Projecting the 2016 Cubs

[David]

Clay Davenport's projections. Pretty high on the Dodgers.

 

http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml

[Cubswin11]

Who's Clay Davenport?

[David]

Who's Clay Davenport?

 

Co-founder of Baseball Prospectus

[Clem Fandango]

Who's Clay Davenport?

 

Co-founder of Baseball Prospectus

 

And of the West Hampton Davenports

[Cubswin11]

Who's Clay Davenport?

 

Co-founder of Baseball Prospectus

Got it, are his projections usually pretty accurate?

[CubsWin]

So it looks like, according to him, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler suffer some pretty big injuries missing a combined 97 games. The under 25 guys don't improve very much if at all. Edwards, P. Johnson and Jokisch each get five starts instead of Warren, Wood or Cahill. LaStella, Szczur (who probably doesn't make it out of ST with the Cubs), Coghlan and Baez (despite the fact that he's one of the best and most versatile defenders on the roster) each DH 16 games while Schwarber and Soler DH none. And Hector Rondon regresses big time despite being 28 and at his peak.

 

I agree with much of the rotation's projection. I expect Arrieta and Lackey to regress a bit. It seems to me Heyward's numbers are low but in the ballpark. Rizzo maintains. But a lot of these just seem weird. Not completely unreasonable, just weird.

 

I get that these are not predictions but projections, and that they are the result of some sort of rigid algorithm without applying baseball logic outside of the math, but... really? Couldn't your projection system account for a little bit more logic and baseball sense than that?

[Tracer Bullet]

Who's Clay Davenport?

 

Co-founder of Baseball Prospectus

 

what's baseball prospectus?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

[David]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

 

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer and not my phone. And complaining about projections being too low when they ultimately combine for a 95 win median team projection seems kinda silly.

 

Your last paragraph seems to ring especially true when our rookies came in as big league ready as their play showed last year. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement and I would be more than happy if they were about the same as last year.

[Tim]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

 

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer and not my phone. And complaining about projections being too low when they ultimately combine for a 95 win median team projection seems kinda silly.

 

Your last paragraph seems to ring especially true when our rookies came in as big league ready as their play showed last year. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement and I would be more than happy if they were about the same as last year.

I'm expecting improvements from Russell and Soler. I'm not expecting Bryant or Schwarbs to get much better (and both could/should regress some).

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm expecting Russell to kick ass and Soler to be the Cubs' version of Spinal Tap's drummer.

[David]

I would like to see those things and it is certainly one of many possible outcomes, but I wouldn't say significant improvement should be expected or projected.

 

Edit: this was in response to Tim's post

[Tim]

I would like to see those things and it is certainly one of many possible outcomes, but I wouldn't say significant improvement should be expected or projected.

 

Edit: this was in response to Tim's post

I meant to imply that those are my expectations, not what should be projected by a system.

[Gilby]

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer

 

lol

 

He was awesome in 2015, so maybe it won't be that big of improvement, but I'm expecting some truly epic seasons from Bryant over these next few years. Like tapping into that 45 dong power while still being able to run fast and play good infield defense before he gets older and stiffer.

[NonProfitCow]

^^ Same on Bryant....I believe 2016-2018 Bryant is going to be an absolute monster.

 

Over/Under for Russell in 2016:

 

.260/.340/.440 / 15-18 HR

Way under.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

^^ Same on Bryant....I believe 2016-2018 Bryant is going to be an absolute monster.

 

Over/Under for Russell in 2016:

 

.260/.340/.440 / 15-18 HR

Way under.

What's "way"? I'd say closer to 250/320/410 with 15-18 HR very likely.

[radarluv1]

^^ Same on Bryant....I believe 2016-2018 Bryant is going to be an absolute monster.

 

Over/Under for Russell in 2016:

 

.260/.340/.440 / 15-18 HR

Way under.

What's "way"? I'd say closer to 250/320/410 with 15-18 HR very likely.

 

780 OPS with his D would make him the top SS in the game. He's not there yet. Anyone have a rough idea on what difference 730 vs 780 OPS would mean to WAR or runs created?

[CubsWin]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

Those weren't the ones I was calling weird, though. You missed my point entirely, but that's on me as I was not specific about which ones I found weird.

