General Cubs Chit-Chat

[HawkeTrackler]

Anyone have a decent printable schedule for 2020?

[Backtobanks]

Anyone have a decent printable schedule for 2020?

 

 

http://content.mlb.com/documents/2/7/2/303733272/Chicago_Cubs_2019_Printable_Schedule.pdf

[Omar]

Thats 2019

[David]

man i really miss god mode jake

[Bertz]

[biittner77]

 

I feel like there should be more like 40 NRIs seeing as how the Cubs weren't giving out MLB contracts or signing anyone.

[Splendid Splinter]

Angel Echevarria passed away yesterday. He was only 48.

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-colorado-rockies-chicago-cubs-outfielder-angel-echevarria-dies-232150387.html

[David]

[Bertz]

I thought this was interesting:

 

 

Basically, the idea is that xwOBA via statcast can routinely over/underrate certain guys A) because they're notably fast or slow or B) because their lateral launch angle is bad (e.g. you hit the ball really yard but are very easy to shift against), and this is an attempt in correcting for the latter.

 

The rightmost column is essentially how lucky guys were based on launch angle (vertical and lateral) and exit velo. I threw this table into excel and calculated standard deviations, and found that of the 337 guys on the list 17 of them were more than 2 standard deviations from the mean. That's a good rule of thumb for what is sufficiently outlier-y. Of the 17, 3 will be in the NL Central next year: Keston Hiura and Phil Ervin on the lucky end, and Justin Smoak on the unlucky end. Hiura in particular stands out, as he was the second luckiest guy on the list, and as an average runner you can't just chalk the delta up to his ability as a runner.

 

If you lower the bar to 1.5 standard deviations, Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Kevin Newman get added on the lucky side. That being said, unlike Hiura all three guys are pretty fast, so you expect that they should overperform this metric by a decent bit.

 

For the Cubs, nothing stood out too much. Contreras and Bote were both at 1.3, but as above average runners that's not super alarming. Bryant and Baez were at 1, but again given their speed that's about expected. Schwarber was the biggest laggard on the team at -1, and he's an average runner. So maybe bake in a little bit of extra good fortune for him going forward.

[Tim]

I thought this was interesting:

 

 

Basically, the idea is that xwOBA via statcast can routinely over/underrate certain guys A) because they're notably fast or slow or B) because their lateral launch angle is bad (e.g. you hit the ball really yard but are very easy to shift against), and this is an attempt in correcting for the latter.

 

The rightmost column is essentially how lucky guys were based on launch angle (vertical and lateral) and exit velo. I threw this table into excel and calculated standard deviations, and found that of the 337 guys on the list 17 of them were more than 2 standard deviations from the mean. That's a good rule of thumb for what is sufficiently outlier-y. Of the 17, 3 will be in the NL Central next year: Keston Hiura and Phil Ervin on the lucky end, and Justin Smoak on the unlucky end. Hiura in particular stands out, as he was the second luckiest guy on the list, and as an average runner you can't just chalk the delta up to his ability as a runner.

 

If you lower the bar to 1.5 standard deviations, Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Kevin Newman get added on the lucky side. That being said, unlike Hiura all three guys are pretty fast, so you expect that they should overperform this metric by a decent bit.

 

For the Cubs, nothing stood out too much. Contreras and Bote were both at 1.3, but as above average runners that's not super alarming. Bryant and Baez were at 1, but again given their speed that's about expected. Schwarber was the biggest laggard on the team at -1, and he's an average runner. So maybe bake in a little bit of extra good fortune for him going forward.

It would be interesting to get multiple years in there to see if it autocorrelates.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I thought this was interesting:

 

 

Basically, the idea is that xwOBA via statcast can routinely over/underrate certain guys A) because they're notably fast or slow or B) because their lateral launch angle is bad (e.g. you hit the ball really yard but are very easy to shift against), and this is an attempt in correcting for the latter.

 

The rightmost column is essentially how lucky guys were based on launch angle (vertical and lateral) and exit velo. I threw this table into excel and calculated standard deviations, and found that of the 337 guys on the list 17 of them were more than 2 standard deviations from the mean. That's a good rule of thumb for what is sufficiently outlier-y. Of the 17, 3 will be in the NL Central next year: Keston Hiura and Phil Ervin on the lucky end, and Justin Smoak on the unlucky end. Hiura in particular stands out, as he was the second luckiest guy on the list, and as an average runner you can't just chalk the delta up to his ability as a runner.

 

If you lower the bar to 1.5 standard deviations, Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Kevin Newman get added on the lucky side. That being said, unlike Hiura all three guys are pretty fast, so you expect that they should overperform this metric by a decent bit.

 

For the Cubs, nothing stood out too much. Contreras and Bote were both at 1.3, but as above average runners that's not super alarming. Bryant and Baez were at 1, but again given their speed that's about expected. Schwarber was the biggest laggard on the team at -1, and he's an average runner. So maybe bake in a little bit of extra good fortune for him going forward.

