2016 Trade Deadline

[Agony and Ivy]

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I'd be a little upset if Wade Davis + Kennedy's contract fetches a similar return as Chapman to the Cubs.

 

For our team I would just rather have the rental. Ian Kennedy getting paid 16 million still in 2020 when he's not very good in 2016 doesn't seem fun.

 

Holy hell I didn't look up his deal before posting but I never assumed he would be under contract for 4 more seasons after this one. Ok that changes my mind a bit.

 

Also, Wade Davis isn't better than Chapman.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

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I'd be a little upset if Wade Davis + Kennedy's contract fetches a similar return as Chapman to the Cubs.

 

For our team I would just rather have the rental. Ian Kennedy getting paid 16 million still in 2020 when he's not very good in 2016 doesn't seem fun.

 

Holy hell I didn't look up his deal before posting but I never assumed he would be under contract for 4 more seasons after this one. Ok that changes my mind a bit.

 

Yeah. He can opt out after next season but I don't see that happening with the biggest part of the contract on the backend and him not being very good.

[UMFan83]

 

For our team I would just rather have the rental. Ian Kennedy getting paid 16 million still in 2020 when he's not very good in 2016 doesn't seem fun.

 

Holy hell I didn't look up his deal before posting but I never assumed he would be under contract for 4 more seasons after this one. Ok that changes my mind a bit.

 

Also, Wade Davis isn't better than Chapman.

 

Geez I dont know they are pretty close over the last 3 years although Davis' numbers have declined slightly each year in that time frame. His xFIP is a little jarring this year compared to Chapman.

 

They are close enough that the extra year of control is why Davis should have more value than Chapman

[UMFan83]

Can't read the rest because its Insider but...

 

It's as if Cubs president Theo Epstein dropped a value grenade right into the middle of the reliever trade market the other day, with the high prospect price he paid for nine-week rental Aroldis Chapman.

 

That deal has seemingly created a layer of negotiation chaos with less than 100 hours to go before the deadline, because now his peers with other teams are scrambling to reassess asking prices and acquisition costs for relievers, and to quickly identify any new market inefficiency.

 

The clock is ticking, and one evaluator mused that he thinks the resulting confusion may have been part of Epstein’s plan. But there's not really any time for the rest of them to mull over that question.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=13679

[Agony and Ivy]

 

Holy hell I didn't look up his deal before posting but I never assumed he would be under contract for 4 more seasons after this one. Ok that changes my mind a bit.

 

Also, Wade Davis isn't better than Chapman.

 

Geez I dont know they are pretty close over the last 3 years although Davis' numbers have declined slightly each year in that time frame. His xFIP is a little jarring this year compared to Chapman.

 

They are close enough that the extra year of control is why Davis should have more value than Chapman

 

That's negated once he's handcuffed to shitbag Ian Kennedy. Davis is also two years older. I like Wade but things like the forearm injury have hurt his long term outlook. While his lack of whiffs and uptick in walks makes him not even in the conversation with Chapman.

[Thusly Boned]

Apparently those making inquiries about Davis have been told that acquiring him would require more than it cost the Cubs to get Chapman. Not going to argue if that is fair or not, but the reliever market really changed with the Chapman deal.

 

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

[sneakypower]

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

this is the best defense of a (perceived) overpay i've seen, even though it probably assigns too much credit

[Andy]

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

this is the best defense of a (perceived) overpay i've seen, even though it probably assigns too much credit

I don't know that Theo intended to throw off other teams, but I think he definitely saw value in being the first to jump into the market, given so many top-tier relievers are out there.

[Thusly Boned]

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

this is the best defense of a (perceived) overpay i've seen, even though it probably assigns too much credit

I don't know that Theo intended to throw off other teams, but I think he definitely saw value in being the first to jump into the market, given so many top-tier relievers are out there.

 

I'm not saying I fully buy into it (or agree with it even if true), but I definitely think it's plausible. I was listening to Olney's podcast, and he and Keith Law were discussing it, and Law implied that Epstein had talked in the past about the value of disrupting a market this way.

[Agony and Ivy]

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

this is the best defense of a (perceived) overpay i've seen, even though it probably assigns too much credit

I don't know that Theo intended to throw off other teams, but I think he definitely saw value in being the first to jump into the market, given so many top-tier relievers are out there.

 

Discussed it on Twitter the day it happened. It's absolutely a byproduct of the deal and very easy to anticipate coming. I have an econ degree from shitty UT San Antonio could predict the market would respond this way. I am assuming Theo and their Ivy League econ degrees and analysts knew that would happen. Washington could still hang in a trade like the Chapman one, but the Giants have horsefeathers in their system.

