General Cubs Chit-Chat

[sweetpeteman]

Because this front office has difficulty admitting when they're wrong. They have theories on how teams should be built and run and will not deviate from that.

 

Further, they're trying to find the new "inefficiencies" when this is an organization that doesn't need to do that.

[Cubswin11]

Because this front office has difficulty admitting when they're wrong. They have theories on how teams should be built and run and will not deviate from that.

 

Further, they're trying to find the new "inefficiencies" when this is an organization that doesn't need to do that.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

[UMFan83]

I think it's pretty obvious that the issues with the Cubs offense right now are both bad performance and bad luck. I've been curious to see how much is attributable to each though. So I went to Fangraphs, and looked at each hitter's wOBA and their xwOBA. wOBA is a composite stat on the OBP scale, so average should be .320-.330. xwOBA is their expected line based on Statcast estimates from all their batted balls. Here's how the Cubs lineup and top bench guys measure by each (wOBA/xwOBA):

 

Happ - .261/.337

Contreras - .365/.354

Rizzo - .257/.322

Bryant - .392/.353

Joc - .192/.217

Baez - .284/.242

Heyward - .249/.253

Bote - .202/.303

 

Sogard - .171/.229

Duffy - .218/.399

Marisnick - .290/.301

 

So on the one hand, the good news is that the team has been very unlucky. Bryant and Baez have been fairly fortunate, and Contreras has gotten a smidge of good luck, but everyone else has been BABIP'd, several of them quite hard.

 

On the other hand, even if everyone hit based on their Statcast numbers, the offense would still be pretty bad. If you average the main 8's xwOBA's, you get .297, which still sucks. So like the team should be closer to the 20th ranked offense than the 30th, but being 20th is obviously still very much a problem.

 

It comes down to this for me...

 

Theo declared the offense "broken" nearly 30 months ago and they still have 7 of the 11 top players by Plate Appearances from 2018 on the team. They switched out Schwarber for his statistical clone in Pederson. And they switched out Zobrist, Russell and Almora for the far less talented trio of Sogard, Marsinick and Duffy. And they still have the same hitting coach.

 

This is basically the same group of players that has gone through bizarre extended offensive droughts in each of the previous three seasons, including scoring 1 or 0 runs in 10 of the last 21 games last season.

 

Why are they expecting an improved result?

 

Not to mention that 3 of those 7 remaining guys are either going to walk after the season for a draft pick or get a very depressed value at the trade deadline. The FO can claim they were broke and couldnt add guys better than Descalso, but the opportunity was there if they wanted to shake up the team to get a ton more value after 2018. I'm not saying its easy to trade guys like Bryant or Javy, I'd have a hard time pulling the trigger too, and if the market sucked and they accepted a deal to trade lets say Kris Bryant for .75 on the dollar they would have been torn to shreds. Hindsight is 20/20 and we didnt know KB would deal with injuries that affected his performance, or that Javy's breakout was apparently a mirage.

 

But even acknowledging the difficult situation they were in, they admitted the offense was broken but kept putting their faith in that same offense. No one player was the problem and each of them individually provided a good amount of value. But they combined to create an easily exploitable offense. This much was well known and obvious to even baseball idiots like me. They really misplayed their hand.

[UMFan83]

Because this front office has difficulty admitting when they're wrong. They have theories on how teams should be built and run and will not deviate from that.

 

Further, they're trying to find the new "inefficiencies" when this is an organization that doesn't need to do that.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

 

Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal.

[Bertz]

I think it's pretty obvious that the issues with the Cubs offense right now are both bad performance and bad luck. I've been curious to see how much is attributable to each though. So I went to Fangraphs, and looked at each hitter's wOBA and their xwOBA. wOBA is a composite stat on the OBP scale, so average should be .320-.330. xwOBA is their expected line based on Statcast estimates from all their batted balls. Here's how the Cubs lineup and top bench guys measure by each (wOBA/xwOBA):

 

Happ - .261/.337

Contreras - .365/.354

Rizzo - .257/.322

Bryant - .392/.353

Joc - .192/.217

Baez - .284/.242

Heyward - .249/.253

Bote - .202/.303

 

Sogard - .171/.229

Duffy - .218/.399

Marisnick - .290/.301

 

So on the one hand, the good news is that the team has been very unlucky. Bryant and Baez have been fairly fortunate, and Contreras has gotten a smidge of good luck, but everyone else has been BABIP'd, several of them quite hard.

