Talk Arrieta here

[Sammy Sofa]

Anyone notice any similarities between recent Jake and 2015 playoffs Jake?

 

The Pirates did not.

I'm referring to how Jake looked in both Cardinals and Mets series

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/oh_i_get_it_fight_club.gif

[Tracer Bullet]

You really starting to piss me off Jake

[Banedon]

So Jesse Rogers wrote a recap of last night claiming that Arrieta is back in the Cy Young race.

 

Then I checked the ESPN Cy Young predictor...and Jake is ahead by a pretty good amount now...

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

 

So who's really in Cy Young contention here? The predictor doesn't list Hendricks, because I think it's putting a lot of stock in his W-L record. I figure Kershaw could still be in it if he can come back soon and come back strong...but I'm not confident about that. Strasburg's recent struggles and now DL stint are gonna probably knock him out of this. Lester is right there with Jake...and Cueto is probably right there too. Anyone else?

[Banedon]

ROFL...and this Fansided post from yesterday has the list as Bumgarner, Syndergaard and Sherzer....3 guys I didn't even mention....

 

http://fansided.com/2016/08/23/mlb-awards-watch-wild-jam-packed-race-nl-cy-young/3/

[Brian707]

They talked about Jake being in the running on Mully and Hanley this morning when Bruce Levine was on. He mention W-L being a big factor for a lot of these voters.

[Liam Neeson]

They talked about Jake being in the running on Mully and Hanley this morning when Bruce Levine was on. He mention W-L being a big factor for a lot of these voters.

 

 

[Cubswin11]

They talked about Jake being in the running on Mully and Hanley this morning when Bruce Levine was on. He mention W-L being a big factor for a lot of these voters.

It's dumb but I agree that if Jake can get to 20+ wins he probably wins it again.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

you just can't win a game if your starting pitcher doesn't go at least 5 innings and leave with the lead. it's science.

[UMFan83]

The recent reports for Kershaw are encouraging (which sucks from a playoff perspective but that's a different story). I'm guessing if he comes back before September and is anywhere near as dominant as he was before he got hurt he will be the overwhelming Cy Young choice for writers.

[Brian]

20 wins and a mid 2 ERA would be pretty easy to vote for.

[squally1313]

20 wins and a mid 2 ERA would be pretty easy to vote for.

 

Agreed. If Jake gets to 20, that number plus the streak of good pitching it would likely take to get him there would probably push him over the top. Which is incredible considering how frustrating he's somehow been to me over the last couple months. Last year's Cy Young race was pretty unprecedented.

[UMFan83]

Dave Cameron answered a question about the NL Cy Young race in a chat today.

 

Greg

12:05 It sounds like Kershaw is nearing a return. In your opinion, what does he need to do to get the Cy Young?

 

Dave Cameron

12:05 I'm an NL Cy Young voter again this year, so I can't be too definitive. But if he ends up throwing another 30 good innings before the year is out, I think he'll probably be the favorite.

 

One person's perspective but its from an actual voter to take it FWIW.

[Cubswin11]

Kershaw is going to be severely hampered if he's even able to pitch this year, which I still doubt. He needs surgery to fix his problem, rest doesn't fix it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

http://media.tenor.co/images/0566242e63cb9efbaf88f6c17d909bff/raw

[soccer10k]

So Jesse Rogers wrote a recap of last night claiming that Arrieta is back in the Cy Young race.

 

Then I checked the ESPN Cy Young predictor...and Jake is ahead by a pretty good amount now...

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

 

So who's really in Cy Young contention here? The predictor doesn't list Hendricks, because I think it's putting a lot of stock in his W-L record. I figure Kershaw could still be in it if he can come back soon and come back strong...but I'm not confident about that. Strasburg's recent struggles and now DL stint are gonna probably knock him out of this. Lester is right there with Jake...and Cueto is probably right there too. Anyone else?

 

When your Cy Young formula completely omits Bumgarner (2nd ERA, 3rd bWAR, 6th fWAR) and Syndergaard (3rd ERA, 6th bWAR, 2nd fWAR) from your top-10, I think it might be time to rework your formula.

[Banedon]

So Jesse Rogers wrote a recap of last night claiming that Arrieta is back in the Cy Young race.

