The 2018-2019 Cubs Offseason Rumors & Discussion Thread AKA The Rickettssss take a dump on EVERYTHING

[davell]

275 means they're paying over 300. I've been of the mindset that's where we're headed..... But, this news definitely puts at least a serious question as to whether that's realistic.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

yeah, 275 that's 300 in penalties is functionally a 100 million jump year over year. They have been waiting to go higher than last year and we'll have to see if we get any TV deal specifics soon, but I've been of the mind that 250 is probably on the high end.

[Cubswin11]

275 means they're paying over 300. I've been of the mindset that's where we're headed..... But, this news definitely puts at least a serious question as to whether that's realistic.

Yeah I should’ve added that with this news my ~275 number is in serious doubts about how realistic it is. But that was my expectation up until this news came out (I roughly thought we could do like ~275, ~265, ~250, the next 3 years with expiring contracts and smart structures of new deals). Hopefully it’s just some posturing by the Cubs to get the Rangers to take a contract back or something.

 

And if we are capped well below that, then $8.5 million for Kintzler and Duensing does actually mean something.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Cubswin11

[davell]

Honestly, I suspect any team other than Philly to give Bryce enough years to where he's under 30 for the tax.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Honestly, I suspect any team other than Philly to give Bryce enough years to where he's under 30 for the tax.

 

I was wrong about this last year, but I would be very surprised if the luxury tax number went that low. I think it's a fair bit more likely it exceeds 40 than fails to reach 30.

[Cubswin11]

Honestly, I suspect any team other than Philly to give Bryce enough years to where he's under 30 for the tax.

 

I was wrong about this last year, but I would be very surprised if the luxury tax number went that low. I think it's a fair bit more likely it exceeds 40 than fails to reach 30.

I think he’ll fall between 28 and 35, 40 aav will be tough, imo. But I think he will set the total contract record, which is Stanton’s $325.

[davell]

Outside of Philly, every team that's a true contender for him(I honestly don't think Atlanta will be), will be into the Luxury Tax, in signing him...... Making it even more money than what you're just paying him obviously.....

 

He's 26. And I'd be willing to bet that teams figure the DH WILL be in the NL, in one of the next 2 CBA's...... Which are 3 and 8 years out. So, I can see teams reasoning it out, that it's easier to go the longer term, 12-14 years, because his hitting skill set should age well to begin with......

 

Philly may very well offer him 10/330 or 10/350....... But, I think the other teams are going to offer 12-14 year deals, that are in the 360-400 range....... It lowers their tax number, it gives them at least a bit more money to spend immediately, and they're able to plan for him being a bad contract, during those 36-40 years too...... But, it can at least be reasoned he'll be a very effective DH,even during those years too.

[davell]

Realistically, the guys that conceivably make money and could be moved.....

 

Arb guys first......

 

Schwarber- No, he's not going to make MUCH, but at his estimate of 3.1, if he brought back multiple pre arb arms? At least a possibility.......

 

Russell- Yeah, this one SEEMS like a no-brainer. But, from a business standpoint, letting this guy walk or dumping him for scraps, definitely sucks. I hope they do it, but I'm readying myself for him to be around on Opening Day. He's scheduled to make in the range of 5 mill. Just replace him with Iglesias, Galvis, Mercer, or Hechavarria, salary should be in the same vicinity, if not less, for some of them.......

 

Montgomery- Set to make around 3. Easy to move and kind of a surplus for us, with Smyly too. Plus, if he still wants to be a full-time starter? He's a possibility.....

 

Edwards- Won't make a ton, less than 2 mill. If they think he's going to break down in 2019, I guess it's at least conceivable?

 

Seal Boy- Will make under 2 mill, but does he really have a spot? If things are super tight against one of the tax numbers, he's an easy guy to shave down a bit further.....

 

Realistically, I'd still rank Russell as most likely, followed by Monty, then Schwarber.

 

Guys under contract......

 

Heyward- 5/105 left. 23 against the tax....... Open market, he gets what right now? 2/22ish? He could be dealt, but we'd be sending lots of money AND attaching lots of other pieces to him...... And he likes it here and has enough of a no-trade list, that he could make it extremely hard for us to find a match anyway........e

 

Zobrist- Counts 14 against the tax, owed 12 mill..... He'd be easy to move. Let's hope he's not though. If he gets moved, that's a signal to me, that we're really over budget. Because he fits this team great.

 

Chatwood- Counts 12.667 against the tax, has two years left. Literally would be lucky to get more than 2-3 mill, plus incentives right now, if that...... My guess is you'd need to attach Happ or Amaya to move him. Too steep for me. Maybe you can find a bad contract swap where we technically lower our tax number by a couple mill though? However, if we DID attach something good to move him, I'd take it to mean we must know we're getting Bryce.

 

Quintana- Easy to trade. No idea what kind of return he'd bring..... Again, this one would be a red flag for me, that we're really up against a tight budget.

 

Kintzler- Sucks we've got to deal with this, but my guess is he'd get 2 mill or so from someone. He can be moved by using a Caratini type. Or by including him with Schwarber, Happ, Almora, or part of a bad contract swap. Pretty decent chance he's a goner, in my mind.

 

Duensing- Same as Kintzler, other than he'd probably be signing a minor league deal. Still, he's easily movable, just an annoyance.

 

Darvish- Extreme long shot, but Evan Grant, the Rangers beat guy predicted they'd trade for him this offseason. I can't see it. But, who knows? Maybe getting out from half his deal and taking on a bad deal for the rest? Again, I'd guess 1% here, but figure it's worth bringing up.....