 

On the other hand, even if everyone hit based on their Statcast numbers, the offense would still be pretty bad. If you average the main 8's xwOBA's, you get .297, which still sucks. So like the team should be closer to the 20th ranked offense than the 30th, but being 20th is obviously still very much a problem.

 

It comes down to this for me...

 

Theo declared the offense "broken" nearly 30 months ago and they still have 7 of the 11 top players by Plate Appearances from 2018 on the team. They switched out Schwarber for his statistical clone in Pederson. And they switched out Zobrist, Russell and Almora for the far less talented trio of Sogard, Marsinick and Duffy. And they still have the same hitting coach.

 

This is basically the same group of players that has gone through bizarre extended offensive droughts in each of the previous three seasons, including scoring 1 or 0 runs in 10 of the last 21 games last season.

 

Why are they expecting an improved result?

 

Yeah. I actually like switching out Schwarber for Joc. Joc handles velocity, particularly up in the zone, much better than Schwarber. That is a widespread weakness on this roster, and Joc will help a bit. But like, clearly, this team needed actual on paper improvements, or at minimum 3-4 additional "style" moves like Joc to make the lineup less homogeneous and more difficult to pitch to.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Theo was doing what he could to give Jed as soft of a landing as possible, "falling on his sword" a little for him was probably easy enough. Whatever, doesn't really matter. They'll find a way to be boring as horsefeathers to watch, and still be bottom 1/3 of 2022 draft pool money and prospect haters can go on saying "who cares" and prospect huggers can rend their garments in a rage.

[soccer10k]

Cubs are now 30th as a team in BA/OBP/SLG.

 

Currently at a .561 OPS. The gap between the Cubs and 29th is the same as the gap between 29th and 9th.

[Cubswin11]

Because this front office has difficulty admitting when they're wrong. They have theories on how teams should be built and run and will not deviate from that.

 

Further, they're trying to find the new "inefficiencies" when this is an organization that doesn't need to do that.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

 

Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal.

I think it would’ve hard to completely overhaul the offense this past offseason for a lot of reasons (COVID stuff, most guys with little value with 1 year left and sucking, Ricketts with $, teams not willing to be overly aggressive trading for guys, etc.). That’s why the margins moves a lot of us wanted seemed to make the most sense. I think the scrap something together and either maybe we win the division or we have 4-8 really nice trade pieces come June/July was the clear thinking.

 

I don’t blame Jed for not completely fixing the offense/making all the moves necessary in 1 offseason given circumstances and am hopeful he can at least see the flaws of this build out and do/try better on the next competitive cycle and hope it was just Theo lip service on him always being a dissenting voice in the room on ideas/moves.

[Andy]

Because this front office has difficulty admitting when they're wrong. They have theories on how teams should be built and run and will not deviate from that.

 

Further, they're trying to find the new "inefficiencies" when this is an organization that doesn't need to do that.

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

 

Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal.

For all the talk about tanking getting the Cubs a title, the real reason is because they struck gold over and over again in those sign-and-flip trades. I'm not sure we can count on Jed being able to do that again, but you're right, they're probably going to try.

[Cubswin11]

If Theo is to believed from his exit press conference, Jed was always the guy pushing for change and moving on from guys and Theo was the guy who held on too long/was irrational about players/too attached. So at least Jed may realize what mostly all of us have the last 1.5-3 years and knows a team offensive profile like this doesn’t work moving forward.

 

Sure but he did very little to change that dynamic this offseason, even despite a partial teardown by trading Yu for nothing of value over the next several years. If they were going to try to go with a "put all our faith in the pitch lab" strategy, why wouldn't you try to also change the dynamic of the offense when it was a well known weakness heading into the season. The more I think about it the more I realize that some of those signings the Cubs did make seem like they were made to be flipped at the deadline. The one thing the Cubs do have right now is a lot of attractive trade pieces for July and I think thats what were going to see happen in July. Sure they hoped that they could scratch together a quasi competitive season in a weak division, but assuming it didnt work out they were going to go into July ready to deal.

