General Cubs Chit-Chat

[imb]

7 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

wut

you sweet summer child. i cant wait till you meet Kyle when his adhd kicks in

[Ding Dong Johnson]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Sofa said:

Kyle briefly flirted with becoming a Dodgers fan a few years ago.

I think he’s still a Cardinals fan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, imb said:

you sweet summer child. i cant wait till you meet Kyle when his adhd kicks in

But the Rockies?

[Duke Silver]

Really impressive to see Kyle still has his best stuff after a lengthy absence. It's like watching Kyle Schwarber step onto the field after missing the whole season and smacking doubles off of Corey Kluber.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It was Cardinals and autism, not Rockies and ADHD.

Besides, we're all Twins fans now. We got bought out.

I'm almost positive it was after the 2008 season.  And checking baseball-refernece, i'm now 100% sure.

Cubs had just gotten swept in the playoffs for the second straight year, giving them 9 consecutive playoff losses and a 7-16 playoff record since I was old enough to care.

My entire family are Cardinals fans except for the one weird aunt I bonded with when I was a kid, so I felt like maybe I had missed out on my birthright of an actually good team that sustained success.  I happened to be in St. Louis for a college media convention in 2006 and was hanging out there when they won the World Series, seemed pretty fun.

So that offseason I decided screw it, I'm a Cardinals fan.  I made an account on Gateway Redbirds under a fake name, discussed their offseason moves, tried to psyche myself up.  On Cardinals opening day, I watched the whole game, and when they blew it in the 9th on a bases loaded triple, I realized I wasn't sad and it was actually pretty funny, so the whole plan didn't work and I hadn't formed any emotional attachment (much like most of my dating in my 30s).  

Edited March 29, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot
telling the story

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That was also when I got in a long argument with Dan Szymbroski (sp?) on baseball think factory, with me insisting that 9 straight losses, all by multiple runs, was such a severe result that it implied some sort of underlying effect was more likely than variance.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

That was also when I got in a long argument with Dan Szymbroski (sp?) on baseball think factory, with me insisting that 9 straight losses, all by multiple runs, was such a severe result that it implied some sort of underlying effect was more likely than variance.

Was it?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Was it?

No I was just mad 

[David]

3 hours ago, Duke Silver said:

Really impressive to see Kyle still has his best stuff after a lengthy absence. It's like watching Kyle Schwarber step onto the field after missing the whole season and smacking doubles off of Corey Kluber.

Ha, but as someone who has been here this whole time, it's more like that seeing you in here lol

[David]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It was Cardinals and autism, not Rockies and ADHD.

Besides, we're all Twins fans now. We got bought out.

I'm almost positive it was after the 2008 season.  And checking baseball-refernece, i'm now 100% sure.

Cubs had just gotten swept in the playoffs for the second straight year, giving them 9 consecutive playoff losses and a 7-16 playoff record since I was old enough to care.

My entire family are Cardinals fans except for the one weird aunt I bonded with when I was a kid, so I felt like maybe I had missed out on my birthright of an actually good team that sustained success.  I happened to be in St. Louis for a college media convention in 2006 and was hanging out there when they won the World Series, seemed pretty fun.

So that offseason I decided screw it, I'm a Cardinals fan.  I made an account on Gateway Redbirds under a fake name, discussed their offseason moves, tried to psyche myself up.  On Cardinals opening day, I watched the whole game, and when they blew it in the 9th on a bases loaded triple, I realized I wasn't sad and it was actually pretty funny, so the whole plan didn't work and I hadn't formed any emotional attachment (much like most of my dating in my 30s).  

At a complete loss for words imagining that you would become a Cubs fan in a family full of Cardinal fans.  Can't see that at all.  Sounds nothing like you.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

7 hours ago, David said:

At a complete loss for words imagining that you would become a Cubs fan in a family full of Cardinal fans.  Can't see that at all.  Sounds nothing like you.

https://youtu.be/8mwwdsUt_HI

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Besides, we're all Twins fans now. We got bought out.

Hey now, I'm barely a Twins fan.

Have you looked at their postseason record? At best, I tolerate the team at this point.

(only half joking)

[Post Count Padder]

Happy Opening Day 

[UMFan83]

Had a random discussion with some friends about it and wanted to see if anyone had an opinion on the following question:

Is Jed "trying" this year?  Did he build this team with the intent to make the playoffs?

My response was that it was similar to last year where we built a team with the hope that the pieces fit well enough to be in the hunt by the deadline.  If we were then we might buy, otherwise, we sell.  Obviously, this year is a little bit further along with some of our additions.  We don't have as much garbage on the roster in 2023, but there are still obvious holes on the team.  I think Jed hopes to win, but if you caught him at a candid moment he'd admit that the team is more likely than not to miss the playoffs and that he's still building and ideally targeting next year to "try".