 

I expect a reliever to regress after having a great year, but not that much. That was weird.

I expect Russell and Soler to improve a bit at the plate, but projecting them the way he did wasn't weird.

I expect Warren and Cahill to get shots at starts before Johnson and Jokisch. That was weird.

I expect injuries for players who have a history of them to be factored in. That wasn't weird.

If I were to create a projection system that included breaking down who gets games at DH, I wouldn't project Baez to get 16 and Schwarber/Soler to get none. That was really weird.

[CubsWin]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

 

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer and not my phone. And complaining about projections being too low when they ultimately combine for a 95 win median team projection seems kinda silly.

 

Your last paragraph seems to ring especially true when our rookies came in as big league ready as their play showed last year. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement and I would be more than happy if they were about the same as last year.

Unfortunately, I never clarified which ones I found weird or complained they were too low. I was writing with the idea that it wouldn't be clinically picked apart. Just off the cuff generalities written while under the weather.

 

It's a only a little weird to me to predict two guys with less than a full season each will miss 97 games combined, but I can understand a machine spitting it out. All were reasonable to me except for Rondon. He had him dropping from 1.67 and a WHIP of 1.00 to 3.32 and a WHIP of 1.18. That's worse than his career averages and way worse than 2014. If he's in his 30s, I could understand that projection a bit more. That's the one I didn't get. Some of the other ones were just...weird. The starts by Johnson and Jokisch. Who's playing DH.

 

But hey, these are projections churned out by an algorithm based on a lot of players past performances, not nuanced predictions.

[Gilby]

^^ Same on Bryant....I believe 2016-2018 Bryant is going to be an absolute monster.

 

Over/Under for Russell in 2016:

 

.260/.340/.440 / 15-18 HR

Way under.

 

...he says nervously while tugging at the collar of his shirt

[Tracer Bullet]

I don't think there is anything weird about projecting regression from just about any reliever coming off a good year, and Russell and Soler as injury risks seems reasonable.

 

The under 25s shouldn't project to much improvement. 23-25 has alway been a period of small improvement on average, and in the current era there is even some suggestion that there is no improvement at all in that age group (on average, obviously some players will and some will regress).

 

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer and not my phone. And complaining about projections being too low when they ultimately combine for a 95 win median team projection seems kinda silly.

 

Your last paragraph seems to ring especially true when our rookies came in as big league ready as their play showed last year. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement and I would be more than happy if they were about the same as last year.

I'm expecting improvements from Russell and Soler. I'm not expecting Bryant or Schwarbs to get much better (and both could/should regress some).

 

So their rookie seasons will be their peaks?

[dawson1989]

I expect Schwarber to struggle. Too much hit and miss still to his swing. Bryant should improve a bit, Soler will either have it figured out or be sent to the minors and Russell will get more contact in a .260, .320, .400 way.

 

It should all add up to a top notch offense and I expect Maddon to play the hot hitter a lot with constant lineup and defensive movement.

[davell]

I think Schwarbers K rate goes down actually. He's not been known as a huge K guy. His ascent to the majors was extremely quick, he'll start adjusting some, especially against lefties. It was his first full professional season and with the instant success, he swung out of his shoes more often than he will in the future. Don't get me wrong, I think he's a 20% K type in his prime. My guess is he'll be 25ish in 2016, with a 10+% Walk rate. I definitely don't see him struggling though.

[RammyFanny]

Yeah, what made Schwarber so unique in the minors was to have that kind of power and OBP skills while not striking out that much.

 

Next year should be interesting for Bryant. He's always had video game .400 BABIP numbers in the minors because he crushes everything, but he still had a .380 BABIP in the majors last year. I know he will always be a big BABIP guy but .380 was 5th in the league last year and I get a little antsy.

[Tim]

 

This is basically what i would've replied if I were on a computer and not my phone. And complaining about projections being too low when they ultimately combine for a 95 win median team projection seems kinda silly.

 

Your last paragraph seems to ring especially true when our rookies came in as big league ready as their play showed last year. I wouldn't expect a lot of improvement and I would be more than happy if they were about the same as last year.

I'm expecting improvements from Russell and Soler. I'm not expecting Bryant or Schwarbs to get much better (and both could/should regress some).

 

So their rookie seasons will be their peaks?

This year.