 

Is there a strong R/L correlation w/r/t lucky/unlucky? Off the top of my head, it would make sense to me for the lefties to lag , because even if they're fast, if they're hitting it hard they're hitting it to the pull side where there's a shorter throw.

[Bertz]

I thought this was interesting:

 

 

Basically, the idea is that xwOBA via statcast can routinely over/underrate certain guys A) because they're notably fast or slow or B) because their lateral launch angle is bad (e.g. you hit the ball really yard but are very easy to shift against), and this is an attempt in correcting for the latter.

 

The rightmost column is essentially how lucky guys were based on launch angle (vertical and lateral) and exit velo. I threw this table into excel and calculated standard deviations, and found that of the 337 guys on the list 17 of them were more than 2 standard deviations from the mean. That's a good rule of thumb for what is sufficiently outlier-y. Of the 17, 3 will be in the NL Central next year: Keston Hiura and Phil Ervin on the lucky end, and Justin Smoak on the unlucky end. Hiura in particular stands out, as he was the second luckiest guy on the list, and as an average runner you can't just chalk the delta up to his ability as a runner.

 

If you lower the bar to 1.5 standard deviations, Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Kevin Newman get added on the lucky side. That being said, unlike Hiura all three guys are pretty fast, so you expect that they should overperform this metric by a decent bit.

 

For the Cubs, nothing stood out too much. Contreras and Bote were both at 1.3, but as above average runners that's not super alarming. Bryant and Baez were at 1, but again given their speed that's about expected. Schwarber was the biggest laggard on the team at -1, and he's an average runner. So maybe bake in a little bit of extra good fortune for him going forward.

 

Is there a strong R/L correlation w/r/t lucky/unlucky? Off the top of my head, it would make sense to me for the lefties to lag , because even if they're fast, if they're hitting it hard they're hitting it to the pull side where there's a shorter throw.

 

Looking at this data, the guys this analysis are adjusting in a positive direction compared to MLB.com's raw xwOBA are primarily lefties or switch hitters (7 of the top 10) while the guys it's dinging are righties (7 of the bottom 10). I would have agreed with you and expected the opposite.

 

What's even more interesting is that the extremes in both directions are slow guys, catchers and sluggers. I'm not sure what to make of that.

[Post Count Padder]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/02/theo-epstein-cubs-free-agents.html

 

MLBTR graded each "major" Theo FA signing with the Cubs

[Bertz]

 

“If you were in the room, (you would understand),” Hendricks said, describing the daily 9 a.m. meetings that Ross is running in the Nike Performance Center. “The guys are rushing to the theater to get in there early. When he comes out, (it’s) all eyes on him. Just the way he’s talking to us, it’s real. He’s just being the same guy he’s always been, bringing that intensity, the accountability. It fires guys up right away in the morning.

 

“We head out to the field and we just want to kill all the work that we have that day and get better. Instead of just kind of getting ready. Not that it (was) going through the motions, but it’s different than just going out there and getting ready and getting prepared for your first game. It’s taking advantage of every rep out there and focusing on every detail because that’s what’s going to make the difference at the end.”

[Banedon]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[UMFan83]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Amazing.

 

I was going to make a post the other day about how its strange that we haven't heard a peep about Russell signing anywhere, even as a minor league FA. Figured some shitty team out there would take a chance on him. But then I though 'horsefeathers Addison Russell, he doesnt deserve any more discussion here'

[Tim]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Amazing.

 

I was going to make a post the other day about how its strange that we haven't heard a peep about Russell signing anywhere, even as a minor league FA. Figured some horsefeathers team out there would take a chance on him. But then I though 'horsefeathers Addison Russell, he doesnt deserve any more discussion here'

Who?

[David]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Amazing.

 

I was going to make a post the other day about how its strange that we haven't heard a peep about Russell signing anywhere, even as a minor league FA. Figured some horsefeathers team out there would take a chance on him. But then I though 'horsefeathers Addison Russell, he doesnt deserve any more discussion here'

 

I think you'd be more likely to see him end up in Japan or something.

[Post Count Padder]

Well that sucks

 

Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

[Bertz]

Well that sucks

 

Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

 

I wonder if this is also going to be a Kenley Jansen situation where he can't make the Coors Field trip anymore.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Well that sucks

 

Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

 

I wonder if this is also going to be a Kenley Jansen situation where he can't make the Coors Field trip anymore.

I would doubt it.

[Andy]

Well that sucks

 

Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

This is why you sign 50 quad-A relievers, I guess.

[Sosa21MVP]

Watching the replay of the Sandberg game on the Marquee network. Top of the 10th, Gary Matthews got denied catching a foul ball almost exactly at the Bartman spot. I laughed.

[NOLA]

PSA: The 1979 Phillies at Cubs game is on MLBTV.