Projecting the 2016 Cubs

[David]

And if their rookie years were their peaks, it shouldn't really surprise anyone (or necessarily be all that disappointing as long as it isn't a huge outlier season).

 

i'd be very happy if you told me kris bryant would have a career that more or less mirrored 2015 without any improvement. same with schwarber.

Edited January 25, 2016 by David

[David]

Yeah, what made Schwarber so unique in the minors was to have that kind of power and OBP skills while not striking out that much.

 

fwiw, his contact numbers in the big leagues last year need to improve.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=C/OF#platediscipline

[sneakypower]

According to NEIFI, a player evaluation and forecasting system developed by former Brewers manager of baseball research and development Adam Guttridge and licensed to MLB teams, Schwarber’s projected 2016 production per plate appearance ranks 13th among hitters who’ll be younger than 27 next June, slightly ahead of the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado. That’s particularly impressive given that Schwarber is the third-youngest player in the top 20, after Carlos Correa and (by two months) Miguel Sano. (Some chicken soup for the Cubs fan’s soul: Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant rank fourth and eighth, respectively.)

[wekse]

According to NEIFI, a player evaluation and forecasting system developed by former Brewers manager of baseball research and development Adam Guttridge and licensed to MLB teams, Schwarber’s projected 2016 production per plate appearance ranks 13th among hitters who’ll be younger than 27 next June, slightly ahead of the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado. That’s particularly impressive given that Schwarber is the third-youngest player in the top 20, after Carlos Correa and (by two months) Miguel Sano. (Some chicken soup for the Cubs fan’s soul: Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant rank fourth and eighth, respectively.)

 

http://media3.s-nbcnews.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Video/100224/tdy_rossen_actor_100224.300w.jpg

[NonProfitCow]

^^ Same on Bryant....I believe 2016-2018 Bryant is going to be an absolute monster.

 

Over/Under for Russell in 2016:

 

.260/.340/.440 / 15-18 HR

Way under.

 

...he says nervously while tugging at the collar of his shirt

Nah.

Russell is the kind of prospect/young player I can't get behind. Good, not great hitter in any way who I think is overvalued because they play a premium position. Think Baez has a better future.

[davell]

Way under.

 

...he says nervously while tugging at the collar of his shirt

Nah.

Russell is the kind of prospect/young player I can't get behind. Good, not great hitter in any way who I think is overvalued because they play a premium position. Think Baez has a better future.

 

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

[David]

Way under.

 

...he says nervously while tugging at the collar of his shirt

Nah.

Russell is the kind of prospect/young player I can't get behind. Good, not great hitter in any way who I think is overvalued because they play a premium position. Think Baez has a better future.

 

i love javy and i think you're insane

[David]

russell doesn't just play a premium position. he plays it at an elite level. and he just hit 13 HR in less than a full season as a 21 year old and his minor league numbers suggest there's still more to his bat. and he walks at a decent clip already too.

[NonProfitCow]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

[David]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

 

you can't get behind a prospect you think will put up a .275/.345/.460 at his best with neutral BABIP luck and play the most difficult position at an elite level?

 

the horsefeathers?

 

and i'll take the under on his peak being 4-5 years from now. primes don't really work that way anymore.

[NonProfitCow]

russell doesn't just play a premium position. he plays it at an elite level. and he just hit 13 HR in less than a full season as a 21 year old and his minor league numbers suggest there's still more to his bat. and he walks at a decent clip already too.

 

His minor league numbers really don't suggest that much more though. He's a 3 WAR guy thanks to defense his first few years, then offense after. Plenty valuable, just not a superstar.

[Cubswin11]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

No qualified SS but up an OPS better than .782 last year, so if you think his prime is .800+ you probably should be putting a lot of your chips on him.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Cubswin11

[David]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

 

or did you guys mean javy in this question?

 

if so, then that's even crazier

[NonProfitCow]

you can't get behind a prospect you think will put up a .275/.345/.460 at his best with neutral BABIP luck and play the most difficult position at an elite level?

 

the [expletive]?

 

and i'll take the under on his peak being 4-5 years from now. primes don't really work that way anymore.

In his age 22 season, no.

 

This started because I said way under on a .780 OPS in 2016.

 

I think he's a D heavy 3 WAR guy young, floating to O heavy in his career with a 5 WAR peak that I see him hitting at 25-26. No idea why that seems crazy.

