument his likelihood to rehab value is similar/better to Andrus. I don't expect that to be a universal sentiment, but I bet there's a handful of teams who would believe something close to that. Whether that's the Rangers is the question, because I do think in their position of not being very competitive next year, the idea of freeing up 15 million each in '21-22 is appealing enough to take on a few million bucks in post-prime relievers for 2019.

Yeah I like Andrus as a target and thought of him as a Chatwood swap guy a while back if the Rangers are going to bottom out. Like you said they get out of more total money and sooner. I’d be willing to include some combination of Adbert, Russell (if they don’t view him as a toxic asset), Almora, Short, relief pitcher like Maples, etc to get him. Andrus gets to stay with eye patch too Who was his hitting coach for his best year.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Kintzler didn’t immediately exercise his option so hopefully he’s actually considering hitting free agency. At least that’s my hope for him not doing it as soon as he could today.

 

Wouldn't the Cubs have to decline their end first?

 

Yeah, the odds of that getting announced out of order are pretty low, even if the decision has hopefully been made by both parties for weeks.

[Cubswin11]

Kintzler didn’t immediately exercise his option so hopefully he’s actually considering hitting free agency. At least that’s my hope for him not doing it as soon as he could today.

 

Wouldn't the Cubs have to decline their end first?

Ah that’s right. Hopefully he’s been notified it’s not picked up and is in his decision making process.

[Banedon]

$20m for Cole Hamels is not smart.

 

It's for a year. Big whoop.

[Cubswin11]

$20m for Cole Hamels is not smart.

 

It's for a year. Big whoop.

Yeah and especially if it’s just a $14 million LT hit. Since I doubt we’d dip our toes in the Kuechel/Corbin/Kershaw waters it’s a no brainer over like Matt Harvey

[Cubswin11]

Mark Gonzales reported in his column today that it’s expected that Kintzler exercises his option once the Cubs decline theirs. God damn it, what a stupid horsefeathering trade

[Sammy Sofa]

$20m for Cole Hamels is not smart.

 

It's for a year. Big whoop.

Yeah and especially if it’s just a $14 million LT hit. Since I doubt we’d dip our toes in the Kuechel/Corbin/Kershaw waters it’s a no brainer over like Matt Harvey

 

Man, if Hamels come back, he is gonna break so many hearts next year.

[Cubswin11]

 

It's for a year. Big whoop.

Yeah and especially if it’s just a $14 million LT hit. Since I doubt we’d dip our toes in the Kuechel/Corbin/Kershaw waters it’s a no brainer over like Matt Harvey

 

Man, if Hamels come back, he is gonna break so many hearts next year.

I obviously don’t expect sub 3 era Hamels. But it seems like he was a good clubhouse guy and he showed real, mostly sustainable things of being a plenty valuable pitcher still (he wasn’t getting crazy BABIP lucky, K and BB numbers were good, velo was good, xFIP and FIP were good). I think he’s plenty capable of being a 3.75-4.00 era starter and somewhere around ~3 WAR (basically something like his 2015 or 16’ seasons) and gives us needed depth with Lester a year older, Darvish coming back and Chatwood not being able to depend on for anything.

 

Again for a $14 mil LT hit, it makes a lot of sense. It’s better than committing multiple years to like Wade Miley or Bucholz after the years they had or dumpster diving on a Harvey, Gio or Lynn etc.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Sammy Sofa]

I look at it more as they're kinda damned if they do/damned if they don't because of what their starting rotation and pitching depth has amounted to at this point. It largely looks like a good option in the sense that most of the options are varying degrees of suck.

[Cubswin11]

I look at it more as they're kinda damned if they do/damned if they don't because of what their starting rotation and pitching depth has amounted to at this point. It largely looks like a good option in the sense that most of the options are varying degrees of suck.

Yeah, I wish we didn’t have to be think we need to. Too many potential question marks in the rotation otherwise (though on a whole I think we ultimately end up with a top ~10 rotation assuming Hamels is back). What guys die off and what guys contribute idk but we need options.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I mean, I doubt it's gonna be The Difference one way or the other. But when you're talking about a 35-year-old, 4.5 FIP guy, you're already dumpster diving, might as well do it in the cheap dumpster.

[Cubswin11]

I mean, I doubt it's gonna be The Difference one way or the other. But when you're talking about a 35-year-old, 4.5 FIP guy, you're already dumpster diving, might as well do it in the cheap dumpster.

Should we just completely ignore and discount his 12 starts here where he was a 3.5 FIP pitcher when there were some real underlying indicators and changes that he wasn’t the 4.5 FIP guy anymore and pitching in Coors Jr had some effect?

 

He’s the best of dumpster options to still be a good to really good pitcher, IMO, and he already proved to be a decent pitcher here for ~1/2 a season. He’s a pitcher and sucks inherently and will probably be a bum but there was enough stuff going on in his time here I think he can carry value.

[Sammy Sofa]

I thought he was really looking like the bum version again for quite a few of his final starts and got pretty lucky.

[imb]

Pretty meh on bringing back Hamels. Great pitcher but

 

Speaking of dumpster diving FA pitchers - thoughts on Drew Pomeranz?

 

absolutely not

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I mean, I doubt it's gonna be The Difference one way or the other. But when you're talking about a 35-year-old, 4.5 FIP guy, you're already dumpster diving, might as well do it in the cheap dumpster.

Should we just completely ignore and discount his 12 starts here where he was a 3.5 FIP pitcher when there were some real underlying indicators and changes that he wasn’t the 4.5 FIP guy anymore and pitching in Coors Jr had some effect?

 

He’s the best of dumpster options to still be a good to really good pitcher, IMO, and he already proved to be a decent pitcher here for ~1/2 a season. He’s a pitcher and sucks inherently and will probably be a bum but there was enough stuff going on in his time here I think he can carry value.

 

I would ignore it, yes, especially since he seemed to be falling apart by the end of it.

 

But three posts is exactly how much I care enough to argue about whether one year of him is a good idea or not. I've made my token protest or whatever.

[Bertz]

I think it's pretty simple: if the Cubs can run a $260m+ payroll they'd be foolish to let Hamels go. He was legitimately great here in Chicago, and the bump in velo and change in pitch mix offer pretty compelling evidence that he was simply a different guy than at the end of his Texas days. There's a lot of Justin Verlander going on there. And it's a one year deal, so even if he is merely fine that's worth it for the depth it provides.

 

Conversely, if the team can't afford both him and Bryce without significant financial maneuvering, then they'd be dumb to hold on to him. While there was a lot of Verlander going on here in Chicago, there was a lot of John Lackey going on at the end of his time in Texas. That was probably just dumb HR/FB luck, but his 2017 was just bad, no luck about it. You can't paint yourself into a corner where you need to clear 10's of millions in salary to afford to do whatever you need to do. I'm personally of the mind that Chatwood et al won't actually be that hard to move, but it's hardly something you can safely count on.