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think this entire concept that every season has to be a "try" or "not try" is a bad way to run a sports team and i hate that fans have bought into it so much.

We talked *so* much poop about "sustained success" in the early Theo days, but here we are trying to play tank and spank again. meanwhile the Cardinals have had one losing season since 2000.

If he's not "trying" then fire him and bring in someone who will try.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I think this entire concept that every season has to be a "try" or "not try" is a bad way to run a sports team and i hate that fans have bought into it so much.

I think it's also an oversimplification, at least when describing front offices(owners, sure, especially on the extremes).  Every front office is trying to win and win consistently, and there's a spectrum of investing in the current roster v. the future roster in order to do that.  No team is all the way at the end of sacrifice everything to win today(think Dombrowski or DiPoto on steroids), so 'trying' becomes a matter of personal definition/taste.  

For this year's Cubs in particular, I think Jed is using all the resources available to him, and he's doing so with an eye on the team's current performance.  He's spent money on short term deals(Mancini, Smyly, Bellinger) where he could've mined for longer term assets for much cheaper but with less certainty.  At the same time, he's clearly not making moves that have significant downside for the '24-25+ team(mostly around commitments to post-prime players), so I think he's eyes wide open that the likely outcome is this year's team isn't playoff bound

[Irrelevant Dude]

I was out of town for the first series and got to listen to a lot of the radio broadcasts while in the car.  The Cubs being sponsored by Northshore Adult Diapers and reading that ad multiple times per game feels like something straight out of Major League.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

13 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think it's also an oversimplification, at least when describing front offices(owners, sure, especially on the extremes).  Every front office is trying to win and win consistently, and there's a spectrum of investing in the current roster v. the future roster in order to do that.  No team is all the way at the end of sacrifice everything to win today(think Dombrowski or DiPoto on steroids), so 'trying' becomes a matter of personal definition/taste.  

For this year's Cubs in particular, I think Jed is using all the resources available to him, and he's doing so with an eye on the team's current performance.  He's spent money on short term deals(Mancini, Smyly, Bellinger) where he could've mined for longer term assets for much cheaper but with less certainty.  At the same time, he's clearly not making moves that have significant downside for the '24-25+ team(mostly around commitments to post-prime players), so I think he's eyes wide open that the likely outcome is this year's team isn't playoff bound

 

Agree. This is more or less what I was saying.   Sure, there are times you decide you're a little closer than normal and you're willing to be a little more aggressive, and sometimes the opposite happens, but it's a small adjustment and for the most part your fundamental existence should be trying to win the games in front of you, because seasons are a very finite resource.

Fans everywhere have latched onto tank and spank as some big brain strategy, a borderline moral imperative, and it's given them an incredible pass on sucking.

I knew 10 years ago this day would come, but I had a cubs fan tell me this week that the current regime was going to be the first to really prioritize building through the farm system and that the reason the Cubs aren't good now is they've never committed to that before.  

Edited April 3, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[jersey cubs fan]

Jed explicitly said the primary motivation behind their moves this year was to dissuade people from believing they were hoarding cash. They obviously aren’t trying to win the division or contend, but they are trying to stop the bleeding of fan interest. If you can win more games then you lose this season you can start convincing the fans you might actually be good one day again. 

[CubinNY]

17 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

 

Agree. This is more or less what I was saying.   Sure, there are times you decide you're a little closer than normal and you're willing to be a little more aggressive, and sometimes the opposite happens, but it's a small adjustment and for the most part your fundamental existence should be trying to win the games in front of you, because seasons are a very finite resource.

Fans everywhere have latched onto tank and spank as some big brain strategy, a borderline moral imperative, and it's given them an incredible pass on sucking.

I knew 10 years ago this day would come, but I had a cubs fan tell me this week that the current regime was going to be the first to really prioritize building through the farm system and that the reason the Cubs aren't good now is they've never committed to that before.  

The Cubs have not been very good at evaluating talent and developing talent. Evaluating is probably more critical than developing, but that's important too. It's like the pitch lab, they're trying to squeeze out every ounce of talent so a guy can be a usable bullpen arm. Well done!, but what's the point? Couple that with hardly ever wanting to pay for "the guy" in free agency, and when they do they get burned. 

The Cardinals excel at evaluating and developing talent. And they are even better at knowing which guys to castoff and which to keep when they do make it. They are better at evaluating ML talent in free agency, and they aren't afraid to pay.