 

Kintzler and Duensing are the easy ones. I think I'd put Chatwood 3rd here, with Quintana close behind, if he brought us back something pretty solid. Any of the others would shock me honestly......

 

As for pre arb guys, or guys in the minors....... Almora doesn't seem to me to be a guy we'd get much for. May be more valuable to us to just hold on to, but he's obviously a possibility..... Happ seems to me to be a better than 50/50 bet to get moved....... Caratini seems like the perfect piece to move one of both of Kintzler or Duensing with. Maples seems like a guy we could easily attach as well. No one's safe though, in the minors. Not if we truly want Bryce. They're just collateral to help us make Bryce fit into the budget........

[davell]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

If this is the case, then why in the horsefeathers are you bringing back Hamels?

[Sammy Sofa]

[Bertz]

My guess is they have the money for Bryce but not much else, so payroll is set at 240-something. Probably 246, which is where the LT penalty is. That's fine, an offseason where we sign Bryce, trade Schwarber for pitching depth, and only make other moves (bullpen, veteran backups at SS and C) as salary dumps allow is still pretty great.

 

If this is the doomsday scenario where we can't even afford Bryce, then Theo has some explaining to do. It'd mean he royally forked up last offseason (both in process and results) by making so many moves that tied up long term payroll.

[Brian]

have we considered Buster doesn't know what he's talking about?

[UMFan83]

I don't know why they traded for Kintzler if they were expecting a payroll crunch after this season. I mean they couldn't expected more than a marginal upgrade at best with him in the pen right? At that point they were likely expecting Morrow back, Strop was healthy, Edwards hadn't imploded yet and they had Cishek, Wilson and if Darvish came back Monty to fill out the pen. We didn't "need" Kintzler, even the one that's shown to be good in previous years.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't know why they traded for Kintzler if they were expecting a payroll crunch after this season. I mean they couldn't expected more than a marginal upgrade at best with him in the pen right? At that point they were likely expecting Morrow back, Strop was healthy, Edwards hadn't imploded yet and they had Cishek, Wilson and if Darvish came back Monty to fill out the pen. We didn't "need" Kintzler, even the one that's shown to be good in previous years.

 

Because moving a reliever like Kintzler who is on a 1/5 deal is not a particularly difficult thing to do if you need to.

[David]

I don't really believe this.

 

Well, the league might think that.

[Clem Fandango]

I think everyone is just looking at their payroll situation and thinking "There's no way they can go any higher, they'll get penalized!!!!" And not taking into consideration that maybe the Cubs just don't give a horsefeathers about getting penalized right now.

[Brian]

I think everyone is just looking at their payroll situation and thinking "There's no way they can go any higher, they'll get penalized!!!!" And not taking into consideration that maybe the Cubs just don't give a horsefeathers about getting penalized right now.

 

you ever heard of capitalism bro?

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My read is that the Cubs are restricted on spending inasmuch in that they're planning on dropping hundreds of millions on Bryce Harper despite having a perfectly good offense without him, so they'll have to do more work on the margins to fit in the relievers or an additional SP they want to do on top of that. Anyone who says 'they're already over the luxury tax, they're tapped out' is not connected to the reality that the Cubs have very clearly been gearing up to play for Harper(or, sigh, Machado) and nothing has changed in that regard.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

I think everyone is just looking at their payroll situation and thinking "There's no way they can go any higher, they'll get penalized!!!!" And not taking into consideration that maybe the Cubs just don't give a horsefeathers about getting penalized right now.

 

you ever heard of capitalism bro?

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

With a response like that it seems pretty clear that Buster doesn't know what he's talking about.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, Buster's admitted source here is other teams' executives, which is like a half step more accurate than whatever fever dreams inform Nightengale's reporting.

[UMFan83]

My read is that the Cubs are restricted on spending inasmuch in that they're planning on dropping hundreds of millions on Bryce Harper despite having a perfectly good offense without him, so they'll have to do more work on the margins to fit in the relievers or an additional SP they want to do on top of that. Anyone who says 'they're already over the luxury tax, they're tapped out' is not connected to the reality that the Cubs have very clearly been gearing up to play for Harper(or, sigh, Machado) and nothing has changed in that regard.

 

Yes this has been exactly my take. Harper has been in the financial plans for the Cubs for multiple years, Hamels has been a potential part of their plan for like 3 months. Anyone who thinks the Cubs are going to take a Hendry-like "shuffle the deck chairs" approach to the offseason is sorely mistaken.

[Clem Fandango]

I like how if the Red Sox Yankees or Dodgers go over the threshold it's just "well they're rich" but if the Cubs do it people turn into a bizarro council member from Sim City 2000. "YOU CAN'T VIOLATE THE LUXURY TAX, YOU WILL REGRET THIS!"

[Sammy Sofa]

My read is that the Cubs are restricted on spending inasmuch in that they're planning on dropping hundreds of millions on Bryce Harper despite having a perfectly good offense without him

 

 

NEVER SETTLE FOR THESE DONGLESS SCUMBAGS.

[Old Style]

Cubs pick up Hamels option.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

My read is that the Cubs are restricted on spending inasmuch in that they're planning on dropping hundreds of millions on Bryce Harper despite having a perfectly good offense without him

 

 

NEVER SETTLE FOR THESE DONGLESS SCUMBAGS.

 

Your home runs uber alles campaign is going to some strange places. Wherever will an offense with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Schwarber, and Contreras find power?