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Posted
A weighted roll of the dice, i.e. they have almost 3x the chance of an average playoff team, which still, unfortunately due to the structure of the playoffs, doesn't make them favorites against the field or something
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Posted

the main thing? No

 

No it should not. It should be in the back of your head as a reminder to not get carried away, or react to negatively to a loss. But the main thing is thinking about the team playing and hopefully winning.

 

i mean, with regard to whatever team you're a fan of, yeah, but that's a given.

 

i basically just try to approach it as being excited about having the dice roll and seeing what happens rather than having expectations going in. it's hard not to, though, with how consistently well this team has performed for the most part. emotionally, though, i kinda am expecting it to happen this year, which i can't help.

 

a roll of the dice? Teams that just squeak into the wild card should be feeling lucky they get one more roll of the dice in the playoffs. Good teams that win their division should feel good heading into the playoffs, but know it's going to be a battle every series.

 

The Cubs have a laughable run differential and are by far the best team in baseball. That doesn't guarantee anything and no one should be totally shocked if [expletive] happens and we lose. But acting like we aren't in a meaningfully better position than every other team (barring some freak injury in the next 2 months) is just as stupid as acting like they should just hand us the trophy b/c we're so much better than everyone else. If you're trying to protect yourself by tempering expectations, that's cool. But a [expletive] dice roll?

 

yes, a dice roll. it is fact. weighted, yes, but in a way that doesn't really change the fact that we're overwhelmingly likely to lose. do we really have to revisit this topic every year?

 

having an 80% (as low as 70% if you REALLY want to be generous about how meaningful the talent gap is) of losing is far from "that doesn't guarantee anything and nobody should be shocked if horsefeathers happens." that's a huge understatement.

Posted
do we really have to revisit this topic every year?

 

no because no one is debating it. It's an accepted fact that doesn't even need to be said out loud. It's like saying "well yes he's leading the league in home runs, but odds are he's not going to hit one in this at bat." No horsefeathers, you're not exactly dropping knowledge nu-Derwood.

Posted
do we really have to revisit this topic every year?

 

no because no one is debating it. It's an accepted fact that doesn't even need to be said out loud. It's like saying "well yes he's leading the league in home runs, but odds are he's not going to hit one in this at bat." No [expletive], you're not exactly dropping knowledge nu-Derwood.

 

except the post i replied to directly disputing my statement that i'm just happy to have a roll of the dice.

Posted
do we really have to revisit this topic every year?

 

no because no one is debating it. It's an accepted fact that doesn't even need to be said out loud. It's like saying "well yes he's leading the league in home runs, but odds are he's not going to hit one in this at bat." No [expletive], you're not exactly dropping knowledge nu-Derwood.

 

except the post i replied to directly disputing my statement that i'm just happy to have a roll of the dice.

 

he was calling you a wet-blanket loser, not debating that it was a dice roll.

Posted

 

no because no one is debating it. It's an accepted fact that doesn't even need to be said out loud. It's like saying "well yes he's leading the league in home runs, but odds are he's not going to hit one in this at bat." No [expletive], you're not exactly dropping knowledge nu-Derwood.

 

except the post i replied to directly disputing my statement that i'm just happy to have a roll of the dice.

 

he was calling you a wet-blanket loser, not debating that it was a dice roll.

 

i like you, but you're such a horsefeathering idiot, lmao

Posted
I'm going to wait until after the playoffs and then start an argument that Epstein was actually wasteful in building a team this good and that he should have saved some bullets for sustained success rather than trying to goose up his extension value.
Posted (edited)
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/773248368697044993[/tweet]

 

This is just insane, especially considering he blew two saves. (Not trying to imply direct correlation here, just in awe at that record)

 

And also our two best relievers other than Chapman have been injured for the majority of that time.

 

Grimm's last 24 appearances:

 

20.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 6 BB, 28 K, 3 XBH, 0.44 ERA, .425 OPS against

 

This is our 6th inning guy in the playoffs... you know the 6th inning we won't even need a reliever to pitch in.

Edited by UMFan83
Posted
[tweet]https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/773248368697044993[/tweet]

 

This is just insane, especially considering he blew two saves. (Not trying to imply direct correlation here, just in awe at that record)

 

And also our two best relievers other than Chapman have been injured for the majority of that time.

 

Grimm's last 24 appearances:

 

20.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 H, 6 BB, 28 K, 3 XBH, 0.44 ERA, .425 OPS against

 

This is our 6th inning guy in the playoffs... you know the 6th inning we won't even need a reliever to pitch in.

 

Assuming everyone is healthy, he's probably more like the 5th best reliever behind Chapman, Rondon, Strop, and CJ. If Zastryzny and Smith continue to pitch well, it's certainly going to be interesting to see the roster decisions come the NLDS.

Posted
we need the playoffs to start....the waiting is tearing our precious family apart.....

 

This talk made me think about the 2003 Braves, who won 101 games and got bounced by the 88-win Cubs. Which made me try to remember Game 5 of that series, of which I could really only remember Borowski closing it out. So I looked it up on B-R and of course Dusty Baker sent Wood out there for the 8th with 106 pitches already thrown and a three-run lead.

