Minor League Musings

[sneakypower]

Similarly, Caissie struggled so badly to start the year that it stretches my belief that he can earn a promotion and perform well enough to get past 2 more levels in 15 months.

yeah Caissie has 40 games of full-season league abject suckitude and now 11 games of great production, but it's obviously getting out way over your skis to assume the latter is who he is truly

 

if we see him hit the Bigs at any time next season that means he's hit like, his 90th percentile outcome

[craig]

There was reference last week that Brailyn might be able to pitch this year. Do we have a sense for what his health issue(s) have been? I know we've had reference to getting Covid, but not many young men miss 4 months or 16 months due to Covid. Obviously he's had other issues as well. Any insights?

[Named After Maddux]

There was reference last week that Brailyn might be able to pitch this year. Do we have a sense for what his health issue(s) have been? I know we've had reference to getting Covid, but not many young men miss 4 months or 16 months due to Covid. Obviously he's had other issues as well. Any insights?

 

Brailyn had myocarditis in his COVID case. It’s similar to Eduardo Rodríguez‘s case (he missed all of 2020). Certainly a bad case of this. You can still see inflammation in the heart several months after diagnosis.

[Bertz]

I have a tough time seeing a 1H 2023 call up for anyone who isn't at least performing well in AA now, so the Wicks and Canario timelines(while they have their logic with Wicks' advanced nature and Canario's 40 man spot) seem aggressive. Similarly, Caissie struggled so badly to start the year that it stretches my belief that he can earn a promotion and perform well enough to get past 2 more levels in 15 months.

 

While the team hasn't been the Padres, they've been fairly quick in promoting guys. If guys perform they don't tend to get more than 60-70 games at a level. Especially through Iowa. Bryant and Rizzo, who were both service timed, didn't even get 300 PAs at Iowa. Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber got less than 30 games.

 

So while the Caissie placement for example seems aggressive, I don't think it's that crazy. Guys get through two levels a year as long as they produce. Maybe it's 1.5 for the teenagers (Gleyber got nearly 100 games in High A before the trade). Even with his rough start Caissie's already a good game or two away from a league average batting line. Unless all his cold streaks are a month of .300-something OPS, he'll probably be in position to see Tennessee for a month or two this year. From there he'd likely be in Iowa next summer and from there Wrigley is imminent. It assumes he continues to hit but all of these assumptions are that the guys don't abjectly fail. Some will and their ETAs don't matter because it's N/A.

 

And yeah, the pitching development is firing on all cylinders right now. The question isn't anymore whether they're one of the smart teams it's whether they'll be able to continue pushing forward and reach the Tampa/Cleveland/Milwaukee tier.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Marquee will be broadcasting 39 minor league games starting 6/1. Iowa will have 18 games, Tennessee 6, South Bend 9 and Myrtle Beach 6 games.

 

[David]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[Regular Show]

 

I always enjoy his articles and I feel massive sympathy for Dr. Jazayerli. As bad as we have it as Cubs fans, it is SO much worse for Royals fans. They have a terrible President of Baseball Ops in Dayton Moore and a horsefeathering awful manager in Mike Matheny...

 

I know Frank Schwindel isn't the long-term answer at 1B for the Cubs, and I'm pretty sure Alfonso Rivas isn't the answer either (I do like Rivas and think he's a solid player). The Royals have two very good 1B prospects in Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto. Both of them made Fangraphs 2022 Top 100 Prospects list and I know Eric Longenhagen is a fan. Pasquantino is definitely ready to face MLB pitchers right now and his hit tool is pretty advanced. Pratto is the better defender at 1B.

