Darvish to Cubs, 6/$126 Million + Incentives

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As long as it's not after 1 year he can have an opt out every year starting after 2019 for all I care. And I don't even care all that much about an opt out after 2018.

[David]

it keeps mind horsefeathers me that the cubs, who never ever ever sign a meaningful FA have signed Lester, Heyward (ok that was a miss,) Zobrist, and Darvish in 3 of the last 4 offseasons

 

edit: and will likely head into the 2019 offseason as favorites to sign Harper

 

edit again: im not counting dawson because that was weird and i was a child and yes i forgot about soriano BUT OTHER THAN THAT

 

alou was pretty big. at least as big as zobrist.

[Brian]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/WContreras40/status/962449398155415552[/tweet]

[imb]

it keeps mind horsefeathers me that the cubs, who never ever ever sign a meaningful FA have signed Lester, Heyward (ok that was a miss,) Zobrist, and Darvish in 3 of the last 4 offseasons

 

edit: and will likely head into the 2019 offseason as favorites to sign Harper

 

edit again: im not counting dawson because that was weird and i was a child and yes i forgot about soriano BUT OTHER THAN THAT

 

alou was pretty big. at least as big as zobrist.

 

 

Ooooh yeah, that's a good one.

[gobigred]

Baseball reference projections

 

Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2018 Proj. 31 9 10 .474 3.98 1 163.0 144 77 72 23 55 2 181 6 1 10 680 1.221 8.0 1.3 3.0 10.0 3.29 7

[Cubswin11]

I’m fine with an opt out after 2 years, would’ve hoped it was 3 but whatever. I wonder what the actual cash outlay is in the deal, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s getting around $60 million the first 2 years.

[Cubswin11]

Who’s gonna break the news to Seal Boy he has to give up his number and loses his BFF?

[chopsx9]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

That's some next level math right there. He's going to feel like a fool though when it turns out Yu can opt out after 0 years.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Who’s gonna break the news to Seal Boy he has to give up his number and loses his BFF?

 

Ian Happ.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

"But how are the Cubs going to build a pitching staff with no pitching prospects?!"

[Omar]

Baseball reference projections

 

                                                                                                              
Year      Tm Age W  L W-L%  ERA SV    IP   H  R ER HR BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP  H9 HR9 BB9  SO9 SO/W Rel
2018   Proj.  31 9 10 .474 3.98  1 163.0 144 77 72 23 55   2 181   6  1 10 680 1.221 8.0 1.3 3.0 10.0 3.29 72%

 

fix'd

 

I hope he will put up more than 160 innings.

[Bluescale]

I’m fine with an opt out after 2 years, would’ve hoped it was 3 but whatever. I wonder what the actual cash outlay is in the deal, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s getting around $60 million the first 2 years.

 

That would mean for luxury tax calculations for the next two years, it would put the Cubs at $30M each year. Unless I'm mistaken, LT is calculated as the AAV of each segment until an opt-out. So I don't think the Cubs want to give him $30M a year for the first two, as that would put them over the cap. But it might be AAV of $25M guaranteed for 2 or 3 years, before it drops significantly.

[Tim]

So glad I got a mixed case of Stone today. Got home and saw the news; took a whole bunch of it and tossed it in the snow to cool it off.

[Cubswin11]

I’m fine with an opt out after 2 years, would’ve hoped it was 3 but whatever. I wonder what the actual cash outlay is in the deal, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s getting around $60 million the first 2 years.

 

That would mean for luxury tax calculations for the next two years, it would put the Cubs at $30M each year. Unless I'm mistaken, LT is calculated as the AAV of each segment until an opt-out. So I don't think the Cubs want to give him $30M a year for the first two, as that would put them over the cap. But it might be AAV of $25M guaranteed for 2 or 3 years, before it drops significantly.