For all the talk about tanking getting the Cubs a title, the real reason is because they struck gold over and over again in those sign-and-flip trades. I'm not sure we can count on Jed being able to do that again, but you're right, they're probably going to try.

They hit gold on everything, the first round bat picks all hit at insane levels, the flip trades worked (Jake and Kyle), the reclamation/buy low trades worked (Rizzo, Monty, Montero), the all in trade (Chapman) worked, the FA signings all worked (Zobrist, Lester, Lackey, Hammel). They just hit everything they tried.

[CubinNY]

What does the 2022 draft look like?

[Derwood]

Cubs regulars who currently have a negative fWAR:

 

Ian Happ: -0.1

Anthony Rizzo: -0.2

Jason Heyward: -0.2

David Bote: -0.2

Joc Pederson: -0.4

[Post Count Padder]

Steele and Strop sent down for Winkler and Workman coming off COVID IL. I still don't know why we're choosing to give Winkler innings. Could say same for Maples. He is what he is at this point, he'll strike out three in one inning after walking the bases loaded. Steele looked pretty good, I'm sure he'll get another look soon. That reminded me, is Kyle Ryan dead?

[Bertz]

Steele and Strop sent down for Winkler and Workman coming off COVID IL. I still don't know why we're choosing to give Winkler innings. Could say same for Maples. He is what he is at this point, he'll strike out three in one inning after walking the bases loaded. Steele looked pretty good, I'm sure he'll get another look soon. That reminded me, is Kyle Ryan dead?

 

Remember the Rays' bullpen clock thing from last October?

 

 

Winkler gives the Cubs a 3 o'clock guy. I'd rather have someone with more actual skill, but it appears the Cubs really value that extra funk.

[Post Count Padder]

Replace Dan Winkler with Shelby Miller. WTF was that?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

[We Got The Whole 9]

Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere but Olney is reporting that Baez turned down our 180m offer before last season.

 

Javy has 1 and 2 year offers waiting for him in FA IMO. Nobodys gonna want to lock that bat up unless he posts a 2018 line again and even then the suitors will be few.

[soccer10k]

Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere but Olney is reporting that Baez turned down our 180m offer before last season.

 

Javy has 1 and 2 year offers waiting for him in FA IMO. Nobodys gonna want to lock that bat up unless he posts a 2018 line again and even then the suitors will be few.

 

Javy's going to regret that for the rest of his life.

[UMFan83]

Haven't seen it discussed here anywhere but Olney is reporting that Baez turned down our 180m offer before last season.

 

Javy has 1 and 2 year offers waiting for him in FA IMO. Nobodys gonna want to lock that bat up unless he posts a 2018 line again and even then the suitors will be few.

 

Yeesh can’t believe that. As much as I loved Javy at his best he was the one I was always most wary about an extension with. His best skills rely on speed and quick instincts. He’s not a player that can still find a way to be a productive hitter when that bat speed goes and his defense naturally takes a step back as he ages. But I was willing to accept an extension because Javy at his best is pure unbridled joy to watch everyday.

[Omar]

here's one good thing about the 2021 cubs:

 

they haven't been swept.

 

[CubinNY]

I don't think the Cubs are this bad of a team, but they are not a good team. I expect regression to the mean to happen at some point and they go on an extended winning streak, then will just be mediocre until the deadline. Then they'll be bad.

[Omar]

[UMFan83]

 

I've wondered about that but I've seen that at many other stadiums and arenas where fans are allowed. Assuming its to keep us mouth breathing fans away from the players. Particularly important with our dumbass team who won't get vaccinated

[Omar]

 

I've wondered about that but I've seen that at many other stadiums and arenas where fans are allowed. Assuming its to keep us mouth breathing fans away from the players. Particularly important with our dumbass team who won't get vaccinated

 

The players are almost always a good 10-20 feet away from the bleacher fans (Pre-Covid).

 

the lower deck grandstand fans get in much closer proximity to the dugouts/players than the 3 outfielders do to the bleachers.

[Derwood]

Ricketts won't say no to that money. We may never get those seats back again (only half joking)