I think Tommy Boy has his own Tommy Boy in Jed. They are of one mind and I don't think it bodes well for Cubs fans but bodes well for both Tommys.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Jed explicitly said the primary motivation behind their moves this year was to dissuade people from believing they were hoarding cash. They obviously aren’t trying to win the division or contend, but they are trying to stop the bleeding of fan interest.

I would argue that they are still trying to contend, but the definition of contending is much different in the modern era.  All a team really has to do to contend is hang around .500 for most of the season to stay in the Wild Card picture.  If enough things go right, they just might be able to squeak into the playoffs.  The Cubs certainly aren't trying to win at all costs, but they are trying to contend within a certain set of self-imposed parameters.  I do not believe that they spent money simply for cosmetic purposes.  They are trying to straddle the line between building for the future, while throwing some darts at the present and hoping for the best.

The reality is that this team has the potential to be stuck in baseball purgatory for awhile.  They look like a middle-of-the-road team that might be good enough to get into the playoffs in certain years, but is never bad enough to draft the type of high-end talent that built the 2016 team.  The minor league depth has certainly improved, but I'm not sold on anyone in the organization being the kind of player who can get the team to the next level.  The Cubs have made it clear that they aren't going to spend their way out of this hole, and neither they nor the fanbase have the appetite for a continued tank.  That leaves a lot of wishful thinking that they are somehow going to be able to evaluate talent better than anyone else and/or strike gold on minor leaguers outside of the Top 10 draft picks.  As things currently stand, I just don't see a likely path that leads to this team being a consistent contender in the near or semi-near future.

They are trying to win.  They are just trying to do it in a very specific way that is unlikely to come together again in the way they seem to think it will.

[Sammy Sofa]

My dumb way of oversimplifying it is that while, yes, ending up around .500 often will be enough to be competitive, the Cubs ownership/FO seem to be actively aiming FOR that middle.  Arguably no team should ever be doing that, but especially not one with as much money and BS talk as the Cubs.

[cl smooth]

6 minutes ago, Sammy Sofa said:

My dumb way of oversimplifying it is that while, yes, ending up around .500 often will be enough to be competitive, the Cubs ownership/FO seem to be actively aiming FOR that middle.  Arguably no team should ever be doing that, but especially not one with as much money and BS talk as the Cubs.

This screams the Andy MacPhail “compete within the division” horseshit we were fed as fans during the 90’s: keep the team interesting enough so the fans don’t abandon the team entirely. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

8 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

This screams the Andy MacPhail “compete within the division” horseshit we were fed as fans during the 90’s: keep the team interesting enough so the fans don’t abandon the team entirely. 

At least Andy MacPhail had to try to feed us that every year to keep us happy.  Now you can tell fans that you need to rebuild for three years before you can even try to compete within the division.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In the last 5 years, 6 teams have averaged a 90 win season over that timeframe: Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Braves, and Brewers.  The closest commonality those teams have is not anything related to payroll or spending, but to player development, in particular through the farm system.  The next two closest teams are the Cardinals and Guardians which furthers the point. In the current environment(teams hoard prospects, FAs are almost all 30+ and carry draft penalties), if you are not good at player development, you will run out of rope and the team will suffer, we've seen this happen to the Cubs first hand, but the Red Sox, Nationals, and Giants are big market teams that have seen this happen to them too.  What's especially bad is that the results of player development(especially thru the farm) are a lagging indicator, so by the time that well dries up you will be in for more pain in the short term even if you address the problems.  

 

What that means is that if you diagnose your org is bad at player development *today*, it's very difficult to keep the ship afloat in the ensuing years.  This is the realization that Theo/Jed had around 2019-2020, and the things they believe they fixed are just now starting to begin to trickle to the MLB level(compare the excitement over this year's Iowa roster to the last...5 years? 8?), and that informs Jed's aggressiveness for 2023 in particular.  He clearly believes they have a pipeline of good players and the faucet essentially gets turned on this year(Wesneski, Mervis, Morel, Davis, etc) and won't stop afterwards if they're doing their job right.  But without that in place there's a ceiling to how good they can be, and he wasn't willing to borrow much from 2024 and beyond to prioritize 2023 when it's supposed to be the first competitive year of many.  So he took the payroll higher than it has been in years(both nominally and relative to the league) to raise the floor of the team to make this year as good as it can be.  As a result this year should be better than last year and they should be pretty good even if they aren't a playoff team, but it's still the proof of concept and there should be belief that further investment(trading prospects, more FA aggression, going into the LT) is in the plans for 2024 and beyond.  I can understand that not everyone has that belief and that's fine, but we've seen that skepticism-as-default thinking doesn't have a perfect track record either.