 

So basically now I'm just remembering how much I hate Dusty Baker and how much I love how our pitching is being managed this year.

Posted
we need the playoffs to start....the waiting is tearing our precious family apart.....

 

This talk made me think about the 2003 Braves, who won 101 games and got bounced by the 88-win Cubs. Which made me try to remember Game 5 of that series, of which I could really only remember Borowski closing it out. So I looked it up on B-R and of course Dusty Baker sent Wood out there for the 8th with 106 pitches already thrown and a three-run lead.

 

So basically now I'm just remembering how much I hate Dusty Baker and how much I love how our pitching is being managed this year.

 

I might be crucified for this but in a winner take all game and a very shaky pen, I'm not necessarily opposed to Wood pitching the 8th in that situation.

Posted
we need the playoffs to start....the waiting is tearing our precious family apart.....

 

This talk made me think about the 2003 Braves, who won 101 games and got bounced by the 88-win Cubs. Which made me try to remember Game 5 of that series, of which I could really only remember Borowski closing it out. So I looked it up on B-R and of course Dusty Baker sent Wood out there for the 8th with 106 pitches already thrown and a three-run lead.

 

So basically now I'm just remembering how much I hate Dusty Baker and how much I love how our pitching is being managed this year.

 

I might be crucified for this but in a winner take all game and a very shaky pen, I'm not necessarily opposed to Wood pitching the 8th in that situation.

 

Using pitchers like mules in the playoffs I can deal with and is often ideal; Dusty's horsefeathering problem is that he treats the whole season like that.

Posted
we need the playoffs to start....the waiting is tearing our precious family apart.....

 

This talk made me think about the 2003 Braves, who won 101 games and got bounced by the 88-win Cubs. Which made me try to remember Game 5 of that series, of which I could really only remember Borowski closing it out. So I looked it up on B-R and of course Dusty Baker sent Wood out there for the 8th with 106 pitches already thrown and a three-run lead.

 

So basically now I'm just remembering how much I hate Dusty Baker and how much I love how our pitching is being managed this year.

 

I might be crucified for this but in a winner take all game and a very shaky pen, I'm not necessarily opposed to Wood pitching the 8th in that situation.

if he hadn't already used Wood (and Prior) like that all season long then I'd be all for him pitching in that situation in an elimination game.

Posted
I'm going to wait until after the playoffs and then start an argument that Epstein was actually wasteful in building a team this good and that he should have saved some bullets for sustained success rather than trying to goose up his extension value.

I've always kinda wanted to see some GM be ballsy enough to do that, though I think I'd hate it if Theo was the first person to try it. Given the lack of impending free agents for us, the only one I could think of would be like trading Dexter for prospects.

 

I remember drunkenly making that argument about the Nationals before last year, when FG had them projected to win the division by like 13 games. Which obviously means it was a dumb argument, but still. Without looking it up, we must have been like 97% to make the playoffs at the end of July this year.

Posted
General Cubs chit chat: Is the Chicago "Cub" meant to be a bear-cub specifically, or is it mean't to symbolize any sort of Cub? (Tiger, lion, etc.)

 

I am fully aware we use the bear-cub as the logo.

 

It came from a nickname for young, promising players. So technically it started as species non-specific, but I think the bear connection has been pretty well established retroactively.

 

 

Because I'm a Cubs/Bears pyscho, my in-laws bought me a book on George Halas. In it, the claim is made that he named the football franchise the Bears because that was a grown-up version of the Cubs baseball squad. Maybe wrong, maybe right. Halas was a University of Illinois graduate, which is the motivation for the Bears colors being blue and orange.

 

The more you know (rainbow rainbow rainbow)

Posted
General Cubs chit chat: Is the Chicago "Cub" meant to be a bear-cub specifically, or is it mean't to symbolize any sort of Cub? (Tiger, lion, etc.)

 

I am fully aware we use the bear-cub as the logo.

 

It came from a nickname for young, promising players. So technically it started as species non-specific, but I think the bear connection has been pretty well established retroactively.

 

 

Because I'm a Cubs/Bears pyscho, my in-laws bought me a book on George Halas. In it, the claim is made that he named the football franchise the Bears because that was a grown-up version of the Cubs baseball squad. Maybe wrong, maybe right. Halas was a University of Illinois graduate, which is the motivation for the Bears colors being blue and orange.

 

The more you know (rainbow rainbow rainbow)

 

think that's true

Posted

 

no because no one is debating it. It's an accepted fact that doesn't even need to be said out loud. It's like saying "well yes he's leading the league in home runs, but odds are he's not going to hit one in this at bat." No [expletive], you're not exactly dropping knowledge nu-Derwood.

 

except the post i replied to directly disputing my statement that i'm just happy to have a roll of the dice.

 

he was calling you a wet-blanket loser, not debating that it was a dice roll.

 

Yes exactly this. I'm sure there are people who need this explained to them in the terms you're using but not most people here and no one that's posted in this thread. The Cubs are in the best position to win the WS. That doesn't mean they're more likelyti win than the field. But acting like we're no better off than the rangers is just stupid.

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