Starting Pitching candidates

[David]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but picking up Verlander would effectively mean we're out on Otani before it even happens right? Lester still has 4 years, Quintana 3, Verlander 3 and Hendricks only hitting arb 1. I guess I could see them leaving Montgomery in the bullpen, but to spend another 200M on top of Verlander/Lester. You'd have nearly 100M annually tied up in just the rotation.

 

Unless you really take him at his word about not caring about money AT ALL, aren't we pretty much out on Otani anyway?

[weis21]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but picking up Verlander would effectively mean we're out on Otani before it even happens right? Lester still has 4 years, Quintana 3, Verlander 3 and Hendricks only hitting arb 1. I guess I could see them leaving Montgomery in the bullpen, but to spend another 200M on top of Verlander/Lester. You'd have nearly 100M annually tied up in just the rotation.

 

Unless you really take him at his word about not caring about money AT ALL, aren't we pretty much out on Otani anyway?

Yeah, agreed. Unless there is some "under the table" things about future contracts/money or whatever I didn't think we had any shot at all on Otani. And if we did somehow get him he would have to be cheap for the near future anyway. Which, of course, would be awesome.

 

Just give them Caratini/Zagunis and eat 3/4 of the contract and get Avila and JV

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but picking up Verlander would effectively mean we're out on Otani before it even happens right? Lester still has 4 years, Quintana 3, Verlander 3 and Hendricks only hitting arb 1. I guess I could see them leaving Montgomery in the bullpen, but to spend another 200M on top of Verlander/Lester. You'd have nearly 100M annually tied up in just the rotation.

 

There's some moving pieces involved.

 

- If nothing else materially changed, adding Verlander would take them out of the running for pretty much any 25+ free agent for the next 2 offseasons. So no Otani if he waits a year or Harper/Machado.

 

- If Otani doesn't wait a year, then the money doesn't matter at all in his case.

 

- Heyward opting out would basically bring that back to where we are now. You can decide for yourself if his rejuvenated self would opt out a of 5/106 at 29 with an additional 2019 opt out.

 

- There are not very many pitchers worthy of 25M+ in these offseasons. Otani if he waits a year is one. Other potential options are Darvish at 31 (2017), Kershaw at 31 if he opts out of 2/70 (2018), Price at 33 if he opts out of 4/127 (2018), and Keuchel at 31 (2018). With the exception of Otani and Kershaw, neither of whom are at all guaranteed to be available just for money, you can make the argument that Verlander on 2.5/70 is a better option than whatever FA contract Darvish, Price, or Keuchel might sign. Also Verlander helps you today, which is a nontrivial benefit, and in the case of Price/Keuchel/Kershaw, he also helps you next year instead of keeping your powder dry for 18 months and who knows what other circumstances.

 

 

EDIT: It's also possible that after 2018 they might go into the luxury tax for a year to get someone they really like(I would think Harper is the name for this). After 2019 you'd be losing Verlander and Zobrist for 40 million(and maybe Heyward for 22 million) so you could get away with only one year above.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Is this what we're doing, though? Using our $ to get a guy, since we don't have the prospects?

 

I don't know what I want or what to expect. But I kinda want Theo to just go nuts and make a couple more trades.

 

I'm guessing the Tigers would want to pay at least some of it to acquire a couple prospects. I think that's the only way to really allow themselves to tell their fan base that they traded Verlander. Regardless of what he is now (which still seems very good), he's a legend there. Just basically "selling" him couldn't go over well.

 

But, I mean, if the Tigers paid some of it... would we really care about giving up a couple of these prospects to get Verlander?

 

But yeah this is what was so great about the value of the Quintana deal is it allows something like this (especially with all the money coming off the books).

Fwiw, Crasnick says the Brewers want Kinsler and that Detroit would prefer to package Wilson with him and get salary relief over the better prospect package.

 

I think the reason we are linked so heavily with Detroit is that we can easily see their asking price and not harm the short or future outlook at all.

 

I also think they would like to have Candy and Zagunis so they can plug them right in as they retool.

[David]

what does it take for verlander's option year for 2020 to vest?

[Agony and Ivy]

what does it take for verlander's option year for 2020 to vest?

 

A top 5 finish in the Cy Young vote in 2019

[davell]

what does it take for verlander's option year for 2020 to vest?