I don’t think that’s how it works at all

[JeffH]

I’m fine with an opt out after 2 years, would’ve hoped it was 3 but whatever. I wonder what the actual cash outlay is in the deal, wouldn’t be surprised if he’s getting around $60 million the first 2 years.

 

That would mean for luxury tax calculations for the next two years, it would put the Cubs at $30M each year. Unless I'm mistaken, LT is calculated as the AAV of each segment until an opt-out. So I don't think the Cubs want to give him $30M a year for the first two, as that would put them over the cap. But it might be AAV of $25M guaranteed for 2 or 3 years, before it drops significantly.

I don’t think that’s how it works at all

 

I don't think so, either. What you have to keep in mind is that the club is guaranteeing to pay the player the entirety of the deal. That, I believe, is the basis of the luxury tax calculation.

[OleMissCub]

Baseball reference projections

 

Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

2018 Proj. 31 9 10 .474 3.98 1 163.0 144 77 72 23 55 2 181 6 1 10 680 1.221 8.0 1.3 3.0 10.0 3.29 7

 

Only 9 wins?

 

[gobigred]

10-7-10 are the amount he has won the last 3 seasons he has pitched...he better be better than that for 20+ million

[Bluescale]

I don’t think that’s how it works at all

 

I'm pretty sure it is, but of course I can't find the details right now.

[Cubswin11]

Baseball reference projections

 

                                                                                                              
Year      Tm Age W  L W-L%  ERA SV    IP   H  R ER HR BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP  H9 HR9 BB9  SO9 SO/W Rel
2018   Proj.  31 9 10 .474 3.98  1 163.0 144 77 72 23 55   2 181   6  1 10 680 1.221 8.0 1.3 3.0 10.0 3.29 72%

 

fix'd

 

I hope he will put up more than 160 innings.

Does seem a little light, but I expect this year to be much like 2016 where the regular season is essentially semantics and we’ll be able to limit innings and skip starts/go 6-man rotation the last month+

[Cubswin11]

I don’t think that’s how it works at all

 

I'm pretty sure it is, but of course I can't find the details right now.

It’s not. It’s the total potential guaranteed amount divided by potential guaranteed years. If incentives/bonuses are hit in a given year it will be adjusted accordingly for that year. The opt outs and how he actual money is paid out don’t matter.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Woo hoo

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

10-7-10 are the amount he has won the last 3 seasons he has pitched...he better be better than that for 20+ million

 

[bukie]

From my FB feed: "Darvish, meh. Probably going to be the next Soriano for the Cubs."

 

To which I can't even begin to dissect the wrong.

 

Like, so wrong, it circles back again to right.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Baseball reference projections

 

                                                                                                              
Year      Tm Age W  L W-L%  ERA SV    IP   H  R ER HR BB IBB  SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP  H9 HR9 BB9  SO9 SO/W Rel
2018   Proj.  31 9 10 .474 3.98  1 163.0 144 77 72 23 55   2 181   6  1 10 680 1.221 8.0 1.3 3.0 10.0 3.29 72%

 

fix'd

 

I hope he will put up more than 160 innings.

Does seem a little light, but I expect this year to be much like 2016 where the regular season is essentially semantics and we’ll be able to limit innings and skip starts/go 6-man rotation the last month+

Yeah, I hope that is the case. What is jarring is that they have him projected for more losses than wins. That's silly. Was this proj made without knowledge of what team he was playing on?

[Bluescale]

I don’t think that’s how it works at all

 

I'm pretty sure it is, but of course I can't find the details right now.

It’s not. It’s the total potential guaranteed amount divided by potential guaranteed years. If incentives/bonuses are hit in a given year it will be adjusted accordingly for that year. The opt outs and how he actual money is paid out don’t matter.

 

Okay, I see where I was getting mixed up. Team and vesting options are not counted as guaranteed money, while player options are. Opt-outs are a form of player option, so it falls into the latter category. That seems a bit non-intuitive to me, but I guess I get it.