[Agony and Ivy]

Related to what UMF posted, there has been growing speculation that this was a byproduct that Theo intended, to either drive the reliever acquisition cost for Washington, San Francisco and St. Louis way up and/or to force them to back out of the market altogether.

 

I have no doubts about this. I'm sure neither the Nats or Giants are into trading a Robles or Fox for a reliever, but the Cubs were set up to be able to sell Torres without skipping a beat both at the ML and MiL levels.

 

Lucius Fox belongs nowhere near the names of Torres or Robles yet.

[Cubswin11]

Doesn't or didn't Davis have an elbow problem recently?

[Agony and Ivy]

 

I have no doubts about this. I'm sure neither the Nats or Giants are into trading a Robles or Fox for a reliever, but the Cubs were set up to be able to sell Torres without skipping a beat both at the ML and MiL levels.

 

Lucius Fox belongs nowhere near the names of Torres or Robles yet.

 

Oh, most definitely, but he is the highest ceiling guy in their system and the one IIRC they were most adverse to moving. Torres going basically locks him++ as the price for Miller, making that the situatuon is advantageous for the Cubs.

 

Absolutely. The Cubs package basically completely priced the Giants out of the high end reliever market because I don't think teams are looking for 10 C-level prospects. The Cubs have basically made it a premium hitting prospect + for anyone looking to add a reliever this year and the GIants simply don't have it in their system. So now they'll go get Hochevar instead.

[Agony and Ivy]

Doesn't or didn't Davis have an elbow problem recently?

 

It was a forearm strain i believe.

[Banedon]

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[Cubswin11]

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Lol, it would be a perfect Heyman tweet if he tweets out soon. "Or maybe they didn't got out. Calls or texts may both work."

[Post Count Padder]

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Lol, it would be a perfect Heyman tweet if he tweets out soon. "Or maybe they didn't got out. Calls or texts may both work."

Or for someone to tweet that Jon wasn't receiving texts before Jon tweeted it.

[davell]

We've got a roster crunch coming soon, with Coghlan and Soler coming back soon. We're also evidently still thinking about adding an OFer via trade. Short of the phantom DL move, I really don't see anyone moving down. Seal Boy can, but no one else.....

 

I definitely think Soler has lost quite a bit of luster, so I'm not looking at trading him as a centerpiece for an upper tier major league starter. But trying to find other talented youngsters that may have struggled some off the bat, that may have lost some value themselves.....

 

With Theo mentioning looking at the future, how about Soler to the Braves? They finished second on him back when he signed with us. They tried trading for him last deadline. And they need hitting more than any team in baseball. On top of that, they've got more pitching prospects than any team in baseball.

 

Could you get Folty or Wisler for Soler? Or Newcomb for him? Or any number of combos with them. They've got the guys struggling in the majors that count towards us adding depth now, with upside for next year. They've also got plenty of solid arms in A thru AA that could add to our inventory of basically zilch at those levels.....

 

Anyway, the more I look at it, I think we're ideal trading partners with them.

[Cubswin11]

I'd rather have Soler on the team over Szczur, it would suck losing Szczur because he's a capable MLB bench player but dumping him for Soler is a no brainer move to me unless there's some team who really values Soler still that you can get something useful, which I think is unlikely.

[davell]

Taijuan Walker is throwing in front of scouts tomorrow at Wrigley. Is he worth giving up Happ for? I say yes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Someone help me understand the motivation to trade Walker. Montgomery was a little surprising, but if you think of him as a reliever there's a finite ceiling. With someone like Paxton you could at least play the TINSTAAPP game. Walker seems like a perfectly cromulent starter now with a ton of upside, and the Mariners aren't exactly overstuffed with SP, why are they trading him?

[davell]

Someone help me understand the motivation to trade Walker. Montgomery was a little surprising, but if you think of him as a reliever there's a finite ceiling. With someone like Paxton you could at least play the TINSTAAPP game. Walker seems like a perfectly cromulent starter now with a ton of upside, and the Mariners aren't exactly overstuffed with SP, why are they trading him?

 

No idea, but they must not think his upside is what it used to be.

[shnsajax]

Someone help me understand the motivation to trade Walker. Montgomery was a little surprising, but if you think of him as a reliever there's a finite ceiling. With someone like Paxton you could at least play the TINSTAAPP game. Walker seems like a perfectly cromulent starter now with a ton of upside, and the Mariners aren't exactly overstuffed with SP, why are they trading him?

 

This, they aren't even going through a full rebuild nor do they need to. If they were, offer Felix while you still can and collect your Randy Johnson sum of prospects.

[Banedon]

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2016/07/28/192345472/twins-scoreboard-predicts-beltran-will-smith-trades-during-game

[NOLA]

Cashner and Rea to the Marlins from SD.