 

Then I checked the ESPN Cy Young predictor...and Jake is ahead by a pretty good amount now...

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

 

So who's really in Cy Young contention here? The predictor doesn't list Hendricks, because I think it's putting a lot of stock in his W-L record. I figure Kershaw could still be in it if he can come back soon and come back strong...but I'm not confident about that. Strasburg's recent struggles and now DL stint are gonna probably knock him out of this. Lester is right there with Jake...and Cueto is probably right there too. Anyone else?

 

When your Cy Young formula completely omits Bumgarner (2nd ERA, 3rd bWAR, 6th fWAR) and Syndergaard (3rd ERA, 6th bWAR, 2nd fWAR) from your top-10, I think it might be time to rework your formula.

 

So you're saying that Kenley Jansen is NOT 2nd in the NL Cy Young race?

[Liam Neeson]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/one-of-baseballs-best-pitches-is-missing/

[George Hayduke]

Pfffft....Sullivan is like two months behind Duke with that analysis.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

so is Jake relying on his fastball more because he's having a harder time throwing his slider/cutter/jakeball for strikes this year, thus falling behind?

 

(apologies if addressed in another article, y'all should know I can't read those all the way through)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I haven't investigated this, but I think it's the other way around. He's having a hard time controlling and commanding his fastballs(4 seam, 2 seam, and cutter), and they move so much that if he's not sharp they leave the zone. Since the pitch isn't any easier to hit, hitters just sit central and wait for 2 strikes or a pitch that drifts into the middle of the zone. Since the slider(and the cutters with enough bite to be classified a slider) is almost exclusively a chase pitch, this approach damages it most of all.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I haven't investigated this, but I think it's the other way around. He's having a hard time controlling and commanding his fastballs(4 seam, 2 seam, and cutter), and they move so much that if he's not sharp they leave the zone. Since the pitch isn't any easier to hit, hitters just sit central and wait for 2 strikes or a pitch that drifts into the middle of the zone. Since the slider(and the cutters with enough bite to be classified a slider) is almost exclusively a chase pitch, this approach damages it most of all.

Yeah, I think this makes the most sense...although that arm slot stat might be worth looking into, which I'm sure Jake and Bosio are already aware of.

[Cubswin11]

I haven't investigated this, but I think it's the other way around. He's having a hard time controlling and commanding his fastballs(4 seam, 2 seam, and cutter), and they move so much that if he's not sharp they leave the zone. Since the pitch isn't any easier to hit, hitters just sit central and wait for 2 strikes or a pitch that drifts into the middle of the zone. Since the slider(and the cutters with enough bite to be classified a slider) is almost exclusively a chase pitch, this approach damages it most of all.

This seems the very likely reason to me. His FB command early in counts failing him to set up chase pitches so batters are just pretty much auto taking his slider/cutter. Is there any way to get the data on the locations of his slider/cutter last year vs this year in terms of % it's in the zone vs not or how much it's missing the zone year vs year in terms of distance off the plate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I haven't investigated this, but I think it's the other way around. He's having a hard time controlling and commanding his fastballs(4 seam, 2 seam, and cutter), and they move so much that if he's not sharp they leave the zone. Since the pitch isn't any easier to hit, hitters just sit central and wait for 2 strikes or a pitch that drifts into the middle of the zone. Since the slider(and the cutters with enough bite to be classified a slider) is almost exclusively a chase pitch, this approach damages it most of all.

This seems the very likely reason to me. His FB command early in counts failing him to set up chase pitches so batters are just pretty much auto taking his slider/cutter. Is there any way to get the data on the locations of his slider/cutter last year vs this year in terms of % it's in the zone vs not or how much it's missing the zone year vs year in terms of distance off the plate?

 

Zone rate by pitch

 

Pitch    2015   2016
Fastball  53%    56%
Sinker    55%    50%  
Slider    48%    45%
Curve     33%    30%
Change    24%    20%

 

Hard to take too much from this since we can't be sure where the cutters are hiding in those first 3 classifications.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm irrationally angry that Dave Cameron has a Cy Young vote.

[badger]

I'm irrationally angry that Dave Cameron has a Cy Young vote.

 

Pretty sure that could be rationally angry as well.