 

I'm not a huge fan of 1B prospects in general or trading for them. And I'm not even sure if it's possible to trade for either of them, but the Royals might make a good trade partner down the road. Some of their young pitchers have stalled in their development and the overall outlook for the team does not look promising right now. I wonder if one or both of them struggle initially when called up, maybe then a situation might arise similar to what happened with Anthony Rizzo in San Diego a decade ago. Maybe the Royals decide to move on and the Cubs can capitalize and repeat history.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Best pitching prospect in baseball. Don’t waste pitching bullets in the minors:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s Hot Sheet for the hottest 20 prospects in baseball:

 

4. D.J. Herz, LHP, Cubs

Team: High-A South Bend (Midwest)

Age: 21

 

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 SO, 0 HR

 

The Scoop: It’s rather easy to label Herz the best lefty this season in the Midwest League as his 1.45 ERA is fourth on the circuit among pitchers with a minimum 30 innings, ranking just behind righthanders Joe Boyle, Gordon Graceffo and Gavin Williams. On Wednesday, Herz went six scoreless innings while allowing just a single hit, with no walks and 12 strikeouts. He sat 93-94 mph, touching 96 mph during the outing while mixing in his easy plus changeup and low-80s curveball with two-plane break. Herz is one of the Cubs top prospects and the rare lefthanded starting pitching prospect with above-average velocity and three average or better pitches. (GP)

 

Helium: B.J. Murray Jr., 3B, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 22

 

Why He’s Here: .529/.692/.588 (9-for-17), 9 R, 1 2B, 2 RBIs, 8 BB, 2 SO

 

The Scoop: A 15th-round pick in 2021 out of Florida Atlantic, Murray is a native of the Bahamas. While his power production is not typical of a corner infield prospect, he shows advanced plate discipline, above-average bat-to-ball skills and a knack for well-struck line drives and enough fly balls to avoid the groundball hitter, contact-first label. He’s split time between first and third base this season, but is truly a bat-first prospect. Murray currently leads the Carolina League in on-base percentage at .464—he’s walked in 16.4% of his plate appearances. Murray is an older college hitter in Low-A, but he is producing at such an advanced level that it’s worth taking notice. (GP)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Geoff Pontes, BA (in reference to his start last week):

 

Scott (Las Vegas, NV): Hello, How far off the top 100 is dj hertz?

 

Geoff Pontes: He's close for me personally. That last start the velocity was good on the fastball and he was showing that plus-plus changeup and two quality breaking balls shapes.

 

Kiley McDaniel:

 

There's also a list of arrow-up guys taking a step forward this spring. They're either moving way up in the Top 100 (Harrison might be second only to Espino on next winter's list), from off the list to on it, or from way off the list to in contention for it. They're listed in order of preseason ranking:

 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs (45+ FV)

Kevin Alcantara, CF, Cubs (45+ FV)

D.J. Herz, LHP, Cubs (45 FV)

[CubinNY]

Let's say that Alcantara continues on a torrid pace for the rest of this year and then again next year. Could he see the majors by 2023?

[Tim]

Let's say that Alcantara continues on a torrid pace for the rest of this year and then again next year. Could he see the majors by 2023?

Best-case, realistic scenario?

 

He gets a promotion & continues to mash in A+ the rest of this year.

Gets added to the 40 man

Starts next year at AA and mashes to start the year

Gets promoted to AAA in late May / early June and mashes

Gets late-season call up to Cubs by end of 2023

 

However, it's very likely that he hits a hiccup somewhere along the line that delays that timeline.

[muntjack]

Just browsing minor league leaders on Fangraphs, looking at BB/K and BB% for ARL guys and came across this freak:

 

Emmanuel Rodriguez (MIN)

 

19 yo OF in A ball. Came into the season as the 25th ranked prospect in the Twins org. 199 PAs.

 

28.6% BB (!!!) 26.1% K .272/.492/.551

 

That walk rate is unbelievable. And he's 19.

 

 

The twins are in 1st and could use a catcher....

[CubinNY]

Let's say that Alcantara continues on a torrid pace for the rest of this year and then again next year. Could he see the majors by 2023?

Best-case, realistic scenario?

 

He gets a promotion & continues to mash in A+ the rest of this year.

Gets added to the 40 man

Starts next year at AA and mashes to start the year

Gets promoted to AAA in late May / early June and mashes

Gets late-season call up to Cubs by end of 2023

 

However, it's very likely that he hits a hiccup somewhere along the line that delays that timeline.