 

Top 5 in 2019 Cy Young.

[David]

ok that's not too terrible

[KingCubsFan]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but picking up Verlander would effectively mean we're out on Otani before it even happens right? Lester still has 4 years, Quintana 3, Verlander 3 and Hendricks only hitting arb 1. I guess I could see them leaving Montgomery in the bullpen, but to spend another 200M on top of Verlander/Lester. You'd have nearly 100M annually tied up in just the rotation.

 

There's some moving pieces involved.

 

- If nothing else materially changed, adding Verlander would take them out of the running for pretty much any 25+ free agent for the next 2 offseasons. So no Otani if he waits a year or Harper/Machado.

 

- If Otani doesn't wait a year, then the money doesn't matter at all in his case.

 

- Heyward opting out would basically bring that back to where we are now. You can decide for yourself if his rejuvenated self would opt out a of 5/106 at 29 with an additional 2019 opt out.

 

- There are not very many pitchers worthy of 25M+ in these offseasons. Otani if he waits a year is one. Other potential options are Darvish at 31 (2017), Kershaw at 31 if he opts out of 2/70 (2018), Price at 33 if he opts out of 4/127 (2018), and Keuchel at 31 (2018). With the exception of Otani and Kershaw, neither of whom are at all guaranteed to be available just for money, you can make the argument that Verlander on 2.5/70 is a better option than whatever FA contract Darvish, Price, or Keuchel might sign. Also Verlander helps you today, which is a nontrivial benefit, and in the case of Price/Keuchel/Kershaw, he also helps you next year instead of keeping your powder dry for 18 months and who knows what other circumstances.

 

 

EDIT: It's also possible that after 2018 they might go into the luxury tax for a year to get someone they really like(I would think Harper is the name for this). After 2019 you'd be losing Verlander and Zobrist for 40 million(and maybe Heyward for 22 million) so you could get away with only one year above.

That's the thing. I don't think they'd care about going into the luxury tax for one year. It's the multiple years in a row that's a killer.

[davell]

Yeah, you can go over on occasion. The issue I'd wonder about is if they'd actually make moves, kind of counting on Heyward to opt out. Doesn't seem like their MO.

 

As for Verlander, getting the Tigers to pay down some money erases my concern on his deal anyway. I'm fairly confident the FO isn't going to add a guy his age, without leaving some wiggle room, if he goes downhill quick.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It's obviously a longshot but I also feel the possibility is there to acquire JV for the next year and a half and pay 10m or so after 2018 to flip him and clear more room for FA. Just a thought.

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Here’s something interesting you might know about the Cubs: Their luxury-tax number for 2018 is $74.6 million, leaving them more than under $120 million under the threshold, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

 

So, if the Cubs want to pursue Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander – one of perhaps 20 trade options they are considering, according to major-league sources – they’ve got the financial flexibility to pull off such a move.

 

Verlander, 34, is earning annual salaries of $28 million through 2019, and his contract includes a $22 million vesting option for 2020. It’s unlikely any team would be willing to absorb that entire commitment. But for the Cubs – and every other potential suitor – there is a salary number at which Verlander becomes feasible.

 

The Tigers are in a bind – they reportedly are reluctant to include significant cash in a Verlander deal, but they also want a significant return, given the pitcher’s importance to their franchise. Generally, teams get either salary relief or prospects in such trades, not both.

 

On the other side, a team such as the Cubs must consider the opportunity cost. Verlander might thrive in the National League and find additional motivation playing for a contender, assuming he is willing to waive his full no-trade rights. But every dollar spent on him in his ages 34, 35 and 36 seasons would be a dollar that could go to another player – say, a free agent such as Alex Cobb or Tyler Chatwood. Every prospect traded for Verlander, meanwhile, is a prospect who might be a future Cub or fodder for another deal.

 

The Cubs do not necessarily need another starter after acquiring Jose Quintana – they might be better off adding a reliever, and definitely intend to add a veteran backup catcher, sources say. But true to form under Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, they are remaining active on all fronts. They probably do not have the prospect capital to acquire the Athletics’ Sonny Gray, sources say. But their future financial flexibility increases their options.

 

The Cubs’ 2018 luxury-tax number is relatively low due to the large number of potential free agents on their roster, including starting pitchers Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Brett Anderson, relievers Wade Davis and Koji Uehara and outfielder Jon Jay. Catcher Miguel Montero’s $12 million salary, the vast majority of which the Cubs are still paying, also will disappear.

