Minor League Musings

[Bertz]

One thing that's interesting about Brennen from last year is that he was so clearly and unequivocally broken we will be able to clearly tell if/when he's fixed.  Last year his AAA Statcast numbers would have ranked like this in MLB:

15th percentile average exit Velo

28th percentile max exit velo

23rd percentile hard hit rate

82nd percentile chase rate (in the bad direction)

17th percentile in-zone contact rate

We unfortunately do not have public data from his 2021 stint at AAA, but you'd presume based on his production and prospect status he was substantially better than that across the board.  And probably well above average everywhere but contact rate.

If he's got like a .900 OPS on May 15th and we're wondering if he's back or if it's a fluke, we should be able to look under the hood now and have a very good idea.

[Jason Ross]

I think TT is suggesting is that there's really little reason to rush Brennen Davis to the MLB at this point. He really does need to show that he can finally blend quality with quantity. He's struggled with that since, if we're going to be real with ourselves, the Futures Game. He's had moments, but Triple-A has exposed him to not being able to hit high-hard stuff. That's pretty normal for guys with his body; he's a tall and lanky build and he has long levers...that's a typical weakness (Alcantara struggles with this too). Davis finally showed he could make contact a lot, but he traded that for all of his quality of contact.

Unless there's a pressing need for a corner, Davis needs a while in Triple-A to actually develop. He's missed the better part of the last two seasons. He's young enough he's not an entirely written off prospect, but he's struggled long enough that he has to actually prove it. Let him cook in Triple-A for a bit and prove he can both hit high-and-hard while gaining back some confidence before you just decide that despite not showing that ability at Triple-A for any extended amount, that he will just do it at the MLB level.

[Jason Ross]

Well, I think you're imparting how fans may interpret a full 2024 season in Triple-A versus how the Cubs internally would view this. I don't doubt that fans on twitter, reddit, and probably some here would discount any season Davis put up in Triple-A at age 24 due to his age. Personally, I think that's silly; plenty of prospects don't have success until age 24 at Triple-A and Davis has a strong argument due to injury, a lost covid-season and the like as to why age-24 would be "his year" finally. I also am confident the Cubs wouldn't. Let's not forget, we're one month removed from the Cubs trading Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope for 26 year old Michael Busch. 

Now, they may look past something such as a strong wRC+ (or a weak one) and spend more time concerned about processes (much like why I think despite the solid wRC+ the Cubs are seemingly less excited about Matt Mervis). But I don't think the Chicago Cubs would think that a healthy and productive 24 year old campaign in Iowa was not proving anything, either, based solely on his age the way some fans may.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would distill my point of view to this:

• The Cubs have competitive aspirations this year, and so even bench roles need to be for those best set up to contribute quickly
• Davis needs time in Iowa before I could consider him the best option for even a bench role
• While we can haggle about exactly how much time is needed to demonstrate his readiness, I need Davis to tangibly produce in Iowa to consider him a good MLB bench option.  Hitting fly balls and having solid EVs isn't enough if he's got a 92 wRC+ in a hitter's league.

[LBiittner]

Brennen Davis is currently in concussion protocol 

[LBiittner]

I hate him having another concussion. Counsell seems optimistic 

Edited February 29, 2024 by LBiittner

[Jason Ross]

58 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

These guys aren't tomato/tomahto. Busch has nearly 3000 PAs between college, MiLB, and MLB slashing .281/.403/.511, was even better last year with essentially a "perfect" AAA line, and is seen as (by FGs)  or near (everyone else) a bat only and most certainly bat first prospect. He also had no injury history. Brennen Davis is not covering that gap with a bulk season in Iowa *and* sees his speed and defense (skills Busch doesn't rely on) age.