I'm trying to will the Cubs into a generational prospect, I have visions of Dave Winfield in my head.

Edited June 13, 2022 by CubinNY

[CubinNY]

[JeffH]

All I want is for Mervis to magically become Jim Thome. Never mind that he's a 24 year old at AA and Thome is a HOFer who was in the big leagues at age 20.

 

Dreams are not reasonable.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

All I want is for Mervis to magically become Jim Thome. Never mind that he's a 24 year old at AA and Thome is a HOFer who was in the big leagues at age 20.

 

Dreams are not reasonable.

 

I'm hoping that he's aldi-brand Goldschmidt. Like Mervis, Goldschmidt was a college draftee that lasted outside the top 5 rounds(8th to be specific), then moved quickly with consistently strong offense but didn't turn the corner into elite peripherals until AA at age 23(Mervis at a young 24 thanks to covid). Goldschmidt showed better plate discipline on the whole but there's still a whole lot of useful outcomes if Mervis falls short of that standard.

[Bertz]

Two fun Matt Mervis facts:

 

1. He has an 1.154 OPS against right handed pitching this year

2. Steamer thinks he's already a league average hitter

 

At 1B more broadly, I would like to see the team be pretty aggressive in cycling through the 1B prospects in the org. Rivas is done, good to know. Now let's see Jared Young. Similarly it won't take long after Maldonado gets going that I'd like to see him come in for Schwindel. And so on. It's a good but not great 1B FA class coming up, which makes me nervous investing there. If we have the possibility of a ~115 wRC+ from internal 1B options next year, you don't even glance at the FA market. Let's find out if we can plan for that!

[Tryptamine]

When does DJ Herz get a bump up to AA? We're at 56 innings, between 2021/22, where he given up 28 hits, 14 ER, while striking out 86. I think it's time.

[sneakypower]

If we have the possibility of a ~115 wRC+ from internal 1B options next year

spoiler alert: we absolutely don't

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The 20 hottest prospect in baseball last week: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-baseballs-20-hottest-prospects-from-the-past-week-61422/?Position=&Keyword=?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email

 

2. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Cubs

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 19

 

Why He’s Here: .417/.481/.958 (10-for-24), 6 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 11 RBIs, 3 BB, 6 SO

 

The Scoop: A great deal of Alcantara’s week unfolded in a massive effort on Sunday afternoon. The outfielder, who came over to the Cubs from the Yankees in the Anthony Rizzo trade last summer, closed the series against Carolina by going 4-for-6 with a triple and two homers in the Pelicans’ rout of the Mudcats. Overall, the tooled-up outfielder has performed quite well in his first test at full-season ball, hitting .285/.371/.528 in 50 games this year. Alcantara was long known for his exciting upside. This year, he’s beginning to realize some of that potential. (JN)

 

10. Alexander Canario, OF, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee

Age: 22

 

Why He’s Here: .400/.444/.840 (10-for-25), 2 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 9 RBIs, 2 BB, 5 SO, 1-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: Canario understandably went through an adjustment period after being promoted to Double-A in early May, but he broke out in a big way last week. The 22-year-old outfielder racked up 10 hits, including six extra-base hits, in a span of three days at Biloxi. That included the game-winning RBI single in the ninth inning on June 9, a massive three-run homer that cleared the trees beyond the left-field fence on June 10 and the decisive two-run homer to lead Tennessee to a win on June 11. Canario has as much raw power as anyone in the Cubs’ system, and he showed just how dangerous he can be when he gets to it. (KG)

[Bertz]

 

Oof that doesn't look great. I do wonder if being able to spend the rest of the year on strength and conditioning isn't the worst thing in the world. You don't have to look any further than Kevin Made for a guy who shows the difference an offseason of physical maturation can make.

[CubinNY]

 

Oof that doesn't look great. I do wonder if being able to spend the rest of the year on strength and conditioning isn't the worst thing in the world. You don't have to look any further than Kevin Made for a guy who shows the difference an offseason of physical maturation can make.

Looks like Howard will have some buddies in the gym this offseason.