[weis21]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

for reference, take a look at how Barry Larkin did as a 23 year old in his second year in MLB

[David]

russell doesn't just play a premium position. he plays it at an elite level. and he just hit 13 HR in less than a full season as a 21 year old and his minor league numbers suggest there's still more to his bat. and he walks at a decent clip already too.

 

His minor league numbers really don't suggest that much more though. He's a 3 WAR guy thanks to defense his first few years, then offense after. Plenty valuable, just not a superstar.

 

that's what he was as a 21 year old in the big leagues for the first time. his offense trended upward as the year went on. and he did that hitting 9th and not in a full season. hitting 9th had a decent sized impact on his ability to contribute offensively (and therefore up his WAR) as it limited his PA a good amount too.

 

 

sidenote - his offensive numbers were really solid vs rhp. i hadn't noticed his splits and .200 BABIP vs lefties last year. i can't imagine that he'll struggle that much vs lhp going forward.

[davell]

Curious.....What type of slash line do you expect he'll put up in his prime?

Prime?

 

.275 .345 .460

 

BABIP it up by twenty points each in a career year.

 

I think he's 4-5 years from a year like that if he does it though.

 

Thats fair. I'd say it could happen sooner though. The bat was fairly solid last year at 21 and only having 321 combined AB's higher than A+ ball. I think the learning curve will be much quicker due to him just needing AB's versus better pitching, in general.

[NonProfitCow]

russell doesn't just play a premium position. he plays it at an elite level. and he just hit 13 HR in less than a full season as a 21 year old and his minor league numbers suggest there's still more to his bat. and he walks at a decent clip already too.

 

His minor league numbers really don't suggest that much more though. He's a 3 WAR guy thanks to defense his first few years, then offense after. Plenty valuable, just not a superstar.

 

that's what he was as a 21 year old in the big leagues for the first time. his offense trended upward as the year went on. and he did that hitting 9th and not in a full season. hitting 9th had a decent sized impact on his ability to contribute offensively (and therefore up his WAR) as it limited his PA a good amount too.

 

 

sidenote - his offensive numbers were really solid vs rhp. i hadn't noticed his splits and .200 BABIP vs lefties last year. i can't imagine that he'll struggle that much vs lhp going forward.

You forgot to mention his BABIP vs RHP.

[David]

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/mlb-best-and-worst-starting-rotations-staff-mets-cubs-dodgers-nationals-mlb

[davell]

Best rotation and best lineup. Can't wait to see this dumb ass article tomorrow explaining why its a good idea to let Theo walk.

[David]

Best rotation and best lineup. Can't wait to see this dumb ass article tomorrow explaining why its a good idea to let Theo walk.

 

lol he's actually writing that?

 

pls just stop acknowledging that that idiot exists

[davell]

Best rotation and best lineup. Can't wait to see this dumb ass article tomorrow explaining why its a good idea to let Theo walk.

 

lol he's actually writing that?

 

pls just stop acknowledging that that idiot exists

 

I don't even follow him. The Watt guy mentioned it was coming tomorrow even though he didn't agree with it. That ones just so stupid I had to bring it up lol. But yeah, completely ignoring the [expletive] is the best solution.

[David]

Best rotation and best lineup. Can't wait to see this dumb ass article tomorrow explaining why its a good idea to let Theo walk.

 

lol he's actually writing that?

 

pls just stop acknowledging that that idiot exists

 

I don't even follow him. The Watt guy mentioned it was coming tomorrow even though he didn't agree with it. That ones just so stupid I had to bring it up lol. But yeah, completely ignoring the [expletive] is the best solution.

 

http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/27/the-case-for-not-extending-theo-epstein/

 

welp, here it is

[Aaron_Kennelly]

http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/01/27/the-case-for-not-extending-theo-epstein/

 

welp, here it is

 

So he thinks we should get rid of Theo because of an article he read in a magazine?

[David]

Not really projections, but CBS ranked Zorilla the 5th best 2B in baseball (tied with Panik)

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25463779

 

Tie-5. Ben Zobrist, Cubs

Zobrist is a consistently excellent performer, but a knee injury last year sapped some of his defensive value. If he's fully recovered and staves off age-related decline at the plate (the 34-year-old has shown no signs of it thus far), then take the over on this ranking. For now, though, caution is warranted.