---------

Alot of the gap seems to stem from some imagined suggestion that Davis shouldn't spend time in Iowa and should play regardless of what is happening. That is not the suggestion. The thinking is pretty straight forward, I believe: he's like 1000+ PAs in Iowa away from offering the kind of proof anyone's looking for, the next starting opportunity with the org may not open up until he's an unproven 26/27, MiLB doesn't have exclusive rights to player development (some of Theo's last words even), his trade value is gone as a MiLB, there's tons of cap value in even a bench player on a min salary, pretty much all dips in performance and status coincide with injury, his debut was expected years ago with with much less proof anyway, reports about his defense have improved during these down years, last year saw some bounceback in discipline and batted ball, a bench role is actually more in line with his workloads and resume even before the injuries, and whenever healthy he's one of the few players in the org who has even flashed a full set of tools and skills over time. What I'm most saying is pretty much exactly what I said to start: health and quality should take priority over forcing 500+ PAs on a player who has never done it and wouldn't quite benefit from it like we say he will now

This concussion situation doesn't help him out at all tho unfortunately

 

It wasn't a direct comparison, but the idea that the Cubs aren't going to look at an age-24 season and entirely discount it like fans are. There's a reason why Brennen Davis won't be a top-50 prospect next season, almost, regardless of whatever kind of season he has and Busch is. But I also don't think the Cubs are going to ignore anything he does because he's 24, as was alluded to.

No one should "force" anything, either, but the route to relevancy in Chicago in 2024 is not very likely. The first hurdle he has to clear is health, the second is showing that he's not only fixed, but improved on all of the issues he's had. He can't do that in 45 days barring some immense 45 days that we'd still have to wonder "how repeatable is this?". Then he has to clear the hurdles in front of him such as Mike Tauchmann who will be given first shot at 4th OF'er, Alexander Canario who's out of option years and ahead of him today, and Owen Caissie who's the better prospect and may be hitting well at Triple-A to even make the MLB roster in a way that will matter. For a player such as Davis who's basically been averaging roughly 50 games a season over the last two, the Cubs almost assuredly would rather he play versus sitting on the bench behind Suzuki and Happ. He really needs games, reps and the like. Being the 5th OF'er in Chicago is probably less interesting to the Cubs than him being the starting option in Iowa. 

It just a very long route for Brennen Davis to become Cub-relevant this season. Maybe it happens, but it probably requires a confluence of multiple injuries to others or high incompetence, plus Davis' health, plus Davis' progression. Any one of those at this point seems at best a coin flip, and all three seem unlikely. It's probably a better bet he's an option as a 4th OF'er in 2025 with a successful season, or even yet, he's a useful tradechip come July, than him really making any impact on Chicago Cubs on his own in 2024. I'm certainly rooting for him, it's just unlikely. 

[craig]

Brennen needs to play baseball and get some experience hitting healthy, and ideally have some success.  Give him a bunch of healthy AB's, and see if he can hit.  That's not going to happen sitting on the end of the bench in Wrigley. Let him play every day at Iowa, and see if he can hit.  Hopefully he will, he'll hit like a major leaguer, and he'll earn interest as a major leaguer or as a trade target.   

Tom, you view him as a good every-position defensive outfielder, CF included.  Is there analytics support for that?  Or your eyeball scouting?  I admit I'm very skeptical, especially the capacity to play CF. He is *SO* big, he just looks too big and slow to be a good defensive OFer.  Nor have I gotten the impression that he gets unusually good reads.  Hope I'm wrong, and that he gets some healthy opportunity to play some good OF this season.  

[craig]

Thanks, Tom.  Just wondering if you had any basis for your opinion.  So you think he can play CF, I think he's sub-par defensively in both corners and probably unplayable in center.  Just a forum to share opinions.  Neither of us have shared evidence that our views are correct or informed, and there haven't been many scouting observations on his defense since he filled out.  

He did play a couple of games in center only 2 seasons ago, and in 2021 he played almost a third of his games in center; even after his callup to Iowa he played 4 games in center.  So back in those days, his CF was evidently considered anti-awful enough to be a part-time minor-league CFer.  

Would be super nice if he could emerge as an average or above-average corner outfielder.  And probably lots easier to accelerate and run in the outfield if his back isn't cranky.  Would be fun if both defense and power and contact all emerged as major-league this season.  

[craig]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

...I’ve said and quoted all this before so a rundown: Pipeline had him as a 50 OF defender and CF competent, deferring to Crow-Armstrong, and FGs had him as a 45/50 RF last year. Pipeline’s generally been positive about the defense since the pandemic. Both Hoyer and Hawkins complimented the defense last ST. ....

Thanks.  That's some evidence.  A 45/50 in right seems pretty decent.  