[Tryptamine]

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Athletics are prioritizing young center fielders in trade talks for Sonny Gray.

As such, Morosi hears that the Athletics have interest in Yankees prospect outfielder Estevan Florial, who has enjoyed a breakout year with Class A Charleston and recently played in the Futures Game. It's unclear if the Yankees would be willing to part with him in this particular deal, but the price tag figures to be high for a pitcher who is under team control though 2019. The Yankees have a clear need for a starter.

 

Almora?

[Tim]

Just trade for Verlander, Avila and Wilson and get it all done at once

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just trade for Verlander, Avila and Wilson and get it all done at once

This is what I've been saying

 

What would you guys expect the cost to be?

[Post Count Padder]

Just trade for Verlander, Avila and Wilson and get it all done at once

This is what I've been saying

 

What would you guys expect the cost to be?

Definitely Almora, possibly Happ.

 

Maybe something like Almora, Clifton, Hatch, Candelario and Zagunis?

[David]

Just trade for Verlander, Avila and Wilson and get it all done at once

This is what I've been saying

 

What would you guys expect the cost to be?

Definitely Almora, possibly Happ.

 

Maybe something like Almora, Clifton, Hatch, Candelario and Zagunis?

 

i wouldn't trade happ in this deal in a million horsefeathering years

[We Got The Whole 9]

These trades this season have been odd

 

Before the season if we proposed a deal to get Quintana, we thought it would have to be Schwarber+, but if somebody suggested Eloy and Cease+, there was no way anybody would have proposed somebody in the Rice and Flete realm to fill out the deal.

 

Then you look at Martinez and it's one centerpiece and 2 back-end of the 30s types.

 

I'd do that deal but I'm interested in hearing others thoughts as well. Those 3 in one fell swoop is my most desired move I think, taking all things into consideration.

[Post Count Padder]

This is what I've been saying

 

What would you guys expect the cost to be?

Definitely Almora, possibly Happ.

 

Maybe something like Almora, Clifton, Hatch, Candelario and Zagunis?

 

i wouldn't trade happ in this deal in a million horsefeathering years

I wouldn't deal Happ either. It really depends on how much the Tigers like guys in our system and how much of Verlander's salary they'd kick in.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah Happ is off limits in a Verlander deal for me. He'd only be available in a Gray or Britton+Gausman or Bundy deal for me of the names we've heard are available.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

We want to win the World Series again, right? Not sure how trading Happ during the year would move us toward that goal. Hes kind of important to our lineup.

[Cubswin11]

We want to win the World Series again, right? Not sure how trading Happ during the year would move us toward that goal. Hes kind of important to our lineup.

In the playoffs, IMO, having Britton in the bullpen helps us more than Happ in the lineup who's abs would be taken by Jay or Almora most likely (don't think there's a big drop off there). I obviously prefer to keep Happ and try to add without using him but there's guys that I would give Happ up for.

[Gilby]

I've kind of already decided I don't want to see Hendricks start a playoff game this year should the Cubs make it. And I'm certainly not saying Lackey is the answer.

[Gmoney08]

I've kind of already decided I don't want to see Hendricks start a playoff game this year should the Cubs make it. And I'm certainly not saying Lackey is the answer.

 

Seems pretty shortsighted about a guy who was dynamite in the regular season and playoffs last year & had brief struggles to start the season followed by a good stretch of pitching and a hand injury..

[Gilby]

I've kind of already decided I don't want to see Hendricks start a playoff game this year should the Cubs make it. And I'm certainly not saying Lackey is the answer.

 

Seems pretty shortsighted about a guy who was dynamite in the regular season and playoffs last year & had brief struggles to start the season followed by a good stretch of pitching and a hand injury..

 

I know it wasn't a shoulder or elbow, but it was still an injury that kept him out well over a month, and he throws 85 mph now. If he wasn't a Cub, we'd all be mocking him in the #NotAllPitchers thread. I think he still belongs in a regular season rotation, but the thought of him in the playoffs gives me major anxiety at the moment.

 

Now, I'm not saying you go out and trade for Verlander just because Hendricks might be broken. You have to feel good about JV first and foremost if you're going to take on that contract. But either way, I like that they are apparently looking hard at him.