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Sammy Sofa

By Sammy Sofa,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

ZiPS *hates* the pitching staff. My god. Even Yu and Kyle it likes but has pretty modest innings totals for. On the offensive side, no one projects as a star anymore. Rizzo and Baez each project at 3.3 WAR to lead the team.

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UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

ZiPS *hates* the pitching staff. My god. Even Yu and Kyle it likes but has pretty modest innings totals for. On the offensive side, no one projects as a star anymore. Rizzo and Baez each project at 3.3 WAR to lead the team.

 

Can "It might still be enough" be our team slogan for 2021?

jersey cubs fan GOAT

jersey cubs fan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

ZiPS *hates* the pitching staff. My god. Even Yu and Kyle it likes but has pretty modest innings totals for. On the offensive side, no one projects as a star anymore. Rizzo and Baez each project at 3.3 WAR to lead the team.

 

Can "It might still be enough" be our team slogan for 2021?

We’ll have to Cub up with something better

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
God that's bleak.

 

The good news is that ZIPS is rarely right

 

How did their projections for last year do against how our pitching staff actually performed? I guess thats hard to figure out since the season was so short, but I'm at the point where I dont care how bad they are projecting our pen to be...we've obviously been able to cobble together something resembling a solid bullpen most seasons. I'm not sure if a projection system can account for the Cubs scooping up trash heap guys and quickly rebuilding them into passable bullpen arms. All teams do this to some extent but it seems like the Cubs either manage to do it more, or have a higher success rate.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
God that's bleak.

 

The good news is that ZIPS is rarely right

 

How did their projections for last year do against how our pitching staff actually performed? I guess thats hard to figure out since the season was so short, but I'm at the point where I dont care how bad they are projecting our pen to be...we've obviously been able to cobble together something resembling a solid bullpen most seasons. I'm not sure if a projection system can account for the Cubs scooping up trash heap guys and quickly rebuilding them into passable bullpen arms. All teams do this to some extent but it seems like the Cubs either manage to do it more, or have a higher success rate.

 

Yeah the problem is two parts IMO. First, the depth chart has to settle on 8 names, whereas in reality there's probably 3-4 spots that are truly up for grabs, and will be dictated by in season performance. Second is that these are 50th percentile projections. If the Cubs have 10 arms competing for those last three spots like they did last year, you expect one guy to hit his 90th percentile projection, one to hit his 80th, etc. So while these 8 names mean out to a fairly crummy projection, in reality the stock portfolio approach to bullpen arms is gonna net out much better than this, though potentially not til after a pretty rocky start. And that's giving the Cubs zero credit for any Rays' style devil magic.

 

I imagine this year we're going to see if that approach works for the rotation. I expect Jed will bring in a veteran or three, at least one good enough to be pencilled into a spot. But at least two spots are gonna be a battle royale, with Mills and Alzolay the favorites but not having particularly long leashes.

  • 2 weeks later...
Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)
Cubs not going to hire a GM this season.

Sounds like it will happen in season when they can face to face meet. I honestly don’t think it’s that big of a deal to go through the offseason without one. Jed/Kantroviz and whoever else can handle things. And taking a longer look at potential hires and really surveying things and meeting with as many people as possible is probably the smartest thing vs rushing in to a hire that isn’t overly necessary right now.

 

Edited by Cubswin11
Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So, are we playing with 2 outfielders this season?

Why not? We did when Schwarber was in left.

 

Just kidding. I shouldn’t have done that. You’re in enough pain given your username.

Schwarber Fan Cooperstown

Schwarber Fan

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
So, are we playing with 2 outfielders this season?

Why not? We did when Schwarber was in left.

 

Just kidding. I shouldn’t have done that. You’re in enough pain given your username.

 

 

Eh, it’s like my fifth name. At this point I should just revert back to Aramis. Sad to see Schwarbs go though.

Bull ACL Cubs

Bull

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
So, are we playing with 2 outfielders this season?

Why not? We did when Schwarber was in left.

 

Just kidding. I shouldn’t have done that. You’re in enough pain given your username.

 

 

Eh, it’s like my fifth name. At this point I should just revert back to Aramis. Sad to see Schwarbs go though.

 

Same.

 

So...

Aramisfan

Marmolfan?

...

...

Schwarberfan

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