[Stratos]

On 2/29/2024 at 11:13 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He had a 49 wRC+ in Iowa last year, we can be encouraged by some of the peripherals while also acknowledging that he was far, far off the level of someone we can reasonably expect to be an MLB contributor.  And don't mistake this as me saying Davis has to be chained to Iowa all year, I think he can leapfrog Canario(who I am not especially bullish on) fairly quickly.  But on a team with competitive aspirations, I think you need to make him show that he's back in Iowa before giving him sporadic playing time in MLB, which would be 1) bad for the productivity for that roster spot and 2) not great for his long term outlook.  

I think given his tools it's pretty unlikely that when healthy he's the sub-200 AVG. and .231 BABIP hitter he was last year in AAA.  We don't know exactly what he is yet or what his k% would be but he does have some power and looks healthy this spring.  I still like him as a prospect, it's the health that is worrisome not the talent IMO.

[Stratos]

On 2/29/2024 at 1:54 PM, LBiittner said:

I hate him having another concussion. Counsell seems optimistic 

Davis had a previous concussion?

[LBiittner]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

Davis had a previous concussion?

In 21, struck in face with ball, broken nose too

[Bertz]

Via Sharma 

Quote

 

Nazier Mulé was drafted in the fourth round in 2022 as a two-way player. The talented righty has yet to throw a pitch in professional baseball after having his debut delayed by Tommy John surgery late last May. Before that, Mulé intrigued onlookers at instructs with a fastball that was touching the upper 90s and a strong slider.

Mulé is now healthy and focused solely on pitching. His rehab is going well and he was throwing in the mid-90s recently during a session in the Cubs’ pitching lab. The hope is that he’ll be ready to pitch in games by May.

 

 

[Bertz]

Really good read.  Among other things Brown dropped his slider and is trying to focus on upping his changeup usage and movement

 

[craig]

On 3/13/2024 at 9:39 AM, Bertz said:

Really good read.  Among other things Brown dropped his slider and is trying to focus on upping his changeup usage and movement

 

That was a really good read. 

• Brown seems like sharp guy. 
• The decision to bag the slider is interesting and significant.  Guys often spend some time tinkering before settling in with what actually works for them.  Hopefully he'll eventually come out of the "tinkering" period and have the command to do well with his fastball-curve-change. 
• His command has been questioned.  But he acted like like his command has never been bad until last year after the injury.  Hopefully he'll be healthy this year, more consistent, and the command won't be that problematic?
• Asked about role, he said "starter".  That was expected, I think.  We'll see if beginning the year as starter lasts longer than it did last summer for Palencia and Little.  But man, given the age on Hendricks, Taillon, and how little remaining control the Cubs have on them and Imanage, there sure could be opportunities for internal rotation guys in the upcoming couple of years, *IF* Brown could justify getting a shot.  

[craig]

AZ Phil:
 

Quote

And I don't know what happened to Brennen Davis. He is not active with any of the groups at Minor League Camp. He was with the AAA Iowa group at some point a few days ago, but he is not in the Rehab group, and he has been replaced on the AAA Iowa group roster by Cole Roederer (who was moved up from AA Tennessee), and Yohendrick Pinango replaced Roederer at AA Tennessee (moved up from Hi-A South Bend). These move-ups would not have been made if it was just short-term LIMITED ACTIVITY or missing a few days while attending to a personal matter...

 

[PackLandVA]

Part of an upcoming trade???

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's possibly still feeling effects and needs to be shut down.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Starting to think there has never been a Brennen Davis.

[Rob]

1 hour ago, PackLandVA said:

Part of an upcoming trade???

I'd be surprised if he has much in the way of trade value. We may be signing a low-end free agent and need a 40 man spot.

[Bertz]

If the MLB club wants to hold onto more than one NRI they need to clear a 40 man spot.  And if Brennen still mostly looks like the guy from the last two years then he's pretty easily the most expendable guy on the 40.

[CubinNY]

well this sucks and I'm already weeping about my sleeper. 

Edited March 22, 2024 by CubinNY

[craig]

I think Keegan is an easy de-roster option, if they need a 40-man spot.  

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, craig said:

I think Keegan is an easy de-roster option, if they need a 40-man spot.  

I would agree Keegan would be the first to be dropped. Maybe AGAIN, something is wrong with Davis and they put him on the 60 day IL. That would also open up a spot.